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Tennis’ Crystal Ball: A Sneak Peak into the next two weeks.
As the red dust of court Philippe Chatrier settled from a two week long beating at the hands of Rafael Nadal, the luscious and green lawns of Wimbledon were finally prepared for play under the half deconstructed center court. However, if recent years are at all a measure of the style of play at Wimbledon, we’ll find similarly dusty, brown dirt with patches of clumped grass six feet shy of the baseline. Nonetheless, the circumstances will be far different, for this year, somewhere in that clumpy grass, Nadal will find himself rolled on his back in celebration of another victory on “the dirt.” Those who contest that Federer is still the sure-fire favorite as a five-time defending champion are vastly mistaken. Still a strong contender? Sure. But it all goes back exactly one year ago where we witnessed anything as close to a Federer meltdown as we will ever see. That day, presumably down and out, I saw Federer slink to his chair, cussing at a virtual replay, and perhaps for the first time, coming to grips with his inevitable demise. Through experience and a little luck, Federer delayed the rise to the top of Rafael Nadal on that warm London day. Though I do believe Roger will hit Pete’s magic number of 14, it will be another short-lived record. Why? Because in little more than five years, the now 22 year-old, soon to be five-time grand slam champion, will easily hold the illustrious “career slam,” and the undeniable achievement as the game’s greatest of all time. While I am a diehard Federer fan till the last day, all I can think about is the fear that wells up in Federer eyes as Nadal chases down ball after ball, on slower and slower surfaces.
The Prize:
Projected final: Nadal over Federer in four.
Blessed with an easy draw from every angle Nadal will arrive in the final fresher and hungrier than he ever has in the past. I cannot believe that he will let a third consecutive Wimbledon final slip away. And Federer? Well, he simply cannot pull a Nadal-esque French Open stint. Not in a millions years. The muscle-shirted Spaniard will quickly show the brilliance he exhibited at Roland Garros, and despite a frantic battle from Federer, his prized trophy will end up in his arch rivals’ hands.
The Choker
Biggest Upset: Ivo Karlovic over Djokovic in a quarterfinal dogfight
Those proud and obsessed tennis fans out there will fully understand this great upset. On paper, it looks to be just another typical match for the 3rd seed. But at a half inch over 6’10”, this Croat giant will catapult a gazillion first serves past a tight and nervous Novak Djokovic. Only Federer’s brand of now unorthodox and crafty tennis will get enough of the bullets back to squeeze out a tight 4 set victory.
The New Kid on the Block:
His finish: Jeremy Chardy goes deep, but not as far as in’05.
This phenom, fresh off an impressive French Open as a wildcard feels confident on the grass (see Wimbledon Boys title in ’05). Perhaps my wildest prediction of all sends this youngster into a quarterfinal against second-week Wimbledon regular, Andy Roddick. I think Roddick is actually a pretty smart guy (his intelligence often used to taunt ill-informed journalists), and I doubt he will be careless enough to repeat his last Wimbledon quarterfinal against a Frenchman (see Richard Gasquet).
The Washouts:
Richard Gasquet: Duh? This guy has gone virtually nowhere but down since his glorious (and a little lucky) run to last years semi. His tournament? A weak loss to America’s Mardy Fish in round one.
Ernests Gulbis: Despite a great run at the French, Nadal will serve him up on a silver platter. End of story. No more Gulbis talk for a few months.
Marcos Baghdatis: Marred by a variety of physical ailments, this kind-hearted Cypriot will meekly roll over in the first round against Belgian shotmaker Steve Darcis.
Match to Catch:
Round 1: Ancic versus Llodra.
If TV stations are savvy enough to pick up on the potential of this match, we will witness grass court tennis at its finest in the twenty-first century. If Llodra is healthy (which he wasn’t as of a week ago), I’d pick him in five. But the beauty is that this victor will knock out newly grass-court-crowned Spaniard, David Ferrer, in the third round. If you get a chance, get on Wimbledon.org, click on “match stats,” and then “number of net approaches.” You’ll be pleasantly surprised.
And goodbye:
To David Nalbandian in the first round. He’ll be the biggest upset in the first few days. His 1 and 0 drubbing against Djokovic at Queens took the last bit of wind out of this ever-injured Argentine’s sail. He’ll fall to aggressive Canadian, Frank Dancevic, in the first round.
French Connection?
The strong showing of Frenchmen at Roland Garros was exciting and expected (they normally hold the majority of places in the top 100). But it will not be the case at this event. Jeremy Chardy will be the lone Francophone in the second week.
