Sinner has won so far every 'faster than average' tournament of 2024 he entered apart from Wimbledon. How often will he win there over his career?

How many Wimbledon titles for Jannik Sinner?

  • 0

    Votes: 2 10.0%
  • 1

    Votes: 2 10.0%
  • 2

    Votes: 4 20.0%
  • 3

    Votes: 5 25.0%
  • 4

    Votes: 3 15.0%
  • 5

    Votes: 2 10.0%
  • 6

    Votes: 1 5.0%
  • 7

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8+

    Votes: 1 5.0%

  • Total voters
    20
  • This poll will close: .

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Sinner has been holding over 91% of his serve this year, like no other, and on grass from 2022-2024* over 93% (4th) and 73% SPW (2nd). He is still on an upwards trajectory there.
On serve stats plus alone he seems to have a good shot at some Wimbledon wins but there is still the GOAT and a younger ATG with two titles around which have done far better than him.

Charlie had also clearly more success because he has broken almost at 26% (2nd) clip vs ±19% (11th) for Janni, while winning roughly 39% (2nd) of return points compared to 37% ( 4th*).
In breaks Sinner has clearly underperformed his RPW and a certain Djokovic (3rd). (*2022-2024, no players under 7 matches, against the ATP 100)

So the question is now if he will win a Wimbledon title, or even multiple ones...

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-10-14
Date​
Tournament​
Surface​
Ace%​
Surface Speed​
2023-11-13​
Tour Finals ( 23 F ) Djokovic​
Hard​
14.8%​
1.58​
2024-06-17​
Halle ( W )​
Grass​
15.5%​
1.35​
2024-02-12​
Rotterdam ( W )​
Hard​
12.6%​
1.30​
2024-07-01​
Wimbledon ( Q ) Medvedev​
Grass​
12.1%​
1.20​
2024-10-02​
Hard​
11.0%​
1.17​
2024-01-15​
Hard​
11.1%​
1.14​
2024-03-18​
Miami Masters ( W )​
Hard​
10.8%​
1.13​
2024-08-12​
Hard​
12.0%​
1.12​
2023-10-23​
Vienna ( 23 W )​
Hard​
10.7%​
1.10​
2023-10-30​
Paris Masters ( 23 W/O, R16)​
Hard​
11.5%​
1.09​
2024-08-26​
Us Open ( W )​
Hard​
10.9%​
1.06​
2024-09-26​
Beijing ( F ) Alcaraz​
Hard​
8.4%​
0.91​
2024-08-05​
Canada Masters ( QF ) Rublev​
Hard​
9.7%​
0.85​
2024-03-04​
Indian Wells Masters ( S ) Alcaraz​
Hard​
8.5%​
0.84​
2024-04-22​
Madrid Masters ( W/O, QF )​
Clay​
7.4%​
0.74​
2024-05-27​
Roland Garros ( S ) Alcaraz​
Clay​
6.7%​
0.69​
2024-04-08​
Monte Carlo Masters ( S ) Tsitsipas​
Clay​
6.1%​
0.62​

*the 23 results of the tournaments he should play still in 2024 are also highlighted.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Forgot the blended grass Elo of Tennis Abstract:

Elo Rank​
Player​
Age​
Elo​
gElo Rank​
gElo​
Peak Elo​
Peak Month​
ATP Rank​
Log diff​
2​
Carlos Alcaraz
21.4​
2203.8​
1​
2091.4​
2239.6​
2023-08​
2​
0​
1​
Jannik Sinner
23.1​
2287.3​
2​
2064.7​
2287.3​
2024-10​
1​
0​
3​
Novak Djokovic
37.3​
2193.9​
3​
2052.6​
2470.3​
2016-03​
4​
-0.29​
 
Last edited:

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Ok. So this year I did not choose Sinner to win Wimbledon and went with Alcaraz, despite Sinner's dominance on faster courts.


My reasoning is simple. Raz has proven himself, Sinner has not, at Wimbledon.

So as of today I can't guarantee Sinner dominates Wimbledon, but hopefully he will.

I am going with 1+ just to start small. It fits right into the 7+ expectations.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Best players to never win Wimbledon

1. Lendl - 2 finals
2. Wilander - won 3 AO on grass but not Wimbledon
3. Roddick - faced grass goat and lost 3 finals

Barely made it
1. Ivanisevic - won as a wild card
2. Murray - he turned 26 before winning Wimbledon
3. Andre Agassi - Pete was taken out by Goran. Boris lost from 2 sets up.

