Spin and Speed - Forehands of the current ATP

[Rovesciarete]

Just found a neat graphic of Tennis Insights which places most of the top players of 2023 in relation to the tour. Keep in mind the sample bias, more so for guys blasting away with little margin. The relative positions of the elite is usually much better supported. If they read the data at the net player positioning can also play a big role.

You can clearly have big success on a normal hardcourt if you have a flat and not too fast forehand if you take time away and are aggressive like De Minaur or hit very deep like Medvedev. Having a huger serve helps like Hurkacz shows.

Heavy topspin facilitates clay court success if you look at who does well there. Interesting to see Zverev with those rpm, maybe sample size. Fritz does well on high bouncing stuff due to height, time and power.

 

[Rovesciarete]

A snapshot of high-bouncing IW 2023, from AngloAlbanian999. Once comparisons between players going deep are more valid, especially the elite 4 minus Djokovic. Fritz, Tiafoe, FAA, Fokina and Norrie were the other quarterfinalists.

 

[3loudboys]

The top right hand quadrant is where you’d want to be. Usual suspects right up there.

 

[Tshooter]

De Manure

 

[Rovesciarete]

@Vestigue du jour makes it great coloured graphs. Ruud always stands out with his huge topspin from both wings both has ‘normal’ pace. Alcaraz spins even more with his forehand while he has a relative normal one from his back.

Sinner combines a high amount of topspin and speed from both wings. Medvedev flat and hard while able to attack more with his forehand.

 

[Holmes]

We need these comparisons to be less detailed on the amount of lines and dots and colors presented to legitimize the graph, and more detailed on the shot type (forehand return, forehand cross court, forehand putaway etc.) and sample size to get a better sense of what's going on.

 

[TennisBro]

We need these comparisons to be less detailed on the amount of lines and dots and colors presented to legitimize the graph, and more detailed on the shot type (forehand return, forehand cross court, forehand putaway etc.) and sample size to get a better sense of what's going on.

I think there are a lot of details necessary for not only the speed and ball RPM but hitting points of individual players matters so much; some players pick up their returns off the bounce quick and some later at the higher levels too.

 

[SonnyT]

It'll be nice to see the possible deterioration of Djokovic's FH over the span of a few years.

 

[Kralingen]

We need these comparisons to be less detailed on the amount of lines and dots and colors presented to legitimize the graph, and more detailed on the shot type (forehand return, forehand cross court, forehand putaway etc.) and sample size to get a better sense of what's going on.

Exactly. It’s almost meaningless to look at “on average” spin and speed when tennis as a game is not at all about average repetitive shots, it’s about variation.

 

[ChaelAZ]

Just found a neat graphic of Tennis Insights which places most of the top players of 2023 in relation to the tour. Keep in mind the sample bias, more so for guys blasting away with little margin. The relative positions of the elite is usually much better supported. If they read the data at the net player positioning can also play a big role.

You can clearly have big success on a normal hardcourt if you have a flat and not too fast forehand if you take time away and are aggressive like De Minaur or hit very deep like Medvedev. Having a huger serve helps like Hurkacz shows.

Heavy topspin facilitates clay court success if you look at who does well there. Interesting to see Zverev with those rpm, maybe sample size. Fritz does well on high bouncing stuff due to height, time and power.

If De Minaur could develop a weapon...

 

[socallefty]

When you watch matches from courtside, you often see that the player varying his spin/trajectory causes much more trouble to his opponent than the one who hits the same shot over and over again especially on faster courts. On high bouncing clay, it might be different where having more spin/action on the ball repetitively gains an advantage because of the much higher bounce and slowness of the surface. Guys like Zverev, Medvedev, Sinner, Ruud, Nadal etc. are more likely to hit the same shot over and over in a rally while guys like Djokovic, Alcaraz, Federer vary the trajectory and level of spin much more in rallies as they will flatten out many shots to inject pace especially when they change angles or hit on the rise which they do more often. So, it always makes me question how important the average spin stat is unless you measure it at a clay tournament. Higher average speed is always good unless it is by a player notorious for making a lot of unforced errors which is rare with the elite players.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Exactly. It’s almost meaningless to look at “on average” spin and speed when tennis as a game is not at all about average repetitive shots, it’s about variation.

More good data would always help. However those graphs are very valuable as they offer deep insight, especially combined with a tennis eye. All four a remarkable consistent in marking the area of gravity in which the player‘s stroke mostly move.

Some people seem to miss the forrest for the trees. Players vary their strokes but the they tend toward a certain range. Ruud will flatten out his stroke but will mostly use very high topspin. Sinner throws heavy loopy forehands in and hammers some home but gravitates towards an early, fast & heavy deep ball.

