Sinning in five: What will Sinner's record be at the end?

[Rovesciarete]

Besides the usually joy-cry cycle of TT forum live think his 6-9 fifth-set record and negative trend is intriguing, especially compared to the amazing 12-1 of Alcaraz. Some observations:

1) Sinner has increasingly been a statistical outlier with an average performance level clearly higher than anybody else this year. According to Tennis Insight he had pre-SW19 the best forehand, best backhand and best return of the whole tour.

2) Sinner has almost never lost a match in the last two years badly, only in the ATP finals he was dominated. Wimbledon 2023 was very close DR-wise. Logically most of his losses will thus come in three or five, more so in 2024.

3) In every single loss illness or injury have played a (key) role and despite this Sinner outscored his opponent in both five set losses and was very close in his two three set ones. This can be very bad or excellent news depending on his further path.

To me the simplest explanation is that despite his recent development Sinner is still athletically clearly behind his contemporaries and way below his physical peak. Indeed he grew a lot still with 18 and his new team was surprised in 22 that he was able to perform at such a level with his lithe body. His great natural ball-striking and returning skill pushed him beyond the athletically expected.

In short: Sinner has become the number one thanks to his superior skill level, certainly not elite athletic performance or especially clever tennis tactics.

His growth curve, focus and work ethic indicate that he will continue to improve all aspects of his game and especially his fitness. Fewer illnesses and injuries are also likely in the next couple of years, they have been handling some earlier problems clearly better.

 

[NAS]

He don't have the stamina of Prime Novak or Rafa, he need to find plan B, he can't play like this, hitting hard, keep on playing long rally, long matches.
Either he need to devlop stamina and better fitness like big three or he needs to ends Point early

 

[legcramp]

Needs some epo.

 

[urban]

Needs some physical build-up. He still looks frail and thin, his big game seems too big for his body, especially his legs. In the Nastase thread on the Former Forum is a video documentary on Nastase. Nasty had the ideal body for tennis. tall, lean, muscular in arms and legs, but not too muscular and too heavy.

 

[Spin Diesel]

Besides the usually joy-cry cycle of TT forum live think his 6-9 fifth-set record and negative trend is intriguing, especially compared to the amazing 12-1 of Alcaraz. Some observations:

1) Sinner has increasingly been a statistical outlier with an average performance level clearly higher than anybody else this year. According to Tennis Insight he had pre-SW19 the best forehand, best backhand and best return of the whole tour.

2) Sinner has almost never lost a match in the last two years badly, only in the ATP finals he was dominated. Wimbledon 2023 was very close DR-wise. Logically most of his losses will thus come in three or five, more so in 2024.

3) In every single loss illness or injury have played a (key) role and despite this Sinner outscored his opponent in both five set losses and was very close in his two three set ones. This can be very bad or excellent news depending on his further path.

To me the simplest explanation is that despite his recent development Sinner is still athletically clearly behind his contemporaries and way below his physical peak. Indeed he grew a lot still with 18 and his new team was surprised in 22 that he was able to perform at such a level with his lithe body. His great natural ball-striking and returning skill pushed him beyond the athletically expected.

In short: Sinner has become the number one thanks to his superior skill level, certainly not elite athletic performance or especially clever tennis tactics.

His growth curve, focus and work ethic indicate that he will continue to improve all aspects of his game and especially his fitness. Fewer illnesses and injuries are also likely in the next couple of years, they have been handling some earlier problems clearly better.

I'd agree with pretty much everything, except for "clearly" behind his contemporaries and I think tactically he plays really well - though this doesn't necessarily disagree with the way you put it.

 

[Humble Crumble]

I agree with pretty much everything you say OP. Sinner needs to catch up physically with his rivals, even if this means gaining a few pounds of muscle or something. I’m no fitness guru. His tennis has been constantly improving so no issues on that front.

 

[Spin Diesel]

Oh and I actually wanted to talk about Alcaraz's 5 set record as well. 12-1 sounds fantastic sure but it is not as great as it looks imo.
My argument for that is the following:
These are the 5-setters, when he was the higher ranked player by quite a bit. (I added what his ranking was compared to theirs at the time.)

