Sinners so surprisingly strange serve stats

[Rovesciarete]

Over the Sinner thread we have long discussed a paradox, his overall strong stats and his serve weakness relative to his height. Now Jeff Sackman has come up with something very strange, an extremely low delta/difference between the win percentage of the second and the first serve:

While the tour wins well over 70% of its first-serve points, the Italian won only 63.5% in the quarter-finals against Alexander Bublik (another man who would never be confused with Andre Agassi), and 64.6% in his semi-final match with Roberto Bautista Agut. In both of those contests, he held on to 57% of his second serves–an outstanding mark for a player’s weaker offering.

...

Finding Ferrero and Nadal in Sinner’s neighborhood starts to give us an idea of what kind of players have low WinDiffs. Out of 2,460 player-seasons, only 33 had smaller WinDiff’s than Sinner’s 11.4 percentage points for 2021 so far

His tentative conclusions are interesting. As I have watched the games and the stats of Sinner for a long time and compared him in quite a few ways to other guys I think it is a mix of a couple of elements:

1) His serve % is obviously weak compared to his fellow pros and more so for a guy of his height. Youth does explain a good deal of the gap. Keep in mind that his speed isn‘t shabby and he had higher first percentages before so I guess he suffers in placement and is maybe easier to read then most. The special windy conditions of Miami certainly drove those percentages down but we aren‘t yet on clay

2) His overall game is stronger then most give him credit for. I have rated him before as a top10 returner as he has frankly overall very strong numbers, even massive when taking his height into account. He was successful despite this impactful problem.

3) The sample size is still quite small and he will regress to his mean which tends to be right now below the overall one.

4) Clay season should be fun as it lessens the impact of the serve as I have written before. Jeff goes into the same direction in his article.

5) He himself has stated that his serve will approach his potential only with 22-24 years. His teams has clearly taken an good hard look at the serve stats of many pros as those tend to follow this development. Arguably on of the reasons why the youngsters are having such a hard time to break into the upper echelon.

 

[tonylg]

I haven't watched him much, but did see him up close in Brisbane before Covid last year.

I did watch the final against Hubi and thought Sinner served very poorly. Not much strategy and no plan when things weren't working. Hubi wasted a lot of break opportunities and frankly the scoreline flattered Sinner.

On return he's incredibly defensive. Given how early he can take the ball, this is surpising and probably due to growing up and training exclusively on slow courts.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

His serve will only get better from now on: something which clearly shows that he can be a much bigger player than he already is.

 

[Sysyphus]

I think he has the same problem Rublev used to have (and kinda still has): acceptable pace on the first serve, just very sub-par placement and poor variety and disguise.

Rublev has started to mitigate that deficiency on the first serve, but mostly just with pace (regularly breaks 130). His second serve is still obviously tragic.

Expect Sinner to similarly make strides on the first serve. The serve can be improved for many years to come, longer than most aspects of the game. Look at Novak as well. Though he'll likely never be fully elite for his height. Some guys just have a very natural throwing motion that is evident from the start, like Pete, Fed -- or Shapovalov these days.

 

[Red Rick]

Sinner is not a top 10 returner.

 

[Sysyphus]

Sinner is not a top 10 returner.

probably is at the moment

 

[Nuclear Warhead Sinner]

Sinner holds the racquet much more loosely than most players. If you compare him to say Karatsev or Rublev, you'll notice a striking difference.
This is why he has such a fluid motion on all of his strokes. However, he doesn't have Federer's touch or talent to afford such a grip, particularly on his serve but also on his groundstrokes. This results in very volatile shot accuracy.

 

[Red Rick]

probably is at the moment

30th on HC break% in the last 52 weeks, 55th in 2021. That difference is way too big to dismiss for sample size/recency bias/competition or whatever.

I think his baseline game is really good, but his serve/return combo is extremely underwhelming. I looked into his stats before the Miami final.

 

[Sysyphus]

...

if we are talking return game, which is what I presume OP meant but perhaps I'm wrong, then he is already #10 in terms of return points won over the last year, and obviously trending upwards on the whole.

With that in mind, that claim would be an odd one to take exception to, seeing that he's obviously at worst only slightly outside the top 10 for overall return game ATM, very possible within the top 10.

 

[Red Rick]

if we are talking return game, which is what I presume OP meant but perhaps I'm wrong, then he is already #10 in terms of return points won over the last year, and obviously trending upwards on the whole.

With that in mind, that claim would be an odd one to take exception to, seeing that he's obviously at worst only slightly outside the top 10 for overall return game ATM, very possible within the top 10.