Alcaraz is very versatile but his forehand features from neutral some of the heaviest spin while his backhand cross-court is rather flat. No wonder that he loves to go inside-out, as it allows him to get those angles thanks to his great fh topspin.

So just because a fairly simple chart doesn’t include all imagined fancy it can still be very useful. As a matter of fact a simple model is often superior and easier to use as long as hand it with care and intelligence…

 

[Holmes]

Exactly. It’s almost meaningless to look at “on average” spin and speed when tennis as a game is not at all about average repetitive shots, it’s about variation.

Well said. Stats is a field of study for a reason - lots of data is required to represent a situation accurately. Almost the first lesson teaches you that averages are extremely misleading (on average of course)

 

[Rovesciarete]

Well said. Stats is a field of study for a reason - lots of data is required to represent a situation accurately. Almost the first lesson teaches you that averages are extremely misleading (on average of course)

Well averages can be very revealing as well, it depends on the particular data set. Forrest and trees. Of course if somebody doesn’t want to see something he won’t.

Will quote @Vestige du jour:

Of course the average topspin rates are mixture of different shots of flat or heavy topspin but actually it does not vary much as (young player in particular) player tends to keep his own style albeit opponent's style in general.

Ironically Sinner varies his bh topspin more according to his opponent. Alcaraz plays mostly the same, flatter stroke while mixing in more slices. So Sinner gets more variety out of his two-headed backhand while Alcaraz does so by adding other strokes.

 

[tudwell]

I’m surprised Hurkacz’s forehand is so flat. On screen at least it looks like a rather loopy shot (especially comparing to Paul, de Minaur, and Medvedev, the other flat forehanders).

 

[Klatu Verata Necktie]

If De Minaur could develop a weapon...

Interesting. I'd say that De Minaur's weapon is his speed, which is possible in part due to his smaller stature. If he were bigger and stronger, he could possibly have more intimidating and explosive weapons, but he'd likely give up that speed and agility advantage that he has over most opponents.

 

[GloW]

Just found a neat graphic of Tennis Insights which places most of the top players of 2023 in relation to the tour. Keep in mind the sample bias, more so for guys blasting away with little margin. The relative positions of the elite is usually much better supported. If they read the data at the net player positioning can also play a big role.

You can clearly have big success on a normal hardcourt if you have a flat and not too fast forehand if you take time away and are aggressive like De Minaur or hit very deep like Medvedev. Having a huger serve helps like Hurkacz shows.

Heavy topspin facilitates clay court success if you look at who does well there. Interesting to see Zverev with those rpm, maybe sample size. Fritz does well on high bouncing stuff due to height, time and power.

who is the player all the way on the right because that is some seious speed!

 

[ghostofMecir]

Just found a neat graphic of Tennis Insights which places most of the top players of 2023 in relation to the tour. Keep in mind the sample bias, more so for guys blasting away with little margin. The relative positions of the elite is usually much better supported. If they read the data at the net player positioning can also play a big role.

You can clearly have big success on a normal hardcourt if you have a flat and not too fast forehand if you take time away and are aggressive like De Minaur or hit very deep like Medvedev. Having a huger serve helps like Hurkacz shows.

Heavy topspin facilitates clay court success if you look at who does well there. Interesting to see Zverev with those rpm, maybe sample size. Fritz does well on high bouncing stuff due to height, time and power.

Thank you for this. Who is the black dot at 83 mph? Is that Rinderknech? Also, who is the black dot in the upper right (80.5 mph and 3300 rpm?)

 

[Angrybirdstar]

who is the player all the way on the right because that is some seious speed!

Thank you for this. Who is the black dot at 83 mph? Is that Rinderknech? Also, who is the black dot in the upper right (80.5 mph and 3300 rpm?)

Eubanks and Fils

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738105659365671350

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

Does Alcaraz (or any player in general) forehand stats completely exclude his drops from the baseline? His topspin lobs?

 

[socallefty]

Saw Fils in person twice at IW. Has a great FH, serve and movement amongst the very best on tour - should become an elite player. BH and returns are not at the same caliber and will have to see how much he improves that. Also gets emotional in tight situations and close sets - probably needs a good coach to calm him down.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Does Alcaraz forehand stats completely exclude his drops from the baseline? His topspin lobs?

Norrie has one of lowest topspin readings despite using almost never the slice, Musetti and Tsitsipas have one of the highest while slicing more than every fourth backhand. So slices don’t pull the stats down.