Yasutaka Uchiyama (75-116)
Gojowczyk (55-141)
Ramos (6-44)
Struff (7-155)
Cilic (4-17)
Sinner (4-13)
Tiafoe (4-26)
Tiafoe (3-29)

Here is the only one he won, despite being the lower ranked player by quite a bit

Tsitsipas (55-3)

So he actually should have won 8 of his 13 five setters in less than 5.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

He just isn’t alcaraz in best of 5. He will do better in smaller events. Alcaraz will own him and have way better records in majors though.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

I agree with pretty much everything you say OP. Sinner needs to catch up physically with his rivals, even if this means gaining a few pounds of muscle or something. I’m no fitness guru. His tennis has been constantly improving so no issues on that front.

This is a big part of it. He can’t go as long or be as physical strong as alcaraz in long matches. He also needs more variety in his game too. He still has a bit to go to get to alcaraz level in majors and he might never do it. No shame in that though and Sinner will still have a great career.

 

[Humble Crumble]

This is a big part of it. He can’t go as long or be as physical strong as alcaraz in long matches. He also needs more variety in his game too. He still has a bit to go to get to alcaraz level in majors and he might never do it. No shame in that though and Sinner will still have a great career.

Sinner doesn’t lack variety, he just needs more confidence at the net. He prefers the baseline, and that’s because his baseline game is the best I’ve seen amongst the new kids. If he can practice more net play he might get more comfortable there. Who knows.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Sinner doesn’t lack variety, he just needs more confidence at the net. He prefers the baseline, and that’s because his baseline game is the best I’ve seen amongst the new kids. If he can practice more net play he might get more comfortable there. Who knows.

Yeah the net game can improve. We will see. Let’s see if he can continue to improve and get fitter too.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I'd agree with pretty much everything, except for "clearly" behind his contemporaries and I think tactically he plays really well - though this doesn't necessarily disagree with the way you put it.

Maybe phrased a bit badly. 'Clearly' as in endurance compared to the elite a là Medvedev, Zverev or Alcaraz. Overall I think that tactically he plays soundly but adjustments on the fly are not his forte. Usually his game plan A is, if executed at high enough fitness level, good enough against almost anybody. In this case out-pointed an often superb playing Medvedev.

In my opinion he has tactical variety, as evidenced in many matches or the droppers in set 3 but uses it more sparingly as game plan A is just so good. Actually his bh slice wasn't bad and seems to be more not chosen as his backhand drive is possibly the best in business.*

Keep in mind that he is the most efficient net player among the top guns despite attacking not much less. He has is also a rare combination of down the line threat from both wings, see below.

Drop shots could be dialled up a bit under certain circumstances, serve and volley as well.

Player​	Matches​	SnV Freq​	SnV W%​	Net Freq​	Net W%​	FH DTL Wnr%​	FH IO Wnr%​	BH DTL Wnr%​	Drop Freq​	Drop Wnr%​	RallyAgg​	ReturnAgg​
Rafael Nadal​	6​	3.0%​	75.0%​	9.7%​	76.3%​	17.3%​	8.7%​	7.9%​	1.3%​	33.3%​	-45​	-40​
Jannik Sinner​	55​	3.0%​	77.3%​	10.6%​	76.3%​	18.7%​	15.1%​	23.3%​	1.3%​	34.4%​	-30​	-15​
Andy Murray​	10​	0.7%​	66.7%​	11.5%​	74.8%​	11.3%​	12.9%​	17.2%​	1.6%​	32.8%​	-71​	-61​
Grigor Dimitrov​	29​	2.7%​	83.6%​	11.4%​	73.9%​	19.3%​	8.9%​	28.1%​	1.0%​	33.3%​	-33​	-15​
Carlos Alcaraz​	43​	8.6%​	73.8%​	13.9%​	73.4%​	22.9%​	13.0%​	23.0%​	2.9%​	35.0%​	-2​	-1​
Roman Safiullin​	10​	2.4%​	59.1%​	12.3%​	73.1%​	27.8%​	21.2%​	20.3%​	1.0%​	17.2%​	32​	37​
Gael Monfils​	14​	2.8%​	81.5%​	7.3%​	72.8%​	11.9%​	13.8%​	16.0%​	1.2%​	26.4%​	-68​	-49​
Cameron Norrie​	7​	5.3%​	66.7%​	16.4%​	72.5%​	16.6%​	6.2%​	13.8%​	2.8%​	41.4%​	-2​	-1​
Stefanos Tsitsipas​	30​	5.9%​	74.2%​	12.9%​	71.5%​	23.2%​	11.5%​	19.6%​	1.9%​	39.0%​	-12​	-3​

*Not the most consistent, would but Zverev, Medvedev and Djokovic still ahead there.

