Stop the Press: Zederer betterer than Federer on Grass in 2017

Meles

Meles

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2017ZedFedGrass.png


Federer is up nicely to 54.5% of total points won matching his career average and betterer than 2016's 53.3%. The big jump is in the critical return department where Federer is up 3.5% to 39.7% on return points won (thanks Ljubicec
loveshower.gif
). This bodes very well for Federer's Wimbledon chances and it is above his career average by a substantial 1.5% and it is on par with some of his peak years save the Youngerer days back in 2003 and 2004.:eek: Serve numbers are not as good particularly on 2nd serve where the last two years of 56.1% is well below career average and the 61.2-63.2% of Fed's pomp (yes the stats show Grandpaerer doesn't move as well.) Overall though, 2017 stats with those nice return numbers for Fed are more than good enough to win Wimbledon and much betterer than 2012.
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STOP THE PRESS!
Zverev is massively improved from 2016 much more so than Fed and better than Fed across the board except on 2nd serve points won where despite hitting 180 kph serves on average for 2nd serve Zed has a paltry 52.0% points won. Zed is nicely improved from this stat from 2016, but still well down from his astounding 2nd serve performance on clay.:confused: Zederer has the numbers just like Federer.:cool:

A note on Cilic and Feliciano. Cilic is right behind Zverev with 55.4% of points won with lesser return numbers and a shockingly good 88.4% on first serve points won. 2014 US Open Cilic looks to be in route to Wimbledon.
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Feliciano for comparison sake is at 51.8% points won and Pouille 49.1%.:confused:

Scary times for Fed fans on grass given Zverev has won their last two encounters and is massively improved.
 
TheFifthSet said:
Great sample size.
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Grass is always like reading the tea leaves because of this issue. I was expecting Zverev to be much lower given some of his troubles this year. I generally stay away from grass stats because of sample size issues, but taken over multiple years I'd say this is in the ball park for Federer. I'd say the new backhand is working quite well based on the few matches I've seen. Zverev was massively improved on clay and that jump could be seen building in his hard court numbers in 2016. His serve numbers were expected to jump, but the big surprise for me is that his 2nd serve numbers have not jumped a lot. Saw serving stat that Zed is very predictable on 2nd serve and Gasquet was able to expose that some in their Halle SF.:confused: Cilic had some very nice clay stats and play so it is not a big surprise to see him prospering on grass.;)
 
abmk said:
someone please ban Meles from talking about stats. :D
He doesn't know how to apply context/use them correctly.
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I do quite well with them, but of course grass really only part of the picture because of sample size. Zverev and Cilic's performance earlier this year on clay lends credence to their numbers on grass. Possible toaster burns incoming for Fed's derrier in the Halle final.;)
 
Meles said:
I do quite well with them, but of course grass really only part of the picture because of sample size. Zverev and Cilic's performance earlier this year on clay lends credence to their numbers on grass. Possible toaster burns incoming for Fed's derrier in the Halle final.;)
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No, you don't.

even with the limited sample size :

2017 ( for federer):

87% service games won
20% return games won( thanks to 25% BP conversion rate )

2012 ( for federer) :

91% service games won
25% return games won (38% BP conversion rate)

anyone who watched would know federer's been squandering BPs at halle (& Haas match in stuttgart) in 2017
and he returned well and broke enough times in the 2 most important matches at wimby 12 ( djokovic and murray -- 3 times and 4 times respectively)

---
 
abmk said:
No, you don't.

even with the limited sample size :

2017 ( for federer):

87% service games won
20% return games ( thanks to 25% BP conversion rate )

2012 ( for federer) :

91% service games won
25% return games (38% BP conversion rate)

anyone who watched would know federer's been squandering BPs at halle (& Haas match in stuttgart) in 2017
and he returned well and broke enough times in the 2 most important matches at wimby 12 ( djokovic and murray -- 3 times and 4 times respectively)

---
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Points stats are more reliable over the long haul for showing what is under the hood of a player. Insane BP conversion rates do not hold up with time and come back to the points numbers.;) All this shows is Fed isn't really trying yet in 2017.:rolleyes:
 
kabob said:
Oh sure, a loss coming off knee surgery and a loss in an exo coming off a 6 month layoff to fully heal said knee is totes indicative of current form.
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Well that isn't why Zed's stats have skyrocketed so think again.:p We have 2017 grass stats showing Zed and Fed are neck and neck. I saw the Hobart match and both played quite well. In fact I called for Fed winning Auz once I saw the draw based on that match. Zverev has improved much more since then.;)
 
kabob said:
Zed Younger's had to play two 3-setters in a row and two matches today and two matches tomorrow. He might be 20 years old but even that's asking a bit much.
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I agree, but at least he finished both of those matches quite strongly. My sense is he has enough gas to win in 2 sets; 3 sets.:confused:
 
I often find the stats misleading because unless you play the exact same field in the given samples you won't get the full picture. Federer could win Halle and lose to a floater in the 3rd round of Wimbledon if he gets such a draw and stats won't mean anything.
 
