Tennis & Coronavirus

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Goof

Professional
Local club here owned by local university (that is shut down for coronavirus) is adamant that a big tourney this weekend will still go on as planned. It's all about the $$$ for them.
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.

Interesting read
That is a very thorough analysis and well illustrated.


Reason to slow down the rate of infections.

1*PZesaMfoPxgYJBoQVtpmjQ.gif
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
if I gave you the article, you won't understand it. it is for physicians. but here is layman's view, that layman can understand


That Youtube was very informative on Zinc and its effects on viruses. Dr Seheult's Youtubes on Covid 19 are very informative, clear, well illustrated, with references. Thanks for posting.

The Youtube How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome is very disturbing and indicates the critical need for ventilator machines.
Note this in the video -
"To Clarify: viruses such as 2019 novel coronavirus, SARS and influenza do cause pneumonia (and not ARDS) in some patients. "
 
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Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
That Youtube was very informative on Zinc and its effects on viruses. Dr Seheult's Youtubes on Covid 19 are very informative, clear, well illustrated, with references. Thanks for posting.

The Youtube How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome is very disturbing and indicates the critical need for ventilator machines.
Note this in the video -
"To Clarify: viruses such as 2019 novel coronavirus, SARS and influenza do cause pneumonia (and not ARDS) in some patients. "
so does that mean I should inject myselfwith corona ?
 

user92626

G.O.A.T.
That's to me? Read what I wrote. I'm saying its very dangerous, that being scared is NOT overreacting. You proving my other point: people don't read.

I was being sarcastic.
I see. Sorry.

It's very hard to read "negating" responses in texts. Your statement could be read both ways, especially "Right" as in affirming the other guy's, as opposed to "yeah right" :)


"Right. Let's revisit this after a couple months and see how much people are overreacting."




In a couple months either this thing could become the deadliest pandemic in human history or no deadlier than now or somewhere in between, depending on researchers' findings and how people handle it.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
I see. Sorry.

It's very hard to read "negating" responses in texts. Your statement could be read both ways, especially "Right" as in affirming the other guy's, as opposed to "yeah right" :)


"Right. Let's revisit this after a couple months and see how much people are overreacting."




In a couple months either this thing could become the deadliest pandemic in human history or no deadlier than now or somewhere in between, depending on researchers' findings and how people handle it.
Exactly. I'm in the middle, because we have in between fear and stupidity!
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
You should elaborate. What do you mean by "I'm in the middle, because we have in between fear and stupidity!"
I was busy. You have the stupid people who say it's nothing, just carry on, shake hands, go to large groups, take cruises, fly everywhere just for pleasure trips. One of those stupid people is leading the country.

The other extreme is to be paralyzed by fear and stop living. You have to navigate in between.

My anger has been at the slow rate at which people here have gotten smart. I stopped going anywhere in groups at least a week ago. It was not fear. It was common sense. There is one group I normally go to every week. I asked my wife how she felt. She said if it were her she would not go. So I made my decision based on her and my family. I'm still teaching, but I work one on one and only see maybe 5-7 people per day. If necessary I will shut this down too, but I hope it will not be necessary.

If I were wealthy, I'd just stay home until this is all over, which is what the very rich are doing. The rest of us can't afford not to work.
 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
so does that mean I should inject myselfwith corona ?

You would do what a Dr says after the treatment had been found and tested. You would consider it after there were a large number of infections and your infection is very likely to occur .......desperation and fear of dying.

I have no medical training but there are people that can consider causing an infection on a selected body part and see if it has any feasibility. If I had a choice of where I would be infected, the last body part I'd choose would be my lung. Imagine if 5,000,000 people were infected and the medical services were overwhelmed. Maybe an initial arm infection would have a better outcome than an initial lung infection?
 
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user92626

G.O.A.T.
I was busy. You have the stupid people who say it's nothing, just carry on, shake hands, to to large groups, take cruises, fly everywhere just for pleasure trips. One of those stupid people is leading the country.

The other extreme is to be paralyzed by fear and stop living. You have to navigate in between.

My anger has been at the slow rate at which people here have gotten smart. I stopped going anywhere in groups at least a week ago. It was not fear. It was common sense. There is one group I normally go to every week. I asked my wife how she felt. She said if it were her she would not go. So I made my decision based on her and my family. I'm still teaching, but I work one on one and only see maybe 5-7 people per day. If necessary I will shut this down too, but I hope it will not be necessary.