 

[SneederFeeder]

Oh and I actually wanted to talk about Alcaraz's 5 set record as well. 12-1 sounds fantastic sure but it is not as great as it looks imo.
My argument for that is the following:
These are the 5-setters, when he was the higher ranked player by quite a bit. (I added what his ranking was compared to theirs at the time.)

Yasutaka Uchiyama (75-116)
Gojowczyk (55-141)
Ramos (6-44)
Struff (7-155)
Cilic (4-17)
Sinner (4-13)
Tiafoe (4-26)
Tiafoe (3-29)

Here is the only one he won, despite being the lower ranked player by quite a bit

Tsitsipas (55-3)

So he actually should have won 8 of his 13 five setters in less than 5.

Also, a lot of Alcaraz 5 setters follow the pattern of him winning a set (either 1st or 2nd) getting himself down 1-2, having a reaction and winning the 4th and then 5th.

It's less so of a particular ability on the 5th set and more an impressive ability to turn things around in the 4th and gain the full momentum.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Also, a lot of Alcaraz 5 setters follow the pattern of him winning a set (either 1st or 2nd) getting himself down 1-2, having a reaction and winning the 4th and then 5th.

It's less so of a particular ability on the 5th set and more an impressive ability to turn things around in the 4th and gain the full momentum.

I think it is this plus that he was the favourite/stronger player in most as @Spin Diesel pointed out and has amazing athletic properties.

If you are the weaker player facing in the fifth a stronger player which has also an athletic edge...

 

[neytron]

It's too early to say that this is a trend. After he raised his level, he only played three 5-setters and all against the best players.

 

[Kralingen]

Michele Ferrari makes him into a double digit Slam winner. We will see if he takes that path.

 

[Humble Crumble]

Michele Ferrari makes him into a double digit Slam winner. We will see if he takes that path.

Considering every loss of 2024 for Sinner has had an injury or illness complicating things, his record has been quite remarkable given his potential should he raise his physical peak.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Here are all his games which went to five. Notably he lost four as the higher ranked player - all in the last 78 weeks. The Altmaier loss was bad, Zverev, Alcaraz and Medvedev are at the very stamina top. Looks like he has overall a positive DR and TPW.

Date	Surface	Rd	Rk​	vRk​		Score	More	DR​	A%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	BPSvd​	Time​
1‑Jul‑2024	Grass	QF	1​	5​	(5)Daniil Medvedev [RUS] d. (1)Sinner	6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4) 2-6 6-3		​	​	​	​	​	​	​
27‑May‑2024	Clay	SF	2​	3​	(3)Carlos Alcaraz [ESP] d. (2)Sinner	2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3	(ch)	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
15‑Jan‑2024	Hard	F	4​	3​	(4)Sinner d. (3)Daniil Medvedev [RUS]	3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3	(ch)	0.99​	9.7%​	61.1%​	73.9%​	53.6%​	8/12​	3:44​
28‑Aug‑2023	Hard	R16	6​	12​	(12)Alexander Zverev [GER] d. (6)Sinner	6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3	(ch)	0.91​	7.5%​	53.8%​	68.6%​	50.0%​	8/14​	4:41​
29‑May‑2023	Clay	R64	9​	79​	Daniel Altmaier [GER] d. (8)Sinner	6-7(0) 7-6(7) 1-6 7-6(4) 7-5	(ch)	1.06​	5.9%​	58.8%​	70.0%​	54.5%​	4/9​	5:26​
16‑Jan‑2023	Hard	R16	16​	4​	(3)Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE] d. (15)Sinner	6-4 6-4 3-6 4-6 6-3	(ch)	1.06​	8.1%​	67.6%​	71.7%​	52.3%​	6/11​	4:00​
16‑Jan‑2023	Hard	R32	16​	78​	(15)Sinner d. Marton Fucsovics [HUN]	4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-0	(ch)	1.27​	4.4%​	59.3%​	71.3%​	45.5%​	7/12​	3:33​
29‑Aug‑2022	Hard	QF	13​	4​	(3)Carlos Alcaraz [ESP] d. (11)Sinner	6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3	(ch)	0.86​	3.8%​	54.9%​	64.1%​	44.8%​	15/26​	5:15​
29‑Aug‑2022	Hard	R16	13​	73​	(11)Sinner d. Ilya Ivashka [BLR]	6-1 5-7 6-2 4-6 6-3	(ch)	1.24​	3.7%​	46.3%​	72.6%​	48.6%​	6/14​	3:48​
29‑Aug‑2022	Hard	R128	13​	93​	(11)Sinner d. Daniel Altmaier [GER]	5-7 6-2 6-1 3-6 6-1		1.60​	13.2%​	57.0%​	75.4%​	67.3%​	6/9​	3:35​
27‑Jun‑2022	Grass	QF	13​	3​	(1)Novak Djokovic [SRB] d. (10)Sinner	5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2	(ch)	0.79​	6.0%​	53.7%​	69.4%​	50.0%​	9/15​	3:35​
30‑Aug‑2021	Hard	R32	16​	20​	(13)Sinner d. (17)Gael Monfils [FRA]	7-6(1) 6-2 4-6 4-6 6-4	(ch)	1.12​	3.0%​	56.0%​	68.8%​	54.8%​	12/18​	3:42​
31‑May‑2021	Clay	R128	19​	85​	(18)Sinner d. Pierre Hugues Herbert [FRA]	6-1 4-6 6-7(4) 7-5 6-4	(ch)	1.19​	3.2%​	61.7%​	68.4%​	59.3%​	8/12​	3:32​
8‑Feb‑2021	Hard	R128	32​	12​	(11)Denis Shapovalov [CAN] d. Sinner	3-6 6-3 6-2 4-6 6-4	(ch)	0.96​	2.8%​	70.3%​	66.7%​	55.8%​	5/10​	3:55​
31‑Aug‑2020	Hard	R128	74​	16​	(11)Karen Khachanov [RUS] d. Sinner	3-6 6-7(7) 6-2 6-0 7-6(4)		0.76​	6.3%​	56.5%​	74.1%​	44.6%​	17/22​	3:44​