We can't assume that sinner will dominate grass surely. Need proof.
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
Sinner has everything to open his reign at Wimbledon, starting with the historic one, when it was still immature compared to the current version, let's remember that in 2022 he beat Alcaraz and was the only one in that edition to take Djokovic to the fifth set. The following edition (2023), taking advantage of a favorable scoreboard, reached the semi-final against a still luxurious version of Djokovic, losing 3-0 but the match was much more balanced than the final score indicated, Nole simply maximized much better than him the key moments of every single set. This year, first of all, it should be remembered that he won his first title on grass in Halle where there was an excellent scoreboard (definitely better than Queen's) with a surface that adapted (many aces/winning serves, short rallies)to the Hurkacz-style servebots (but Struff was also a perfect fit), and it was with the Pole that he played a masterful performance in terms of concreteness in the important points and solidity on serve in the final. Unfortunately at Wimbledon a series of contributing factors prevented him from at least getting to the long-awaited match with Alcaraz, starting with having found on his way one of the few versions of Medvedev in recent years where the Russian had found great incisiveness with the first of service, secondly the ailment that had afflicted him the night before the match which also left consequences on the pitch with that long medical timeout due to constant dizziness and afflicted by weakness.
 
Last edited:

GuyForget

Semi-Pro
Best players to never win Wimbledon

1. Lendl - 2 finals
2. Wilander - won 3 AO on grass but not Wimbledon
3. Roddick - faced grass goat and lost 3 finals

Barely made it
1. Ivanisevic - won as a wild card
2. Murray - he turned 26 before winning Wimbledon
3. Andre Agassi - Pete was taken out by Goran. Boris lost from 2 sets up.

We can't assume that sinner will dominate grass surely. Need proof.
one of Wilander's AO's not on grass, + Becker wasn't 2 sets up
 
I think this will be an interesting contrast. Not convinced about his long term superiority on grass, although I love his game there. Incredible ability to shift from clay to grass though.
I agree. Sinner will be favourite at AO and USO, Charles at RG and Wim. Now and then one will surprise and take the others pet slam.
 

GodlessEndeavor

Professional
I think this will be an interesting contrast. Not convinced about his long term superiority on grass, although I love his game there. Incredible ability to shift from clay to grass though.

Yeah, it's interesting how some aspects of Carlos's game work well on both grass and clay. Drop shots for example work well on both, for different reasons.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
So far Sinner has shown himself to be mostly a hardcourt specialist. He has yet to make a great impression on other surfaces (apart from Halle but no finals yet at RG or Wimbledon).
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Indeed. You don't take Novak to 5 sets in the first year you started winning on grass without having an incredibly high potential on it.
Do you think we will get our first Sincaraz major final at Wimbledon next year? If not Wimbledon, where and when do you think they will play their first major final against each other?

Going to be fascinating the first time this happens.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
So far Sinner has shown himself to be mostly a hardcourt specialist. He has yet to make a great impression on other surfaces (apart from Halle but no finals yet at RG or Wimbledon).

His numbers look very strong on clay and on grass too. Keep in mind that DR and TPW will generally suffer on grass as the serve is so dominant.

TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
73-6 (92%)​
25-8 (76%)​
9.9%​
61.7%​
79.3%​
57.8%​
91.5%​
71.1%​
28.2%​
40.7%​
55.2%​
1.41​
Hard
53-3 (95%)​
15-3 (83%)​
10.4%​
60.9%​
78.9%​
58.9%​
92.1%​
71.1%​
29.6%​
41.3%​
55.5%​
1.43​
Clay
11-2 (85%)​
1-1 (50%)​
5.7%​
62.0%​
78.8%​
54.3%​
88.1%​
69.5%​
32.6%​
42.9%​
55.5%​
1.40​
Grass
9-1 (90%)​
9-4 (69%)​
12.1%​
64.5%​
81.4%​
57.1%​
92.7%​
72.8%​
17.4%​
36.3%​
53.5%​
1.33​
Grand Slams
23-2 (92%)​
10-2 (83%)​
9.1%​
60.5%​
78.5%​
56.5%​
89.7%​
69.9%​
30.7%​
42.2%​
55.4%​
1.40​
vs Top 10
18-5 (78%)​
9-4 (69%)​
9.9%​
60.2%​
77.4%​
56.7%​
88.8%​
69.2%​
21.7%​
37.8%​
53.1%​
1.22​
vs Righties
67-6 (92%)​
21-8 (72%)​
10.0%​
61.3%​
79.3%​
57.5%​
91.5%​
70.9%​
28.0%​
40.6%​
55.1%​
1.39​
vs Lefties
6-0 (100%)​
4-0 (100%)​
8.3%​
65.7%​
78.8%​
62.0%​
90.9%​
73.0%​
29.9%​
42.4%​
56.8%​
1.57​
Best of 3
50-4 (93%)​
15-6 (71%)​
10.4%​
62.4%​
79.8%​
58.8%​
92.7%​
71.9%​
26.5%​
39.7%​
55.1%​
1.41​
Best of 5
23-2 (92%)​
10-2 (83%)​
9.1%​
60.5%​
78.5%​
56.5%​
89.7%​
69.9%​
30.7%​
42.2%​
55.4%​
1.40​
show yearly totalshide splits
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
His numbers look very strong on clay and on grass too. Keep in mind that DR and TPW will generally suffer on grass as the serve is so dominant.

TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
73-6 (92%)​
25-8 (76%)​
9.9%​
61.7%​
79.3%​
57.8%​
91.5%​
71.1%​
28.2%​
40.7%​
55.2%​
1.41​
Hard
53-3 (95%)​
15-3 (83%)​
10.4%​
60.9%​
78.9%​
58.9%​
92.1%​
71.1%​
29.6%​
41.3%​
55.5%​
1.43​
Clay
11-2 (85%)​
1-1 (50%)​
5.7%​
62.0%​
78.8%​
54.3%​
88.1%​
69.5%​
32.6%​
42.9%​
55.5%​
1.40​
Grass
9-1 (90%)​
9-4 (69%)​
12.1%​
64.5%​
81.4%​
57.1%​
92.7%​
72.8%​
17.4%​
36.3%​
53.5%​
1.33​
Grand Slams
23-2 (92%)​
10-2 (83%)​
9.1%​
60.5%​
78.5%​
56.5%​
89.7%​
69.9%​
30.7%​
42.2%​
55.4%​
1.40​
vs Top 10
18-5 (78%)​
9-4 (69%)​
9.9%​
60.2%​
77.4%​
56.7%​
88.8%​
69.2%​
21.7%​
37.8%​
53.1%​
1.22​
vs Righties
67-6 (92%)​
21-8 (72%)​
10.0%​
61.3%​
79.3%​
57.5%​
91.5%​
70.9%​
28.0%​
40.6%​
55.1%​
1.39​
vs Lefties
6-0 (100%)​
4-0 (100%)​
8.3%​
65.7%​
78.8%​
62.0%​
90.9%​
73.0%​
29.9%​
42.4%​
56.8%​
1.57​
Best of 3
50-4 (93%)​
15-6 (71%)​
10.4%​
62.4%​
79.8%​
58.8%​
92.7%​
71.9%​
26.5%​
39.7%​
55.1%​
1.41​
Best of 5
23-2 (92%)​
10-2 (83%)​
9.1%​
60.5%​
78.5%​
56.5%​
89.7%​
69.9%​
30.7%​
42.2%​
55.4%​
1.40​
show yearly totalshide splits
91.5 % hold is insane. Fed barely has it for 2/3 seasons.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
91.5 % hold is insane. Fed barely has it for 2/3 seasons.

The whole tour got better at holding so Fed still stands out in my mind. Nice to benchmark his last season against his career.

Like most great players his percentages go up in the grand slams. His record against Top 10 is a good illustration how improvement will create a margin of safety to enable a turnaround.