I see him only as like #15th over the last year with #6th in clay, so a big clay skew as well

Huge gaps in clay vs HC stats on return just scream baseline game > return game to me.

 

[Sysyphus]

I see him only as like #15th over the last year with #6th in clay, so a big clay skew as well

literally 10th.

but sure, if you are talking only about the return as a standalone shot, then it's a different convo. I assume that's not what OP meant, but again, only he can answer to that.

 

[Red Rick]

literally 10th.

but sure, if you are talking only about the return as a standalone shot, then it's a different convo. I assume that's not what OP meant, but again, only he can answer to that.

Ah. Higher cutoff for inclusion I think. UTS has the same numbers but no dank players in there.

 

[Sysyphus]

Ah. Higher cutoff for inclusion I think. UTS has the same numbers but no dank players in there.

the real shame here in that list is Grigor Dimitrov,

without the late 2017 recurrent shoulder injury he'd still be a top 10 player, but he's serving at Schwartzmanesque levels ever since

 

[Red Rick]

the real shame here in that list is Grigor Dimitrov,

without the late 2017 recurrent shoulder injury he'd still be a top 10 player, but he's serving at Schwartzmanesque levels ever since

Aw yis, Grigor Mortis has set in, sadly.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Top 10 returner is somewhat borderline, but he is certainly trending up. In first service points won he is as a returner overall number 12 with Federer still present. But some good points made in this thread so far.

Frankly his approach to the second serve is very conservative but I suppose that his team thinks his baseline quality will do. He has the power and the spin to work from way behind but I‘m pretty sure that experience will enable him to be more aggressive in his 2nd return approach. He has long thin legs and sometimes gets the small steps not quite right.

In this movement sense people are right to be critical while overall he is a quick player which covers the baseline very well.

 

[BeatlesFan]

What kind of professional tennis player openly announces his serve won’t reach full capacity until he’s 22-24? Sampras was serving 135 MPH when he won the USO at 19. Becker was serving similarly at age 17.

Great servers are great from the start, there’s no big server who started out mediocre and suddenly morphed into mini-Isner. Wilander and Chang both attempted to serve 125 late in their careers, but got in once in a blue moon.

As for Sinner, until he fixes his grotesquely defensive ROS positioning, he’s not beating great players or winning big events.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Well in Miami Sinner did first serve at 19 120 mph on average and with a 130 mph peak with a nice steady uptrend since 2020*, however he is a scattershot. The patter is a bit embarrassing compared to players like Zverev. It is likely that he also gives a bit more away then the experienced guys.

As far as I have seen players like Federer, Nadal and Djokovic made big strides with their serve from their teenage years. Mostly with disguise, placement, variety and tactics.

*From 2019 there was a bigger jump

 

[Rovesciarete]

Jannik is no way 187, much more like 193 and his frame is only starting to fill out. I‘m actually amazed that he can generate so much power with it. No comparison in maturity with a 19 year old Pete....

 

[Rovesciarete]

I did a bit of research and most players do improve their serve percentages over the first years on tour. Rublev is of course also a standout in this regard, being an aggressive first server with slightly under 58%in and 69%won in 2016/17 to slightly under 60%in and 79%won in 2020/21!

Sinner in 2020 had slightly worse serve stats then Federer in 2000 and is roughly in the Novak and Andrey ballpark agewise.* Of course there is a big selection bias as they have became so good partly so highly ranked because they raised their first serve a lot over the years.

*The surface split makes it more difficult. IMHO Nadal gets too little credit for his service game as a teen. It was of course not outstanding but surprisingly good for his age and the likely surface split.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Against the of course brilliant returner Djokovic he won only 48% of his first serve points but 52% off his second. He is lowering the usual gap to record territory

 

[Rovesciarete]

How the best are getting better from Jeff Sackmann has some remarkable tables about the biggest serve gains in the WTA and ATP. Overall we know that almost all improve their serve over the first years but there are really some stunners:


Player Streak Start %ile End %ile
Renzo Furlan 6 2 73
Slava Dosedel 6 2 16
Julien Benneteau 5 16 55
Arnaud Clement 6 18 70
Michael Chang 5 18 92
Roger Federer 5 47 94
Thomas Enqvist 5 58 94
Boris Becker 6 79 99
John Isner 7 82 98
Marc Rosset 5 87 98

I think I have already written about that Roger guy. He started as a sub-par server and become one of the very best. Found the Isner stat also fascinating.

