Sinner vs Fed by age 23 and Alcaraz vs Rafa by age 21

[Pheasant]

If Sinner and Alcaraz have a Fedal type of rivalry, then I'm all for it. Except for this time, I don't care who wins. I just want it to be close. So as long as they deliver the goods, then this rivalry has the ability to be more enjoyable for me, since I won't be disappointed by who wins these matches.

And I'm not in the least bit worried if some more records are broken. I've already moved way past that. It's simply time to move on. And these two players look extremely promising.

That said, the numbers so far back Federer over Sinner through their age-23 seasons. But let's see what the future brings. However, the numbers back Alcaraz over Nadal(close) and over Fed(by a country mile) so far at the same age.

 

[SonnyT]

Fedal was dominated by either Nadal (begin-14) or Federer (14-end)! Most of the time, either one was going to dominate the other!

 

[Mustard]

The Nadal vs. Federer rivalry was big even before they were meeting each other regularly, i.e. in 2005, when Nadal won 1 major and 4 masters, 11 tournaments overall and a 79-10 win-loss record, and Federer won 2 majors and 4 masters, 11 tournaments overall and an 81-4 win-loss record. Amidst all their 2005 successes, they only met each other twice in 2005, in the final of Key Biscayne and in the semi final of the French Open. That was an extraordinary year by both.

In 2006, the personal head-to-head heated up. Federer widened his lead as number 1 in the rankings, but Nadal was becoming a personal nemesis, beating Federer 4 times in a row in 2006. Federer only had 5 losses in 2006 in total.

Alcaraz vs. Sinner is nowhere near this.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Fedal was dominated by either Nadal (begin-14) or Federer (14-end)! Most of the time, either one was going to dominate the other!

Fedal was no rivalry once Nadal turned 22. He dominated Fed very very bad. It was a joke at one pt. 23-10

 

[Mustard]

Fedal was no rivalry once Nadal turned 22. He dominated Fed very very bad. It was a joke at one pt. 23-10

Nadal once led Djokovic 14-4.

 

[Rovesciarete]

by age 23​	vs Top5​	T5 Weight​	vs Top10​	T10 Weight​	vs T11+​	T11+ Weight​	vs All​
Sinner​	43 (19-24) 44.19%​	12.84%​	66 (34-32) 51.52%​	19.70%​	269 (221-48) 82.16%​	80.30%​	335 (255-80) 76.12%​
Fed​	34 (24-10) 70.59%​	7.98%​	74 (46-28) 62.16%​	17.37%​	352 (264-88) 75.00%​	82.63%​	426 (310-116) 72.77%​

by age 21​	vs Top5​	T5 Weight​	vs Top10​	T10 Weight​	vs T11+​	T11+ Weight​	vs All​
Alcaraz​	30 (20-10) 66.67%​	11.58%​	52 (34-18) 65.38%​	20.08%​	207 (172-35) 83.09%​	79.92%​	259 (206-53) 79.54%​
Rafa​	28 (18-10) 64.29%​	8.78%​	46 (30-16) 65.22%​	14.42%​	273 (223-50) 81.68%​	85.58%​	319 (253-66) 79.31%​

That is actually a very neat observation enabled by a simple comparison. I would only add that Rafa might have a heavier T10 weight than shown due to the existence of strong dirtballlers which were 'under-ranked' overall.

Sinner was also burdened by the frozen rankings which forced him to play a surprising amount against Nadal, Djokovic, Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev earlier than he ought to have. Heavily under-ranked and under-pointed compared to his Elo and total point win percentages!

This fooled quite a few people here.

P.S: Federer really found a patchy top field growing up and I say that as an old Fed fan. Huge talent armed with newish tech and tactical adaption to it. Worked so well that he didn't adjust quickly enough to the new yellow wave.

 

[Neptune]

That is actually a very neat observation enabled by a simple comparison. I would only add that Rafa might have a heavier T10 weight than shown due to the existence of strong dirtballlers which were 'under-ranked' overall.

The clay is minor surface compared to hard courts the main surface where most ranking points are earned. As a result, rankings correlate more closely with hard court performance and less with clay. Some clay specialists are 'under-ranked,' while some top hard court players are 'over-ranked' on clay, a tradeoff.
Grass is a specialized surface, and rankings correlate even less with grass performance since it contributes the fewest ranking points.
Perhaps only surface-specific Elo or rankings could resolve this issue.

 

[Neptune]

Updated after tour finals. What's going on with the top10 esp. top5 in Fedal's early years?

by age 23​	vs Top5​	T5 Weight​	vs Top10​	T10 Weight​	vs T11+​	T11+ Weight​	vs All​
Sinner​	46 (22-24) 47.83%​	13.53%​	71 (39-32) 54.93%​	20.88%​	269 (221-48) 82.16%​	79.12%​	340 (260-80) 76.47%​
Fed​	34 (24-10) 70.59%​	7.98%​	74 (46-28) 62.16%​	17.37%​	352 (264-88) 75.00%​	82.63%​	426 (310-116) 72.77%​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
by age 21​	vs Top5​	T5 Weight​	vs Top10​	T10 Weight​	vs T11+​	T11+ Weight​	vs All​
Alcaraz​	31 (20-11) 64.52%​	11.74%​	55 (35-20) 63.64%​	20.83%​	209 (173-36) 82.78%​	79.17%​	264 (208-56) 78.79%​
Rafa​	28 (18-10) 64.29%​	8.78%​	46 (30-16) 65.22%​	14.42%​	273 (223-50) 81.68%​	85.58%​	319 (253-66) 79.31%​

