Southern's 18 Sectionals...

Brilliant

New User
Soooo, with three days left before Southern, what are everyone's predictions for Semis and Finals/winner for Men's 3.5, 4.0 and 4.5???
 

CosmosMpower

Hall of Fame
to be fair he claimed the appeal off of medical for motorcycle accident if my memory is correct. Still shady, but there was a little more to it.
My 3.5 buddy broke his leg in 4 spots, had to get multiple screws and a titanium rod inserted in his leg, couldn't walk for months and they didn't grant him a medical appeal.
 

JLyon

Hall of Fame
My 3.5 buddy broke his leg in 4 spots, had to get multiple screws and a titanium rod inserted in his leg, couldn't walk for months and they didn't grant him a medical appeal.
yeah I understand, the USTA has cracked down on giving out medicals over the past few years, but there are still a privileged few who get them.
 

Creighton

Rookie
Maybe, but I doubt it. It's more likely that his league NTRP is understated due to mainly playing doubles and closely managing the scores, so as not to trigger a dq. In tournaments (which don't count in dynamic league dqs), he is free to play to his ability, winning blowout matches against opponents with 8 or higher UTRs. Combine that with the fact that one of his teammates fraudulently self rated 4.0 in 2019*, and it's much more credible that the whole team is in on the scam.

* Texas has a super champ rule, whereby juniors who have played in the super champ division must wait at least six years after their last year at super champ before rating 4.0. One of the players on that team played super champs as recently as 2016 (3 years too early) by playing a fall doubles league, where there is no sectionals, and no real incentive to check each other our for bad ratings. Then when the year end ratings came out, he got a C rating, and is ineligible for a dq according to the USTA, regardless of the blatant violation.
Just noticed today that Louisiana has a former Super Champ player from 2014 self rate as a 3.5 in 2019. I was feeling ok against that team until learning this. I assume this guy will blow us all out of the water.
 

Vox Rationis

Semi-Pro
My 3.5 buddy broke his leg in 4 spots, had to get multiple screws and a titanium rod inserted in his leg, couldn't walk for months and they didn't grant him a medical appeal.
I know a 55 and over guy who got bumped up to 5.0 and then a month later got hit by a car which broke his neck. He was out for most the year. The next year comes around and the USTA still doesn’t grant his medical appeal.
 

syshy111

New User
Soooo, with three days left before Southern, what are everyone's predictions for Semis and Finals/winner for Men's 3.5, 4.0 and 4.5???
with it taking 6 matches over 3 days to win @4.0 Mens. It is going to be the team with the most singles depth. Doesn't look like anyone really has that many guys signed up so it will come down to who can juggle their lineups the best.
 

Creighton

Rookie
with it taking 6 matches over 3 days to win @4.0 Mens. It is going to be the team with the most singles depth. Doesn't look like anyone really has that many guys signed up so it will come down to who can juggle their lineups the best.
How do you feel about your singles lines? You guys seems more doubles oriented.
 
Yeah my point was only a handful are "former division 1 power conference" out of level. Like Middle States goes and gets all the 4.0A's from like a 200 mile radius to go play on a stacked team. Or the typical strong team has a bunch of borderline 4.5s try their best not to get bumped up every year. Those are the traditional out of level players. At least they're not making a complete mockery of usta.

How is "stacking" defined?
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
How is "stacking" defined?
Same base word, two different terms.

@Vox Rationis referred to a "stacked" team, which just means they are loaded/stacked with a lot of good players.

The term "stacking" refers to a line-up where the player(s) on court 1 are not as strong as those on court 2 or 3. This is a strategy the tries to capitalize on the perception that court 1 is supposed to have the strongest players, then court 2, then court 3 (despite the USTA saying this is not required and each court is just another court) by trying to "throw" a court by putting a weak player on court 1 conceding the loss in order to have strong players on other courts against the opponents weaker players to try to get the team win.
 

schmke

Hall of Fame

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
Where is everyone finding teams and flights for the sectionals? Used to be you could find it around the USTA site or Tennislink, but I am having no luck.
 

ncgator

Rookie
Just posted a quick preview of this weekend on my blog. I note the top teams likely to make the semis/final for all levels and genders.
NC 4.5 team plays GA in first match on Friday so that should be telling and a good match. NC plays TN Sat morning so they have a tough draw. Played against them this spring and they have a solid team.
 