 

[Spin Diesel]

Maybe phrased a bit badly. 'Clearly' as in endurance compared to the elite a là Medvedev, Zverev or Alcaraz. Overall I think that tactically he plays soundly but adjustments on the fly are not his forte. Usually his game plan A is, if executed at high enough fitness level, good enough against almost anybody. In this case out-pointed an often superb playing Medvedev.

In my opinion he has tactical variety, as evidenced in many matches or the droppers in set 3 but uses it more sparingly as game plan A is just so good. Actually his bh slice wasn't bad and seems to be more not chosen as his backhand drive is possibly the best in business.*

Keep in mind that he is the most efficient net player among the top guns despite attacking not much less. He has is also a rare combination of down the line threat from both wings, see below.

Drop shots could be dialled up a bit under certain circumstances, serve and volley as well.

Player​	Matches​	SnV Freq​	SnV W%​	Net Freq​	Net W%​	FH DTL Wnr%​	FH IO Wnr%​	BH DTL Wnr%​	Drop Freq​	Drop Wnr%​	RallyAgg​	ReturnAgg​
Rafael Nadal​	6​	3.0%​	75.0%​	9.7%​	76.3%​	17.3%​	8.7%​	7.9%​	1.3%​	33.3%​	-45​	-40​
Jannik Sinner​	55​	3.0%​	77.3%​	10.6%​	76.3%​	18.7%​	15.1%​	23.3%​	1.3%​	34.4%​	-30​	-15​
Andy Murray​	10​	0.7%​	66.7%​	11.5%​	74.8%​	11.3%​	12.9%​	17.2%​	1.6%​	32.8%​	-71​	-61​
Grigor Dimitrov​	29​	2.7%​	83.6%​	11.4%​	73.9%​	19.3%​	8.9%​	28.1%​	1.0%​	33.3%​	-33​	-15​
Carlos Alcaraz​	43​	8.6%​	73.8%​	13.9%​	73.4%​	22.9%​	13.0%​	23.0%​	2.9%​	35.0%​	-2​	-1​
Roman Safiullin​	10​	2.4%​	59.1%​	12.3%​	73.1%​	27.8%​	21.2%​	20.3%​	1.0%​	17.2%​	32​	37​
Gael Monfils​	14​	2.8%​	81.5%​	7.3%​	72.8%​	11.9%​	13.8%​	16.0%​	1.2%​	26.4%​	-68​	-49​
Cameron Norrie​	7​	5.3%​	66.7%​	16.4%​	72.5%​	16.6%​	6.2%​	13.8%​	2.8%​	41.4%​	-2​	-1​
Stefanos Tsitsipas​	30​	5.9%​	74.2%​	12.9%​	71.5%​	23.2%​	11.5%​	19.6%​	1.9%​	39.0%​	-12​	-3​

*Not the most consistent, would but Zverev, Medvedev and Djokovic still ahead there.

