I am curious about the indoor versus outdoor distinction, which is often referenced to explain seemingly unusual observations e.g. "Jones didn't do well because it was indoors, he doesn't like indoors/the indoor courts are quick and low bouncing etc."
The ideal I start with is that its should make negligible difference as long as the court plays the same
Which means hard courts. Shouldn't make much difference
So I looked into the records for a selected few greats. The source for all figures is the ATP site - which I know isn't too great for accuracy
They have win/loss records for "hard", "indoor" and "carpet".
Assuming "indoor" = "carpet" + "indoor hard" (i.e. there are no indoor grass or clay), "indoor" - "carpet" = Indoor Hard record and "Hard" - Indoor Hard = Outdoor Hard record
The findings -
Player...... Hard Court (All)..... Indoor Hard ....... Outdoor Hard ...... Difference & Direction
Connors.... 547-114 @ 82.8%..... 131-30 @ 81.4%..... 416-84 @ 83.2%..... 1.8% Outdoor
Borg........ 121-38 @ 76.1%...... 40-15 @ 72.7%...... 81-23 @ 77.9%..... 5.2% Outdoor
McEnroe... 299-73 @ 80.4%...... 82-14 @ 85.4%...... 217-59 @ 78.6%..... 6.8% Indoor
Lendl...... 395-86 @ 82.1%...... 76-17 @ 81.7%...... 319-69 @ 82.2%..... 0.5% Outdoor
Wilander... 193-77 @ 71.5%..... 44-20 @ 68.8%...... 149-57 @ 72.3%..... 3.5% Outdoor
Edberg...... 400-110 @ 78.4%.... 93-35 @ 72.7%...... 307-75 @ 80.4%..... 7.7% Outdoor
Becker...... 254-72 @ 77.9%..... 74-19 @ 80.0%..... 180-53 @ 77.3%.... 2.7% Indoor
Agassi...... 612-163 @ 79.0%..... 112-37 @ 75.1%.... 500-126 @ 79.9%... 4.8% Outdoor
Sampras.... 451-111 @ 80.2%..... 93-24 @ 79.5%.... 358-87 @ 80.4%... 0.9% Outdoor
Federer.... 708-143 @ 83.2%..... 226-50 @ 81.9%.... 482-93 @ 83.8%... 1.9% Outdoor
Nadal..... 421-126 @ 77.0%.... 75-30 @ 71.4%.... 346-96 @ 78.3%... 6.9% Outdoor
Djokovic.... 508-95 @ 84.2%..... 125-33 @ 79.1%.... 383-62 @ 86.1%... 7.0% Outdoor
Murray...... 431-116 @ 78.9%.... 127-34 @ 78.9%.... 307-82 @ 78.9%.... Equal
---
Points of interest -
- Given Zero Sum Game, it appears the Greats tend to prosper more outdoor than indoor. Only John McEnroe and Boris Becker are Indoor > Outdoor... everybody else is Outdoor > Indoor. (Andy Murray is uniquely perfectly even)
- Taking a difference of 4% to be significant....6 players show significant differences - Borg, McEnroe, Edberg, Agassi, Nadal and Djokovic
- Curiously, two of the biggest differences are for two of the more similar players - McEnroe (6.8% Indoors) and Edberg (7.7% Outdoor)
- McEnroe, far and away the leader on indoor hard courts
- Connors and Lendl fairly comfortably leading the retired pack outdoor though behind the still active Djokovic (far and away in front), and in the same ball park as Federer
- The two narrowest differences are Ivan Lendl (0.5%), which I would have expected, and Pete Sampras (0.9%)
- The Connors-Borg-McEnroe 'cluster'... Connors outstripping both outdoor (particularly impressive, given how long he played), Borg right up there with Mac outdoor (indoors is what puts Mac well beyond) and Borg's relatively weak indoor record (particularly noteworthy given his outstanding record on carpet... figures for which I'll post up as well)
- Edberg's outstanding outdoor figure... right there with Sampras and above McEnroe and Agassi - surprised me
Anything else strike you?