Lobs might be included but it’s unlikely as the official data sorts and Insights sorts the strokes and even values them in the latter case. Overall Tennis Insights is actually doing a great job at getting closer to what may be.

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

Norrie has one of lowest topspin readings despite using almost never the slice, Musetti and Tsitsipas have one of the highest while slicing more than every fourth backhand. So slices don’t pull the stats down.

Slice shots from baseline are very easily distinguishable from drives/topspin so hopefully these shots are not factored into the topspin calculation at all.

 

[NaDjoFed]

great info.

 

[Baseline_Bungle]

The top right hand quadrant is where you’d want to be. Usual suspects right up there.

And then there's the DeMinaur quadrant...

Just found a neat graphic of Tennis Insights which places most of the top players of 2023 in relation to the tour. Keep in mind the sample bias, more so for guys blasting away with little margin. The relative positions of the elite is usually much better supported. If they read the data at the net player positioning can also play a big role.

You can clearly have big success on a normal hardcourt if you have a flat and not too fast forehand if you take time away and are aggressive like De Minaur or hit very deep like Medvedev. Having a huger serve helps like Hurkacz shows.

Heavy topspin facilitates clay court success if you look at who does well there. Interesting to see Zverev with those rpm, maybe sample size. Fritz does well on high bouncing stuff due to height, time and power.

Who are the nameless blue dots??? I wanna know who the guy who hits super slow is... (Mannarino?) or the one who hits super flat... (Mannarino?) and the beast way at the top right who hits with more spin than Ruud and more pace than both Sinner or Alcaraz...

 

[Kralingen]

Eubanks and Fils

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738105659365671350

This just proves further to me how useless this statistic is. The guys who crush the ball off the FH wing in pace and spin?

Felix Auger Aliassime (mug)
Kokkinakis (bum)
Borna Gojo (college player)
Fils (outside the top 20)
Berrettini (shell of himself)
Lehecka (juiced to the gills)

Basilashvili used to lead these stats by a large margin and what’d he ever achieve?

None are even close to threatening the top players on tour in fact none are even top 20 level.

 

[Rosstour]

And people say Grigor is a weaponless pusher? lol

 

[Rovesciarete]

This just proves further to me how useless this statistic is. The guys who crush the ball off the FH wing in pace and spin?

Felix Auger Aliassime (mug)
Kokkinakis (bum)
Borna Gojo (college player)
Fils (outside the top 20)
Berrettini (shell of himself)
Lehecka (juiced to the gills)

Alone it reveals quite a bit, but as often true insights is often achieved by a different models and viewpoints. In this case you need to combine it with the wealth of mapped point outcomes of Tennisabstract, maybe Tennis insights shot quality and - very importantly - the eye test.

FAA, Berrettini and Jarry are tall go big or broke players which try to win the point quickly by a heavy forehands. Jarry tries to get a high contact point and flatten it, while the other two play with more spin.

Elite defenders like Alcaraz or Sinner can hit forehands as or at least almost as heavy but they do so in prolonged rallies and often from the baseline which drives their numbers down. Nadal could uncoil his formerly unmatched left topspin partly due to positioning and the flat incoming bh drive.

 

[Deleted member 807105]

Would be funny to see Paires forehand added to this

 

[tudwell]

This just proves further to me how useless this statistic is. The guys who crush the ball off the FH wing in pace and spin?

Felix Auger Aliassime (mug)
Kokkinakis (bum)
Borna Gojo (college player)
Fils (outside the top 20)
Berrettini (shell of himself)
Lehecka (juiced to the gills)

Basilashvili used to lead these stats by a large margin and what’d he ever achieve?

None are even close to threatening the top players on tour in fact none are even top 20 level.

On the other hand, look at how many of the top 20 are in that upper-right quadrant. And only three of the top 20 are below the tour average on both pace and spin. Clearly, hitting with more pace and spin is, all things being equal, better than hitting with less pace and spin. But hitting forehands with a lot of pace and spin is not in and of itself enough to sustain an elite-level tennis career. Maybe that's a fairly obvious "insight", but it does seem like one rubric (among many others) for, say, measuring the potential of young up-and-comers. You're always gonna get some exceptions like Medvedev who don't stand out at all in terms of pace and spin (though he manages to make up for that elsewhere, such as in depth and consistency), but as a general rule of thumb, if a player is falling out of that top right quadrant, it's probably reasonable to worry about their prospects for being a truly elite player.

