So, when will the next opportunity present itself for Next Gen?

Krish872007

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
Novak Djokovic has won his 9th Australian Open title, and it all happened so fast today! Elation, joy, marvel at such perseverance and the ability to deliver once again on the biggest of stages.

Alongside Federer & Nadal, tennis' "Big 3" now have a combined 66 Slams to their name (as of end-2023). Throw Andy Murray into the Mix and it's 69 Slams and over a decade of consistently competing at the latter stages of Slams
Since Federer won his very first Slam at Wimbledon 2003, no 2 consecutive Slams have been won by non-Big 4 members in the last 20.5 years.

French Open is coming up further down the line and Nadal will be licking his chops for the chance to add a 14th title there.
Wimbledon - the absolute fortress of the Big 3 / 4 (including Andy) where no one else has even been allowed to sniff the trophy since 2002. And seems like the rest of the pack still needs time to get to grips with grass.

Seems like the US Open is the earliest realistic opportunity now for a new Slam champ? Given biggest strides have been made on hardcourts so far.
Barring injuries of course. US Open 2020 - only 1 of the Big 3 / 4 even played the tournament so going to be very difficult when more of them are involved I guess.

Today was a HUGE match really. The first time where people had genuine faith in Next Gen representative over the Old Guard. But the Djoko Dynasty responded swiftly and emphatically. Not saying that this is a huge setback for the younger guys, but surely demoralising.
 
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Djokovic still winning everything at age 34 is a joke, really. You can say Med just played a bad match (he always pushed Djokovic in their previous meetings) but no excuses to why all the young players lost at this tournament.
 
Krish872007 said:
Novak Djokovic has won his 9th Australian Open title, and it all happened so fast today! Elation, joy, marvel at such perseverance and the ability to deliver once again on the biggest of stages.

Alongside Federer & Nadal, tennis' "Big 3" now have a combined 58 Slams to their name.
Since Federer won his very first Slam at Wimbledon 2003, no 2 consecutive Slams have been won by non-Big 3 members in the last 17.5 years.

French Open is coming up further down the line and Nadal will be licking his chops for the chance to add a 14th title there.
Wimbledon - the absolute fortress of the Big 3 / 4 (including Andy) where no one else has even been allowed to sniff the trophy since 2002. And seems like the rest of the pack still needs time to get to grips with grass.

Seems like the US Open is the earliest realistic opportunity now for a new Slam champ? Given biggest strides have been made on hardcourts so far.
Barring injuries of course. US Open 2020 - only 1 of the Big 3 / 4 even played the tournament so going to be very difficult when more of them are involved I guess.

Today was a HUGE match really. The first time where people had genuine faith in Next Gen representative over the Old Guard. But the Djoko Dynasty responded swiftly and emphatically. Not saying that this is a huge setback for the younger guys, but surely demoralising.
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Andy and Wawrinka won Wimbledon 2016 and US Open 2016. So not entirely true that no big 3 won 2 consecutive slams
 
Krish872007 said:
Yeah in theory "Lost Gen" but not as truly lost as the rest of them
I was thinking about the younger lot as well
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Even if we include Tim, I'd personally still say USO 2021. I just don't really rate Thiem as highly as most people here when it comes to RG. Been hearing for four years straight now about how "This will be the year" he takes out Nadal there. And he hasn't even been remotely close.

As for Wimbledon, that might be even more futile (if that's even possible) with how bad they are on grass. Maybe Borna Coric can put it all together on the Wimbledon grass for a change? Maybe. But all the way to a title? No way. The only other Next Gen remotely competent on grass is probably Berrettini and that isn't happening either.

All a Djokovic Wimbledon loss would really do is open the door for Federer or Nadal to win it.

So that leaves you with the USO by default.

Today was a huge loss for any actual fan of the Next Gen players with very few (if any - to me there were zero) silver linings.
 
Federer and Del Potro said:
Even if we include Tim, I'd personally still say USO 2021. I just don't really rate Thiem as highly as most people here when it comes to RG. Been hearing for four years straight now about how "This will be the year" he takes out Nadal there. And he hasn't even been remotely close.

