Slam Distribution, and Slam Race in 2021

DanG7

Rookie
Federer- 6 Australian, 1 French, 8 Wimbledon, 5 US
Nadal- 1 Australian, 13 French, 2 Wimbledon, 4 US
Djokovic- 8 Australian, 1 French, 5 Wimbledon, 3 US.

Federer- 2nd, T2, 1st, 1st
Nadal- 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd
Djokovic- 1st, T2, 2nd, 3rd.

AO-Djokovic will never be passed
French- Nadal will never be passed
Wimbledon- Federer will never be passed
US- Djokovic or Nadal could match Federer on 5 but very unlikely either will ever pass his tally of 5.

If Rafa wins 2-3 more RG to go to 22/23 total, but never won another away from RG, Federer still has the better all around resume and would lead in 3/4 of the slams. On the other hand, in terms of just one surface, Nadals achievement will never be matched or surpassed. Djokovic also in his own right has been a giant, and may well go on to match 20 + but it gets difficult each slam that goes by.

Predictions 2021

AO- GOATHOOD at stake, Rafa, Djokovic will be raring for title but Roger will also have a chance if his preparation and recovery in 2020 has gone smoothly. With Thiem also a threat and players like Medvedev and Tsistipas trying to make the breakthrough, the AO isn’t a lock for any of the Big 3. Favourite- Djokovic. People’s champion- Federer (the final dance), nadal- won’t beat Djokovic on this court in my opinion but might have a chance if Djokovic goes out in a surprise defeat. Same goes for Fed, unless he comes back in some 2017 neo backhand type of form, Thiem a massive threat- courts seemed to play perfectly for him last year and with a bit more mental resolve could get past the Djokovic hurdle if he faces him again. Hardest slam of the year to predict but would have to put Novak as current obvious fav.

RG- favourite. What’s that Spanish chap called. Won it 13 times already. Oh yeah. Nadal. 85 percent locked in. Only man who can put up a decent fight is a fresh thiem. Theim on fire at 100% only man on the planet who could do it, however we don’t know how reaching 20 is going to effect Rafa going forward. Roger probably doesn’t turn up. Djokovic semis or final, beaten by Thiem or nadal. Nadal wins and takes the all time record 21. But then-

Wimby- If Roger comes back healthy he will be more determined than ever to get 1 last Wimbledon, this is his big chance for 21. Only player in the field who looks as comfortable on grass is Novak, and I still back him over nadal. Next gen still haven’t learnt how to play on grass. Fed comes out firing and motivated to get level. Can he peak at the right time to beat The obvious man standing in his way, Novak. Of course he can, he came so close in 2019 and he will be desperate to put that right. To make things easier, Would help if a journeyman took Djokovic out, 2016 querrey or 17 berdman
21-21 and the fairytale continues.

US open- anyone’s game. Some of the new guys might have had some success and new found confidence. Theim is the defending champ. In all likelihood, if all three of the big 3 play this tournament, the title will probably drop to any 3 of them, in ranking order Djokovic fav, then nadal, then federer. Be interesting to see if Fed enjoys the courts, I think he would have enjoyed 2020 US conditions. If not Thiem, medvedev or Tsistipas.

end of 2021 slam race-
Djokovic 18
Nadal 21
Federer 21
Someone not named federer, Djokovic, nadal +1
 
Nice analysis. Fed does well with leading in 2/4 slams and having large numbers in 3. The concentration of clay slams, clay masters, and no WTFs puts Nadal out of contention for GOAT unless he wins multiple non clay slams going forward. It’s hard to imagine how someone who never won at least a few WTF titles could be the greatest player. Greatest slam player, maybe, if he gets those non clay slams.

It’s clear that Fed was the most dominant player in tennis for the longest stretch (TMC 2003 - TMC 2007), while the other two were (are) more consistent over time for much longer.

WTF is not a major. If you make it a must-win you are making it a de facto major, which is incorrect.

Also, people tend to get neurotic with surface distribution. You need to show ability on all 4 surfaces. Nadal has 5 majors on HC and 2 on Grass, and 10 major finals on HC and 5 on Grass. To put it another way, Nadal's wins and total finals off of clay are basically equal to Agassi's career. That's enough.
 
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Federer- 6 Australian, 1 French, 8 Wimbledon, 5 US
Nadal- 1 Australian, 13 French, 2 Wimbledon, 4 US
Djokovic- 8 Australian, 1 French, 5 Wimbledon, 3 US.