 

[Slowtwitcher]

Sinner has weak ISR. Just look at his FH. You can have a good FH with weak ISR but not a good serve. Just an example: Agassi.

 

[Tmano]

Sinner serve needs to get better for sure but i believe he needs to improve the overall game. To me it seems he relies a lot of hitting monsters forehands and cross courts backhands but lacks on real tactics and ball placement in very crucial moment . The guys out there are aware of it and catching up.

 

[Rovesciarete]

This goes as far as I have seen over the last season for most youngish guys. His strokes were in a higher quadrant of spin&speed and he showed that he could hammer home points. But Novak outplayed him with fantastic movement, brilliant placement and tactical variety. Sinner even focused on those very points in his Italian interview:

I have a lot to learn .. The greatest difference is how he sees/understands the situations in the game and also the (game) management.

 

[Tmano]

I have very high hope of him and some for Sonego and Musetti and the new Italian tennis generation but as you are saying and noted you cant beat someone like Nole with that tennis approach.
I will watch the highlight later on and also the video. I think i should be able to understand it.....after all i'm Italian

 

[Rovesciarete]

It should make it...

“For some reason I had problems with my serve. I don’t understand why because I was not having problems in the practices at all. But today was one of the these days that my serve was a disaster,” Nadal said, with characteristic bluntness.

While a disaster he won still a lot more first service points then Sinner. Granted his second serve win % was arguably even more below his lofty standards.

Already last year I was greatly impressed by Rubles strides in the service game and he has confirmed his willingness to improve in this regard.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Once again the Sinner offers us strange gifts. He won against Rublev an amazing 62% of his second serves, almost as many as the 64% from the first serve! A chance to push the almost normal delta of 12 against Agut down where it belongs.

Jokes apart he really continues to be have one of the lowest differences between first and second Win % on record. Rublev has a far more conventional stat sheet, with an excellent 54% of points won!

 

[Gazelle]

Classic example of a player with a weak service but strong baseline game.

It doesn't really matter if he hits a first serve or second serve. Young Nadal was like this too.

 

[Rovesciarete]

The comparison with precocious Bull of Manacor is indeed strange on the surface but I have noticed quite a bit of stat similarities. Nadal has one of the very best 2nd serve win% of all time while he does not excel with his first, although he developed it a lot from his teenage years. Sinner is taller but really a teen at 19 while Nadal was a physical beast, I have rewatched some of his early sets and it hit me again.

Jeff Sackmann came up with idea that a deep fake of Sinner playing with an image of young Nadal would not look too out of place.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Well once again Jannik was able to achieve the sin of having a better win % with the 2nd then the first. Only abysmal 57% compared to brilliant 58%. Note that Stefanos had an even higher 2nd win%, a rare 60% confirming his form. However he Clara obtains it more on his serve merits while Sinner does it despite his serve demerits.

 

[Rovesciarete]

His 61% first service win rate against Alexei was once again dismal considering the altitude of Madrid but his second serve disappointed with 41% even more! The tall Ozzie took them early and aggressively as most of them were directed at his good defensive and high two-handed backhand. 205 kph peak and a mere 183,5 average are also on the low side for a first..

Usually if Sinner can enter a game with the relative slight advantage of the second serve he is able to dominate the rallies and earn the points. Not this time…

Well analysed and responded by the other side!

 

[Rovesciarete]

Against Humbert, a rather weak returner, there was a fairly ATP standard first serve win rate of 72% and a dominant 60% second serve one.

In the match up against Nadal both players clearly showed considerable respect to their respective qualities as returners, trying to hit hard and close to the lies which resulted in low first ins. Overall the King of Clay is of course the better player and his left hand special out wide caused some troubles for the youngster.

60% won for Jannik with 54% first in is of course rather bad even if you consider the Nadal factor but the dip from 56% second serves won to 42% is worse. Nadal attacked them well and is of course Nadal.

Interestingly against Shapo Nadal lowered his serve risk with lower speed and placement considerably, matching my data-interpretation about his returning but arguably served with too much margin. The Shapo returned well on the day an caused all kinds of breaking problems while serving very well.

Amazing how much serve speed Shapo is able to generate with his frame. I have written before that this is arguably one of the main reasons of his quick rise and hard court preference.

 

[Rovesciarete]

After the shocking serving against Fritz in Indian Wells Sinner did step up with his new serve style. Especially the final victory 6-2, 6-2 against Schwartzman was made rather comfortable due to his great serving.