As for Wimbledon, that might be even more futile (if that's even possible) with how bad they are on grass. Maybe Borna Coric can put it all together on the Wimbledon grass for a change? Maybe. But all the way to a title? No way. The only other Next Gen remotely competent on grass is probably Berrettini and that isn't happening either.

All a Djokovic Wimbledon loss would really do is open the door for Federer or Nadal to win it.

So that leaves you with the USO by default.

Today was a huge loss for any actual fan of the Next Gen players with very few (if any - to me there were zero) silver linings.
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Difficult to tell if the gap is widening or narrowing. Feel like it's narrowed significantly in best of 3 format but actually widened in Slams.
Berrettini on grass won 5 games against Fred in 2019 right? Not exactly world-beating so agree in principle that Big 3 are all favoured there. Can call it their collective "pet Slam".
 
Krish872007 said:
Difficult to tell if the gap is widening or narrowing. Feel like it's narrowed significantly in best of 3 format but actually widened in Slams.
Berrettini on grass won 5 games against Fred in 2019 right? Not exactly world-beating so agree in principle that Big 3 are all favoured there. Can call it their collective "pet Slam".
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Exactly, Matteo had his chance to make a statement and made one in the utterly wrong direction lol. I forgot Zverev is also fairly decent on grass. But even with those 3, which is generous at best if you include them as any sort of contenders - they are not going to win 7 straight bo5's on grass lol.

Then I don't even know which of them can make noise at the French. Maybe the Greek. But he seems to lack the fitness for an entire slam winning run.

It's looking dire for the Next Gen right now. In terms of short term prospects.
 
Every slam is a new opportunity, but will they take it? I would like to see how they fare under normal circumstances, no COVID, no quarantines.
 
Well, let's say Nadal and Djokovic will be in the SF of both the French Open and Wimbledon, who will be their opponents ?

Based on the last slams, I wouldn't be surprised if Tsitsipas reached other semi finals this year. Zverev I don't know, I don't feel like he is that concerned, he seems a bit off right now. Otherwise, maybe Shapovalov, Rublev or Sinner will make a first SF.
Of course there is Thiem who can be an outsider at the FO, but he is not a Next Gen.

So, I don't know if Next Genners will be dangerous for Djokodal, but they will sure meet again very soon
 
Dominic & Andrey said:
Well, let's say Nadal and Djokovic will be in the SF of both the French Open and Wimbledon, who will be their opponents ?

Based on the last slams, I wouldn't be surprised if Tsitsipas reached other semi finals this year. Zverev I don't know, I don't feel like he is that concerned, he seems a bit off right now. Otherwise, maybe Shapovalov, Rublev or Sinner will make a first SF.
Of course there is Thiem who can be an outsider at the FO, but he is not a Next Gen.

So, I don't know if Next Genners will be dangerous for Djokodal, but they will sure meet again very soon
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French Open - anyone's guess really
The focus will be on Thiem for sure - they'll most likely have at least 1 Next Gen / Lost Gen SFist there.

Wimbledon - different ball game
IF Federer returns motivated, healthy and with a good level he'll feature in the late stages there. Door still open for others if they can get it together but it could equally be someone like Isner / Anderson / Raonic who know how to navigate through the draw on that surface
 
Red Rick said:
Rotterdam.
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761842.jpg
 
Probably the USO.

But unless Djokovic throats Karen again and Nadal is not playing, even the USO is out of the cards.
 
Today was a truly terrible day for the next-gen. Big 3 really do need to be crippled for them to win Slams. Hell, Djokovic was and they still couldn’t do it back when he was still playing hit-or-miss in the earlier rounds.

I’m literally done hyping them now. I should have been a long time ago but, yeah.

Their next opportunity should be the US Open this year as that tournament seems more open than the other Slams. Barring a complete collective collapse from the Big 3, I can’t see any of them converting the win. And I’m not even sure on that because that did happen last year’s USO but Zed still lost to Thiem.

Rant over.
 
Third Serve said:
Today was a truly terrible day for the next-gen. Big 3 really do need to be crippled for them to win Slams. Hell, Djokovic was and they still couldn’t do it back when he was still playing hit-or-miss in the earlier rounds.

I’m literally done hyping them now. I should have been a long time ago but, yeah.