Federer- 2nd, T2, 1st, 1st
Nadal- 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd
Djokovic- 1st, T2, 2nd, 3rd.

AO-Djokovic will never be passed
French- Nadal will never be passed
Wimbledon- Federer will never be passed
US- Djokovic or Nadal could match Federer on 5 but very unlikely either will ever pass his tally of 5.

If Rafa wins 2-3 more RG to go to 22/23 total, but never won another away from RG, Federer still has the better all around resume and would lead in 3/4 of the slams. On the other hand, in terms of just one surface, Nadals achievement will never be matched or surpassed. Djokovic also in his own right has been a giant, and may well go on to match 20 + but it gets difficult each slam that goes by.

Predictions 2021

AO- GOATHOOD at stake, Rafa, Djokovic will be raring for title but Roger will also have a chance if his preparation and recovery in 2020 has gone smoothly. With Thiem also a threat and players like Medvedev and Tsistipas trying to make the breakthrough, the AO isn’t a lock for any of the Big 3. Favourite- Djokovic. People’s champion- Federer (the final dance), nadal- won’t beat Djokovic on this court in my opinion but might have a chance if Djokovic goes out in a surprise defeat. Same goes for Fed, unless he comes back in some 2017 neo backhand type of form, Thiem a massive threat- courts seemed to play perfectly for him last year and with a bit more mental resolve could get past the Djokovic hurdle if he faces him again. Hardest slam of the year to predict but would have to put Novak as current obvious fav.

RG- favourite. What’s that Spanish chap called. Won it 13 times already. Oh yeah. Nadal. 85 percent locked in. Only man who can put up a decent fight is a fresh thiem. Theim on fire at 100% only man on the planet who could do it, however we don’t know how reaching 20 is going to effect Rafa going forward. Roger probably doesn’t turn up. Djokovic semis or final, beaten by Thiem or nadal. Nadal wins and takes the all time record 21. But then-

Wimby- If Roger comes back healthy he will be more determined than ever to get 1 last Wimbledon, this is his big chance for 21. Only player in the field who looks as comfortable on grass is Novak, and I still back him over nadal. Next gen still haven’t learnt how to play on grass. Fed comes out firing and motivated to get level. Can he peak at the right time to beat The obvious man standing in his way, Novak. Of course he can, he came so close in 2019 and he will be desperate to put that right. To make things easier, Would help if a journeyman took Djokovic out, 2016 querrey or 17 berdman
21-21 and the fairytale continues.

US open- anyone’s game. Some of the new guys might have had some success and new found confidence. Theim is the defending champ. In all likelihood, if all three of the big 3 play this tournament, the title will probably drop to any 3 of them, in ranking order Djokovic fav, then nadal, then federer. Be interesting to see if Fed enjoys the courts, I think he would have enjoyed 2020 US conditions. If not Thiem, medvedev or Tsistipas.

end of 2021 slam race-
Djokovic 18
Nadal 21
Federer 21
Someone not named federer, Djokovic, nadal +1
Moya has been molding a more aggressive Nadal since start of 2019, not out of question for him to take all 4 slams.

Thiem has worked hard with Massu to develop his hard court game. With all his success very likely he’ll be a Wimbledon contender.

Among NextGen even Rublev is capable of going deep at slams and has tuned Federer. No matches with Djokovic so we can’t assume he’ll be Nole’s poodle like Shapo (whose burgeoning game may work well at Wimbledon). Tsitsipas bled Novak at RG; they will become stern tests at the later stages of slams ongoing.

2021 hard to predict. Australian Open could be a hotbed especially with Rublev doing well on the surface. Hope we have ATP Cup for a great preview.:love:
 
What if Thiem amazingly is the two seed and Rafa in Nole’s half? Fraud more than capable of vulturing Wimby.:eek:
I don’t think Nadal is a threat to Novak outside of clay (assuming no injuries and all players playing well). Look at the 2020 results, Novak won much more.
 
If Rafa wins 2-3 more RG to go to 22/23 total, but never won another away from RG, Federer still has the better all around resume and would lead in 3/4 of the slams

Even if Nadal wins 4 more AO and 5 more Wimbledons for a total of 29 slams Federer would still lead 3/4 of the slams. I don’t think that argument really matters at the end of the day.

The most important thing right now is for Federer to come back at a high level because it will be sad if he doesn’t. I would really love to see him win another slam especially after Wimbledon 2019, It would be great if he could erase that memory.
 