I have written before that Sinner was despite his successes rather underperforming as he was a top returner but a mediocre if not bad server for his size. If he can initiate well he will often be able to pressure heavily with his plus 1 and plus 2. Tennis is a game of fine margins and a considerable improvement in a key area can really swing matches.

We will see how things go in the next encounters. Arguably the surface here suited him best and indoor hardcourt is Sinners stomping ground number 1.

 

[vex]

He’s a kid. He’ll develop his serve and he’ll be an ATG or he won’t and he won’t

 

[Rovesciarete]

Wanted to update it after two years or so. First a nice picture about Insights Serve Effectiveness:

Once again Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner cluster closely. Ruud and more so De Minaur are some of the very best server on tour for their size while FAA is even more reliant on his serve than I thought. For his age Rune does a lot with his serve which has hopefully nothing to do with his injury problem.

Sinner has improved but still underperforms his size. Korda is an even more interesting case and one to watch. Both have a similar frame which seems to mature slower than some others.

 

[Rovesciarete]

For future reference I will also post Couriers question: What if Jannik made more first serves?

In the 52 weeks going into the current Miami event, Jannik Sinner made 57.3% of his first serves. That’s the lowest rate of the current top 50, and well below the average of 63%. When he makes his first serve, he wins 74.7% of points–slightly better than average–and on second-serve points, he wins 54.7%, which ranks 11th among the top 50. Altogether, he’s winning 66.2% of service points, again a little bit above top-50 average.

He is now at 57.9% first in and 77.5% won, steadily improving. Quite slowly, but still.

If Sinner made 65% of his first serves instead of 57.3%, and he continued to win first and second serve points at the same rate, he’d improve his overall winning percentage on service points from 66.2% to 67.7%. That’s equivalent to increasing his hold percentage from 84.9% to 87.1%. (He’s currently holding 83.9% of the time, so he might be a bit unlucky.)

One and a half percentage points–how much does that really matter?

For starters, it would improve his position on the top-50 leaderboard from 24th to 11th. Now, he’s winning service points like Frances Tiafoe and Roberto Bautista Agut. Improved by 1.5%, he’d be in another league entirely, equal to Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz.

I don't we will see that anytime soon, if at all. Overall he can be more aggressive with his first serve than most because he is among the very best at winning points on second serve.

Jeff finishes:

Yet the Italian might be better even than that. My Elo ratings place him 4th, behind only Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and Daniil Medvedev. There’s no reliable relationship between points per thousand and ranking places at the very top of the table, but Elo hints at what an elite player Sinner already is. Tack on seven or eight more points per thousand and he might not be the number one player in the world, but he’s right there in the mix.

Well he is now where his Elo suggested he should be. Right now ELO it is a toss-up between Medvedev and Sinner for number 3.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Height versus Serve (and Return) by Jeff Sackmann has a couple of nice graphs:

193cm tall Sinner has finally reached and surpassed the 1995-2017 age 25* tour average of serve points won. However his numbers are boosted by his ball striking and net play, so he should still have room to grow, especially considering his low first in and ace rate:

Given his youth and good progression I expect him to cross the 9% ace rate n the not too distant future.

SINNER Tour-Level Seasons Top​

Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions. Click on years for results from that season.

Year​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	Set%​	Game%​	TB W-L​	TB%​	MS​	Hld%​	Brk%​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​	Best​
2023	84​	66​	18​	78.6%​	72.7%​	58.2%​	18-13​	58.1%​	76​	87.1%​	28.5%​	8.0%​	2.4%​	59.6%​	76.0%​	56.1%​	67.9%​	40.7%​	53.9%​	1.27​	W (4x)
2022	64​	47​	17​	73.4%​	68.6%​	55.4%​	16-7​	69.6%​	61​	83.4%​	26.5%​	7.6%​	3.4%​	58.4%​	74.5%​	53.4%​	65.7%​	39.9%​	52.6%​	1.16​	W (Umag)
2021	72​	50​	22​	69.4%​	63.6%​	54.1%​	22-14​	61.1%​	70​	81.0%​	27.0%​	5.9%​	2.5%​	59.9%​	71.1%​	54.4%​	64.4%​	39.9%​	52.0%​	1.12​	W (4x)
2020	31​	20​	11​	64.5%​	63.6%​	54.8%​	6-6​	50.0%​	30​	80.3%​	28.3%​	4.2%​	2.8%​	61.3%​	71.2%​	50.0%​	63.0%​	40.8%​	51.9%​	1.10​	W (Sofia)
2019	21​	11​	10​	52.4%​	39.0%​	46.2%​	0-6​	0.0%​	21​	77.2%​	23.5%​	5.6%​	2.6%​	59.3%​	69.7%​	52.8%​	62.8%​	37.1%​	49.7%​	1.00​	W (NextGen Finals)
Career	272​	194​	78​	71.3%​	66.2%​	55.3%​	62-46​	57.4%​	258​	83.1%​	27.2%​	6.7%​	2.7%​	59.6%​	73.3%​	54.0%​	65.5%​	40.0%​	52.5%​	1.16​

