Stan Wawrinka to win Australian open?

LOL. I'll just take the first year. 4 players IN THEIR PRIMES from FEDERER'S GENERATION - Hewitt, Roddick, Safin, Nalbandian. A bunch of other excellent players who played well - Moya, Agassi, Coria (on clay), Henman, Gaudio played a great FO.
They were indeed excellent players but not exactly on the same level as Fedal t_p. Fedal against whom Djokovic had a 10-1 record in 2011. :)
 
I never denied that but the competition was a lot tougher so he achieved a lot less. 2015 was like stealing candy from a 3-year old.
In 2011 he owned the Tour and had just slightly inferior results in the end compared to 2015.
A 30-year old Federer is definitely not in his prime. Apart from Doha he had to wait at the very end of the season to finally win a title when both Djokovic and Nadal fell off the radar.

Nadal was still in his prime but not at his peak. 2011 Nadal did as well in big tournaments as he did in 2014 lol.
Federer was in his prime. Age does not determine the prime. Performances do. He was good but did not win so much because Djokodal stopped him throughout the most of the season. 2012 performances just confirm that 2011 was also his prime.
Nadal was at his peak, as he dominated everyone else and reached even more finals than in 2010. But he got hammered 6 times.
For a 34-year old. The level he produced wasn't 1/3 as good as when he was in his prime. Prime Federer would never allow Djokovic to dominate the tour, lol not even close and peak Federer would dominate him himself.
LOL!
 
In 2011 he owned the Tour and had just slightly inferior results in the end compared to 2015.

Federer was in his prime. Age does not determine the prime. Performances do. He was good but did not win so much because Djokodal stopped him throughout the most of the season. 2012 performances just confirm that 2011 was also his prime.
Nadal was at his peak, as he dominated everyone else and reached even more finals than in 2010. But he got hammered 6 times.

LOL!
Pretty much this.....
 
They were indeed excellent players but not exactly on the same level as Fedal t_p. Fedal against whom Djokovic had a 10-1 record in 2011. :)
If Federer was in his mid 20's in 2011 like Nadal you would've had a point. But there were just way too many good players in 2004 for prime Nadal alone to make it a tougher opposition for Djokovic in 2011. Back in 2004 Federer beat one and another was waiting in the next round. Just look at his 2004 AO draw.
 
LOL. I'll just take the first year. 4 players IN THEIR PRIMES from FEDERER'S GENERATION - Hewitt, Roddick, Safin, Nalbandian. A bunch of other excellent players who played well - Moya, Agassi, Coria (on clay), Henman, Gaudio played a great FO.

Lol.

Funny how you even bring guys like henman in the convo.

You are trying to argue feds 2004 was better than noles 2011? Really? Can you name professioNAL analysts who support that?

Nobody needs you to agree but most players and commentators have already said 2011 was the most impressive year in terms of beating strong competition.

6~0 against in prime nadal is way more impressive than wins against any player in your list.
 
If Federer was in his mid 20's in 2011 like Nadal you would've had a point. But there were just way too many good players in 2004 for prime Nadal alone to make it a tougher opposition for Djokovic in 2011. Back in 2004 Federer beat one and another was waiting in the next round. Just look at his 2004 AO draw.
I refer you to Doctor's last post. Just because Federer was in his late twenties doesn't mean he wasn't still capable of playing prime level tennis. The guy's just a freak of nature, I mean he's five years older now and still capable of defeating the world's best player!
 
In 2011 he owned the Tour and had just slightly inferior results in the end compared to 2015.

I never said that he didn't. 2011 was a legit great year. 2015 - NEVER. Just because he already proved in 2011 that he could dominate a strong field doesn't mean that he should get a free pass in 2015 and beyond.

Federer was in his prime. Age does not determine the prime. Performances do.

So you're saying that 2014-2015 Federer is still in his prime? I mean he's still reaching Slam finals for fun at the age of 33-34.

He was good but did not win so much because Djokodal stopped him throughout the most of the season. 2012 performances just confirm that 2011 was also his prime.
Nadal was at his peak, as he dominated everyone else and reached even more finals than in 2010. But he got hammered 6 times.

Federer played a lot better in 2012 than he did in 2011. In 2011 he delivered the goods at the FO and USO and won the last 3 big tournaments of 2011 also (not only) due to the fact that Nadal and Djokovic were mentally on vacation.
 