If I were wealthy, I'd just just home until this is all over, which is what the very rich are doing. The rest of us can't afford not to work.
Good common sense and approach. I'm with you. I certainly agree with you about the stupid extreme end that's making light of the situation. It's stupid and suicidal. And it's freaking suspicious about their agenda, coming from their position. Meaning, they have benefits to gain from pushing this view.

However, to be frank I am not seeing the other stupid end which is paralyzed and stop living. You're not talking about someone jumping off building in Korea in hopelessness, are you?

If anything, common people are very opposite of being paralyzed -- they are very active in stocking up the essentials which couldn't be more about embracing life and surviving this crisis.
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Donald McNeil describes the Chinese Government's measures to control the spread of Covid 19.

"You don't want infected people going home to their familias, they'll just give it to them."

How does limiting meetings to 250 people compare?
 
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Happi

Hall of Fame
Donald McNeil describes the Chinese Government's measures to control the spread of Covid 19.

"You don't want infected people going home to their familias, they'll just give it to them."

How does limiting meetings to 250 people compare?

Thanks for posting this video, I am not sure these methods could work in a democracy.
 

heninfan99

Talk Tennis Guru
Everyone wants to give their hot takes with subtle political undertones to score points. It's in bad taste.

Let the shut downs continue and the experts do their work.
 

Happi

Hall of Fame
Everyone wants to give their hot takes with subtle political undertones to score points. It's in bad taste.

It is crucial how Government's in different countries deal with this world wide pandemic. So it is highly political charged, and worth every discussion. I don't see a discussion on this topic as "bad taste"
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
It is crucial how Government's in different countries deal with this world wide pandemic. So it is highly political charged, and worth every discussion. I don't see a discussion on this topic as "bad taste"
It' hard to navigate a safe course between paranoia and denial.
 
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heninfan99

Talk Tennis Guru
It is crucial how Government's in different countries deal with this world wide pandemic. So it is highly political charged, and worth every discussion. I don't see a discussion on this topic as "bad taste"
You're talking about thoughtful discussions, I presume, not hot takes.
 

onehandbh

G.O.A.T.
Good news for the U.S.

The U.S. government has been slow to take action and very minimal action to control Covid-19, are quite far behind in having enough test kits ready, but...

Chinese Billionaire Jack Ma has just donated 500,000 test kits and 1,000,000 masks to the U.S.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
South Korea isn’t run by Trump, either, but they have had much more trouble containing it.

Taiwan’s early action seems to have made a difference. A lot of Chinese usually travel to Taiwan and vice versa.
If 71 deaths in a country of 51.5 million is "trouble," what do you call the situation in Italy now?
 

vex

Legend
I was busy. You have the stupid people who say it's nothing, just carry on, shake hands, go to large groups, take cruises, fly everywhere just for pleasure trips. One of those stupid people is leading the country.

The other extreme is to be paralyzed by fear and stop living. You have to navigate in between.

My anger has been at the slow rate at which people here have gotten smart. I stopped going anywhere in groups at least a week ago. It was not fear. It was common sense. There is one group I normally go to every week. I asked my wife how she felt. She said if it were her she would not go. So I made my decision based on her and my family. I'm still teaching, but I work one on one and only see maybe 5-7 people per day. If necessary I will shut this down too, but I hope it will not be necessary.

If I were wealthy, I'd just stay home until this is all over, which is what the very rich are doing. The rest of us can't afford not to work.
You could not have nailed it any better.
 

vex

Legend
hot takes with subtle political undertones
What do you want people to say? That they're excited that we're facing a dangerous disease that has paralyzed society while a guy who can't read is our leader and our #2 guy thinks science isn't real? America has basically been like a drunk driver behind the wheel of a tank for the last 3 years and this is the biggest event we've faced.
 

BevelDevil

Hall of Fame
How would you compare the infection risk of playing a set of tennis against a new partner vs. buying something at the grocery store?

Put in a mathematical expression, assuming each set of tennis were against a different partner, and included a greeting and a warmup, suppose we have this equation:

Groceries = K*Sets, where K is some multiple.

What would you put K at? 0.5? 2?
 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
A discussion with virus researcher, Dr David Ho. The full segment was longer, presented much more information and I hope to find it.

This link has the full? interview. He discusses the exponential growth of virus infections at the beginning of infections and that NY appears to be on a similar curve to Italy.
 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
How would you compare the infection risk of playing a set of tennis against a new partner vs. buying something at the grocery store?