Janni wins roughly the same 2nd SPW as Charlie and is only below Nole. This was always one of his greatest strength as his weight of shot enables him to follow up with gusto.

*For my (Jeff Sackmann) dataset, I took age-25 seasons from 1998 to 2017 in which the player completed at least 30 tour-level matches.

 

[Dwell]

Height versus Serve (and Return) by Jeff Sackmann has a couple of nice graphs:

193cm tall Sinner has finally reached and surpassed the 2017 tour average of serve points won. However his numbers are boosted by his ball striking and net play, so he should still have room to grow, especially considering his low first in and ace rate:

Given his youth and good progression I expect him to cross the 9% ace rate n the not too distant future.

SINNER Tour-Level Seasons Top​

Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions. Click on years for results from that season.

Year​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	Set%​	Game%​	TB W-L​	TB%​	MS​	Hld%​	Brk%​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​	Best​
2023	84​	66​	18​	78.6%​	72.7%​	58.2%​	18-13​	58.1%​	76​	87.1%​	28.5%​	8.0%​	2.4%​	59.6%​	76.0%​	56.1%​	67.9%​	40.7%​	53.9%​	1.27​	W (4x)
2022	64​	47​	17​	73.4%​	68.6%​	55.4%​	16-7​	69.6%​	61​	83.4%​	26.5%​	7.6%​	3.4%​	58.4%​	74.5%​	53.4%​	65.7%​	39.9%​	52.6%​	1.16​	W (Umag)
2021	72​	50​	22​	69.4%​	63.6%​	54.1%​	22-14​	61.1%​	70​	81.0%​	27.0%​	5.9%​	2.5%​	59.9%​	71.1%​	54.4%​	64.4%​	39.9%​	52.0%​	1.12​	W (4x)
2020	31​	20​	11​	64.5%​	63.6%​	54.8%​	6-6​	50.0%​	30​	80.3%​	28.3%​	4.2%​	2.8%​	61.3%​	71.2%​	50.0%​	63.0%​	40.8%​	51.9%​	1.10​	W (Sofia)
2019	21​	11​	10​	52.4%​	39.0%​	46.2%​	0-6​	0.0%​	21​	77.2%​	23.5%​	5.6%​	2.6%​	59.3%​	69.7%​	52.8%​	62.8%​	37.1%​	49.7%​	1.00​	W (NextGen Finals)
Career	272​	194​	78​	71.3%​	66.2%​	55.3%​	62-46​	57.4%​	258​	83.1%​	27.2%​	6.7%​	2.7%​	59.6%​	73.3%​	54.0%​	65.5%​	40.0%​	52.5%​	1.16​

Janni wins roughly the same 2nd SPW as Charlie and is only below Nole. This was always one of his greatest strength as his weight of shot enables him to follow up with gusto.

Are there antecedents of players his height returning so well? His serve + return combo is clearly what sets him apart.
(Medvedev doesn't count, for obvious reasons)

 

[Rovesciarete]

Are there antecedents of players his height returning so well? His serve + return combo is clearly what sets him apart.
(Medvedev doesn't count, for obvious reasons)

That is actually an excellent question. He is slightly taller than the 191cm of Sir Andy Murray but I can't recall another 193cm lad with such numbers. Zverev and Medvedev must also bend that old 1995-2017 graph considerably upwards. Daniil is height-corrected out of this world with his 40.9% RPW during the last year. In 2021 he peaked at 41.5% - aged 25...

MEDVEDEV Tour-Level Seasons Top​

Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions. Click on years for results from that season.