I never said that he didn't. 2011 was a legit great year. 2015 - NEVER. Just because he already proved in 2011 that he could dominate a strong field doesn't mean that he should get a free pass in 2015 and beyond.



So you're saying that 2014-2015 Federer is still in his prime? I mean he's still reaching Slam finals for fun at the age of 33-34.



Federer played a lot better in 2012 than he did in 2011. In 2011 he delivered the goods at the FO and USO and won the last 3 big tournaments of 2011 also (not only) due to the fact that Nadal and Djokovic were mentally on vacation.
Legit year? Where do you come up with these terms... 2015 is greater in terms of what he achieved. But my point is that he proved in 2011 that he could dominate, which means that 2015 was not a beneficiary. Summon stronger opponents than the ones in 2015 and Djokovic would still win the majority.
I was paying more attention to the performances, not the results. In 2011 he reached the final of his least favorite Slam and won WTF, in 2012 he won a Slam and was a world number 1 for one period - playing excellent tennis along the way, better than in 2014-15.
 
Lol.

Funny how you even bring guys like henman in the convo.

I brought him up as the 2nd tier of good players in a season. Who's in the tier 2 now? BERDYCH? FERRER? Don't make me laugh. Nobody matters below no 5 in any shape of form.

You are trying to argue feds 2004 was better than noles 2011? Really? Can you name professioNAL analysts who support that?

Statistically Federer had a better season in 2006 but the competition was weaker than in 2004 where he still managed to win 3 Slams. Same goes with Djokovic - for me his 2011 was a lot more impressive than his 2015 season even though he had better results in 2015 just about everywhere.

Nobody needs you to agree but most players and commentators have already said 2011 was the most impressive year in terms of beating strong competition.

I agreed with that. But that doesn't mean that Federer couldn't dominate a strong field. As I said - 2004 had 4 players his age who were in their primes. In 2007 he won 3 Slams + a 4th Slam final + the WTF despite having peak Nadal on clay/grass, Djokovic was already there knocking on the door with a Slam final, a couple of SF and Masters wins.

In 2015 the fact that he dominated the season with both Federer and Nadal in the top 5 doesn't mean a lot because quite simply - names don't play. Federer is in his mid 30's and Nadal is in heavy decline.

6~0 against in prime nadal is way more impressive than wins against any player in your list.

Not losing to a single top 10 player throughout the season when the top 10 didn't consisnt of players like Berdych, Ferrer or Gasquet is also impressive, whatever you value.
 
I never said that he didn't. 2011 was a legit great year. 2015 - NEVER. Just because he already proved in 2011 that he could dominate a strong field doesn't mean that he should get a free pass in 2015 and beyond.



So you're saying that 2014-2015 Federer is still in his prime? I mean he's still reaching Slam finals for fun at the age of 33-34.



Federer played a lot better in 2012 than he did in 2011. In 2011 he delivered the goods at the FO and USO and won the last 3 big tournaments of 2011 also (not only) due to the fact that Nadal and Djokovic were mentally on vacation.
11 USO might be Fed's most overrated grand slam tournament (next to the conveniently elevated 2015 Wimby and USO of course). Seems like people go nuts just cause he destroyed Juan frickin Monaco who hit like 4 winners all match. FOUR. And then in that match against Tsonga Fed had more UFE than winners. Tsonga was just that much worse. Yeah he brought it for two sets against Djoker and then went on vacation the next three. That was it. His level was nothing special in that tournament. 2011 Fed brought the goods at FO, and the indoors season. 2010 his lows were even lower but at least when he brought the goods he brought enough to win stuff. 2010 AO and 2010 WTF were better than anything Fed produced in 2011.

Also laughable that 2011 is being argued as a prime year because Federer played well in 2012...what? lol. Fed's prime ended at the 2010 AO. From 2010 IW to 2011 USO he played maybe 5 tournaments at a prime level.
 
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I refer you to Doctor's last post. Just because Federer was in his late twenties doesn't mean he wasn't still capable of playing prime level tennis. The guy's just a freak of nature, I mean he's five years older now and still capable of defeating the world's best player!

He was but not as consistently as in his mid 20's.
 
Legit year? Where do you come up with these terms... 2015 is greater in terms of what he achieved. But my point is that he proved in 2011 that he could dominate, which means that 2015 was not a beneficiary. Summon stronger opponents than the ones in 2015 and Djokovic would still win the majority.