Their next opportunity should be the US Open this year as that tournament seems more open than the other Slams. Barring a complete collective collapse from the Big 3, I can’t see any of them converting the win. And I’m not even sure on that because that did happen last year’s USO but Zed still lost to Thiem.

Rant over.
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Yeah, curious how people will defend this performance. He was fresh, didn't have to perform the Djokodal combo and Djokovic himself wasn't playing great tennis before the final dropping 5 sets on the way to the final for the only time in his career.

This AO and last year's USO does kinda prove that the Next Gen are useless and they'd be useless in any era. Forget about Djokodal. These guys wouldn't even stand a chance against Murray and Stan.
 
Krish872007 said:
French Open - anyone's guess really
The focus will be on Thiem for sure - they'll most likely have at least 1 Next Gen / Lost Gen SFist there.

Wimbledon - different ball game
IF Federer returns motivated, healthy and with a good level he'll feature in the late stages there. Door still open for others if they can get it together but it could equally be someone like Isner / Anderson / Raonic who know how to navigate through the draw on that surface
Click to expand...

Even at Wimbledon I don't see Federer reaching the SF, we will see but the guy is almost 40, physically I don't think he can do it at this point.
 
mike danny said:
Yeah, curious how people will defend this performance. He was fresh, didn't have to perform the Djokodal combo and Djokovic himself wasn't playing great tennis before the final dropping 5 sets on the way to the final for the only time in his career.

This AO and last year's USO does kinda prove that the Next Gen are useless and they'd be useless in any era. Forget about Djokodal. These guys wouldn't even stand a chance against Murray and Stan.
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Roddick and Hewitt too, honestly.
 
Third Serve said:
Roddick and Hewitt too, honestly.
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True. Roddick has his 2003 summer run and those 2 Wimb finals against Fed that will always stand out.

Hewitt has his USO title and his AO 2004, Wimb 2004 and USO 2005 matches against Fed weren't bad at all.

At the very least they were playing against Fed at his best, not a mid 30's Fed.
 
Dominic & Andrey said:
Even at Wimbledon I don't see Federer reaching the SF, we will see but the guy is almost 40, physically I don't think he can do it at this point.
Click to expand...

Will be very interesting to see how this unfolds now
Frankly I would never write the guy off unless he comes back playing at Challenger level in Doha / Dubai. If he's not there at the back end of Wimbledon it's anyone's game. If RBA can make a Wimbledon SF then any younger baseliner can do it in theory
 
Wimbledon 2019 didn't inspire much confidence and RG is Rafa's to lose so USO I guess. Usual suspects, Medvedev, Thiem and Zverev.
 
DM is no longer next gen. nor is thiem. it's this gen. and this gen aint good enough. they don't have the "it factor"....

maybe Sinner and FAA and that gen can save tennis.

Krish872007 said:
Novak Djokovic has won his 9th Australian Open title, and it all happened so fast today! Elation, joy, marvel at such perseverance and the ability to deliver once again on the biggest of stages.

Alongside Federer & Nadal, tennis' "Big 3" now have a combined 58 Slams to their name. Throw Andy Murray into the Mix and it's 61 Slams and over a decade of consistently competing at the latter stages of Slams
Since Federer won his very first Slam at Wimbledon 2003, no 2 consecutive Slams have been won by non-Big 4 members in the last 17.5 years.

French Open is coming up further down the line and Nadal will be licking his chops for the chance to add a 14th title there.
Wimbledon - the absolute fortress of the Big 3 / 4 (including Andy) where no one else has even been allowed to sniff the trophy since 2002. And seems like the rest of the pack still needs time to get to grips with grass.

Seems like the US Open is the earliest realistic opportunity now for a new Slam champ? Given biggest strides have been made on hardcourts so far.
Barring injuries of course. US Open 2020 - only 1 of the Big 3 / 4 even played the tournament so going to be very difficult when more of them are involved I guess.

Today was a HUGE match really. The first time where people had genuine faith in Next Gen representative over the Old Guard. But the Djoko Dynasty responded swiftly and emphatically. Not saying that this is a huge setback for the younger guys, but surely demoralising.
Click to expand...
 