That‘s fascinating! I knew that he has improved his net game and droppers but didn‘t think that he actually does quite so well already.

Would be interesting to have a points-won-when-using-dropshot% instead of Drop Wnr% though.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

According to Tennis Insight he had pre-SW19 the best forehand, best backhand and best return of the whole tour.

And that's why Tennis insight is a joke.

 

[Rovesciarete]

That‘s fascinating! I knew that he has improved his net game and droppers but didn‘t think that he actually does quite so well already.

Would be interesting to have a points-won-when-using-dropshot% instead of Drop Wnr% though.

The Top-spin blog has something about the after-effects. Overall there should be a correlation but it is a tricky question...

From the 60 players with the most charted points to analyze, here are the 15 who win the highest percentage of points behind their drop shots:

Player Drop Point W%
Kei Nishikori.........................69.6%
Richard Gasquet..................66.2%
Nicolas Jarry.........................65.3%
Sebastian Baez.....................63.2%
Carlos Alcaraz.......................62.1%
Rafael Nadal..........................61.3%
Lucas Pouille.........................60.3%
Roger Federer.......................59.7%
Alejandro Davidovich............59.3%
Roberto Bautista...................58.9%
Marton Fucsovics..................58.2%
Pablo Carreno.......................58.1%
Jannik Sinner.........................57.7%
Dominic Thiem......................57.5%
Andy Murray.........................56.7%


For a a guy with a hardcourt bias top 15 is obviously not bad at all. Sinner is on of the blue points on the line between Struff and Federer, overall he could have lost some efficiency lately for a slightly higher frequency.

 

[Spin Diesel]

The Top-spin blog has something about the after-effects. Overall there should be a correlation but it is a tricky question...

From the 60 players with the most charted points to analyze, here are the 15 who win the highest percentage of points behind their drop shots:

Player Drop Point W%
Kei Nishikori.........................69.6%
Richard Gasquet..................66.2%
Nicolas Jarry.........................65.3%
Sebastian Baez.....................63.2%
Carlos Alcaraz.......................62.1%
Rafael Nadal..........................61.3%
Lucas Pouille.........................60.3%
Roger Federer.......................59.7%
Alejandro Davidovich............59.3%
Roberto Bautista...................58.9%
Marton Fucsovics..................58.2%
Pablo Carreno.......................58.1%
Jannik Sinner.........................57.7%
Dominic Thiem......................57.5%
Andy Murray.........................56.7%


For a a guy with a hardcourt bias top 15 is obviously not bad at all. Sinner is on of the blue points on the line between Struff and Federer, overall he could have lost some efficiency lately for a slightly higher frequency.

That‘s interesting. I thought Djokovic would be more successful with his droppers. Also interesting that Jarry is so high, probably due to the combination with his power. And yeah .. I had to laugh a bit, when I saw Bublik there.

 

[CHillTennis]

Somewhere between decent and mug.

 

[NeutralFan]

These datas and stats mean nothing if they don't translate into winning slams. As i said before Wimbledon if Sinner doesn't win Wimbledon I'll stop hyping him.

 

[Rovesciarete]

That‘s interesting. I thought Djokovic would be more successful with his droppers. Also interesting that Jarry is so high, probably due to the combination with his power. And yeah .. I had to laugh a bit, when I saw Bublik there.

Jarry has an excellent clay serve and a big forehand and thus has an easier time to drop shot with success and as Jeff points out the list is full of clay courters.

Bublik is an outlier - of course he is.

A lot of people - apart from the obvious trolling - seem to have a hard time to understand what stats can tell. In case of pre-2011 Nole the stats were screaming that this is an outstanding player and incredible returner which had great success despite a relatively bad serve and a lack of variety.

Four years ago the stats for young Sinner showed clearly that he was a remarkable player with a fantastic return but hampered by a terrible serve for his height and his one-speed tennis. Only a fool would think that he was getting into the top10 despite the frozen points thanks to his serve or fitness.

