Simon Reed's curse strikes again!

tennis_pro said:
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/simon-reed/federer-kvitova-thrive-australia-154948901.html

he picked Federer and Kvitova for the AO, now we know who's NOT gonna win it
Click to expand...

71176_193726421090_8349741_n.jpg
 
Well, I don't see it being a curse, but the guy is an idiot. I like Fed's chances, and I'm a diehard Fedfan, but this sentence made me wonder if I should laugh or cry (about the fact that I don't have his job while I'm way more qualified even tho I can't play tennis). "Roger Federer has to be the favourite with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic close behind". How in the world is Federer the favourite? He also says 'has to be' as if it's not some personal feeling, but an objective measure which every reasonable tennisfan agrees on, in other words: like it's 2006 all over again.

I don't think his picks are unthinkable, but he acts like Federer should be a bigger favourite than Novak, which he CLEARLY isn't (just look at every betting site on the world wide web).
 
The guy is a complete jinx so Fed's chances are going south now. I don't remember Reed getting it right one single time.

Seriously, with a resurgent bad back and having just been blown off the court by Djoker he's expecting Fed to win...

But then again, it's Eurosport. Those are the guys who wonder what tennis players are doing the 48 weeks of the year when they're not in England.
 
Adjusted with recent performances, my top 4 favorites are:

1 - Novak

Needless to comment.

2 - Murray

Showed great form at Brisbane, has new motivation with Lendll on his team and has been in 2 straight finals in the Ozz in the last events.

3 - Federer

The back pain hurdle makes me think that his favoritism diminished, he can still do really well by reaching semis or even finals like he did in 2009 but winning will be a tough ask for Federer now I think.

4 - Nadal

His current worst Slam, he is coming from two straight quarter final losses and looked vulnerable in Doha against a competent top Gun on his game.

5 - Tsonga

Is in very good form as well as his wins in Doha indicate.

Edit: Included Tsonga. Don't see anyone apart from these 5 winning the Aussie this year, really.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I suspect that Federer will usurp Djokovic in 2012, and I expect the Swiss to come very close to his dominant best from four or five years ago.
Click to expand...

Yaaay ! Senti wants to haz it.
 
Nadal must be loving this. When is the last time Nadal was this bigger underdog? This despite making 6 of the last 7 slam finals! Nadal can't believe his luck....absolutely zero pressure on him this time. Last year's AO, he was going for THE RAFA SLAM.
 
Why does Federer "have" to be the favourite? He hasn't won a slam in 2 years now. Simon Reed is clueless.

In my opinion the favourites are Djokovic, Nadal and Federer and Murray in joint 3rd
 
Towser83 said:
Why does Federer "have" to be the favourite? He hasn't won a slam in 2 years now. Simon Reed is clueless.

In my opinion the favourites are Djokovic, Nadal and Federer and Murray in joint 3rd
Click to expand...

Rafa is a clear 4th favourite at the bookies - yes; I think it's strange too.
 
Rafa is great value at his current price. The only problem is he needs something to happen to Djokovic to win. He is still favorite over Federer or Murray in any outdoor match, especialy best of 5. He can maybe beat Djokovic on clay or grass still, but definitely not on hard courts.
 
Towser83 said:
Why does Federer "have" to be the favourite? He hasn't won a slam in 2 years now. Simon Reed is clueless.

In my opinion the favourites are Djokovic, Nadal and Federer and Murray in joint 3rd
Click to expand...

It's almost always based on general form before AO. A couple weeks ago Fed dominated everyone indoors so journalists will assume the same for him outdoors as well.

If Nadal had won Doha then suddenly he would be big fav to them.
 
Towser83 said:
Why does Federer "have" to be the favourite? He hasn't won a slam in 2 years now. Simon Reed is clueless.

In my opinion the favourites are Djokovic, Nadal and Federer and Murray in joint 3rd
Click to expand...

Yup, that's the order I would say as well.