SINNER Career Tour-Level Splits Top

Split​
Win%​
Set%​
Game%​
TB%​
Hld%​
Brk%​
A%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
SPW​
RPW​
TPW​
DR​
Hard
78.5%​
72.4%​
56.8%​
68.1%​
86.3%​
26.9%​
8.1%​
2.6%​
60.1%​
75.4%​
55.0%​
67.3%​
40.0%​
53.4%​
1.22​
Clay
69.2%​
66.2%​
56.0%​
44.0%​
79.8%​
32.3%​
4.5%​
2.7%​
59.7%​
70.7%​
53.3%​
63.7%​
42.2%​
52.7%​
1.16​
Grass
70.0%​
64.9%​
54.9%​
52.4%​
88.5%​
20.7%​
9.4%​
2.9%​
60.2%​
78.2%​
57.2%​
69.8%​
37.4%​
52.7%​
1.24​
Grand Slams
77.2%​
71.1%​
57.3%​
64.7%​
84.8%​
29.1%​
7.1%​
3.1%​
59.5%​
74.7%​
55.1%​
66.7%​
41.3%​
53.6%​
1.24​
Masters
73.6%​
68.2%​
56.3%​
51.4%​
84.3%​
28.1%​
7.1%​
2.8%​
59.4%​
74.6%​
54.1%​
66.3%​
40.4%​
53.0%​
1.20​
Other Tours
75.7%​
70.9%​
55.8%​
64.6%​
85.7%​
24.9%​
7.8%​
2.3%​
60.7%​
74.6%​
55.1%​
66.9%​
39.2%​
52.8%​
1.18​
Best of 5
77.2%​
71.1%​
57.3%​
64.7%​
84.8%​
29.1%​
7.1%​
3.1%​
59.5%​
74.7%​
55.1%​
66.7%​
41.3%​
53.6%​
1.24​
Best of 3
75.3%​
69.7%​
56.0%​
60.4%​
85.3%​
26.6%​
7.6%​
2.5%​
60.3%​
74.7%​
54.7%​
66.8%​
39.7%​
53.0%​
1.19​
Finals
79.2%​
71.4%​
54.7%​
78.6%​
86.2%​
22.8%​
7.6%​
2.5%​
60.1%​
74.0%​
55.9%​
66.8%​
37.4%​
52.1%​
1.13​
Semi-finals
68.6%​
65.5%​
55.2%​
64.7%​
85.2%​
24.1%​
7.9%​
2.6%​
59.5%​
73.7%​
55.7%​
66.4%​
39.4%​
52.7%​
1.17​
Quarter-finals
62.7%​
62.1%​
53.2%​
63.6%​
82.3%​
23.2%​
7.7%​
2.8%​
59.5%​
74.7%​
51.7%​
65.4%​
38.6%​
51.7%​
1.11​
vs Righties
76.0%​
70.2%​
56.4%​
61.5%​
85.3%​
27.3%​
7.4%​
2.7%​
59.9%​
74.7%​
54.8%​
66.7%​
40.2%​
53.2%​
1.21​
vs Lefties
72.4%​
70.0%​
56.8%​
60.0%​
82.7%​
29.3%​
7.5%​
2.7%​
62.2%​
74.3%​
54.7%​
66.9%​
40.4%​
53.2%​
1.22​
vs Top 10
54.9%​
53.6%​
51.6%​
51.3%​
81.3%​
21.4%​
7.1%​
2.6%​
60.3%​
72.0%​
53.2%​
64.6%​
37.1%​
50.8%​
1.05​
 
Last edited:

Tano

Hall of Fame
His numbers look very strong on clay and on grass too. Keep in mind that DR and TPW will generally suffer on grass as the serve is so dominant.

TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
73-6 (92%)​
25-8 (76%)​
9.9%​
61.7%​
79.3%​
57.8%​
91.5%​
71.1%​
28.2%​
40.7%​
55.2%​
1.41​
Hard
53-3 (95%)​
15-3 (83%)​
10.4%​
60.9%​
78.9%​
58.9%​
92.1%​
71.1%​
29.6%​
41.3%​
55.5%​
1.43​
Clay
11-2 (85%)​
1-1 (50%)​
5.7%​
62.0%​
78.8%​
54.3%​
88.1%​
69.5%​
32.6%​
42.9%​
55.5%​
1.40​
Grass
9-1 (90%)​
9-4 (69%)​
12.1%​
64.5%​
81.4%​
57.1%​
92.7%​
72.8%​
17.4%​
36.3%​
53.5%​
1.33​
Grand Slams
23-2 (92%)​
10-2 (83%)​
9.1%​
60.5%​
78.5%​
56.5%​
89.7%​
69.9%​
30.7%​
42.2%​
55.4%​
1.40​
vs Top 10
18-5 (78%)​
9-4 (69%)​
9.9%​
60.2%​
77.4%​
56.7%​
88.8%​
69.2%​
21.7%​
37.8%​
53.1%​
1.22​
vs Righties
67-6 (92%)​
21-8 (72%)​
10.0%​
61.3%​
79.3%​
57.5%​
91.5%​
70.9%​
28.0%​
40.6%​
55.1%​
1.39​
vs Lefties
6-0 (100%)​
4-0 (100%)​
8.3%​
65.7%​
78.8%​
62.0%​
90.9%​
73.0%​
29.9%​
42.4%​
56.8%​
1.57​
Best of 3
50-4 (93%)​
15-6 (71%)​
10.4%​
62.4%​
79.8%​
58.8%​
92.7%​
71.9%​
26.5%​
39.7%​
55.1%​
1.41​
Best of 5
23-2 (92%)​
10-2 (83%)​
9.1%​
60.5%​
78.5%​
56.5%​
89.7%​
69.9%​
30.7%​
42.2%​
55.4%​
1.40​
show yearly totalshide splits
He has won on the indoor hard courts of Turin but can he do it on the clay of Rome?
His level on clay until now is far from that of someone who aims to win on all surfaces, but he is still very young, so we can give him the benefit of the doubt.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
He has won on the indoor hard courts of Turin but can he do it on the clay of Rome?
His level on clay until now is far from that of someone who aims to win on all surfaces, but he is still very young, so we can give him the benefit of the doubt.

