GabeT
G.O.A.T.
Very interesting analysis at The Economist.
https://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2017/09/draws-tennis?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/
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THE RACE is on. Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, the two men who dominated men’s tennis from 2005-10, have enjoyed a startling resurgence in 2017, splitting the year’s four grand-slam titles. Mr Federer picked up his wins at the Australian Open (where he defeated Mr Nadal in a five-set final) and Wimbledon, while his long-time rival paired his tenth French Open crown with this year’s US Open title. Mr Nadal cruised to the championship in New York, dropping only one set in his last four matches and polishing it off on September 10th with a routine win over South Africa’s Kevin Anderson, 6-3 6-3 6-4.
The latest trophy represents Mr Nadal’s 16th major title, second only to Mr Federer’s 19. Even as pundits have predicted for years that one or the other is finished as an elite player—especially Mr Federer, who turned 36 last month—there is no end in sight for this two-man race. The only other active player in range—Novak Djokovic, with 12—hasn’t claimed a victory since last year’s French Open, and is sitting out the second half of this season with an elbow injury. Andy Murray, the fourth member of the “Big Four” of men’s tennis, holds only three majors, and thanks to a hip injury, he too is missing much of the 2017 season.
....
Both Mr Federer and Mr Nadal have faced some easy draws and some hard ones—that’s the nature of a sport in which every tournament begins with an empty bracket and a lottery. But the lotteries—and the career trajectories of the strongest members of tennis’s supporting cast—have tended to benefit Mr Federer. The average grand-slam title run requires beating a set of opponents that the typical champion would defeat 23% of the time. Only eight of Mr Federer’s 19 major titles have come against competition more difficult than that. But 13 of Mr Nadal’s 16 championships have required him to confront harder-than-average obstacles. Suddenly, the difference between 19 and 16 isn’t as clear-cut as it initially seemed.
In fact, when we adjust those two numbers for difficulty, the King of Clay proves to be the king of tennis—period. On average, Mr Nadal’s titles are worth 1.18 majors apiece, while Mr Federer’s work out to 0.98 each. I’ll save you the multiplication: Mr Nadal comes out on top by the narrowest of margins, 18.8 to 18.7. The adjustment gives Mr Djokovic more credit as well, upping his total from 12 to 15.3 and swapping his fourth-place position on the traditional list with Pete Sampras’s third. It’s a promotion Mr Djokovic deserves, as all 12 of his major titles have required him to fight through tougher-than-average draws. Running the numbers also forces us to recognise just how hard Mr Wawrinka has needed to work to break the stranglehold his most fearsome peers have held at the grand slams. His three majors all rank in the top ten most difficult.
Even more than weeks atop the world rankings and Masters-level titles, difficulty-adjusted majors are unlikely to figure in the typical weekend argument about the greatest tennis player of all time. Yet for a single metric, it carries a heavy load, going to the heart of the case for Mr Nadal and cutting through much of the anecdotal carping that leads fans to discount one title or grant another extra credit. Each of the all-time greats has had their share of good and bad luck—little of it as good as Mr Nadal’s fortunes this past fortnight. As the sport’s greatest rivals continue their quest in 2018, it is important to remember that the Spaniard’s easy draw was an aberration, and that his career record in grand slams is every bit as good as Mr Federer’s.
https://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2017/09/draws-tennis?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/
———
THE RACE is on. Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, the two men who dominated men’s tennis from 2005-10, have enjoyed a startling resurgence in 2017, splitting the year’s four grand-slam titles. Mr Federer picked up his wins at the Australian Open (where he defeated Mr Nadal in a five-set final) and Wimbledon, while his long-time rival paired his tenth French Open crown with this year’s US Open title. Mr Nadal cruised to the championship in New York, dropping only one set in his last four matches and polishing it off on September 10th with a routine win over South Africa’s Kevin Anderson, 6-3 6-3 6-4.
The latest trophy represents Mr Nadal’s 16th major title, second only to Mr Federer’s 19. Even as pundits have predicted for years that one or the other is finished as an elite player—especially Mr Federer, who turned 36 last month—there is no end in sight for this two-man race. The only other active player in range—Novak Djokovic, with 12—hasn’t claimed a victory since last year’s French Open, and is sitting out the second half of this season with an elbow injury. Andy Murray, the fourth member of the “Big Four” of men’s tennis, holds only three majors, and thanks to a hip injury, he too is missing much of the 2017 season.
....
Both Mr Federer and Mr Nadal have faced some easy draws and some hard ones—that’s the nature of a sport in which every tournament begins with an empty bracket and a lottery. But the lotteries—and the career trajectories of the strongest members of tennis’s supporting cast—have tended to benefit Mr Federer. The average grand-slam title run requires beating a set of opponents that the typical champion would defeat 23% of the time. Only eight of Mr Federer’s 19 major titles have come against competition more difficult than that. But 13 of Mr Nadal’s 16 championships have required him to confront harder-than-average obstacles. Suddenly, the difference between 19 and 16 isn’t as clear-cut as it initially seemed.
In fact, when we adjust those two numbers for difficulty, the King of Clay proves to be the king of tennis—period. On average, Mr Nadal’s titles are worth 1.18 majors apiece, while Mr Federer’s work out to 0.98 each. I’ll save you the multiplication: Mr Nadal comes out on top by the narrowest of margins, 18.8 to 18.7. The adjustment gives Mr Djokovic more credit as well, upping his total from 12 to 15.3 and swapping his fourth-place position on the traditional list with Pete Sampras’s third. It’s a promotion Mr Djokovic deserves, as all 12 of his major titles have required him to fight through tougher-than-average draws. Running the numbers also forces us to recognise just how hard Mr Wawrinka has needed to work to break the stranglehold his most fearsome peers have held at the grand slams. His three majors all rank in the top ten most difficult.
Even more than weeks atop the world rankings and Masters-level titles, difficulty-adjusted majors are unlikely to figure in the typical weekend argument about the greatest tennis player of all time. Yet for a single metric, it carries a heavy load, going to the heart of the case for Mr Nadal and cutting through much of the anecdotal carping that leads fans to discount one title or grant another extra credit. Each of the all-time greats has had their share of good and bad luck—little of it as good as Mr Nadal’s fortunes this past fortnight. As the sport’s greatest rivals continue their quest in 2018, it is important to remember that the Spaniard’s easy draw was an aberration, and that his career record in grand slams is every bit as good as Mr Federer’s.
You can see for yourself , and also have the right to doubt