Even if Nadal wins 4 more AO and 5 more Wimbledons for a total of 29 slams Federer would still lead 3/4 of the slams. I don’t think that argument really matters at the end of the day.

The most important thing right now is for Federer to come back at a high level because it will be sad if he doesn’t. I would really love to see him win another slam especially after Wimbledon 2019, It would be great if he could erase that memory.

Lol, correct. That's why the "more at 3/4" is such nonsense.

To put it another way, you could have Fed at 2-0-2-2 and Nadal at 1-13-1-1, and he'd STILL be leading at 3 of the 4!
 
It is what we have. Nivak won the most points so far this year follwed by Thiem (if my math is right).
Too few matches for stats to work well this year. ATP Cup also very abnormal event.

Example:
/ 2020 ATP Cup
QFHardNovak Djokovic Denis Shapovalov4-6 6-1 7-6(4)H2H
RR AHardDenis ShapovalovAlexander Zverev6-2 6-2H2H
RR AHardAlex DE Minaur Denis Shapovalov6-7(6) 6-4 6-2H2H
RR AHardDenis ShapovalovStefanos Tsitsipas7-6(6) 7-6(4)H2H
47 / 2019 AUS VS CAN - DC - QF
I HardAlex DE Minaur Denis Shapovalov3-6 6-3 7-5H2H
47 / 2019 DC - Group F
I HardDenis ShapovalovTaylor Harry Fritz7-6(6) 6-3H2H
I HardDenis ShapovalovMatteo Berrettini7-6(5) 6-7(3) 7-6(5)H2H
47 / 2019 ESP VS CAN - DC - F
I HardRafael Nadal Denis Shapovalov6-3 7-6(7)H2H
47 / 2019 RUS VS CAN - DC - SF
I HardDenis ShapovalovKaren Khachanov6-4 4-6 6-4H2H
44 / 2019 Paris Masters
FI HardNovak Djokovic Denis Shapovalov6-3 6-4H2H
SFI HardDenis ShapovalovRafael Nadalw/oH2H
QFI HardDenis ShapovalovGael Monfils6-2 6-2H2H
R16I HardDenis ShapovalovAlexander Zverev6-2 5-7 6-2H2H

Almost all top ten players for 13 straight matches. Reverse may happen too.
 
Moya has been molding a more aggressive Nadal since start of 2019, not out of question for him to take all 4 slams.

Thiem has worked hard with Massu to develop his hard court game. With all his success very likely he’ll be a Wimbledon contender.

Among NextGen even Rublev is capable of going deep at slams and has tuned Federer. No matches with Djokovic so we can’t assume he’ll be Nole’s poodle like Shapo (whose burgeoning game may work well at Wimbledon). Tsitsipas bled Novak at RG; they will become stern tests at the later stages of slams ongoing.

2021 hard to predict. Australian Open could be a hotbed especially with Rublev doing well on the surface. Hope we have ATP Cup for a great preview.:love:

hope your right, because it’s about time some fresh faces started winning big trophies. They have the skill, talent and work-ethic but do they have the mental capacity.
 
Lol, correct. That's why the "more at 3/4" is such nonsense.

To put it another way, you could have Fed at 2-0-2-2 and Nadal at 1-13-1-1, and he'd STILL be leading at 3 of the 4!
That’s not the point though. You make it sound like it’s close but it’s not. The AO and Wimbledon tallies are at a great discrepancy.- 6/1 and 8/2 respectively. Unlikely in my opinion that nadal closes the gap either with better players suited to each tournament.
 
YE 2021: 21-20-20
YE 2022: 23-21-20 (ret)
YE 2023: 25-21(ret)-20 (ret)
YE 2024: 26(ret)-21-20
Who is who in that scenario? I guess you have Federer retiring first just because of his age, but who are the other two? For sure it cannot be Nadal retiring in 2023 when the Olympics in 2024 will be played at RG?
 
That’s not the point though. You make it sound like it’s close but it’s not. The AO and Wimbledon tallies are at a great discrepancy.- 6/1 and 8/2 respectively. Unlikely in my opinion that nadal closes the gap either with better players suited to each tournament.

Seems like it is the point since you are now arguing number of majors and not the fact that Fed leads in more categories.
 
I don’t think Nadal is a threat to Novak outside of clay (assuming no injuries and all players playing well). Look at the 2020 results, Novak won much more.

