TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
As of the current moment, the top 4 in the rankings are as follows:
Djokovic 8340
Medvedev 8230
Zverev 7465
Nadal 6935
Over the course of the next few weeks, there is a lot of potential for change. Let's work our way through. We'll be assuming Medvedev returns in RG because I have absolutely no information on that, and Nadal will return between Madrid and RG.
Scenario 1: Djokovic starts playing well, Medvedev doesn't return to top level for a while, Zverev plays mediocre, Nadal returns in Madrid/Rome.
In this scenario, Djokovic likely holds on to #1 until RG. Zverev will not be playing Barcelona or Madrid, but may play Munich. If Djokovic wins Belgrade, then the #1 ranking mostly comes down to who can perform better in Madrid and Rome, and both will need at least 500 points (as they need those to keep Medvedev from being #1).
Djokovic would likely hold #1 until Rome, where it would be in play. After RG, unless Zverev/Djokovic were able to defend their points, Medvedev would be #1. There is an outside chance that Nadal could scrounge up over 2600 points during Madrid/Rome/RG but it isn't necessarily super likely, given he'd be coming off a long break and surgery. If he does, then #1 after RG is Nadal. No chance he becomes #1 before RG.
Scenario 2: Djokovic starts playing well, Medvedev doesn't return to top level for a while, Zverev plays poorly, Nadal returns in Madrid/Rome.
It's fairly similar to Scenario 1, except Zverev is no longer a threat during Rome/RG. Without Zverev for a threat, Djokovic could probably start getting SF/F/Ws at Madrid and Rome, gaining some points. This is the safest scenario for Djokovic, but Nadal remains an incredible threat by gaining clay points. Once Wimbledon occurs, very little chance Djokovic remains #1.
Scenario 3: Djokovic slow return, Medvedev doesn't return to top level for a while, Zverev plays well, Nadal returns in Madrid/Rome.
If Djokovic can't fend off Zverev at all, Zverev could grab #1 in Madrid and carry it through RG. Even without winning, Zverev could scrounge up enough points to carry #1 through Wimbledon or Cincinnati, where Nadal eventually takes #1.
Scenario 4: Djokovic slow return, Medvedev returns in great form at Rome, Zverev plays ok, Nadal returns in Madrid/Rome.
In this scenario, Medvedev gets #1 almost by default in Madrid, then raises the bar in Rome and RG, picking up some points he didn't have before. This would be similar to Scenario 3, except Medvedev instead of Zverev. He'd have a lot to defend in the late season, where Rafa would likely eventually overtake him.
Scenario 5: Everyone plays poorly.
Outside chance Tsitsipas starts sweeping clay. If none of the top 4 are in great form by RG, Tsitsipas starts seeming like a good bet. He could hypothetically grab #1 by Rome, but most realistically he'd need to win RG to get #1.
Scenario 6: Rafa returns in great form.
It doesn't matter who does what in the next couple weeks if Rafa returns in fantastic form. If he's ready, he wins Rome + RG and takes #1 from whoever it is that has it. He would not let it go for several months at least.
Scenario 7: Rafa returns in bad form.
Whoever is #1 by RG would likely remain #1 for some time if Nadal is in poor form. If Djokovic, he'd probably lose it around Wimbledon because Zverev/Medvedev have a lot to gain there. If Zverev/Medvedev, they'd need to back up their #1 seeding at Wimbledon with a good performance. Whoever it is, the rankings remain quite volatile well into the late season.
In all but the final scenario, Rafa's ascent to #1 is almost guaranteed. Being so far ahead in the race while the other people in the top 4 are over 1000 points behind makes it almost inevitable at some point in the season.
Djokovic 8340
Medvedev 8230
Zverev 7465
Nadal 6935
Djokovic 8250
Medvedev 8080
Zverev 7465
Nadal 6435
Medvedev 8080
Zverev 7465
Nadal 6435
Djokovic 7750
Medvedev 7990
Zverev 7465
Nadal 6255
Medvedev 7990
Zverev 7465
Nadal 6255
Djokovic 7150
Medvedev 7980
Zverev 7465
Nadal 5255
Medvedev 7980
Zverev 7465
Nadal 5255
Over the course of the next few weeks, there is a lot of potential for change. Let's work our way through. We'll be assuming Medvedev returns in RG because I have absolutely no information on that, and Nadal will return between Madrid and RG.
Scenario 1: Djokovic starts playing well, Medvedev doesn't return to top level for a while, Zverev plays mediocre, Nadal returns in Madrid/Rome.
In this scenario, Djokovic likely holds on to #1 until RG. Zverev will not be playing Barcelona or Madrid, but may play Munich. If Djokovic wins Belgrade, then the #1 ranking mostly comes down to who can perform better in Madrid and Rome, and both will need at least 500 points (as they need those to keep Medvedev from being #1).
Djokovic would likely hold #1 until Rome, where it would be in play. After RG, unless Zverev/Djokovic were able to defend their points, Medvedev would be #1. There is an outside chance that Nadal could scrounge up over 2600 points during Madrid/Rome/RG but it isn't necessarily super likely, given he'd be coming off a long break and surgery. If he does, then #1 after RG is Nadal. No chance he becomes #1 before RG.
Scenario 2: Djokovic starts playing well, Medvedev doesn't return to top level for a while, Zverev plays poorly, Nadal returns in Madrid/Rome.
It's fairly similar to Scenario 1, except Zverev is no longer a threat during Rome/RG. Without Zverev for a threat, Djokovic could probably start getting SF/F/Ws at Madrid and Rome, gaining some points. This is the safest scenario for Djokovic, but Nadal remains an incredible threat by gaining clay points. Once Wimbledon occurs, very little chance Djokovic remains #1.
Scenario 3: Djokovic slow return, Medvedev doesn't return to top level for a while, Zverev plays well, Nadal returns in Madrid/Rome.
If Djokovic can't fend off Zverev at all, Zverev could grab #1 in Madrid and carry it through RG. Even without winning, Zverev could scrounge up enough points to carry #1 through Wimbledon or Cincinnati, where Nadal eventually takes #1.
Scenario 4: Djokovic slow return, Medvedev returns in great form at Rome, Zverev plays ok, Nadal returns in Madrid/Rome.
In this scenario, Medvedev gets #1 almost by default in Madrid, then raises the bar in Rome and RG, picking up some points he didn't have before. This would be similar to Scenario 3, except Medvedev instead of Zverev. He'd have a lot to defend in the late season, where Rafa would likely eventually overtake him.
Scenario 5: Everyone plays poorly.
Outside chance Tsitsipas starts sweeping clay. If none of the top 4 are in great form by RG, Tsitsipas starts seeming like a good bet. He could hypothetically grab #1 by Rome, but most realistically he'd need to win RG to get #1.
Scenario 6: Rafa returns in great form.
It doesn't matter who does what in the next couple weeks if Rafa returns in fantastic form. If he's ready, he wins Rome + RG and takes #1 from whoever it is that has it. He would not let it go for several months at least.
Scenario 7: Rafa returns in bad form.
Whoever is #1 by RG would likely remain #1 for some time if Nadal is in poor form. If Djokovic, he'd probably lose it around Wimbledon because Zverev/Medvedev have a lot to gain there. If Zverev/Medvedev, they'd need to back up their #1 seeding at Wimbledon with a good performance. Whoever it is, the rankings remain quite volatile well into the late season.
In all but the final scenario, Rafa's ascent to #1 is almost guaranteed. Being so far ahead in the race while the other people in the top 4 are over 1000 points behind makes it almost inevitable at some point in the season.