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Meles said:
Points stats are more reliable over the long haul for showing what is under the hood of a player. Insane BP conversion rates do not hold up with time and come back to the points numbers.;) All this shows is Fed isn't really trying yet in 2017.:rolleyes:
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we'll see when it happens.

the "long haul" is one more tournament.

Its likely that federer improves it, but he needs to. One match where he doesn't could come to bite him in the a** , especially on grass.

in 2017

1st return points won : 30%
2nd return points won : 49%

----

in 2012

1st return points won : 31%
2nd return points won : 52%

so explain again how the return numbers are much betterer in 2017 compared to 2012 ? :rolleyes:
 
Meles said:
Scary times for Fed fans on grass given Zverev has won their last two encounters and is massively improved.
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The Hopman Cup is an exo as you know, and is meaningless. They've split their 2 ATP matches, Fed winning on clay in 2016 in Rome.

But I agree with the rest of it. I would be quite surprised if Fed wins Halle. His form has been anemic since his hiatus.
 
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I would hate to make any conclusions based on a sample size less than 10.

Let us see if Fed can reach QF and then stats would have meaning

If Fed's opponents were Brown, Muller, Lopez and Karlovic this week he would have not have earned these many return points also

What is easy to tell is the serve. It is clearly not at the 2014-15 level
 
@Meles @abmk @Chanwan @Gary Duane

I'm going to ignore Stuttgart as it was first match back. Below are stats for Halle.

To me there's absolutely no difference in these tea leaves. Stats are not significantly different given this tiny sample. (Ignore differences in opponents' ranking - Mayer ranked 130+ but defending champ.)

On the other hand, Fed been getting better and betterer as tournie has proceeded. Also has revenge on his mind. Whereas Zverev's been inconsistent for last two matches. Which could be a sign of fatigue.

I'm calling it for Fed in 2. One set goes to 5-5 and the other doesn't.



Stats RF - AZ

Sets 8/0 - 8/2

Hold% 93 - 96 (i.e. 3 breaks vs 2 => meaningless)
Break% 28 - 31 (but 25 - 23 in QF + SF)

%SPW 72 - 77
%RPW 41 - 39
%PW 55 - 56

AveOpp 67 - 35
MdnOpp 52 - 32
 
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abmk said:
we'll see when it happens.

the "long haul" is one more tournament.

Its likely that federer improves it, but he needs to. One match where he doesn't could come to bite him in the a** , especially on grass.

in 2017

1st return points won : 30%
2nd return points won : 49%

----

in 2012

1st return points won : 31%
2nd return points won : 52%

so explain again how the return numbers are much betterer in 2017 compared to 2012 ? :rolleyes:
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My stats are from 2017 through the last match from tennis abstract. ATP stats would only show Stuttgart. Ditto tennis abstract grass leaders.

As @tennisaddict states Federer's serve is down in 2017 compared to 2014 and 2015 so he's got room for improvement on that front, but sadly I fear it's his 2nd serve stats that are down which won't come back easily as I expect that is movement related.:confused: Fed had fine grass stats in 2013, but still went down to Stahkovsky in 4 sets in a close match on the points stats due to failing to convert on break points. Grass is a risky surface (unlike clay) so upsets perhaps more likely.:eek:

Often Wimbledon will pad the stats as the first and second round opponents are generally quite trouncable. Nadal and Thiem's stats jumped significantly on clay after RG this year. Given that, I take these early signs from Fed still as a good sign and he is much more confident than 2013 on all surfaces.:p

It is very early, but I still see these as positive signs and Fed's game looks a lot better than this point in 2016 where he by all rights should have made the Wimbledon final. Not expecting Berdy, Murray, or Raonic to be much of a threat this year. The danger players look like Zverev and Cilic. Both are coming in off jaw dropping clay seasons and so look to be in very, very solid form on grass. Cilic has looked a bit shaky to me watching him, but those numbers are powerful and the best first serve numbers he's had on grass. Dimitrov was appalling against Feliciano in their Queens SF with his backhand totally falling apart in the final set. Really shocking given his level earlier in the year and the success with Valverdu. Very interested to see Nadal at Wimbledon as he seems miraculously better on serve. Like Agassi, Nadal will be a contender at Wimbledon if he can hold serve really well and he's had great stats and has been a bit clutch this year. Djokovic will be very, very interesting to follow at Eastbourne next week.:oops: Doubt he gets his game in top shape, but he is two seed and could play himself into a semblance of decent form by the latter stages when it's needed with the right draw.:confused: Zed, Fed, and Cilic are the horses right now.:p Zed needs to beat Fed to ensure he can't be in the same quarter as Cilic so the draw stays balanced.:cool:
 
tennis_pro said:
I often find the stats misleading because unless you play the exact same field in the given samples you won't get the full picture. Federer could win Halle and lose to a floater in the 3rd round of Wimbledon if he gets such a draw and stats won't mean anything.
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They are awful for straight up betting for sure. For me head to head is a biggie, then maybe general ranking, but when worked with those two factors stats can be a nice tool. Hope Zed isn't somehow gassed for Fed.:confused: LOL if this turns into a Thiem vs Djoko type Rome match.:D
 
Unfortunately there's no metric for mental midget measurements, something the new generation unfortunately has in between the ears en masse against the big four.
 