Year​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​	Best​
2023	9.2%​	5.4%​	64.2%​	75.4%​	49.1%​	66.0%​	40.9%​	53.4%​	1.20​	W (5x)
2022	11.8%​	5.1%​	64.4%​	76.3%​	51.0%​	67.3%​	39.6%​	53.3%​	1.21​	W (2x)
2021	12.6%​	4.3%​	62.4%​	78.5%​	52.5%​	68.7%​	41.5%​	54.5%​	1.33​	W (5x)
2020	12.6%​	3.5%​	60.8%​	77.9%​	54.2%​	68.6%​	40.3%​	53.7%​	1.28​	W (2x)
2019	11.4%​	4.3%​	59.7%​	75.8%​	54.4%​	67.1%​	40.2%​	53.3%​	1.22​	W (4x)
2018	9.5%​	5.0%​	57.8%​	74.0%​	51.4%​	64.5%​	37.2%​	50.9%​	1.05​	W (3x)
2017	8.7%​	4.8%​	60.4%​	71.2%​	48.8%​	62.4%​	35.9%​	49.5%​	0.95​	F (Chennai)
2016	7.0%​	2.6%​	58.7%​	70.1%​	48.4%​	61.2%​	41.3%​	51.0%​	1.06​	QF (Moscow)
Career	10.7%​	4.7%​	61.5%​	75.5%​	51.5%​	66.2%​	39.6%​	52.7%​	1.17​

 

[Dwell]

That is actually an excellent question. He is slightly taller than Sir Andy Murray but I can't recall another 193cm lad with such numbers. Zverev and Medvedev must also bend that old 1995-2017 graph considerably upwards. Daniil is height-corrected out of this world with his 40.9% RPW during the last year. In 2021 he peaked at 41.5% - aged 25...

MEDVEDEV Tour-Level Seasons Top​

Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions. Click on years for results from that season.

Year​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​	Best​
2023	9.2%​	5.4%​	64.2%​	75.4%​	49.1%​	66.0%​	40.9%​	53.4%​	1.20​	W (5x)
2022	11.8%​	5.1%​	64.4%​	76.3%​	51.0%​	67.3%​	39.6%​	53.3%​	1.21​	W (2x)
2021	12.6%​	4.3%​	62.4%​	78.5%​	52.5%​	68.7%​	41.5%​	54.5%​	1.33​	W (5x)
2020	12.6%​	3.5%​	60.8%​	77.9%​	54.2%​	68.6%​	40.3%​	53.7%​	1.28​	W (2x)
2019	11.4%​	4.3%​	59.7%​	75.8%​	54.4%​	67.1%​	40.2%​	53.3%​	1.22​	W (4x)
2018	9.5%​	5.0%​	57.8%​	74.0%​	51.4%​	64.5%​	37.2%​	50.9%​	1.05​	W (3x)
2017	8.7%​	4.8%​	60.4%​	71.2%​	48.8%​	62.4%​	35.9%​	49.5%​	0.95​	F (Chennai)
2016	7.0%​	2.6%​	58.7%​	70.1%​	48.4%​	61.2%​	41.3%​	51.0%​	1.06​	QF (Moscow)
Career	10.7%​	4.7%​	61.5%​	75.5%​	51.5%​	66.2%​	39.6%​	52.7%​	1.17​

Interesting, Medvedev is indeed exceptional. I think his tennis iq plays a big role here, similarly to Rafa's who I just saw has the highest RPW peak of his era.
Sinner doesn't really have that flair... yet. I'm sure you remember his Australian Open 1R loss to Shapovalov..

 

[Rovesciarete]

Interesting, Medvedev is indeed exceptional. I think his tennis iq plays a big role here, similarly to Rafa's who I just saw has the highest RPW peak of his era.
Sinner doesn't really have that flair... yet. I'm sure you remember his Australian Open 1R loss to Shapovalov..

That was a long time ago and it is quite instructive to look back at all his slam losses. He faced him quite tired after winning the Great Ocean Open. His serve numbers were not bad but he is a much better player now.

Quite revealing that his DR often competitive even when losing in straights apart from facing Rafa with a plan at RG. Painful to see two decently positive ones. Interesting to remember that Jannik did say that he felt more closer to Nole in 23 than in 22 despite winning two sets less - fits the DR.