True but I see similarities with the stats before his breakout on hardcourt. I posted a lot of simple tables which indicated that his performance level was much higher than the results suggested. Jannik has been undervalued a great deal in many areas, few would know that he is incredibly efficient at the net.°

Four years ago he looked like a clay courter, big groundstrokes but a weak serve but as a later-grower he was years behind physically*. Now he has likely the best backhand on clay and certainly one of the best forehand and serve far better and moves very well. Extremely unlikely that he won’t win quite a few important titles on the red.

°He is very similar to Rafa in this regard. Very humble but if you look at the stats…

*Draper was also handicapped by it.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Sinner has now indeed won every 'fast' tournament he entered apart from Wimbledon. A great shame that he couldn't play the OG in Paris, the fastest clay tournament among the big. The victories on the fast courts of Riyadh (S6K) and Malaga (DC) aren't included in this list.

Dubai could make sense next year...

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-10-14
Date​
Tournament​
Surface​
Surface Speed​
2024-11-11​
Tour Finals ( W )​
Hard​
1.37​
2024-06-17​
Halle ( W )​
Grass​
1.35​
2024-02-12​
Rotterdam ( W )​
Hard​
1.30​
2024-07-01​
Wimbledon ( Q ) Medvedev​
Grass​
1.20​
2024-10-02​
Hard​
1.17​
2024-01-15​
Hard​
1.14​
2024-03-18​
Miami Masters ( W )​
Hard​
1.13​
2024-08-12​
Hard​
1.12​
2023-10-23​
Vienna ( 23 W )​
Hard​
1.10​
2023-10-30​
Paris Masters ( 23 W/O, R16)​
Hard​
1.09​
2024-08-26​
Us Open ( W )​
Hard​
1.06​
2024-09-26​
Beijing ( F ) Alcaraz​
Hard​
0.91​
2024-08-05​
Canada Masters ( QF ) Rublev​
Hard​
0.85​
2024-03-04​
Indian Wells Masters ( S ) Alcaraz​
Hard​
0.84​
2024-04-22​
Madrid Masters ( W/O, QF )​
Clay​
0.74​
2024-05-27​
Roland Garros ( S ) Alcaraz​
Clay​
0.69​
2024-04-08​
Monte Carlo Masters ( S ) Tsitsipas​
Clay​
0.62​
 
Last edited:

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Sinner has now indeed won every 'fast' tournament he entered apart from Wimbledon. A great shame that he couldn't play the the OG in Paris, the fastest clay tournament among the big.

Dubai could make sense next year...

