Since post-2011, Nadal is 6-2 vs Djokovic

[6-1 6-3 6-0]

Since the start of 2012, Nadal has gone 6-2 against Djokovic (including 3-1 in slams).

Nadal leads the h2h 8-3 in slams, and 22-15 overall.

Do you think this indicates that Nadal has completely turned the tide against Djokovic?

These are the matches they have played since the start of 2012 (thanks to Mustard):

2012 Australian Open F: Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal (5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5)
2012 Monte Carlo F: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-3, 6-1)
2012 Rome F: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (7-5, 6-3)
2012 French Open F: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-4, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5)
2013 Monte Carlo F: Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal (6-2, 7-6)
2013 French Open SF: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7, 9-7)
2013 Montreal SF: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-4, 3-6, 7-6)
2013 US Open F: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1)

 

[Mustard]

An excellent turnaround by Nadal.

 

[powerangle]

Since the start of 2012, Nadal has gone 6-2 against Djokovic (including 3-1 in slams).

Nadal leads the h2h 8-3 in slams, and 22-15 overall.

Do you think this indicates that Nadal has completely turned the tide against Djokovic?

These are the matches they have played since the start of 2012 (thanks to Mustard):

2012 Australian Open F: Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal (5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5)
2012 Monte Carlo F: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-3, 6-1)
2012 Rome F: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (7-5, 6-3)
2012 French Open F: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-4, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5)
2013 Monte Carlo F: Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal (6-2, 7-6)
2013 French Open SF: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7, 9-7)
2013 Montreal SF: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-4, 3-6, 7-6)
2013 US Open F: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic (6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1)

Too early to say. Nadal was something like 16-7 against Djokovic up through 2010. Rafa's domination overall in that matchup was thorough. Then in 2011 it was Djokovic 6-0 against Rafa, out of nowhere. Some could have said that Djokovic turned the tide completely around. Then we saw what happened...(Rafa turns it back).

So Djokovic could turn it back around again, just like Nadal did...who knows. That's the beauty of the sport.

 

[Mustard]

Nadal was taken completely by surprise by 2011 Djokovic. I don't think Nadal will be taken by surprise by Djokovic like that again.

 

[papertank]

The ball is in Djokovic's court now. Djokovic upped his game to an insane level and Nadal changed his game accordingly in order to start winning again. Can Djokovic wrestle the momentum of this rivalry back again?

 

[powerangle]

Nadal was taken completely by surprise by 2011 Djokovic. I don't think Nadal will be taken by surprise by Djokovic like that again.

Taken by surprise, but also due to Novak's insane level. I'm not sure Rafa would be leading 6-2 post-2011 if Novak had still been on his 2011 insane level.

Plus, some of the matches recently have been very close. Change a couple key important points, and the h2h post-2011 could be looking very different. It's all about that extra edge. If Novak comes back more refreshed in 2014 and can edge Nadal a bit at the key moments, he could very well take a more commanding lead in the future. Not saying that will happen...but it could. The margins are very small between them when both are playing well.

 

[bullfan]

Nadal was taken completely by surprise by 2011 Djokovic. I don't think Nadal will be taken by surprise by Djokovic like that again.

I think Nadal wasn't as prepared for 2011 as he should have been. I think he also had way too many outside commitments.

 

[Backspin1183]

Novak Djokovic 2011 wasn't a perfect tennis player but a big clutch one. He's still the same player with all those tennis skills but not the same confidence. Also a confident Nadal is a nightmare for his rivals.

I didn't expect this but since RG13, Novak's been a bit nervous every time he's faced Nadal. He starts leaking too many errors, DFs, and is not confident with shots, etc. Maybe Rafa's found a room in his Nole's head.

 

[powerangle]

Novak Djokovic 2011 wasn't a perfect tennis player but a big clutch one. He's still the same player with all those tennis skills but not the same confidence. Also a confident Nadal is a nightmare for his rivals.

I didn't expect this but since RG13, Novak's been a bit nervous every time he's faced Nadal. He starts leaking too many errors, DFs, and is not confident with shots, etc. Maybe Rafa's found a room in his Nole's head.