The fact that Djokovic dominated 2011 doesn't mean that he should get virtual walkovers in 2015 and beyond. 2006 Federer is getting flak for a reason because (and I admit this) - his opposition wasn't nearly as strong as in 2004, 2005 or 2007. Safin got injured, Agassi retired, Hewitt played a lot worse, Roddick started pushing the ball. The same way Djokovic's 2015 shouldn't get a free pass.

I was paying more attention to the performances, not the results. In 2011 he reached the final of his least favorite Slam and won WTF, in 2012 he won a Slam and was a world number 1 for one period - playing excellent tennis along the way, better than in 2014-15.

2012, 2014 and 2015 prove that he was still in his prime in 2011? Federer is just a great player, he can produce the goods in his 30's but his level is a lot lower than in his mid 20's.

As @metsman said, Federer only brought his truly prime level at the FO and in the indoor season when Djokovic and Nadal were already on vacation mentally. 1 brilliant match that he played against Djokovic at the FO in 2011 doesn't mean that he was in his prime, come on now.
 
2012 was late prime level tennis besides clay but he was not in his prime in 2011. Just complete bs.
So let's look at 2011: Qatar: defeats a cooked davydenko, AO loses to Djoker, no shame in that even if he was in his prime but he was not playing prime level tennis going 5 against Simon and losing a set to Robredo. Dubai gets destroyed by Djoker, awful match. IW loses to Djoker, again no shame in that. Miami, another awful match gets destroyed by Nadal. Monte Carlo loses 4 and 4 to Melzer...lol Madrid loses to Nadal, no shame in that, Rome loses to Gasquet, FO was a prime level tournament fine, then he loses to Tsonga at Wimby and Canada(getting breadsticked in that final set), Cincy loses to Berdych in straights, USO was meh like I said above and the rest of the year he was at a prime level. So he was at a prime level for no more than 5 tournaments and that is his prime?
 
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Just a shame he has a nasty habit of often producing that prime level tennis whenever he plays Djokovic! :mad:
And that nasty habit of playing poorly on big points the last two years....Whatever Federer has taken from Djoker he has given back the last two years.
 
And that nasty habit of playing poorly on big points the last two years....Whatever Federer has taken from Djoker he has given back the last two years.
That's fair enough. I guess I'm referring more to their best of 3 set matches in the last couple of years. It's uncanny how Fed can look like sh1t earlier on in the tournament(Shanghai '14 says hi) and then play against Djokovic like his life depends on it. In fact in some ways it reminds me of the way Novak has played against Nadal these past couple of years - matchups in tennis are truly fascinating.
 
The fact that Djokovic dominated 2011 doesn't mean that he should get virtual walkovers in 2015 and beyond. 2006 Federer is getting flak for a reason because (and I admit this) - his opposition wasn't nearly as strong as in 2004, 2005 or 2007. Safin got injured, Agassi retired, Hewitt played a lot worse, Roddick started pushing the ball. The same way Djokovic's 2015 shouldn't get a free pass.



2012, 2014 and 2015 prove that he was still in his prime in 2011? Federer is just a great player, he can produce the goods in his 30's but his level is a lot lower than in his mid 20's.

As @metsman said, Federer only brought his truly prime level at the FO and in the indoor season when Djokovic and Nadal were already on vacation mentally. 1 brilliant match that he played against Djokovic at the FO in 2011 doesn't mean that he was in his prime, come on now.
I am not saying he should get virtual walkovers in 2015. I am saying he would have dominated even if there was stronger competition. Same goes for Federer in 2006. He would have dominated even if the competition was tougher back then.
I said 2012, not 2014 and 2015. If Djokovic has a major slump this year but comes back to number 1 and wins a Slam in 2017, I would never say his prime ended after Doha 2016.
Fed did not bring the goods in only one match in 2011, come on now. Why are y'all creating an illusion that prime Federer would never lose several matches to Djokovic in one year? Saying at the USO 2011 semi that he brought the goods in the first two but went missing for the other three is as arrogant as it possibly gets. Why is it so hard to digest that there is another great player not named Nadal that is able to deny prime Federer big titles?
 
Better odds than the PowerBall. :)

Definitely.

I think Stan has had his best days at the Australian Open and this year he wont get into ''Stanimal'' mode if he has to play Djokovic again. Djokovic will have something more to prove. My predictions since Cincinatti have been rubbish.I don't see him getting past the qf.Right now my gut is telling me somebody else will take out Stan.