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-10-14
Date​
Tournament​
Surface​
Ace%​
Surface Speed​
2024-11-11​
Tour Finals ( W )​
Hard​
13.4%​
1.37​
2024-06-17​
Halle ( W )​
Grass​
15.5%​
1.35​
2024-02-12​
Rotterdam ( W )​
Hard​
12.6%​
1.30​
2024-07-01​
Wimbledon ( Q ) Medvedev​
Grass​
12.1%​
1.20​
2024-10-02​
Hard​
11.0%​
1.17​
2024-01-15​
Hard​
11.1%​
1.14​
2024-03-18​
Miami Masters ( W )​
Hard​
10.8%​
1.13​
2024-08-12​
Hard​
12.0%​
1.12​
2023-10-23​
Vienna ( 23 W )​
Hard​
10.7%​
1.10​
2023-10-30​
Paris Masters ( 23 W/O, R16)​
Hard​
11.5%​
1.09​
2024-08-26​
Us Open ( W )​
Hard​
10.9%​
1.06​
2024-09-26​
Beijing ( F ) Alcaraz​
Hard​
8.4%​
0.91​
2024-08-05​
Canada Masters ( QF ) Rublev​
Hard​
9.7%​
0.85​
2024-03-04​
Indian Wells Masters ( S ) Alcaraz​
Hard​
8.5%​
0.84​
2024-04-22​
Madrid Masters ( W/O, QF )​
Clay​
7.4%​
0.74​
2024-05-27​
Roland Garros ( S ) Alcaraz​
Clay​
6.7%​
0.69​
2024-04-08​
Monte Carlo Masters ( S ) Tsitsipas​
Clay​
6.1%​
0.62​
@Pheasant you said about 12% ace rate. He is slowly creeping past 10 now. 12+ on fastest courts.
 

jackson vile

G.O.A.T.
0-1, Carlos is way too good there. At this rate Carlos will become grass goat. Might pull out something crazy at the FO as well and shock us all.

The issue for Carlos will be to take after Novak and stay as injury free as possible. Injuries have taken so much from so many players…
 

TennisD

Professional
3 seems right - he'll almost certainly have to go through Alcaraz every time, and I feel like CA will ultimately emerge as the dominant grass-courter of the generation, but there are also a larger pool of other players would could threaten both of them. Not every year, mind you, but enough to keep their overall victory totals at Wimbledon relatively modest. I predict Sinner wins 3 and Alcaraz ends up with 5 by the time they're both done.
 

Pheasant

Legend
@Pheasant you said about 12% ace rate. He is slowly creeping past 10 now. 12+ on fastest courts.
That's a good memory that you have. Yes, I figured that he could peak for a few seasons with a 12% ace rate. He's got a very live arm. And he's got time to strengthen his legs and trunk area to help add another 5-7 mph to his service speed. Once he does that, he'll be serving in the 130s quite often and with good accuracy too. He's just getting warmed up.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Sorry to tell you this but the ship has sailed for Berrettini.

He had his chances 3 years ago and I doubt he will get a better opportunity.
Matteo can still get another opportunity. Unlike Kyrgios, he actually won his semifinal.

And he has won Queens in 2023 just 1 year ago. So again, another instance of "member has no clue but keeps talking".
 
Sinner is for sure the most one-dimensional #1 if all-time, and he's praying that Alcaraz never matures into a disciplined hardcourter!
Sinner lacks the weapons and lacks the athleticism to beat Alcaraz at slams :)
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
That's a good memory that you have. Yes, I figured that he could peak for a few seasons with a 12% ace rate. He's got a very live arm. And he's got time to strengthen his legs and trunk area to help add another 5-7 mph to his service speed. Once he does that, he'll be serving in the 130s quite often and with good accuracy too. He's just getting warmed up.

I think he is now around 12% on faster hardcourt. 10.4% on hard and 9.9% on all surfaces over the year. As the serve improves most with age I always like to look how many younger players have a higher ace percentage.

Out of 22 players ahead of him in hardcourt ace% only Perricard, Mensik and Shelton are markedly younger while Draper, Nakashima and Lehecka were born the same year.

Given he was a grew very late and his height a 12% ace percentage on hardcourt shouldn’t be impossible in a couple of years.