I agree. I think it's a both a bit of Djokovic coming down from his 2011 level (mostly mental) and Rafa upping his level. For all the talk of Rafa "figuring out" or solving the puzzle of Novak, I think Novak himself has been playing worse (mostly mental, at the big moments). I don't think Nadal would have "solved" Novak to the tune of 6-2 h2h if Novak were still as big and as clutch as he was in 2011.

If Novak were a bit more confident, he possibly could have swept Nadal this season, including victories, in addition to the Monte Carlo win, over Rafa at RG, Montreal, and US Open (the margins were that small).

 

[Mustard]

In 2011, Nadal openly admitted that Djokovic was in his head, and that it was a challenge trying to work out a solution to the puzzle.

 

[Hitman]

An excellent turnaround by Nadal.

Little did we know what kind of a turn around was about to take place next....

 

[Mustard]

Little did we know what kind of a turn around was about to take place next....

2014 with the back injury, wrist injury and appendicitis didn't help, and then the below par 2015 and 2016 years.

Nadal had to slightly change the way he played after this too, i.e. trying to shorten points, saving his running for when he really needed it.

 

[Hitman]

2014 with the back injury, wrist injury and appendicitis didn't help, and then the below par 2015 and 2016 years.

Nadal had to slightly change the way he played after this too, i.e. trying to shorten points, saving his running for when he really needed it.

I think Nadal's prime ended also after AO 2014. I think that back injury was it for him, he was never the same.

Have to ask you though, what kept Nadal still dominant against Djokovic on clay after this period where it went downhill for him, if Nadal was trying to shorten points and running only when needed. What are your thoughts, because despite a single loss at RG 2021, after 2016, he never lost to him on clay. Why is that in your mind?

 

[nolefam_2024]

What are you trying to get at? Djokovic was losing but was still at least won a set multiple times. 2019 he bad brutal schedule and played Nadal within some 14 hrs of brutal schedule. Still won a set. In Rome.

2021 was also the same and still won a set. In Rome.

2022 Djokovic was 1 pt away from pushing it to fifth.

Compare that to our dear Rafa who hasn't even taken a set from Nole in 9 matches on hc. Barely had setpoint in 1 match if I recall correctly.

 

[Hitman]

What are you trying to get at? Djokovic was losing but was still at least won a set multiple times. 2019 he bad brutal schedule and played Nadal within some 14 hrs of brutal schedule. Still won a set. In Rome.

2021 was also the same and still won a set. In Rome.

2022 Djokovic was 1 pt away from pushing it to fifth.

Compare that to our dear Rafa who hasn't even taken a set from Nole in 9 matches on hc. Barely had setpoint in 1 match if I recall correctly.

You're not getting the point of the question. @Mustard said Nadal changed his game to play shorter points and run little, which is the opposite of what really happens to win big on clay. The question was how did he still manage to keep winning so much on clay despite the changes.

 

[nolefam_2024]

You're not getting the point of the question. @Mustard said Nadal changed his game to play shorter points and run little, which is the opposite of what really happens to win big on clay. The question was how did he still manage to keep winning so much on clay despite the changes.

Technical superiority over Djokovic. Even though Djokovic was physically somewhat superior, let's not forget Nole was also shortening the pts, Rafa was far suitable for playing clay style tennis.

 

[Mustard]

I think Nadal's prime ended also after AO 2014. I think that back injury was it for him, he was never the same.

Have to ask you though, what kept Nadal still dominant against Djokovic on clay after this period where it went downhill for him, if Nadal was trying to shorten points and running only when needed. What are your thoughts, because despite a single loss at RG 2021, after 2016, he never lost to him on clay. Why is that in your mind?

Mostly because of the movement on clay (both the ball and the players' footing). Nadal on clay can make opponents more frustrated when they try to use power, which wears Djokovic down more relatively speaking. Nadal finds it easier to dictate like this while Djokovic finds it harder to use power to dictate. And when Nadal wants to use power, clay gives him all the time to set it all up compared to other surfaces, which I think was better still in the matchup against Djokovic.