You're making the same mistake as Goran. Novak is of course the favourite against Nadal outside of clay but he's too good to not beat Djokovic again. Their last ATP cup second set was close and Nadal was fired up.
 
You're making the same mistake as Goran. Novak is of course the favourite against Nadal outside of clay but he's too good to not beat Djokovic again. Their last ATP cup second set was close and Nadal was fired up.
Don’t disagree. But to me a “threat” has to be a player that has a substantial chance of beating you. That simply isn’t Nadal in HC given his record the past 7 years. Grass may be a different story but we have too few data points to judge
 
Don’t disagree. But to me a “threat” has to be a player that has a substantial chance of beating you. That simply isn’t Nadal in HC given his record the past 7 years. Grass may be a different story but we have too few data points to judge

The past means nothing if he's playing very good and not afraid of Novak which I don't think he is now. Kudos to Novak for winning their last HC meetings since 2013, although would have lost in 2017 or early 2018. I hope we get one more AO final between them.
 
hope your right, because it’s about time some fresh faces started winning big trophies. They have the skill, talent and work-ethic but do they have the mental capacity.
With Tim suddenly a 4 slam threat I won’t mind if they take their time.;)
 
Federer- 6 Australian, 1 French, 8 Wimbledon, 5 US
Nadal- 1 Australian, 13 French, 2 Wimbledon, 4 US
Djokovic- 8 Australian, 1 French, 5 Wimbledon, 3 US.

Federer- 2nd, T2, 1st, 1st
Nadal- 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd
Djokovic- 1st, T2, 2nd, 3rd.

AO-Djokovic will never be passed
French- Nadal will never be passed
Wimbledon- Federer will never be passed
US- Djokovic or Nadal could match Federer on 5 but very unlikely either will ever pass his tally of 5.

If Rafa wins 2-3 more RG to go to 22/23 total, but never won another away from RG, Federer still has the better all around resume and would lead in 3/4 of the slams. On the other hand, in terms of just one surface, Nadals achievement will never be matched or surpassed. Djokovic also in his own right has been a giant, and may well go on to match 20 + but it gets difficult each slam that goes by.

Predictions 2021

AO- GOATHOOD at stake, Rafa, Djokovic will be raring for title but Roger will also have a chance if his preparation and recovery in 2020 has gone smoothly. With Thiem also a threat and players like Medvedev and Tsistipas trying to make the breakthrough, the AO isn’t a lock for any of the Big 3. Favourite- Djokovic. People’s champion- Federer (the final dance), nadal- won’t beat Djokovic on this court in my opinion but might have a chance if Djokovic goes out in a surprise defeat. Same goes for Fed, unless he comes back in some 2017 neo backhand type of form, Thiem a massive threat- courts seemed to play perfectly for him last year and with a bit more mental resolve could get past the Djokovic hurdle if he faces him again. Hardest slam of the year to predict but would have to put Novak as current obvious fav.

RG- favourite. What’s that Spanish chap called. Won it 13 times already. Oh yeah. Nadal. 85 percent locked in. Only man who can put up a decent fight is a fresh thiem. Theim on fire at 100% only man on the planet who could do it, however we don’t know how reaching 20 is going to effect Rafa going forward. Roger probably doesn’t turn up. Djokovic semis or final, beaten by Thiem or nadal. Nadal wins and takes the all time record 21. But then-

Wimby- If Roger comes back healthy he will be more determined than ever to get 1 last Wimbledon, this is his big chance for 21. Only player in the field who looks as comfortable on grass is Novak, and I still back him over nadal. Next gen still haven’t learnt how to play on grass. Fed comes out firing and motivated to get level. Can he peak at the right time to beat The obvious man standing in his way, Novak. Of course he can, he came so close in 2019 and he will be desperate to put that right. To make things easier, Would help if a journeyman took Djokovic out, 2016 querrey or 17 berdman
21-21 and the fairytale continues.

US open- anyone’s game. Some of the new guys might have had some success and new found confidence. Theim is the defending champ. In all likelihood, if all three of the big 3 play this tournament, the title will probably drop to any 3 of them, in ranking order Djokovic fav, then nadal, then federer. Be interesting to see if Fed enjoys the courts, I think he would have enjoyed 2020 US conditions. If not Thiem, medvedev or Tsistipas.

end of 2021 slam race-
Djokovic 18
Nadal 21
Federer 21
Someone not named federer, Djokovic, nadal +1
Rookie
 
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