 

[Rovesciarete]

The 1997 topspin study has a broke link but that old TTW post has some of that data. @Moose Malloy wrote:

"Of the players studied, American Mary Jo Fernandez, with her minimalistic, classic strokes, hit the "flatest" forehand. But her ball was still spinning on average in excess of 1000rpm! (To be precise, her average was 1068rpm on 12 forehands.) At the other end of the spectrum was the Spanish player Sergi Bruguera, who generated topspin at an incredible rate that averaged over 3300rpm, more than 3 times as much spin of Mary Jo. Bruguera's average on 8 forehands was actually 3331rpms, and included the single fastest spinning forehand we recorded, an amazing 3751rpms in a match against Marcelo Rios.

In men's pro tennis it normally takes about 1 and 1/3 seconds for the ball to travel from one playerUs racket to the other in a baseline exchange. In the case of Sergi Bruguera's forehand, this means the ball is turning over itself 70 to 80 times as it travels to his opponent!

Men players with the more extreme western grips all hit with substantially more average topspin, with the averages starting well above 2000rpm. This range began at the low end with Michael Chang at 2334rpm, with Marcelo Rios at 2647rpm, and Tomas Muster at 2882rpm. Sergi Bruguera, who observers agree has the most extreme western motion in tennis, was at a level by himself, the only player averaging well in excess of 3000rpm."

Lots of dirtballer and they hit much loopier forehands. Thanks to *progress Sinner and Alcaraz are hitting heavier spin with a lot more pace.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Look at the 1997 US Open match possibly mentioned in that study:

 

[socallefty]

This just proves further to me how useless this statistic is. The guys who crush the ball off the FH wing in pace and spin?

Felix Auger Aliassime (mug)
Kokkinakis (bum)
Borna Gojo (college player)
Fils (outside the top 20)
Berrettini (shell of himself)
Lehecka (juiced to the gills)

Basilashvili used to lead these stats by a large margin and what’d he ever achieve?

None are even close to threatening the top players on tour in fact none are even top 20 level.

It seems like everyone at the top has a great serve and FH these days along with a BH that is mostly not a weakness that they can also hit winners with. Some might have a better weapon than others, but most are adequate in all these parameters. The true differentiators seem to be movement and return quality to make it to the very top. The fastest players are amongst the best players and I think it is needed nowadays to have the best shot tolerance as the hitting is so big.

Also serves are so big that unless you are one of the best returners on tour, you don’t break much. The top 4 players in the world are amongst the top 6 in ATP return stats in the last year.

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.

www.atptour.com

 

[Rovesciarete]

Who are the nameless blue dots??? I wanna know who the guy who hits super slow is... (Mannarino?) or the one who hits super flat... (Mannarino?) and the beast way at the top right who hits with more spin than Ruud and more pace than both Sinner or Alcaraz...

Mannarino is very likely the lowest blue top close to the y-axis. The other must be Fils, which surprised me honestly. However we have sample size and surface bias plus diverging opponent quality. Still this will make me take another look at Arthur.

Safiullin and Lehecka can certainly trouble top players and rush them as we have seen.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Digged deeper and found an older Tennis Insight graph which looks a bit strange. All seems about 400-500 rpm off and it seems slower as well. Did they not clean up the data? Different method, other measurement spot?

 

[Rovesciarete]

One dimension which is often missing from the discussion is depth. Tennis Insights includes it into their shot quality assessment but here we have also one of their guessing graphs:

 

[Subway Tennis]

Very interesting and somewhat surprising original graphic. Didn’t expect to see Dimitrov where he is for the whole of 2023, although in 2024 so far he has definitely been pummeling the ball. I’m also surprised at where Hurkacz has plotted!

 

[messiahrobins]

Very interesting and somewhat surprising original graphic. Didn’t expect to see Dimitrov where he is for the whole of 2023, although in 2024 so far he has definitely been pummeling the ball. I’m also surprised at where Hurkacz has plotted!

This is where the game has changed past couple of years, players are pummeling their FH's more than the past. Dimitrov clearly has upped the speed from what he used to do as has Djokovic.
Alcaraz oth seems to be reverting to a more spin oriented FH, so i wonder how many more wimbledons he wins.

 

[Rovesciarete]

This is where the game has changed past couple of years, players are pummeling their FH's more than the past. Dimitrov clearly has upped the speed from what he used to do as has Djokovic.
Alcaraz oth seems to be reverting to a more spin oriented FH, so i wonder how many more wimbledons he wins.

This is a key point, mentioned not only by Dimitrov but also by Murray. Overall the ATP100 serve better and hit harder. Alcaraz can flatten his forehand out, which is easier to do than the other way around, .

Like De Minaur Hurkacz tries to take time and space away which doesn’t work well on clay.

