Tennis Abstract's Major Elo forecasts: Wimbledon 2024 onwards!

[Rovesciarete]

Wanted to create a thread for all those predictions by the mighty algorithm. Hope to update it from time to time...

1) The surface specific Elo, in this case the gElo before Wimbledon, down to legend Sir Andy Murray

Rank​	Player​	Age​	Elo​	​	GrassRaw​	​	gElo​	​	Peak Age​	Peak Elo​
1​	Jannik Sinner​	22.8​	2264.3​	​	1835.6​	​	2050.0​	​	22.6​	2271.1​
2​	Novak Djokovic​	37.0​	2181.8​	​	1898.1​	​	2040.0​	​	28.8​	2470.3​
3​	Carlos Alcaraz​	21.1​	2178.1​	​	1866.0​	​	2022.0​	​	20.2​	2239.6​
4​	Daniil Medvedev​	28.3​	2105.2​	​	1719.2​	​	1912.2​	​	25.9​	2191.9​
9​	Hubert Hurkacz​	27.3​	2011.7​	​	1758.4​	​	1885.1​	​	27.3​	2016.0​
8​	Alex De Minaur​	25.3​	2021.7​	​	1723.3​	​	1872.5​	​	25.3​	2038.4​
5​	Alexander Zverev​	27.1​	2070.4​	​	1665.4​	​	1867.9​	​	24.7​	2161.7​
11​	Tommy Paul​	27.0​	1983.3​	​	1732.1​	​	1857.7​	​	27.0​	1983.3​
12​	Andrey Rublev​	26.6​	1980.5​	​	1713.7​	​	1847.1​	​	23.4​	2106.2​
6​	Grigor Dimitrov​	33.0​	2034.0​	​	1620.8​	​	1827.4​	​	23.2​	2090.6​
22​	Matteo Berrettini​	28.1​	1892.7​	​	1760.0​	​	1826.3​	​	26.2​	2072.6​
14​	Sebastian Korda​	23.9​	1929.3​	​	1714.0​	​	1821.7​	​	22.5​	2005.3​
15​	Jack Draper​	22.4​	1923.4​	​	1716.7​	​	1820.0​	​	22.4​	1938.4​
10​	Stefanos Tsitsipas​	25.8​	1999.1​	​	1626.5​	​	1812.8​	​	22.8​	2133.4​
29​	Alexander Bublik​	27.0​	1846.9​	​	1746.3​	​	1796.6​	​	26.7​	1881.1​
21​	Tallon Griekspoor​	27.9​	1893.9​	​	1685.4​	​	1789.7​	​	25.5​	1924.9​
13​	Taylor Fritz​	26.6​	1960.9​	​	1617.9​	​	1789.4​	​	25.4​	2041.3​
24​	Lorenzo Musetti​	22.2​	1862.5​	​	1678.4​	​	1770.4​	​	20.6​	1925.4​
20​	Felix Auger Aliassime​	23.8​	1896.7​	​	1639.1​	​	1767.9​	​	22.2​	2053.1​
30​	Marton Fucsovics​	32.2​	1841.6​	​	1693.3​	​	1767.4​	​	29.1​	1924.6​
19​	Jan Lennard Struff​	34.1​	1908.2​	​	1620.4​	​	1764.3​	​	34.1​	1910.2​
43​	Andy Murray​	37.0​	1797.0​	​	1722.9​	​	1760.0​	​	29.6​	2347.2​

 

[Rovesciarete]

2) The quarters of the Wimbledon 2024 men's draw forecast:

Sinner's half, all players with a larger than 0.0% of winning the title...

Player	​	R64​	R32​	R16​	QF​	SF​	F​	W​
(1)Jannik Sinner (ITA)	​	97.7%​	83.8%​	76.1%​	72.5%​	57.7%​	37.6%​	24.3%​
Matteo Berrettini (ITA)	​	60.4%​	10.8%​	7.2%​	5.7%​	2.6%​	0.8%​	0.2%​
(27)Tallon Griekspoor (NED)	​	72.8%​	60.5%​	11.2%​	8.2%​	3.3%​	0.9%​	0.2%​
(10)Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)	​	90.7%​	77.0%​	58.2%​	25.5%​	7.6%​	2.4%​	0.7%​
Jan Lennard Struff (GER)	​	73.9%​	50.6%​	15.4%​	7.8%​	1.8%​	0.4%​	0.1%​
(5)Daniil Medvedev (RUS)	​	96.5%​	91.7%​	73.7%​	54.2%​	22.0%​	9.6%​	4.1%​