 

[socallefty]

I thought Djokovic would be more successful with his droppers.

You must not be watching his matches closely. He does well when he drop shots from good court position. But he often dropshots as a bailout shot from the baseline or behind when he gets tired during a long rally and loses the point. Happens more as he has gotten older.

Alcaraz in contrast always seems to dropshot when he has good court position.

 

[Spin Diesel]

You must not be watching his matches closely. He does well when he drop shots from good court position. But he often dropshots as a bailout shot from the baseline or behind when he gets tired during a long rally and loses the point. Happens more as he has gotten older.

Alcaraz in contrast always seems to dropshot when he has good court position.

Good point, didn‘t think about those kinds of drop shots.

 

[sortof]

Sinner is clearly good enough to dispose of lesser opponents in 3 or 4 sets. In the 5-setters he has to survive he will face most of the time elite-level players in QFs, semis, or finals. Once all is done he can be pretty pleased if his 5-setter record stands at roughly even.

 

[Neptune]

Agree with what @Rovesciarete said in OP, Fed situation maybe interesting for comparison?

Fed until 2004 Wimby vs Sinner until 2024 Wimby (both born in August and reached No. 1 before their 23rd birthdays):

Overall
Fed 282-114
Sinner 232-78

vs top5
Fed 17-10 (T5 Weight 6.82%)
Sinner 15-23 (T5 Weight 12.26%)

vs top10
Fed 36-28 (T10 Weight 16.16%)
Sinner 29-30 (T10 Weight 19.03%)

5-setter
Fed 6-7 (turn positive only after 2008, 12-11)
Sinner 6-9

Long match >= 3:30
Fed 2-1
Sinner 8-8

Sinner has tougher early years compare to Fed's early years, so Sinner is very impressive overall so far.
He will be fine in most matches but definitely need to pay attention to tougher ones.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Just a little stat update after the fine performance at the net against Medvedev which caught the eye of some. Interesting that Sinner talked about serve and volley in his presser after the victory against Daniil, I think we will see more of it in the years to come. Important as a change up special against particular opponents.

Grigor has remarkable success with it, but against weaker opposition. Jannik seems to have bungled more drop shots this year, but it is a tricky subject as we discussed before. Berrettini profits from mostly natural surfaces, Alcaraz obviously stands out.

ATP Tactics: Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-08-26 (no players with less than 10 games, sorted after net win%)

Player​ Matches​ SnV Freq​ SnV W%​ Net Freq​ Net W%​ FH Wnr%​ FH DTL Wnr%​ FH IO Wnr%​ BH Wnr%​ BH DTL Wnr%​ Drop Freq​ Drop Wnr%​ RallyAgg​ ReturnAgg​ Rafael Nadal​ 10​ 3.2%​ 82.6%​ 9.2%​ 78.7%​ 12.7%​ 16.7%​ 7.3%​ 8.2%​ 11.3%​ 1.3%​ 35.0%​ -49​ -47​ Jannik Sinner​ 59​ 2.8%​ 74.4%​ 10.0%​ 75.1%​ 14.7%​ 18.7%​ 16.4%​ 8.2%​ 25.2%​ 1.5%​ 32.7%​ -30​ -16​ Matteo Berrettini​ 10​ 1.7%​ 66.7%​ 12.5%​ 74.3%​ 16.4%​ 23.3%​ 11.7%​ 5.2%​ 24.3%​ 2.9%​ 49.3%​ 12​ 22​ Grigor Dimitrov​ 32​ 2.5%​ 83.3%​ 11.1%​ 74.1%​ 12.7%​ 19.1%​ 8.9%​ 10.2%​ 27.9%​ 0.9%​ 33.8%​ -38​ -20​ Carlos Alcaraz​ 48​ 8.2%​ 71.9%​ 14.3%​ 73.4%​ 17.3%​ 24.6%​ 15.6%​ 7.8%​ 23.4%​ 3.1%​ 38.4%​ -2​ -2​ Stefanos Tsitsipas​ 31​ 6.3%​ 76.1%​ 12.5%​ 72.1%​ 19.1%​ 24.4%​ 12.7%​ 5.7%​ 19.3%​ 1.9%​ 38.1%​ -10​ -3​ Novak Djokovic​ 47​ 6.5%​ 75.9%​ 14.0%​ 71.7%​ 13.0%​ 16.7%​ 12.7%​ 8.3%​ 21.0%​ 2.0%​ 29.5%​ -50​ -32​

 

[Racquet_smash]

Positive, but not overwhelmingly.