Raonic at 50/1 might be worth a fiver if I was doing anybody. Just the random outsider. I'm not going to bother. I just don't think anybody else is worth it. Murray being a losing finalist so many times make his odds pretty rubbish, Federer at 8/1. I suppose that could be a better bet than Raonic, but you think certain things have to fall into place and Roger to have no off days against people he is expected to win against. Not just people he expects to beat since he beats everybody in his mind. Somebody has to beat Djokovic for this to happen, somebody has to do the same for Andy Murray. Then somebody has to beat Federer for Andy Murray to win.

I can't wait.
 
If Wawrinka takes out Djokovic and Rafa is on the other end, Rafa will win the Australian Open. Easily.
 
I am not saying he should get virtual walkovers in 2015. I am saying he would have dominated even if there was stronger competition. Same goes for Federer in 2006.
He would have dominated even if the competition was tougher back then.

This is just a theory. I'm leaning towards the same opinion but it doesn't mean anything in the end.

I said 2012, not 2014 and 2015. If Djokovic has a major slump this year but comes back to number 1 and wins a Slam in 2017, I would never say his prime ended after Doha 2016.

So you're saying that Federer was still in his prime in 2011-2012? According to you when did his prime end?

Fed did not bring the goods in only one match in 2011, come on now.

Name 5 matches in 2011 when prime Federer showed up against quality opponents (so that you don't bring up the Monaco demolition at the US Open. He would've done the same even now).

Why are y'all creating an illusion that prime Federer would never lose several matches to Djokovic in one year?

He can and he has. But I'm having a hard time believing Djokovic would win 4 out of 5 matches against Federer if both were in the same stages of their careers, especially at their respective peaks. Djokovic was a lot closer to his best in 2011 (in fact that WAS his best) than Federer. 2011 for Djokovic is like 2005 for Federer. You think that 2005 Federer would lose 4 times against 2011 Djokovic or any other version of Djokovic?

Saying at the USO 2011 semi that he brought the goods in the first two but went missing for the other three is as arrogant as it possibly gets.

Federer played well at the US Open but it wasn't a prime tournament. It was a weird match against Djokovic because first they were both interested in holding serve without caring about the returning games, Federer somehow managed to win the set in a tie-break, Djokovic went missing in the 2nd set then came back for sets 3 and 4 when Federer got missing. Then Federer was lucky to get a break and get to 40-15 in the first place after which Djokovic got even more lucky with that against the odds return winner which rattled Federer, he lost the next 4 games and subsequently the match. Prime Federer would never go away for 2 full sets in such a big match against a top player and I'm also having a hard time imagining him losing from 5-3 40-15 on serve even if Djokovic hit that return again.
 
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If Wawrinka takes out Djokovic and Rafa is on the other end, Rafa will win the Australian Open. Easily.

Easily? I'd go with Nadal too but he's still going to lose a lot of sets at the AO. If such scenario happens Nadal will have to look out not to play too many 5 set matches cause I don't think he can go through consecutive tough matches and win the tournament anymore.
 
Easily? I'd go with Nadal too but he's still going to lose a lot of sets at the AO. If such scenario happens Nadal will have to look out not to play too many 5 set matches cause I don't think he can go through consecutive tough matches and win the tournament anymore.

Even God mode Stan wouldn't stop him. Pain of 2014 wouldn't let it happen. If Rafa saw Novak go down he would know he'll never have a better chance at the double slam and he's already arguably more capable than everyone else on tour.
 
I think he can pull off the upset and take novak out. Murray is no match for Stan and has lost his last three against the Swiss. Depends on the draw but Stan can win this. Betting odds are at 14/1, he has definitely been the money at the slams for the past two years, only issue is his inconsistency but he has not been beaten before the semis since 2014 and in 2013 he did lose in the fourth round against Nole.

Wawrinka is my pick to win the AO. I actually don't think it's much of an upset. That guy has had a major attitude change in the last two years. There is some kind of weird inner confidence he has. Every time he steps on the court, it's like he knows the match is on his racquet. He's either going to crush the opponent, or he's going to go down on unforced errors. As everyone is saying... Djokovic is not Wawrinka's problem. It is consistency.

He reminds me of Del Potro that way.

But I truly feel that at Wawrinka's current level... if he is consistent... he beats anybody on tour. Especially on the big stages.
 