In their fairness, they've actually gotten to the big 3 now

Theim lost 3 times to Nadal and once to Novak at the French since 2016
Thiem lost to Nadal at the USO in 2018 and Novak in AO in 2020

Medvedev lost to Nadal in the USO and Djok at the AO in the midst of his two hot streaks

Stefanos has played all of the big 3 now at majors too (beating Fedal)

Berrrettini played Fedal at slams but got crushed both times as expected

Sinner put up a good fight against Rafa for a set and a half on PC

Zverev is still a pigeon at slams though lol
 
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dunlop_fort_knox said:
DM is no longer next gen. nor is thiem. it's this gen. and this gen aint good enough. they don't have the "it factor"....

maybe Sinner and FAA and that gen can save tennis.
Click to expand...

Sinner possibly, the most exciting prospect right now

FAA - should address his 0-7 record in tour finals and 0-14 sets record. Sinner currently 2-0 (plus 1-0 in the Milan NextGen finals)
 
clout said:
In their fairness, they've actually gotten to the big 3 now

Theim lost 3 times to Nadal and once to Novak at the French since 2016
Thiem lost to Nadal at the USO in 2018 and Novak in AO in 2020

Medvedev lost to Nadal in the USO and Djok at the AO

Stefanos has played all of the big 3 now at majors too (beating Fedal)

Berrrettini played Fedal at slams but got crushed both times as expected

Sinner put up a good fight against Rafa for a set and a half on PC

Zverev is still a pigeon at slams though lol
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Well, sure, in that sense it's progress, but they're all supposed to be in their primes now and still not making it close with them when a slam is on the line.
 
clout said:
In their fairness, they've actually gotten to the big 3 now

Theim lost 3 times to Nadal and once to Novak at the French since 2016
Thiem lost to Nadal at the USO in 2018 and Novak in AO in 2020

Medvedev lost to Nadal in the USO and Djok at the AO

Stefanos has played all of the big 3 now at majors too (beating Fedal)

Berrrettini played Fedal at slams but got crushed both times as expected

Sinner put up a good fight against Rafa for a set and a half on PC

Zverev is still a pigeon at slams though lol
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Yes but so far their victories are Bo3. All the players except Thiem outside big 3 lack the physique to play in slams.

I don't even fancy them in a slam match against 40 years old Federer.
 
Red Rick said:
I maintain these guys aren't better than the Berds, Tsongas and Del Potros of this world. Somehow the dark horses went from guys with some huge weapons and some weaknesses to guys who are very consistent but somehow don't have major weapons.
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Berd played such a solid match against 2012 Nadal at the AO. Makes me wonder how he'd have done against 2021 Nadal.
 
Krish872007 said:
Difficult to tell if the gap is widening or narrowing. Feel like it's narrowed significantly in best of 3 format but actually widened in Slams.
Berrettini on grass won 5 games against Fred in 2019 right? Not exactly world-beating so agree in principle that Big 3 are all favoured there. Can call it their collective "pet Slam".
Click to expand...
What seems to be clear is the Big 3 are solely focused on slams now, especially now that Novak has locked up the weeks at #1 record. They are happy to let the younger guys fight it out for the BO3 tournaments. The M1000s are just there to tune them up for AO, RG, W and USO. They only care about the tour finals if it impacts YE #1, otherwise they don't want to expend too much energy or get hurt going into the offseason with AO only a couple of months away.
 
Bump and update to OP.
Slam winners since that OP from almost 3 years ago:

Djokovic
Djokovic
Medvedev
Nadal
Nadal
Djokovic
Alcaraz
Djokovic
Djokovic
Alcaraz
Djokovic

Novak basically holding everyone off on his own now. He's proved he's the best by some distance and it will take a while before we see someone else take over
 
Krish872007 said:
Bump and update to OP.
Slam winners since that OP from almost 3 years ago:

Djokovic
Djokovic
Medvedev
Nadal
Nadal
Djokovic
Alcaraz
Djokovic
Djokovic
Alcaraz
Djokovic

Novak basically holding everyone off on his own now. He's proved he's the best by some distance and it will take a while before we see someone else take over
Click to expand...

Don't forget to get your Wimbledon 2024 tickets - plenty available in the app.
 
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