Tournament	Surface	Rd	Rk​	vRk​		Score	More		​	DR​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​
28‑Aug‑2023	US Open	Hard	R16	6​	12​	(12)Alexander Zverev [GER] d. (6)Sinner	6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3		(ch)	0.91​	7.5%​	4.4%​	53.8%​	68.6%​	50.0%​
3‑Jul‑2023	Wimbledon	Grass	SF	8​	2​	(2)Novak Djokovic [SRB] d. (8)Sinner	6-3 6-4 7-6(4)		(ch)	0.97​	8.9%​	3.3%​	60.0%​	75.9%​	55.6%​
29‑May‑2023	Roland Garros	Clay	R64	9​	79​	Daniel Altmaier [GER] d. (8)Sinner	6-7(0) 7-6(7) 1-6 7-6(4) 7-5		(ch)	1.06​	5.9%​	1.6%​	58.8%​	70.0%​	54.5%​
16‑Jan‑2023	Australian Open	Hard	R16	16​	4​	(3)Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE] d. (15)Sinner	6-4 6-4 3-6 4-6 6-3		(ch)	1.06​	8.1%​	2.2%​	67.6%​	71.7%​	52.3%​
29‑Aug‑2022	US Open	Hard	QF	13​	4​	(3)Carlos Alcaraz [ESP] d. (11)Sinner	6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3		(ch)	0.86​	3.8%​	5.2%​	54.9%​	64.1%​	44.8%​
27‑Jun‑2022	Wimbledon	Grass	QF	13​	3​	(1)Novak Djokovic [SRB] d. (10)Sinner	5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2		(ch)	0.79​	6.0%​	5.2%​	53.7%​	69.4%​	50.0%​
23‑May‑2022	Roland Garros	Clay	R16	12​	7​	(7)Andrey Rublev [RUS] d. (11)Sinner	1-6 6-4 2-0 RET			0.79​	9.1%​	4.5%​	51.5%​	70.6%​	50.0%​
17‑Jan‑2022	Australian Open	Hard	QF	10​	4​	(4)Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE] d. (11)Sinner	6-3 6-4 6-2		(ch)	0.77​	6.1%​	1.5%​	63.6%​	71.4%​	54.2%​
30‑Aug‑2021	US Open	Hard	R16	16​	4​	(4)Alexander Zverev [GER] d. (13)Sinner	6-4 6-4 7-6(7)		(ch)	0.89​	4.7%​	1.9%​	60.4%​	73.4%​	50.0%​
28‑Jun‑2021	Wimbledon	Grass	R128	23​	48​	Marton Fucsovics [HUN] d. (19)Sinner	5-7 6-3 7-5 6-3			0.89​	1.5%​	3.8%​	56.8%​	65.3%​	42.1%​
31‑May‑2021	Roland Garros	Clay	R16	19​	3​	(3)Rafael Nadal [ESP] d. (18)Sinner	7-5 6-3 6-0		(ch)	0.59​	0.0%​	5.3%​	65.8%​	42.0%​	38.5%​
8‑Feb‑2021	Australian Open	Hard	R128	32​	12​	(11)Denis Shapovalov [CAN] d. Sinner	3-6 6-3 6-2 4-6 6-4		(ch)	0.96​	2.8%​	2.8%​	70.3%​	66.7%​	55.8%​

 

[Rovesciarete]

As I have watched the games and the stats of Sinner for a long time and compared him in quite a few ways to other guys I think it is a mix of a couple of elements:

1) His serve % is obviously weak compared to his fellow pros and more so for a guy of his height. Youth does explain a good deal of the gap. Keep in mind that his speed isn‘t shabby and he had higher first percentages before so I guess he suffers in placement and is maybe easier to read then most. The special windy conditions of Miami certainly drove those percentages down but we aren‘t yet on clay

2) His overall game is stronger then most give him credit for. I have rated him before as a top10 returner as he has frankly overall very strong numbers, even massive when taking his height into account. He was successful despite this impactful problem.

3) The sample size is still quite small and he will regress to his mean which tends to be right now below the overall one.

4) Clay season should be fun as it lessens the impact of the serve as I have written before. Jeff goes into the same direction in his article.

5) He himself has stated that his serve will approach his potential only with 22-24 years. His teams has clearly taken an good hard look at the serve stats of many pros as those tend to follow this development. Arguably on of the reasons why the youngsters are having such a hard time to break into the upper echelon.

Wrote that minus a typo after the first Miami final. Interesting that he - see 5) - himself said over three years ago that is serve will approach his potential only with 22-24. Certainly it looks quite a bit better now..

4) Turned out decently but he ran into Djokovic, Tsitsipas, big serving Popyrin and allergy in Madrid, Nadal and Nadal early which halted his progress in the big clay tournaments.

3) His mean has been trending up but it also returned to it.

2) Was a top10 returner in my mind back then and now he is most certainly a top5 one, corrected for opposition quality more like top3.