Maybe bump Murray above Fed due to having Lendl in his corner and Fed's supposed(we don't know yet how serious) back injuries but then again Fed is a more proven player in the big stages of the slams (while Murray has a tendency to freeze up on that occasion) so hard to say.

Novak first and Nadal second is a no brainer though IMO.
 
NadalAgassi said:
Rafa is great value at his current price. The only problem is he needs something to happen to Djokovic to win. He is still favorite over Federer or Murray in any outdoor match, especialy best of 5. He can maybe beat Djokovic on clay or grass still, but definitely not on hard courts.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I have a great value on Nadal at local bookies as well, very tempting as I believe he has a terrific chance to win should someone take out Novak. Problem is though I don't know who can beat Novak on this surface in current form if he's healthy, at other slams he can be upset no doubt but at AO when inform his game is ridiculously good.

And as you said, I could see Nadal turning tables on Novak on clay and grass but not on HC, not at AO IMO.
 
Yeah I dont see anyone touching Djokovic here. However if he does go out I see Nadal winning for sure, unless Murray is much stronger mentally than in the past. Federer cant beat Nadal at any slam at this point other than maybe the U.S Open IMO.
 
NadalAgassi said:
Yeah I dont see anyone touching Djokovic here. However if he does go out I see Nadal winning for sure, unless Murray is much stronger mentally than in the past. Federer cant beat Nadal at any slam at this point other than maybe the U.S Open IMO.
Click to expand...

How much do you think Murray's chances to win have improved (if they have improved) given that he has Lendl coaching him now?

For me Murray's the biggest wildcard for AO this year, I know more or less what to expect from the rest of the guys.

Lendl lacks coaching experience and this is too small of a period to work on some technical overhaul of the game anyway but the intial mental boost might just be enough for Murray to break through and finally win a slam. This coaching relationship has the most potential out of anything else to make this AO interesting IMO.
 
namelessone said:
This guy hasn't picked the right winner since.... well never I think.

I don't normally believe in such things but this guy... he has talent :)

I just hope he doesn't bet, for his sake.
Click to expand...

No doubt about that, Reed is an absolute star. Still thinking of when he said that Verdasco was the future of tennis, back in 2009... :roll:

Seriously, if Federer can win despite this double jinx (Reed also said recently that Fed and Murray would sweep the slams this year, after he said just a few days before that there would be four different slam winners on the men's side, go figure) and his bad back, that would do a lot for his claim of GOAThood.

But I don't see how even the man with 16 slams can win against Mr. Simon "Nevergotitright" Reed... :D
 
zagor said:
How much do you think Murray's chances to win have improved (if they have improved) given that he has Lendl coaching him now?

For me Murray's the biggest wildcard for AO this year, I know more or less what to expect from the rest of the guys.

Lendl lacks coaching experience and this is too small of a period to work on some technical overhaul of the game anyway but the intial mental boost might just be enough for Murray to break through and finally win a slam. This coaching relationship has the most potential out of anything else to make this AO interesting IMO.
Click to expand...

Agreed. That and the draw, of course. There are a couple of dangerous floaters who might hinder the chances of one of the favourites, and the one who will draw Tsonga will have his work cut out for him if JWT is in the quarters.

Imagine playing Tomic + Raonic + Tsonga before even reaching the semis. Might be tough to beat two of the top four after that... ;)

Edit : in fact, the only thing that could make it worse for Federer would be for Wilander to also say that he is the firm favourite. No need for him to go to Australia in that case, I guess. It would be much more useful to just stay at home and nurse his back. ;)
 
Last edited:
Maybe this was answered somewhere else but here it goes anyway...
Where are Soderling, Berdych, Del Potro, "duracell bunny" Ferrer, etc??
 
Novak is the clear favorite. You could toss up the second favorite between Murray and Fed. Nadal is the fourth favorite.
 
Djokovic
Nadal
Tsonga/Murray
Federer

Downgrading Rog after the news about the back.
 
nikdom said:
Djokovic
Nadal
Tsonga/Murray
Federer

Downgrading Rog after the news about the back.
Click to expand...