(I'll post up tables for comparison with carpet and indoor hard soon)
The ideal I start with is that its should make negligible difference as long as the court plays the same
Which means hard courts. Shouldn't make much difference
So I looked into the records for a selected few greats. The source for all figures is the ATP site - which I know isn't too great for accuracy
They have win/loss records for "hard", "indoor" and "carpet".
Assuming "indoor" = "carpet" + "indoor hard" (i.e. there are no indoor grass or clay), "indoor" - "carpet" = Indoor Hard record and "Hard" - Indoor Hard = Outdoor Hard record
The findings -
Player...... Hard Court (All)..... Indoor Hard ....... Outdoor Hard ...... Difference & Direction
Connors.... 547-114 @ 82.8%..... 131-30 @ 81.4%..... 416-84 @ 83.2%..... 1.8% Outdoor
Borg........ 121-38 @ 76.1%...... 40-15 @ 72.7%...... 81-23 @ 77.9%..... 5.2% Outdoor
McEnroe... 299-73 @ 80.4%...... 82-14 @ 85.4%...... 217-59 @ 78.6%..... 6.8% Indoor
Lendl...... 395-86 @ 82.1%...... 76-17 @ 81.7%...... 319-69 @ 82.2%..... 0.5% Outdoor
Wilander... 193-77 @ 71.5%..... 44-20 @ 68.8%...... 149-57 @ 72.3%..... 3.5% Outdoor
Edberg...... 400-110 @ 78.4%.... 93-35 @ 72.7%...... 307-75 @ 80.4%..... 7.7% Outdoor
Becker...... 254-72 @ 77.9%..... 74-19 @ 80.0%..... 180-53 @ 77.3%.... 2.7% Indoor
Agassi...... 612-163 @ 79.0%..... 112-37 @ 75.1%.... 500-126 @ 79.9%... 4.8% Outdoor
Sampras.... 451-111 @ 80.2%..... 93-24 @ 79.5%.... 358-87 @ 80.4%... 0.9% Outdoor
Federer.... 708-143 @ 83.2%..... 226-50 @ 81.9%.... 482-93 @ 83.8%... 1.9% Outdoor
Nadal..... 421-126 @ 77.0%.... 75-30 @ 71.4%.... 346-96 @ 78.3%... 6.9% Outdoor
Djokovic.... 508-95 @ 84.2%..... 125-33 @ 79.1%.... 383-62 @ 86.1%... 7.0% Outdoor
Murray...... 431-116 @ 78.9%.... 127-34 @ 78.9%.... 307-82 @ 78.9%.... Equal
---
Points of interest -
- Given Zero Sum Game, it appears the Greats tend to prosper more outdoor than indoor. Only John McEnroe and Boris Becker are Indoor > Outdoor... everybody else is Outdoor > Indoor. (Andy Murray is uniquely perfectly even)
- Taking a difference of 4% to be significant....6 players show significant differences - Borg, McEnroe, Edberg, Agassi, Nadal and Djokovic
- Curiously, two of the biggest differences are for two of the more similar players - McEnroe (6.8% Indoors) and Edberg (7.7% Outdoor)
- McEnroe, far and away the leader on indoor hard courts
- Connors and Lendl fairly comfortably leading the retired pack outdoor though behind the still active Djokovic (far and away in front), and in the same ball park as Federer
- The two narrowest differences are Ivan Lendl (0.5%), which I would have expected, and Pete Sampras (0.9%)
- The Connors-Borg-McEnroe 'cluster'... Connors outstripping both outdoor (particularly impressive, given how long he played), Borg right up there with Mac outdoor (indoors is what puts Mac well beyond) and Borg's relatively weak indoor record (particularly noteworthy given his outstanding record on carpet... figures for which I'll post up as well)
- Edberg's outstanding outdoor figure... right there with Sampras and above McEnroe and Agassi - surprised me
Anything else strike you?
(I'll post up tables for comparison with carpet and indoor hard soon)