 

[GRASScaraz]

Updated after tour finals. What's going on with the top10 esp. top5 in Fedal's early years?

by age 23​	vs Top5​	T5 Weight​	vs Top10​	T10 Weight​	vs T11+​	T11+ Weight​	vs All​
Sinner​	46 (22-24) 47.83%​	13.53%​	71 (39-32) 54.93%​	20.88%​	269 (221-48) 82.16%​	79.12%​	340 (260-80) 76.47%​
Fed​	34 (24-10) 70.59%​	7.98%​	74 (46-28) 62.16%​	17.37%​	352 (264-88) 75.00%​	82.63%​	426 (310-116) 72.77%​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
by age 21​	vs Top5​	T5 Weight​	vs Top10​	T10 Weight​	vs T11+​	T11+ Weight​	vs All​
Alcaraz​	31 (20-11) 64.52%​	11.74%​	55 (35-20) 63.64%​	20.83%​	209 (173-36) 82.78%​	79.17%​	264 (208-56) 78.79%​
Rafa​	28 (18-10) 64.29%​	8.78%​	46 (30-16) 65.22%​	14.42%​	273 (223-50) 81.68%​	85.58%​	319 (253-66) 79.31%​

Fedr destroyed Top 10, Sinner struggled

 

[DSH]

It was embarrassing that Alcaraz couldn't defeat the 37-year-old Djokovic on clay.
Nadal, at the same age as Alcaraz, would not have lost more than 6 games against that version of Djokovic.

Nadal of 2007 would have humiliated 37-year-old Djokovic 62, 61 and shattered his Olympic dream.

 

[duaneeo]

Fed was way better than Sinner at 23, why is this a comparison?

Exactly. Djokovic at 23 is the better comparison to Sinner.

 

[zakopinjo]

Nadal of 2007 would have humiliated 37-year-old Djokovic 62, 61 and shattered his Olympic dream.

Novak 2011 would tear all versions of Nadal on clay.

 

[Lleytonstation]

As with Carlos the Shepherd, Age comparison is irrelevant and pointless for future success.

 

[DSH]

Novak 2011 would tear all versions of Nadal on clay.

Terrible 'Djoke', that even your idol would blush at such stupidity.

 

[zakopinjo]

Terrible 'Djoke', that even your idol would blush at such stupidity.

The strongest thing is that I have full cover to write it, while you have nothing to refute it with.

By the way, here is what Novak said back in 2006

 

[Racquet_smash]

Novak 2011 would tear all versions of Nadal on clay.

He should tear 30 years old Fed before at least

 

[zakopinjo]

He should tear 30 years old Fed before at least

There is no need to tear him, 40:15 is reserved for him.

 

[DSH]

The strongest thing is that I have full cover to write it, while you have nothing to refute it with.

By the way, here is what Novak said back in 2006

Only you could say such stupidity.
The 2010 version of Nadal annihilates peak Djokovic on clay.

 

[DSH]

He should tear 30 years old Fed before at least

Only Djokovic fans can have such low IQ.

 

[zakopinjo]

Only you could say such stupidity.
The 2010 version of Nadal annihilates peak Djokovic on clay.

Big minus for you

 

[DSH]

Big minus for you

64, 63, 62 for the Spaniard.

 

[zakopinjo]

64, 63, 62 for the Spaniard.

On a blue clay

 

[DSH]

On a blue clay

And in decoturf.

 

[zakopinjo]

And in decoturf.

plexicushion?

 

[DSH]

plexicushion?

Djokovic is the king there, there is no problem in admitting it.

 

[Racquet_smash]

There is no need to tear him, 40:15 is reserved for him.

Are you trying to prove an argument or are you just fanboying like 12 year olds on other platforms? That has nothing to do with my main argument. You said 2011 Djokovic would defeat any version of Nadal on clay yet he couldn't even beat 30 years old Federer.

 

[zakopinjo]

Are you trying to prove an argument or are you just fanboying like 12 year olds on other platforms? That has nothing to do with my main argument. You said 2011 Djokovic would defeat any version of Nadal on clay yet he couldn't even beat 30 years old Federer.

But he beat Nadal twice, didn't he?

This is a match between Nadal and Novak, unless you think that Federer would enter Nadal's half of the court and then become a match between Fedal and Novak, then I have to admit that Novak could not win.

 

[SonnyT]

Only Djokovic fans can have such low IQ.

We're well known for having the highest IQ's, evidently by whom we're supporting!

 

[Racquet_smash]

But he beat Nadal twice, didn't he?

This is a match between Nadal and Novak, unless you think that Federer would enter Nadal's half of the court and then become a match between Fedal and Novak, then I have to admit that Novak could not win.

Nadal at RG is a different player compared to other clay courts. 2014, 2020, 2022 are clear examples of this.