Murray is never going to be a favorite in my eyes for a major until he actually wins one. He's disappointed way too many times and played like absolute crap all 3 times he managed to reach the final.

At first the Murray hype was quite funny but now it's turning into a bore.
 
tennis_pro said:
Murray is never going to be a favorite in my eyes for a major until he actually wins one. He's disappointed way too many times and played like absolute crap all 3 times he managed to reach the final.

At first the Murray hype was quite funny but now it's turning into a bore.
Click to expand...

This 'favorite' jargon is very imprecise. I listed the order in which I think a player has chances of winning the AO. If you pay attention, I listed his chances lower than Novak and Nadal.
 
tennis_pro said:
Murray is never going to be a favorite in my eyes for a major until he actually wins one. He's disappointed way too many times and played like absolute crap all 3 times he managed to reach the final.

At first the Murray hype was quite funny but now it's turning into a bore.
Click to expand...

I guess you must be surprised every time someone wins a slam for the first time.
 
nikdom said:
This 'favorite' jargon is very imprecise. I listed the order in which I think a player has chances of winning the AO. If you pay attention, I listed his chances lower than Novak and Nadal.
Click to expand...

It's not the point. Murray shouldn't be a top 4 favorite to WIN THE TOURNAMENT. He's still vulnerable to an upset and even if he reaches the final he can't win a set no matter who he plays.
 
kOaMaster said:
how many "new" people won slams the last 5 years?

and it was a surprise each time. therefore yes, I'd be very surprised.
Click to expand...

That's true. Murray, however, has been in the top 4 forever and still hasn't found a way to win. I guess Andy winning a major would surprise me more than, say, if Raonic or Tomic won one. New candidates for big titles usually strike fast.
 
tennis_pro said:
It's not the point. Murray shouldn't be a top 4 favorite to WIN THE TOURNAMENT. He's still vulnerable to an upset and even if he reaches the final he can't win a set no matter who he plays.
Click to expand...

Well he's the no.4 seed which follows the ATP rankings. Should the directors exclude all non-Slam winners from a top seeding if they haven't already won one? I guess that would just leave the top 3 plus Del Potro, Roddick, Ferrero and Hewitt as the top seeds in any Slam!

tennis_pro said:
He's still vulnerable to an upset and even if he reaches the final he can't win a set no matter who he plays.
Click to expand...

Anybody is vulnerable to an upset and just because Murray didn't win a set in his 3 slam finals doesn't mean that will continue to be the case in any future slam final he may play.
 
Mainad said:
Well he's the no.4 seed which follows the ATP rankings. Should the directors exclude all non-Slam winners from a top seeding if they haven't already won one? I guess that would just leave the top 3 plus Del Potro, Roddick, Ferrero and Hewitt as the top seeds in any Slam!
Click to expand...

I don't see a reason why Murray should be a bigger favorite TO WIN than, say, Raonic or Tomic. Obviously, he's the favorite against every player from the draw except the top 3 but as far as winning in the end goes, not a chance.

Mainad said:
Anybody is vulnerable to an upset and just because Murray didn't win a set in his 3 slam finals doesn't mean that will continue to be the case in any future slam final he may play.
Click to expand...

And why exactly that might change in the future? The top 3 is still there and going strong and I haven't seen anything new from Murray to improve in this matter.
 
Mainad said:
Well he's the no.4 seed which follows the ATP rankings. Should the directors exclude all non-Slam winners from a top seeding if they haven't already won one? I guess that would just leave the top 3 plus Del Potro, Roddick, Ferrero and Hewitt as the top seeds in any Slam!
Click to expand...

This.


If some people feel there is too much Murray hype, then there is too much anti-murray hype as well. If a top 4 player cannot be listed in the top 4 people favored to win a slam, I don't know who can be?
 
tennis_pro said:
I don't see a reason why Murray should be a bigger favorite TO WIN than, say, Raonic or Tomic. Obviously, he's the favorite against every player from the draw except the top 3 but as far as winning in the end goes, not a chance.
Click to expand...