While I always enjoy a good statistical breakdown "on grass" + "in 2017" on June 24.... means 2 things: Jack + Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit
 
Meles said:
My stats are from 2017 through the last match from tennis abstract. ATP stats would only show Stuttgart. Ditto tennis abstract grass leaders.

As @tennisaddict states Federer's serve is down in 2017 compared to 2014 and 2015 so he's got room for improvement on that front, but sadly I fear it's his 2nd serve stats that are down which won't come back easily as I expect that is movement related.:confused: Fed had fine grass stats in 2013, but still went down to Stahkovsky in 4 sets in a close match on the points stats due to failing to convert on break points. Grass is a risky surface (unlike clay) so upsets perhaps more likely.:eek:

Often Wimbledon will pad the stats as the first and second round opponents are generally quite trouncable. Nadal and Thiem's stats jumped significantly on clay after RG this year. Given that, I take these early signs from Fed still as a good sign and he is much more confident than 2013 on all surfaces.:p
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I computed for all the matches and I got:

for 2017:

1st serve return % points won = 31.27%
2nd serve return% points won = 50%

for 2012 , it was

1st return points won : 31%
2nd return points won : 52%

so how is it that much better than 2012 again ?

the early round advantages at wimby is offset to some extent by playing the top guys at the end -- see DJokovic/Murray in 12.

Meles said:
It is very early, but I still see these as positive signs and Fed's game looks a lot better than this point in 2016 where he by all rights should have made the Wimbledon final. Not expecting Berdy, Murray, or Raonic to be much of a threat this year. The danger players look like Zverev and Cilic. Both are coming in off jaw dropping clay seasons and so look to be in very, very solid form on grass. Cilic has looked a bit shaky to me watching him, but those numbers are powerful and the best first serve numbers he's had on grass. Dimitrov was appalling against Feliciano in their Queens SF with his backhand totally falling apart in the final set. Really shocking given his level earlier in the year and the success with Valverdu. Very interested to see Nadal at Wimbledon as he seems miraculously better on serve. Like Agassi, Nadal will be a contender at Wimbledon if he can hold serve really well and he's had great stats and has been a bit clutch this year. Djokovic will be very, very interesting to follow at Eastbourne next week.:oops: Doubt he gets his game in top shape, but he is two seed and could play himself into a semblance of decent form by the latter stages when it's needed with the right draw.:confused: Zed, Fed, and Cilic are the horses right now.:p Zed needs to beat Fed to ensure he can't be in the same quarter as Cilic so the draw stays balanced.:cool:
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well, of course, its better than 16, he was beset with injury problems at that time and he played because it was Wimbledon.

yes, Cilic has been playing well, so has A.Zverev.
 
abmk said:
I computed for all the matches and I got:

for 2017:

1st serve return % points won = 31.27%
2nd serve return% points won = 50%

for 2012 , it was

1st return points won : 31%
2nd return points won : 52%

so how is it that much better than 2012 again ?

the early round advantages at wimby is offset to some extent by playing the top guys at the end -- see DJokovic/Murray in 12.



well, of course, its better than 16, he was beset with injury problems at that time and he played because it was Wimbledon.

yes, Cilic has been playing well, so has A.Zverev.
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I've never done detailed grass stats on Federer so I'm at the mercy of tennis abstract and it really irks me that they don't break out first and second return.:mad: I have a lot of faith in their total points numbers and have no reason doubt the 2017 number on returns which is higher. The only possible explanation other than a calculation error is that the opponents in 2012 got a lot of first serves in against Federer. 2017 matches don't look really low which would also cause this... I just perused the Federer grass matches in 2012 and it looks like the opponents did serve a high percentage of first serves to Federer which would explain 2012 being lower than 2017. That is really flukey, but looks like Fed played a number of clay courters on grass in 2012 plus some servebots like Isner who poured in high first serves (Delpo 70.3%, Isner 72.1%, Benneteau hit over 68% one match, Falla 72.0%, Youzhny 64.6%, Malisse 71.2%, Fognini 74.0%, Raonic 65.7%). It makes for an interesting conundrum in evaluating return.:oops: For career on hard courts Marcelo Rios had opponents' serve 56.2% while Fernando Gonzalez got hit with 61.8% by opponents on hard courts. It's hard to figure out the rhyme or reason for such a big difference and Fernando Gonzalez had a pretty bad 2nd return game and Rios a pretty good one so not sure why the opponents got more first serves in against Gonzo.:confused: It may not be any deliberate strategy, but perhaps something to do with the type of hard court event they excelled in biasing towards a certain serve type.:cool:
 
He sure is talented, but he has to go deeper than R3 in a slam before i consider him a real threat to Roger at Wimbledon. He might win todays match though, but i dont think that will affect Rogers Wimbledon chances.
 