Creighton

Rookie
Well, I wouldn't go so far as calling it factual, but it is objective based on the data available and tends to be right more often than not. But there are usually at least some surprises, it rarely goes true to form across the board.
Yeah there is only so much the ratings can do when you have people that sandbag and come out of nowhere. So suprises are bound to happen.
 

Vox Rationis

Semi-Pro
Yeah there is only so much the ratings can do when you have people that sandbag and come out of nowhere. So suprises are bound to happen.
Yeah. Tennessee 4.0 is full of self rates. Over half their team I think. When people have such little data to go off of it can easily underrate their ratings I’d guess. Especially if they are actively trying to deflate their ratings (not saying TN is). Tennessee is one of my favorites to win based on their players history but I don’t think their rating data supports that.
 

FuzzyYellowBalls

Professional
Yeah. Tennessee 4.0 is full of self rates. Over half their team I think. When people have such little data to go off of it can easily underrate their ratings I’d guess. Especially if they are actively trying to deflate their ratings (not saying TN is). Tennessee is one of my favorites to win based on their players history but I don’t think their rating data supports that.
Yes, I don't know if TN will win, but the teams that didn't win TN had self rating 4.0s with, broken record, 80% wins in 4.5 and 5.0 this season, so maybe the other state 4.0s are equally "stacked" lol, but I doubt it? If so, I am impressed with the Southern ability to shimmy shimmy down to 4.0 to win.
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
Yeah. Tennessee 4.0 is full of self rates. Over half their team I think. When people have such little data to go off of it can easily underrate their ratings I’d guess. Especially if they are actively trying to deflate their ratings (not saying TN is). Tennessee is one of my favorites to win based on their players history but I don’t think their rating data supports that.
I can be tricky to rate players/a team that has a lot of self-rates, especially if they play against the same team 5 times in their local league like the TN team did. They had to play 4 teams at State though, so those should help make the ratings more representative.
 

Vox Rationis

Semi-Pro
Yes, I don't know if TN will win, but the teams that didn't win TN had self rating 4.0s with, broken record, 80% wins in 4.5 and 5.0 this season, so maybe the other state 4.0s are equally "stacked" lol, but I doubt it? If so, I am impressed with the Southern ability to shimmy shimmy down to 4.0 to win.
Those guys you keep mentioning. Their records don't say they played 5.0. It say 5.0 Tri-level doubles 3, which is the 4.0 line of those tri-level matches. They definitely played up and did okay at 4.5 but even then a lot of their 4.5 wins were against other 4.0s. None of them seem remotely close to 5.0.
 

Creighton

Rookie
Those guys you keep mentioning. Their records don't say they played 5.0. It say 5.0 Tri-level doubles 3, which is the 4.0 line of those tri-level matches. They definitely played up and did okay at 4.5 but even then a lot of their 4.5 wins were against other 4.0s. None of them seem remotely close to 5.0.
I think you're looking at the wrong players. There was a team that didn't win 4.0 state in TN that had two guys who each played 1 or 2 matches at the 5.0 line in tri level and won.
 

Vox Rationis

Semi-Pro
I think you're looking at the wrong players. There was a team that didn't win 4.0 state in TN that had two guys who each played 1 or 2 matches at the 5.0 line in tri level and won.
But the only guy to fit that description is the Colin guy who only played 1 match on the 5.0 line and ended up getting DQ’d after states. The other 4.0s from his team, like the Macon brothers, never played the 5.0 line. The first guy was definitely way out of level and never should have been a 4.0. But Fuzz made it seem like the whole team was full of guys with similar results to him when really he’s the only one. Like looking at the Macon brothers 4.5 results they ended up beating a lot of other 4.0s which helped their 4.5 winning %.
 