So you REALLY think Raonic or Tomic who have never beaten any of the top 3 players anywhere or have ever been in a slam final could be considered bigger favourites to win the AO than a player who has beaten the top 3 many times and been in 3 slam finals? :confused:

tennis_pro said:
I
And why exactly that might change in the future? The top 3 is still there and going strong and I haven't seen anything new from Murray to improve in this matter.
Click to expand...

Beating both Djokovic and Nadal in HC finals last year for instance? If that's not sufficient, what exactly would you like to see from Murray to make you think he's got a chance to win the AO other than having already won it which becomes a pointless,circular argument and applies even more to the likes of Raonic and Tomic than it does Murray??
 
tennis_pro said:
hasn't happened a lot lately, eh?
Click to expand...

Not since 2009, no - were you surprised then? What about when Novak won his 1st - I mean he clearly wasn't among your top 4 favourites to win in 2008 because he hadn't won a slam - so who were your top 4 favourites at the AO 2008?
 
nikdom said:
This.
If some people feel there is too much Murray hype, then there is too much anti-murray hype as well. If a top 4 player cannot be listed in the top 4 people favored to win a slam, I don't know who can be?
Click to expand...

Spot on. The anti-Murray hype on here is far more tedious and baffling than anything of the pro sort!!
 
batz said:
Not since 2009, no - were you surprised then? What about when Novak won his 1st - I mean he clearly wasn't among your top 4 favourites to win in 2008 because he hadn't won a slam - so who were your top 4 favourites at the AO 2008?
Click to expand...

You're missing the point.

Djokovic made a huge improvement in results in 2007 compared to the previous years so he deserved all the hype. Then went on to win the 2008 Australian Open which wasn't a surprise at all. We all knew it would come sooner or later. Obviously, has been a top 4 favorite for just about (if not every) major since and now he's as close to a lock for a slam tournament since peak Federer.

Del Potro didn't even get the chance to be the favorite for the 2009 US Open, maybe 5th or 6th given his ranking and a final in Canada Masters a month prior. His win over Federer in the US Open final was a BIG surprise, if not a major upset.

Murray has been in the top 4 since 2008, he deserved to be one of the favorites for maybe 1,5 - 2 years. Not now. Not when he failed every single time, often mentally which means he doesn't have the right mindset to win majors. And in most cases you can't improve that. As I said, it either comes quickly, or you're gonna need a miracle later on like Ivanisevic to actually win one.
 
Last edited:
nikdom said:
If some people feel there is too much Murray hype, then there is too much anti-murray hype as well. If a top 4 player cannot be listed in the top 4 people favored to win a slam, I don't know who can be?
Click to expand...

The rankings are wrong!
All bar the no.4 are correct. He should really be ranked no higher than 20.
It's a disgrace, a scandal...
 
The real bookies favorites should look more like this:

Djokovic
(gap)
Nadal
(gap)
Federer



(huge gap)



Murray, Tsonga, etc....
 
Fedex said:
THE REASON BELOW IS WHY
Click to expand...

He's ranked just right, it's not his fault that the rest of the tour with minor exceptions sucks big time.

Doesn't mean that he should be a top 4 favorite...well maybe the 4th favorite but at 50/1 with the top 3 valued at 5/1 or better
 
I'd personally rank to win the title:
-Djokovic
-Nadal
-Federer/Murray

However, I'd rank Murray as second favorite to reach the final and not win.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Telepatic
All bow down to...
Replies
7
Views
1K
MarcusInKensington
MarcusInKensington
tennis_pro
Simon Reed strikes again
Replies
11
Views
2K
smoledman
smoledman
tennis_pro
For once Simon Reed is right
Replies
19
Views
3K
JGads
JGads
tennis_pro
Artful Roger building towards golden year
2
Replies
51
Views
5K
agentaviles
agentaviles
Sartorius
Simon Reed Strikes Back: "Murray the best in the world"
2
Replies
91
Views
8K
aphex
aphex
Back
Top