Jonas78 said:
He sure is talented, but he has to go deeper than R3 in a slam before i consider him a real threat to Roger at Wimbledon. He might win todays match though, but i dont think that will affect Rogers Wimbledon chances.
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I'd say grass is the most likely surface these days for an early breakthrough. Zverev can go deep if he dominates his early opposition like Thiem at RG. If he wins tomorrow he'll be 8 seed.
tenor.gif

who gets Zed as QF opponent after straight setting his way through the Wimbledon draw.:eek:
 
Meles said:
I'd say grass is the most likely surface these days for an early breakthrough. Zverev can go deep if he dominates his early opposition like Thiem at RG. If he wins tomorrow he'll be 8 seed.
tenor.gif

who gets Zed as QF opponent after straight setting his way through the Wimbledon draw.:eek:
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Dont get me wrong, ive been hoping for the breakthrough of NextGen for a long time. But we have seen time after time that playing 7 BO5's is something else. I think Zverevs first slam is at least a year ahead.
 
Federer and Del Potro said:
LOL.

Despite being a Federer die-hard, I'm almost ready for the next gen to take over. Almost.

I mean it's going to happen eventually anyway.

Let's start the Thiem Kyrgios rivalry already.
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Hard to say what that might be like.:confused: Zverev vs Thiem should be good. I'd be in heaven if these two really stepped up to challenge Fedal pronto. Thiem looks to be focusing on hard courts of all things foregoing July clay for top seeding at the Citi Open in Washington.:confused: Probably rolls out Thiem vs Rafa (4 huge matches on clay this year) and Zverev vs Fed and Nadal off clay. I wouldn't mind Thiem getting a crack at Federer or Nadal at Wimbledon.:p
 
Meles said:
Hard to say what that might be like.:confused: Zverev vs Thiem should be good. I'd be in heaven if these two really stepped up to challenge Fedal pronto. Thiem looks to be focusing on hard courts of all things foregoing July clay for top seeding at the Citi Open in Washington.:confused: Probably rolls out Thiem vs Rafa (4 huge matches on clay this year) and Zverev vs Fed and Nadal off clay. I wouldn't mind Thiem getting a crack at Federer or Nadal at Wimbledon.:p
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Kyrgios-Zverev is going to be a good rivalry too, you can just tell.
 
Meles said:
I've never done detailed grass stats on Federer so I'm at the mercy of tennis abstract and it really irks me that they don't break out first and second return.:mad: I have a lot of faith in their total points numbers and have no reason doubt the 2017 number on returns which is higher. The only possible explanation other than a calculation error is that the opponents in 2012 got a lot of first serves in against Federer. 2017 matches don't look really low which would also cause this... I just perused the Federer grass matches in 2012 and it looks like the opponents did serve a high percentage of first serves to Federer which would explain 2012 being lower than 2017. That is really flukey, but looks like Fed played a number of clay courters on grass in 2012 plus some servebots like Isner who poured in high first serves (Delpo 70.3%, Isner 72.1%, Benneteau hit over 68% one match, Falla 72.0%, Youzhny 64.6%, Malisse 71.2%, Fognini 74.0%, Raonic 65.7%). It makes for an interesting conundrum in evaluating return.:oops: For career on hard courts Marcelo Rios had opponents' serve 56.2% while Fernando Gonzalez got hit with 61.8% by opponents on hard courts. It's hard to figure out the rhyme or reason for such a big difference and Fernando Gonzalez had a pretty bad 2nd return game and Rios a pretty good one so not sure why the opponents got more first serves in against Gonzo.:confused: It may not be any deliberate strategy, but perhaps something to do with the type of hard court event they excelled in biasing towards a certain serve type.:cool:
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what on earth are you on about ?

for 2017 , take each of the matches from fed's player activity on ATP website. Put in excel sheet and compute - 1st serve return points, 2nd serve return points, Bp chances etc.

taking everything, you have return % points won for fed in 2017 is 38.6%



2012 stats are directly available under fed's profile on the ATP website.

you have his return points % as 38 for that year ( rounded off , obviously )

you don't need to compute/check the %s of the opponents serves.
 
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