Surveying Surface Sensitivity & Serve Success

[Rovesciarete]

Jeff Sackmann has looked at how sensitive ATP players are to surface speed. Checking it against common sense, aka as well-known players, it seems very plausible. The article is highly recommended.

Player Sensitivity

Novak Djokovic 8.7
Adrian Mannarino 7.9
Matteo Berrettini 4.0
Felix Auger-Aliassime 2.1
Hubert Hurkacz 1.7

Carlos Alcaraz 1.4
Andy Murray -0.9
Grigor Dimitrov -1.1
Roberto Bautista Agut -1.2
Alex de Minaur -1.2
Karen Khachanov -1.4
Jannik Sinner -1.4

Daniil Medvedev -3.4
Casper Ruud -5.0
Diego Schwartzman -5.4
Francisco Cerundolo -5.9
Rafael Nadal -9.9
Stefanos Tsitsipas -10.2
Lorenzo Musetti -11.2

A sensitivity rating of 7.9 means that Mannarino is about 100 Elo points worse in Rotterdam than he is Marseille, according to Sackmann.

The ATP finals being the third-fastest make it the ideal hunting ground of Novak, while Rafa will suffer a huge performance drop. Alcaraz seems to be profit from slightly faster conditions than Sinner but both are really among the most balanced players. Musetti can do great on clay but is out in the wild on anything fast.

Needless to say it fits my perception of Novak’s and Rafa’s best surfaces well. Fast hardcourt slightly ahead of grass with clay a distant third versus slow clay way ahead of the rest.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Look at where Djokovic is ranked. He has pulled off one of the greatest tricks an ATG has ever played, becoming one of the best fast-court specialists of all time during his long career but still able to out-grind most. However during his last years slow surfaces increasingly narrow his margin of safety. IW plays somewhat faster this year but remember:

 

[nolefam_2024]

Do you still agree with this conclusion ?

I think it's right one and Novak losing 2 wimby back to back while beating Carlos 2 times on PC is anamoly

But where there is smoke there is fire. Some are calling slow courts as his favorite now

 

[Rovesciarete]

Do you still agree with this conclusion ?

I think it's right one and Novak losing 2 wimby back to back while beating Carlos 2 times on PC is anamoly

But where there is smoke there is fire. Some are calling slow courts as his favorite now

I think that the question is against whom? Novak brilliance is that he can adapt his game like no other top player, maybe apart from a well-coached Alcaraz.

Nole has been the best slow-court player for much of his career, apart from Nadal on clay. If his fitness level is great on the day he can still hurt you plenty on the slow stuff with his old and weakened playbook augmented by a great serve and especially a great forehand.

Rarely have I been more impressed with that wing than in the golden final. Will be interesting if we see a more patient Djokovic against Sinner this year.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I think that the question is against whom? Novak brilliance is that he can adapt his game like no other top player, maybe apart from a well-coached Alcaraz.

Nole has been the best slow-court player for much of his career, apart from Nadal on clay. If his fitness level is great on the day he can still hurt you plenty on the slow stuff with his old and weakened playbook augmented by a great serve and especially a great forehand.

Rarely have I been more impressed with that wing than in the golden final. Will be interesting if we see a more patient Djokovic against Sinner this year.

It's his forehand that is saving him from totally decline tbh , it's that good. So slow surface does give him a lot of time to unload from it.

The sensitivity might be wrong I think because it took into account mc Madrid Rome losses where nole is just trying to find rhythm now. He is as even as Carlos and Jannik

 

[socallefty]

For a lot of his career, he was 2nd best to Nadal on slow clay and 2nd best to Federer on the fastest indoor surfaces with the ability to beat them both on some days when he was in good form. As he has gotten older, I think he prefers faster surfaces and quicker points, but is still winning titles at the FO and at Olympics on clay. Unbelievable versatility.

 

[Rovesciarete]

It's his forehand that is saving him from totally decline tbh , it's that good. So slow surface does give him a lot of time to unload from it.

The sensitivity might be wrong I think because it took into account mc Madrid Rome losses where nole is just trying to find rhythm now. He is as even as Carlos and Jannik

He had much success attacking the forehands of the young stars and on grass & (very) fast hard and clay there is more payoff for the risk. On clay it is the weight and on the fast staff the speed of shot, while normal hardcourt can be an unhappy middle road.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Do you still agree with this conclusion ?

I think it's right one and Novak losing 2 wimby back to back while beating Carlos 2 times on PC is anamoly

But where there is smoke there is fire. Some are calling slow courts as his favorite now

After the 2025 spring the stats reinforce the opposite - which seems to be our common view. The fastest tournament was by far his best so far, while he suffered terribly in slower conditions.

Interestingly Barcelona is now slower than Monte.