As the red dust of court Philippe Chatrier settled from a two week long beating at the hands of Rafael Nadal, the luscious and green lawns of Wimbledon were finally prepared for play under the half deconstructed center court. However, if recent years are at all a measure of the style of play at Wimbledon, we’ll find similarly dusty, brown dirt with patches of clumped grass six feet shy of the baseline. Nonetheless, the circumstances will be far different, for this year, somewhere in that clumpy grass, Nadal will find himself rolled on his back in celebration of another victory on “the dirt.” Those who contest that Federer is still the sure-fire favorite as a five-time defending champion are vastly mistaken. Still a strong contender? Sure. But it all goes back exactly one year ago where we witnessed anything as close to a Federer meltdown as we will ever see. That day, presumably down and out, I saw Federer slink to his chair, cussing at a virtual replay, and perhaps for the first time, coming to grips with his inevitable demise. Through experience and a little luck, Federer delayed the rise to the top of Rafael Nadal on that warm London day. Though I do believe Roger will hit Pete’s magic number of 14, it will be another short-lived record. Why? Because in little more than five years, the now 22 year-old, soon to be five-time grand slam champion, will easily hold the illustrious “career slam,” and the undeniable achievement as the game’s greatest of all time. While I am a diehard Federer fan till the last day, all I can think about is the fear that wells up in Federer eyes as Nadal chases down ball after ball, on slower and slower surfaces.
The Prize:
Projected final: Nadal over Federer in four.
Blessed with an easy draw from every angle Nadal will arrive in the final fresher and hungrier than he ever has in the past. I cannot believe that he will let a third consecutive Wimbledon final slip away. And Federer? Well, he simply cannot pull a Nadal-esque French Open stint. Not in a millions years. The muscle-shirted Spaniard will quickly show the brilliance he exhibited at Roland Garros, and despite a frantic battle from Federer, his prized trophy will end up in his arch rivals’ hands.
The Choker
Biggest Upset: Ivo Karlovic over Djokovic in a quarterfinal dogfight
Those proud and obsessed tennis fans out there will fully understand this great upset. On paper, it looks to be just another typical match for the 3rd seed. But at a half inch over 6’10”, this Croat giant will catapult a gazillion first serves past a tight and nervous Novak Djokovic. Only Federer’s brand of now unorthodox and crafty tennis will get enough of the bullets back to squeeze out a tight 4 set victory.
The New Kid on the Block:
His finish: Jeremy Chardy goes deep, but not as far as in’05.
This phenom, fresh off an impressive French Open as a wildcard feels confident on the grass (see Wimbledon Boys title in ’05). Perhaps my wildest prediction of all sends this youngster into a quarterfinal against second-week Wimbledon regular, Andy Roddick. I think Roddick is actually a pretty smart guy (his intelligence often used to taunt ill-informed journalists), and I doubt he will be careless enough to repeat his last Wimbledon quarterfinal against a Frenchman (see Richard Gasquet).
The Washouts:
Richard Gasquet: Duh? This guy has gone virtually nowhere but down since his glorious (and a little lucky) run to last years semi. His tournament? A weak loss to America’s Mardy Fish in round one.
Ernests Gulbis: Despite a great run at the French, Nadal will serve him up on a silver platter. End of story. No more Gulbis talk for a few months.
Marcos Baghdatis: Marred by a variety of physical ailments, this kind-hearted Cypriot will meekly roll over in the first round against Belgian shotmaker Steve Darcis.
Match to Catch:
Round 1: Ancic versus Llodra.
If TV stations are savvy enough to pick up on the potential of this match, we will witness grass court tennis at its finest in the twenty-first century. If Llodra is healthy (which he wasn’t as of a week ago), I’d pick him in five. But the beauty is that this victor will knock out newly grass-court-crowned Spaniard, David Ferrer, in the third round. If you get a chance, get on Wimbledon.org, click on “match stats,” and then “number of net approaches.” You’ll be pleasantly surprised.
And goodbye:
To David Nalbandian in the first round. He’ll be the biggest upset in the first few days. His 1 and 0 drubbing against Djokovic at Queens took the last bit of wind out of this ever-injured Argentine’s sail. He’ll fall to aggressive Canadian, Frank Dancevic, in the first round.
French Connection?
The strong showing of Frenchmen at Roland Garros was exciting and expected (they normally hold the majority of places in the top 100). But it will not be the case at this event. Jeremy Chardy will be the lone Francophone in the second week.