 

[Robert F]

Graphs have been really good to demonstrate what a good player needs to be "good enough" to be elite.
At this point in the game having a FH that averages over 80mph takes on too much liability. 75-78 seems the be the sweet spot of giving enough sting but not taking on too much risk.

Looking at the graph spin seems to have a wider window as to what is acceptable. And that might come as a tradeoff that some guys will flatten the ball for pace and have less spin others might crank up the spin to swing full out.

So can there be a player who evolves technique or strength to be as consistent at 80mph plus? Or are we near the limits of technique and human capacity?

 

[socallefty]

Digged deeper and found an older Tennis Insight graph which looks a bit strange. All seems about 400-500 rpm off and it seems slower as well. Did they not clean up the data? Different method, other measurement spot?

This graph is from the AO2023 where players were complaining about the balls being very slow due to fluffing up too much. So, it was difficult to hit harder likely. There were a lot of breaks when the balls were in games 7-9 just before being changed compared to normal. While watching that tournament, I was counting the number of games before each ball change even more than I do usually because it correlated so much with when breaks happened.

 

[ChaelAZ]

Interesting. I'd say that De Minaur's weapon is his speed, which is possible in part due to his smaller stature. If he were bigger and stronger, he could possibly have more intimidating and explosive weapons, but he'd likely give up that speed and agility advantage that he has over most opponents.

Definitely some kind of trade-off, but I think he could apply more speed and spin without really effecting movement. Even adding 5mph and more spin could help, or maybe taking the ball early more often. His speed and movement is second to none and has got him where he is.

 

[Rovesciarete]

This graph is from the AO2023 where players were complaining about the balls being very slow due to fluffing up too much. So, it was difficult to hit harder likely. There were a lot of breaks when the balls were in games 7-9 just before being changed compared to normal. …

Excellent points.

Graphs have been really good to demonstrate what a good player needs to be "good enough" to be elite.
At this point in the game having a FH that averages over 80mph takes on too much liability. 75-78 seems the be the sweet spot of giving enough sting but not taking on too much risk.

Looking at the graph spin seems to have a wider window as to what is acceptable. And that might come as a tradeoff that some guys will flatten the ball for pace and have less spin others might crank up the spin to swing full out.

Agreed. Great modern players without heavy forehands are rare and need to play a particular, smart kind of game or have other strengths. De Minaur, Hurkacz and Medvedev are all offer different answers.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Mr. upper right corner Arthur‘s forehand fils pretty strong on MC clay…

 

[Rovesciarete]

Interesting update from the after the US Open win by Jannik Sinner:

Jannik Sinner in 2024:

Forehand Speed = 78 mph (Tour Avg. = 73 mph)
Backhand Speed = 73 mph (Tour Avg. = 66 mph)
Forehand Spin = 3,049 rpm (Tour Avg. = 2,708 rpm)
Backhand Spin = 2,235 rpm (Tour Avg. = 1,977 rpm)

 

[jayvee]

Interesting update from the after the US Open win by Jannik Sinner:

Jannik Sinner in 2024:

Forehand Speed = 78 mph (Tour Avg. = 73 mph)
Backhand Speed = 73 mph (Tour Avg. = 66 mph)
Forehand Spin = 3,049 rpm (Tour Avg. = 2,708 rpm)
Backhand Spin = 2,235 rpm (Tour Avg. = 1,977 rpm)

Not really surprising...

 

[Spin Diesel]

Graphs have been really good to demonstrate what a good player needs to be "good enough" to be elite.
At this point in the game having a FH that averages over 80mph takes on too much liability. 75-78 seems the be the sweet spot of giving enough sting but not taking on too much risk.

Looking at the graph spin seems to have a wider window as to what is acceptable. And that might come as a tradeoff that some guys will flatten the ball for pace and have less spin others might crank up the spin to swing full out.

So can there be a player who evolves technique or strength to be as consistent at 80mph plus? Or are we near the limits of technique and human capacity?

Didn‘t Thiem‘s FH average about 82mph? I think I read it somewhere a while ago.
Edit: Couldn‘t find any verification, so I probably remembered it wrongly.

 

[messiahrobins]

God...i need better reading glasses..i just paid £13 for a pair from M&S as well.
Great thread thisi can use it to try and get my money back ...

 

[Robert F]

Didn‘t Thiem‘s FH average about 82mph? I think I read it somewhere a while ago.
Edit: Couldn‘t find any verification, so I probably remembered it wrongly.

I think in his heydey his was able to amp it up and that doesn't seem far off for a set or match where he was attacking like crazy.
Unfortunately, with his attempted comebacks I don't think he ever reached that level again.

 

[jl809]

Look at AdM hahahahaa