 

[vokazu]

Positive, but not overwhelmingly.

twice

 

[Rovesciarete]

twice

could he win a slam on hardcourt. Imagine a season without his team making him suffer so much. Tsitsipas, Alcaraz and Medvedev got a bit lucky there.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Just a little stat update after the fine performance at the net against Medvedev which caught the eye of some. Interesting that Sinner talked about serve and volley in his presser after the victory against Daniil, I think we will see more of it in the years to come. Important as a change up special against particular opponents.

Grigor has remarkable success with it, but against weaker opposition. Jannik seems to have bungled more drop shots this year, but it is a tricky subject as we discussed before. Berrettini profits from mostly natural surfaces, Alcaraz obviously stands out.

ATP Tactics: Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-08-26 (no players with less than 10 games, sorted after net win%)

Player​ Matches​ SnV Freq​ SnV W%​ Net Freq​ Net W%​ FH Wnr%​ FH DTL Wnr%​ FH IO Wnr%​ BH Wnr%​ BH DTL Wnr%​ Drop Freq​ Drop Wnr%​ RallyAgg​ ReturnAgg​ Rafael Nadal​ 10​ 3.2%​ 82.6%​ 9.2%​ 78.7%​ 12.7%​ 16.7%​ 7.3%​ 8.2%​ 11.3%​ 1.3%​ 35.0%​ -49​ -47​ Jannik Sinner​ 59​ 2.8%​ 74.4%​ 10.0%​ 75.1%​ 14.7%​ 18.7%​ 16.4%​ 8.2%​ 25.2%​ 1.5%​ 32.7%​ -30​ -16​ Matteo Berrettini​ 10​ 1.7%​ 66.7%​ 12.5%​ 74.3%​ 16.4%​ 23.3%​ 11.7%​ 5.2%​ 24.3%​ 2.9%​ 49.3%​ 12​ 22​ Grigor Dimitrov​ 32​ 2.5%​ 83.3%​ 11.1%​ 74.1%​ 12.7%​ 19.1%​ 8.9%​ 10.2%​ 27.9%​ 0.9%​ 33.8%​ -38​ -20​ Carlos Alcaraz​ 48​ 8.2%​ 71.9%​ 14.3%​ 73.4%​ 17.3%​ 24.6%​ 15.6%​ 7.8%​ 23.4%​ 3.1%​ 38.4%​ -2​ -2​ Stefanos Tsitsipas​ 31​ 6.3%​ 76.1%​ 12.5%​ 72.1%​ 19.1%​ 24.4%​ 12.7%​ 5.7%​ 19.3%​ 1.9%​ 38.1%​ -10​ -3​ Novak Djokovic​ 47​ 6.5%​ 75.9%​ 14.0%​ 71.7%​ 13.0%​ 16.7%​ 12.7%​ 8.3%​ 21.0%​ 2.0%​ 29.5%​ -50​ -32​

Probably ok at 30%

These are outright winners and then there would be some points where he won even after opponents reverse dropped or like Medvedev went for flat strokes

He needs to clean up that dropper a lot. It looks dirty

 

[Rovesciarete]

Probably ok at 30%

These are outright winners and then there would be some points where he won even after opponents reverse dropped or like Medvedev went for flat strokes

He needs to clean up that dropper a lot. It looks dirty

Daniil has been reading droppers like a book lately and Sinner tries more IIRC.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Daniil has been reading droppers like a book lately and Sinner tries more IIRC.

Medvedev exposed sinners one dimensional tennis a bit. Yes he played more dropshots and slices but both were terrible.

He needs to keep improving these which I am sure he will. Even his serve variety was bad. Meddy knew the patterns already.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Medvedev exposed sinners one dimensional tennis a bit. Yes he played more dropshots and slices but both were terrible.

He needs to keep improving these which I am sure he will. Even his serve variety was bad. Meddy knew the patterns already.