Player	​	R64​	R32​	R16​	QF​	SF​	F​	W​
(3)Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)	​	98.8%​	95.4%​	88.3%​	80.5%​	67.0%​	39.1%​	23.6%​
Jordan Thompson (AUS)	​	69.4%​	43.8%​	25.3%​	4.1%​	1.7%​	0.3%​	0.1%​
(16)Ugo Humbert (FRA)	​	83.6%​	64.0%​	38.4%​	6.6%​	2.8%​	0.5%​	0.1%​
(12)Tommy Paul (USA)	​	93.9%​	85.2%​	58.9%​	45.5%​	15.2%​	5.0%​	1.7%​
(23)Alexander Bublik (KAZ)	​	85.1%​	67.5%​	31.2%​	21.5%​	5.5%​	1.4%​	0.4%​
(8)Casper Ruud (NOR)	​	84.8%​	54.3%​	32.2%​	11.1%​	2.0%​	0.3%​	0.1%​

 

[Rovesciarete]

Djokovic's half:

Player	​	R64​	R32​	R16​	QF​	SF​	F​	W​
(6)Andrey Rublev (RUS)	​	91.5%​	86.9%​	60.9%​	36.6%​	21.1%​	6.2%​	1.7%​
(25)Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)	​	88.6%​	73.8%​	32.1%​	15.1%​	6.8%​	1.4%​	0.2%​
(20)Sebastian Korda (USA)	​	80.8%​	69.1%​	41.7%​	22.1%​	11.8%​	3.1%​	0.7%​
(11)Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)	​	88.7%​	70.5%​	41.7%​	21.5%​	11.1%​	2.8%​	0.6%​
(13)Taylor Fritz (USA)	​	71.6%​	59.6%​	46.4%​	20.6%​	9.5%​	2.1%​	0.4%​
(28)Jack Draper (GBR)	​	94.1%​	70.1%​	35.2%​	24.4%​	12.5%​	3.3%​	0.8%​
(4)Alexander Zverev (GER)	​	90.8%​	73.9%​	47.9%​	36.3%​	21.6%​	7.0%​	2.1%​

Player	​	R64​	R32​	R16​	QF​	SF​	F​	W​
(7)Hubert Hurkacz (POL)	​	91.7%​	76.4%​	59.0%​	36.9%​	12.0%​	7.4%​	2.4%​
Andy Murray (GBR)	​	63.3%​	40.5%​	15.4%​	6.5%​	1.2%​	0.5%​	0.1%​
(17)Felix Auger Aliassime (CAN)	​	78.3%​	60.5%​	25.6%​	10.9%​	2.1%​	0.9%​	0.2%​
(9)Alex De Minaur (AUS)	​	84.9%​	76.6%​	58.4%​	34.8%​	10.7%​	6.3%​	1.9%​
(15)Holger Rune (DEN)	​	76.6%​	62.9%​	40.9%​	6.4%​	2.4%​	0.9%​	0.2%​
(2)Novak Djokovic (SRB)	​	98.8%​	95.5%​	92.5%​	85.3%​	68.5%​	56.8%​	32.6%​

Shows just how huge the impact of Alcaraz's landing was. Sinner truly with a terrible draw and by avoiding Alcaraz Djokovic has become the favourite if his knee holds up.

Overall those three guys are far away the most favoured to win the tournament, Alcaraz being as much as the rest of the field combined...

 

[travlerajm]

Interesting that the simulation has Djok also as the highest odds to reach the semis, injury and all.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Interesting that the simulation has Djok also as the highest odds to reach the semis, injury and all.

This forecast is injury-blind but he has certainly an easier run. A great lawn will help him a lot, his serve+ will be decisive. Every day more should help him to recover for the more tougher second week on older grass.

Halle helped to raise Sinners's win probability hugely - a full hundred Elo jump in raw Elo due to a 500 is very rare at this level.

 

[nolefam_2024]

There is so much similarity on atp tour and wta tours right now in terms of top 10 elo

 

[nolefam_2024]

Sinner is about to enter 2300+