Wawrinka is my pick to win the AO. I actually don't think it's much of an upset. That guy has had a major attitude change in the last two years. There is some kind of weird inner confidence he has. Every time he steps on the court, it's like he knows the match is on his racquet. He's either going to crush the opponent, or he's going to go down on unforced errors. As everyone is saying... Djokovic is not Wawrinka's problem. It is consistency.

He reminds me of Del Potro that way.

But I truly feel that at Wawrinka's current level...
If he is consistent... he beats anybody on tour. Especially on the big stages.
And that's one helluva big "if" with Stan.
 
I'm saying there are match ups in tennis. Attacking players like Wawrinka match up well against Djokovic. Peak to peak, Djokovic vs. Wawrinka and Wawrinka wins.

Except that Djokovic wins more often than not....Wawrinka has done very well against Novak, but he still loses more often than not.
 
I guess the joke is on you.

Wawrinka in this kind of mood just doesn't allow Djokovic to play the way he likes. Gives him absolutely no rhythm like Nadal does.

Since 2013 Djokovic is 8-2 against Wawrinka. Yes Wawrinka has 2 very nice wins and has had some good matches, but he still, peak to peak, does NOT beat Djokovic more often than not.
 
is stan the first player to win a grand slam (AO 2014) before ATP 1000 master event (monte carlo 2014)

and the first player to win more grand slams than ATP 1000 master events

ie two grand slams (AO 2014 and FO 2015) and only one master event (monte carlo 2014)
 
Kafelnikov had 2 slams and 0 masters

Gaudio had his one RG championship and never even made a Masters final (nor did he even make another QF or better at any other major)
 
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is stan the first player to win a grand slam (AO 2014) before ATP 1000 master event (monte carlo 2014)

and the first player to win more grand slams than ATP 1000 master events

ie two grand slams (AO 2014 and FO 2015) and only one master event (monte carlo 2014)

Kuerten.

Sampras.
 
If only Rafa hadn't hurt his back warming up. Oh well. Revenge would be sweet, as would the tears of the haters.
Hurt his back trying (and failing) to keep up with Stan, you mean?
These things happen.

No excuses, though.
 
This is just a theory. I'm leaning towards the same opinion but it doesn't mean anything in the end.



So you're saying that Federer was still in his prime in 2011-2012? According to you when did his prime end?



Name 5 matches in 2011 when prime Federer showed up against quality opponents (so that you don't bring up the Monaco demolition at the US Open. He would've done the same even now).



He can and he has. But I'm having a hard time believing Djokovic would win 4 out of 5 matches against Federer if both were in the same stages of their careers, especially at their respective peaks. Djokovic was a lot closer to his best in 2011 (in fact that WAS his best) than Federer. 2011 for Djokovic is like 2005 for Federer. You think that 2005 Federer would lose 4 times against 2011 Djokovic or any other version of Djokovic?



Federer played well at the US Open but it wasn't a prime tournament. It was a weird match against Djokovic because first they were both interested in holding serve without caring about the returning games, Federer somehow managed to win the set in a tie-break, Djokovic went missing in the 2nd set then came back for sets 3 and 4 when Federer got missing. Then Federer was lucky to get a break and get to 40-15 in the first place after which Djokovic got even more lucky with that against the odds return winner which rattled Federer, he lost the next 4 games and subsequently the match. Prime Federer would never go away for 2 full sets in such a big match against a top player and I'm also having a hard time imagining him losing from 5-3 40-15 on serve even if Djokovic hit that return again.
IMO his prime ended at the end of 2012.
Even if we erase the USO semis, you have AO, IW, Madrid, FO, Basel, Bercy, WTF. Would need to rewatch his Dubai final and Miami semi to tell better about those, but my guess is he was not too impressive there.
When looking at tournaments where they faced each other that year, peak Djokovic would still triumph in more matches than not. Then again, it is all a hypothetical. My guess is not better or worse than any other.
 
IMO his prime ended at the end of 2012.
Even if we erase the USO semis, you have AO, IW, Madrid, FO, Basel, Bercy, WTF. Would need to rewatch his Dubai final and Miami semi to tell better about those, but my guess is he was not too impressive there.
When looking at tournaments where they faced each other that year, peak Djokovic would still triumph in more matches than not. Then again, it is all a hypothetical. My guess is not better or worse than any other.
I think post-AO 2010 is the best candidate for the end of Fed's prime.
There is a clear drop-off in his results from then on.
 
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