Haven’t followed the wake guys individually. Stanford has a shot which is better than what we could say against the top 4 but I would not say we're favored.
My analysis:
Doubles:
Koons/Suresh vs Basing/Godsick: Koons/Suresh is the #2 ranked pair in the country and Basing/Godsick are inconsistent at best, 80/20 wfu
Moroni/Thomson vs Basaverddy/Banerjee - B&B have been plying great and Moroni Thomson don't seem like anything special, but doubles is high variance. 70/30 stanford
Taichi/Pow vs Chaudhury/Parikh - Kind of a mid off, neither team has a great record. Taicchi/Pow have much higher UTRs though, so I'll give them a 6/40 chance
Singles:
1. Mornoni (13.29) vs Basavareddy (14.41): Moroni is actually a very strong #1 with a slightly deflated UTR because he seems to not try against worse schools/have some weird losses. But he has good wins too (W over Cassone, Chauvinc, Martin). Basavareddy has also had some long matches with players who UTR says he should be beating handily (Smith, Martinez). 70/30 Basavareddy, bigger risk is that they play a long match and can't get a point here
2. Suresh (13.49) vs Banerjee (13.42): Banerjee has been very inconsistent, with some great wins (Montsi, Artnak, SFs of a 15k), with some bad losses (Overbeck, Westrate, Johnson). Suresh's history is pretty similar with a bit more consistency. 60/40 suresh given Banerjee's recent injury history
3. Thompson (12.xx) vs Basing (13.13). Honestly I thought Basing was playing worse than he is. He's struggling against players with higher UTR but is still routining <13s. Thomson also seems to be improving. 50/50
4. Taicchi (13.29) vs Kang (13.35) Kang was starting to play extremely well pre-wrist injury, huge wins (Quinn, Hoyeral), but his wrist injury has meant offlate he hasn't played that well (lost to Hoyeral 2nd time around, lost to Alvarez). I think if his wrist is healed up he should actually be the favorite in this match, but since we don't know about that I'll call it even 50/50
5. Pow (13.xx) vs Rajesh (13.01). Rajesh is normally a lock since the weaker teams start to fall off in the 5/6 spots, but not WFU. Rajesh has actually lost all his matches to players > 13 utr. Pow also played well against ASU. 70/30 Pow
6. Koons (13.08) vs Godsick (12.61). Another tough out for stanford, UTR 13s at 6 is rough. Koons did seem a bit shaky against ASU and has some inconsistent losses in his history. Godsick is more consistent and seems to have been improving through the end of the season, but still doesn't have any wins against a 13+ opponent. Due to the UTR gap I'll say 70/30 Koons.
Damn, looks like a much tougher ask than I thought. Our best path to winning looks like 4/5 of these (in order of liklihood):
Basavareddy
Banerjee
Basing or Kang
Doubles point
Seems quite unlikely we'll get a point out of 5 or 6. stanford essentially needs 4/5 coin flips to all go their way (Basavareddy's edge is balanced out but doubles/Banerjee weakness), so about a 15% chance of winning which seems about right.