Three years ago. Interestingly he was always very efficient and has been increasing his volume greatly. Only 7.5% net frequency to 10% now, while improving from 74% to 75% win percentage. Up from almost non-existent drop shot freq of 0.3% to 1.5% while winning still a third. Zero serve and volley, now 2.8% with an average to good win percentage.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2021-10-18 (Elimated all under 10 matches, sorted due to Net Win%)

Player​ Matches​ SnV Freq​ SnV W%​ Net Freq​ Net W%​ FH Wnr%​ FH DTL Wnr%​ FH IO Wnr%​ BH Wnr%​ BH DTL Wnr%​ Drop Freq​ Drop Wnr%​ RallyAgg​ ReturnAgg​ Andrey Rublev​ 23​ 1.3%​ 94.4%​ 6.7%​ 78.1%​ 15.2%​ 21.0%​ 11.9%​ 5.0%​ 19.6%​ 0.3%​ 42.9%​ -38​ -19​ Aslan Karatsev​ 12​ 0.5%​ 80.0%​ 8.6%​ 75.1%​ 16.0%​ 22.7%​ 22.9%​ 9.5%​ 31.8%​ 0.3%​ 30.0%​ 55​ 39​ Botic Van De Zandschulp​ 22​ 0.3%​ 83.3%​ 12.0%​ 74.6%​ 15.7%​ 21.3%​ 10.8%​ 6.2%​ 24.7%​ 2.0%​ 34.5%​ -3​ 21​ Matteo Berrettini​ 11​ 0.6%​ 50.0%​ 8.3%​ 74.2%​ 18.0%​ 24.9%​ 13.6%​ 4.4%​ 24.6%​ 2.6%​ 33.7%​ 29​ 47​ Stefanos Tsitsipas​ 22​ 2.4%​ 74.5%​ 12.7%​ 73.9%​ 15.4%​ 24.2%​ 10.6%​ 6.0%​ 21.9%​ 1.5%​ 28.9%​ -37​ -16​ Jannik Sinner​ 14​ 0.0%​ 0.0%​ 7.5%​ 73.8%​ 13.0%​ 18.1%​ 16.8%​ 5.6%​ 24.7%​ 0.3%​ 33.3%​ -32​ -25​

 

[nolefam_2024]

Three years ago. Interestingly he was always very efficient and has been increasing his volume greatly. Only 7.5% net frequency to 10% now, while improving from 74% to 75% win percentage. Up from almost non-existent drop shot freq of 0.3% to 1.5% while winning still a third. Zero serve and volley, now 2.8% with an average to good win percentage.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2021-10-18 (Elimated all under 10 matches, sorted due to Net Win%)

Player​ Matches​ SnV Freq​ SnV W%​ Net Freq​ Net W%​ FH Wnr%​ FH DTL Wnr%​ FH IO Wnr%​ BH Wnr%​ BH DTL Wnr%​ Drop Freq​ Drop Wnr%​ RallyAgg​ ReturnAgg​ Andrey Rublev​ 23​ 1.3%​ 94.4%​ 6.7%​ 78.1%​ 15.2%​ 21.0%​ 11.9%​ 5.0%​ 19.6%​ 0.3%​ 42.9%​ -38​ -19​ Aslan Karatsev​ 12​ 0.5%​ 80.0%​ 8.6%​ 75.1%​ 16.0%​ 22.7%​ 22.9%​ 9.5%​ 31.8%​ 0.3%​ 30.0%​ 55​ 39​ Botic Van De Zandschulp​ 22​ 0.3%​ 83.3%​ 12.0%​ 74.6%​ 15.7%​ 21.3%​ 10.8%​ 6.2%​ 24.7%​ 2.0%​ 34.5%​ -3​ 21​ Matteo Berrettini​ 11​ 0.6%​ 50.0%​ 8.3%​ 74.2%​ 18.0%​ 24.9%​ 13.6%​ 4.4%​ 24.6%​ 2.6%​ 33.7%​ 29​ 47​ Stefanos Tsitsipas​ 22​ 2.4%​ 74.5%​ 12.7%​ 73.9%​ 15.4%​ 24.2%​ 10.6%​ 6.0%​ 21.9%​ 1.5%​ 28.9%​ -37​ -16​ Jannik Sinner​ 14​ 0.0%​ 0.0%​ 7.5%​ 73.8%​ 13.0%​ 18.1%​ 16.8%​ 5.6%​ 24.7%​ 0.3%​ 33.3%​ -32​ -25​

Interesting
How can we get backdated stats
Would be fun to see Roger in 2010s vs mugs of this gen.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Interesting
How can we get backdated stats
Would be fun to see Roger in 2010s vs mugs of this gen.

www.archive.org, search for tennisabstract.com

Sadly we lack much of the old data