 

[GabeT]

TTW has a knack for posting conclusions just about when the trends have changed

 

[nolefam_2024]

TTW has a knack for posting conclusions just about when the trends have changed

Would be massive loser in stock market game.

 

[Mustard]

TTW has a knack for posting conclusions just about when the trends have changed

Uh?

 

[GabeT]

Would be massive loser in stock market game.

Buying at the peak

 

[weakera]

You're not getting the point of the question. @Mustard said Nadal changed his game to play shorter points and run little, which is the opposite of what really happens to win big on clay. The question was how did he still manage to keep winning so much on clay despite the changes.

This is a very common misconception. Part of what helps Nadal excel on clay is actually his ability to win points quickly within 1-2 strokes of serving, whereas lesser players struggle without the ability to hit a big first serve due to the nature of clay. Here's some good reading for you,

Hard Courts v Clay Courts - Rally Length Differences

Hard Courts v Clay Courts – Rally Length DifferencesThe big two tournaments of the Spring hard court season, Indian Wells and Miami, are upon us. The day after Miami crowns its champion, we’re into the European clay court season with Monte Carlo the first ATP 1000 event.The old story of hard...

www.thefirstserve.com.au

 

[Hitman]

Technical superiority over Djokovic. Even though Djokovic was physically somewhat superior, let's not forget Nole was also shortening the pts, Rafa was far suitable for playing clay style tennis.

Mostly because of the movement on clay (both the ball and the players' footing). Nadal on clay can make opponents more frustrated when they try to use power, which wears Djokovic down more relatively speaking. Nadal finds it easier to dictate like this while Djokovic finds it harder to use power to dictate. And when Nadal wants to use power, clay gives him all the time to set it all up compared to other surfaces, which I think was better still in the matchup against Djokovic.

Yes. I would say also Nadal's anticipation on clay is second to none. Even in declined form, he can still read the game on that surface better than anyone.

 

[Hitman]

This is a very common misconception. Part of what helps Nadal excel on clay is actually his ability to win points quickly within 1-2 strokes of serving, whereas lesser players struggle without the ability to hit a big first serve due to the nature of clay. Here's some good reading for you,

Hard Courts v Clay Courts - Rally Length Differences

Hard Courts v Clay Courts – Rally Length DifferencesThe big two tournaments of the Spring hard court season, Indian Wells and Miami, are upon us. The day after Miami crowns its champion, we’re into the European clay court season with Monte Carlo the first ATP 1000 event.The old story of hard...

www.thefirstserve.com.au

Thanks. I will have a read.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Yes. I would say also Nadal's anticipation on clay is second to none. Even in declined form, he can still read the game on that surface better than anyone.

I don't think he declined on clay. When you get older, you have to adapt to win in other ways. Same thing for Nadal. Needed less adapting on clay than other surface anyway.

 

[Hitman]

I don't think he declined on clay. When you get older, you have to adapt to win in other ways. Same thing for Nadal. Needed less adapting on clay than other surface anyway.

I speak about raw foot speed when I speak of decline, he found other ways to stay ruthless.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Thanks. I will have a read.

It's probably faulty analysis. There is more analysis of how the average stroke length is not the best way to analyze surface variance. I agree that on clay nadal's early aggression is second to none. But it doesn't change the facts that clay is for grinders.

 

[Hitman]

It's probably faulty analysis. There is more analysis of how the average stroke length is not the best way to analyze surface variance. I agree that on clay nadal's early aggression is second to none. But it doesn't change the facts that clay is for grinders.

I'll give it a read.

 

[Mustard]

I don't think he declined on clay. When you get older, you have to adapt to win in other ways. Same thing for Nadal. Needed less adapting on clay than other surface anyway.

Between 2006-2013, it was a big deal when Nadal lost any match on clay. Not so much in later years, where the French Open was the big deal.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Between 2006-2013, it was a big deal when Nadal lost any match on clay. Not so much in later years, where the French Open was the big deal.

You are right. Nadal understood his body and peaked for slams. Even on clay.