1) I think the wind really bothered him more at this stage while I anticipated rightly that his serve would approach his height with more age.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Over the last year Sinner has held over 90% on every surface. Small clay and grass numbers, but maybe more relevant is that he did so also against top 10 players. His break percentage has been markedly lower against them which shows mostly just how good elite players are at getting the job done. Still wins likely more return points then the tour average against the tour average.

TOTALS	Match	Ace%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	Hld%	SPW	Brk%	RPW	TPW	DR
Last 52	63-9 (88%)​	8.8%​	61.0%​	78.0%​	57.2%​	91.0%​	69.9%​	27.6%​	39.9%​	54.4%​	1.33​
Hard	49-5 (91%)​	8.7%​	61.6%​	77.3%​	56.9%​	91.2%​	69.5%​	27.9%​	39.9%​	54.4%​	1.31​
Clay	6-1 (86%)​	4.5%​	61.3%​	81.1%​	56.1%​	90.0%​	71.4%​	33.3%​	41.4%​	55.9%​	1.45​
Grass	8-3 (73%)​	11.7%​	57.9%​	80.0%​	58.8%​	90.6%​	71.1%​	23.5%​	39.3%​	53.7%​	1.36​
Grand Slams	15-2 (88%)​	9.9%​	57.8%​	78.2%​	59.1%​	91.6%​	70.2%​	29.6%​	41.0%​	54.8%​	1.38​
vs Top 10	14-3 (82%)​	8.9%​	62.5%​	75.8%​	55.1%​	90.0%​	68.0%​	18.7%​	35.9%​	52.1%​	1.12​
vs Righties	59-8 (88%)​	8.7%​	60.4%​	78.0%​	57.0%​	90.8%​	69.7%​	27.3%​	39.8%​	54.2%​	1.31​
vs Lefties	4-1 (80%)​	10.2%​	69.8%​	78.5%​	61.4%​	94.5%​	73.4%​	32.7%​	42.4%​	56.7%​	1.59​
Best of 3	48-7 (87%)​	8.3%​	62.3%​	77.9%​	56.2%​	90.8%​	69.8%​	26.7%​	39.5%​	54.2%​	1.30​
Best of 5	15-2 (88%)​	9.9%​	57.8%​	78.2%​	59.1%​	91.6%​	70.2%​	29.6%​	41.0%​	54.8%​	1.38​

 

[Rovesciarete]

What kind of professional tennis player openly announces his serve won’t reach full capacity until he’s 22-24? Sampras was serving 135 MPH when he won the USO at 19. Becker was serving similarly at age 17.

Great servers are great from the start, there’s no big server who started out mediocre and suddenly morphed into mini-Isner. Wilander and Chang both attempted to serve 125 late in their careers, but got in once in a blue moon.

As for Sinner, until he fixes his grotesquely defensive ROS positioning, he’s not beating great players or winning big events.

Interesting point to make, did not consider that impossibility to become a big server - nor did Jannik…

 

[SonnyT]

The second serve win % > first serve win % isn't unheard of.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Sinner is holding 92% of serves this year, in fact 90% even on clay
GODLY numbers

He has such a punishing ground game that even when his first serve goes missing, he can win behind his puny second serve. Dude has hit some second serves 64 mph recently.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Federer has reached 91.6 for a season in 2004. But even he has not reached 92% holds for the year. What is going on if anyone can explain.

 

[SonnyT]

Trouble if he had to beat Paul on tiebreaks in first 2 sets. Med would be big problem.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Federer has reached 91.6 for a season in 2004. But even he has not reached 92% holds for the year. What is going on if anyone can explain.

Over the last two decades there might have been the following trends:

1) Overall the effectiveness of the serve has increased, data supports that well.

2) Groundstrokes seem to get heavier

3) Court speed has been slowed down, likely to counteract to some extent 1) and 2)

Sinner was always brilliant at winning second serves, despite having a weak one. He has improved the serve steadily, and lot from the latter part of 2023 after switching stance (again). Arguably nobody can follow up a good return with a serve plus like him from both wings.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Over the last two decades there might have been the following trends:

1) Overall the effectiveness of the serve has increased, data supports that well.

2) Groundstrokes seem to get heavier

3) Court speed has been slowed down, likely to counteract to some extent 1) and 2)

Sinner was always brilliant at winning second serves, despite having a weak one. He has improved the serve steadily, and lot from the latter part of 2023 after switching stance (again). Arguably nobody can follow up a good return with a serve plus like him from both wings.

Why is that ? Is his backhand that good?

Players will always try to return to backhand because it starts point from neutral. So has sinner reached such a stage that even returning to his backhand starts with him in huge advantage ?