FuzzyYellowBalls

Professional
But the only guy to fit that description is the Colin guy who only played 1 match on the 5.0 line and ended up getting DQ’d after states. The other 4.0s from his team, like the Macon brothers, never played the 5.0 line. The first guy was definitely way out of level and never should have been a 4.0. But Fuzz made it seem like the whole team was full of guys with similar results to him when really he’s the only one. Like looking at the Macon brothers 4.5 results they ended up beating a lot of other 4.0s which helped their 4.5 winning %.
It wasn't those guys you mentioned, I also spent about 5 minutes tops on tennis ratings looking at a handful on one team, I think the guys are overall nice so I'm not interested in mentioning names, just doesn't feel important. I didn't play or know the Macon brothers etc. If you've ever seen my posts on ratings I am not generous usually, these guys wouldn't raise an eyebrow playing average 5.0 or high level 4.5. Someone please post the results here of the southern tourney, should be interesting.
 

Vox Rationis

Semi-Pro
It wasn't those guys you mentioned, I also spent about 5 minutes tops on tennis ratings looking at a handful on one team, I think the guys are overall nice so I'm not interested in mentioning names, just doesn't feel important. I didn't play or know the Macon brothers etc. If you've ever seen my posts on ratings I am not generous usually, these guys wouldn't raise an eyebrow playing average 5.0 or high level 4.5. Someone please post the results here of the southern tourney, should be interesting.
Ah okay I was looking at the wrong team then. So they weren’t even on the top two teams at districts?
 

jmnk

Hall of Fame
It wasn't those guys you mentioned, I also spent about 5 minutes tops on tennis ratings looking at a handful on one team, I think the guys are overall nice so I'm not interested in mentioning names, just doesn't feel important. I didn't play or know the Macon brothers etc. If you've ever seen my posts on ratings I am not generous usually, these guys wouldn't raise an eyebrow playing average 5.0 or high level 4.5. Someone please post the results here of the southern tourney, should be interesting.
But isn't naming at least a team makes it worse? I mean if you do imply that there are players clearly sandbagging but never provide names/teams that makes people (like @Vox Rationis or yours truly) try to look it up somehow, and perhaps get the wrong names. After all USTA records are in public domain, is it really out of place to name a name of a clear sandbagger? I mean obviously if one is 100% certain that is the case.....
 

FuzzyYellowBalls

Professional
But isn't naming at least a team makes it worse? I mean if you do imply that there are players clearly sandbagging but never provide names/teams that makes people (like @Vox Rationis or yours truly) try to look it up somehow, and perhaps get the wrong names. After all USTA records are in public domain, is it really out of place to name a name of a clear sandbagger? I mean obviously if one is 100% certain that is the case.....
I'm lazy, maybe you are right, but naming a team or a person requires navigating that clunky usta website.
 

jmnk

Hall of Fame
I'm lazy, maybe you are right, but naming a team or a person requires navigating that clunky usta website.
So you mention that there are such and such sandbagging players, and you claim their results in _multiple leagues_, and what their records are - which you must have I presume got from that clunky USTA site - but you are too lazy to name/remember the team/name? ok, cool....
 

FuzzyYellowBalls

Professional
So you mention that there are such and such sandbagging players, and you claim their results in _multiple leagues_, and what their records are - which you must have I presume got from that clunky USTA site - but you are too lazy to name/remember the team/name? ok, cool....
I mentioned tennisrecord.com more than once, isn't that cool, or maybe you........failed.......to.......read.....love you kiss kiss :)
 

Vox Rationis

Semi-Pro
So you mention that there are such and such sandbagging players, and you claim their results in _multiple leagues_, and what their records are - which you must have I presume got from that clunky USTA site - but you are too lazy to name/remember the team/name? ok, cool....
Nah I get it. He doesn’t want to lead to the slander of random guys who none of us actually know. That’s perfectly respectable. I’m just a curious individual who’s good at looking stuff up.
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
Close first matches for the 4.0 men. All 3-2 scores.

3-2 win for GA over NC and two of the wins were match tie-breaks.

LA also beat MS 3-2, also two match tie-break wins.

TN got AL 3-2, both of AL's courts were in match tie-breaks and one for TN.

SC beat KY 3-2, two of SC's wins in match tie-breaks and one for KY.
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
And, BTW, since they finally put schedules on TennisLink, I could do my simulation.

Before the event, the teams most likely to advance to semis were GA, KY, TN, MS. This is different from what I wrote on my blog as this factors in schedule, not just team strength. SC has a tougher schedule than TN so they slip out.

Now, after one match they are GA, KY, SC, TN. The loss by MS has put them behind the curve allowing SC back in.
 
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