RkPlayer
Ace%​
1stIn​
1st%​
Hld%​
31Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard [FRA]
24.4%​
61.1%​
81.7%​
90.1%​
16Hubert Hurkacz [POL]
15.3%​
62.1%​
78.8%​
88.8%​
33Alexander Bublik [KAZ]
13.9%​
59.4%​
76.1%​
78.2%​
34Matteo Berrettini [ITA]
13.0%​
65.5%​
76.7%​
86.5%​
48Jakub Mensik [CZE]
12.7%​
59.7%​
75.0%​
82.1%​
40Tallon Griekspoor [NED]
12.5%​
65.8%​
76.6%​
86.0%​
4Taylor Fritz [USA]
12.5%​
61.5%​
76.9%​
88.0%​
24Alexei Popyrin [AUS]
12.4%​
62.2%​
76.2%​
85.6%​
35Nicolas Jarry [CHI]
12.2%​
62.6%​
77.6%​
82.6%​
38Brandon Nakashima [USA]
12.1%​
66.5%​
74.4%​
87.3%​
22Sebastian Korda [USA]
11.9%​
60.0%​
74.7%​
81.6%​
23Alejandro Tabilo [CHI]
11.9%​
63.6%​
75.2%​
82.6%​
29Felix Auger Aliassime [CAN]
11.7%​
62.1%​
74.1%​
82.7%​
21Ben Shelton [USA]
11.6%​
69.6%​
76.0%​
89.2%​
10Grigor Dimitrov [BUL]
11.6%​
62.1%​
80.5%​
87.5%​
2Alexander Zverev [GER]
11.4%​
70.6%​
76.2%​
90.3%​
8Andrey Rublev [RUS]
11.3%​
62.3%​
77.1%​
87.6%​
28Jiri Lehecka [CZE]
10.9%​
61.2%​
74.7%​
82.9%​
42Jan Lennard Struff [GER]
10.8%​
59.3%​
76.3%​
82.4%​
19Karen Khachanov [RUS]
10.5%​
64.1%​
74.7%​
82.7%​
18Frances Tiafoe [USA]
10.4%​
58.3%​
75.0%​
82.9%​
15Jack Draper [GBR]
10.4%​
57.9%​
76.9%​
83.9%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
10.4%​
60.8%​
79.0%​
92.1%​
 
Last edited:

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
An oldish graph by Jeff Sackmann.
height-ace.png


Sinner being more aggressive with his first serve than the average player makes perfect sense given his second serve strength. Source: Topspin blog.

matteo1.png


His great follow-up makes it easier to keep his DF below average by risking less.

matteo2.png
 
Last edited:

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
First we have to understand why he hasn‘t done well at Wimbledon. I don’t watch him enough to make guesses. Does he not move well on grass? Does he not like low, skidding bounces during the first week? By the second week, it is more like a slightly lower bouncing clay court especially when it is hot and does that suit Alcaraz/Djokovic better as they are the recent winners of Wimbledon and Roland Garros.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
When you are saying not well then you must quantify.
2 losses vs 7 time Wimbledon winner Djokovic and 1 loss vs Medvedev in fifth where his body broke down are hardly not well. This is better than what Djokovic did at similar age between 2008 to 2010. And Murray did between 2008 to 2010. And these two have won 9 of 11 wimbledons between 2011 to 2022.

First we have to understand why he hasn‘t done well at Wimbledon. I don’t watch him enough to make guesses. Does he not move well on grass? Does he not like low, skidding bounces during the first week? By the second week, it is more like a slightly lower bouncing clay court especially when it is hot and does that suit Alcaraz/Djokovic better as they are the recent winners of Wimbledon and Roland Garros.

Sinner is ahead of both Djokovic and Andy Murray at Wimbledon age to age. Murray did not make a final until 2012 when he was aged 25. Djokovic until he was 24.
 

dking68

Legend
20-6 on grass for those 3 years for Djokovic
19-3 for Murray with 1 W/O or could be 19-4
24-5 for Sinner in last 3 years

Sinner has 83% win rate on grass in last 3 years. And 80% at Wimbledon due to running into Djokovic.
If they meet at Wimbledon, Sinner is going to beat him and beat him badly. I don’t see Dj beating Sinner a third time there
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Sinner has won AO again which is faster than average so the streak continues.

Indeed it does:

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2025-01-27
Date​
Tournament​
Surface​
Ace%​
Surface Speed​
2025-01-13​
Hard​
10.7%​
1.11​

Since the ATP finals 2023 he has won every tournament faster than average that he enter bar one - Wimbledon. Doha was (very) slow, IW as well, so this streak should continue until Miami.

Alcaraz should be favored by the court speed of the next two events.
 
Last edited:

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Indeed it does:

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2025-01-27
Date​
Tournament​
Surface​
Ace%​
Surface Speed​
2025-01-13​
Hard​
10.7%​
1.11​

Since the ATP finals 2023 he has won every tournament faster than average that he enter bar one - Wimbledon. Doha was (very) slow, IW as well, so this streak should continue until Miami.
Thank God nole won that one at least.
 
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