Put in a mathematical expression, assuming each set of tennis were against a different partner, and included a greeting and a warmup, suppose we have this equation:

Groceries = K*Sets, where K is some multiple.

What would you put K at? 0.5? 2?

I don't know how to do an analysis. There are many considerations that are unknown.

Issues that may be important.
1) Probability of virus initially entering the body air borne in lungs.
2) Probability of virus initially entering body through hand.
3) Does the sun kill Covid 19 virus that is airborne?
4) Does the court temperature kill Covid 19?
5) The number of people per cubic meter at the tennis courts.
6) The number of people per cubic meter in the food store.
7) The ventillation of the supermarket and amount of make up air. Any effective filtering?
8) Does the congestion at the checkout, the food conveyer belt, and the cashier make checkout the highest probability of catching the virus in a food store?
9) and so on

There are a lot of questions and most answers are not known. In view of the answers I hear on TV, you should verify all information before accepting it to any degree.

Needs a competent analyis by a knowledgeable researcher, not this.......

One principle is to consider the "exposure" for air borne virus particles. There is a density of virus in the air, Covid 19 bare or in droplets per cubic meter. This is probably a mixture of virus in water droplets of various sizes and possibly bare virus alone?? "Exposure" is time multiplied by the density of infected particles in the air (consider size and whether in droplets). Risk often goes with exposure - know the time & know the density of infecting particles. There is a probability of infected people being present at the courts or food store and emitting virus is some form. The number of infected people will greatly change in the days and weeks ahead, so the risk will change rapidly. There are many considerations for viruses in the air including that small particles, if present and viable, can float in the air for hours or days and also accumulate in buildings without ventillation. There are posts in this thread on airborne virus, start with - F. Wells publication. In scientific publications, first read Abstract, Introduction and Conclusions .

Another principle is that there are virus particles on surfaces. Some come from virus in water droplets from coughs or speaking that land on surfaces in front of infected people. Outdoors in wind the range of falling virus/water droplets will increase with wind speed.

Another simplifying principle is to identify and consider the worst threats first.

In earlier posts, information indicated that virus is often exhaled in water droplets that evaporate to varying degrees and also may drop to surfaces such as the food store checkout conveyor belt. Each checkout handles a large number of people in a day. People often talk with the cashier, so droplets would be present on the conveyor belt. The cashier will put their hands on the groceries........... As the weeks go by, the percentage of the population that is infected and in crowds goes up and the virus emitted will increase. Cleaning the conveyor belt with disinfectant frequently would seem a necessity or maybe the native bacteria destroy viruses? Too complex..... How shall I discuss that with the food store manager........?

Any enclosure like a foodstore will accumulate very small airborne particles and they will remain suspended in the air for hours or days. See my PurpleAir observations. Does the ventillation system remove them? Where are they released to the outdoor air?

How long does virus live in the air, on surfaces, in sunlight, on your clothes, in your hair?

On the courts, it seems much less risky because its not in a building and the sun would kill viruses to some unknown degree.

The effect of everyone wearing masks would greatly reduce the rate of spreading. Everything that works to some degree should be used.

I'm looking at the demonstrated Chinese approach for what makes sense for reducing the spread of the virus. There is also widespread use of masks in China.

On the tennis courts, I'm going to take a bucket of balls, hand feed and practice backhands on an outside court with wind blowing in from the outside. With 16 infections confirmed in my county now, I may play doubles. As infections increase, the probability of finding infected people and virus will increase. ??

I have played wearing a mask once on a dry, dusty clay court. I was so angry about the court maintenance for a league match that I played the match without thinking that much about the mask, it was tolerable with my asthma. Try wearing a mask for doubles to see how it works.
 
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Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
That is a very thorough analysis and well illustrated.


Reason to slow down the rate of infections.

1*PZesaMfoPxgYJBoQVtpmjQ.gif

I don't like this.. this means virus will last longer. I want the virus to end ASAP so we can play tennis again and ATP resumes. Let it burn thru as fast as possible,, infect everyone and sort things out. and let TENNIS begin again...……….:cool::cool:(y)
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
I don't like this.. this means virus will last longer. I want the virus to end ASAP so we can play tennis again and ATP resumes. Let it burn thru as fast as possible,, infect everyone and sort things out. and let TENNIS begin again...……….:cool::cool:(y)

The shortest senario is that we copy the Chinese approach starting now. Post #166. That would get you back to tennis the fastest.

Dr Ho discussed virus drugs and their time frame. Post #179. The Zinc treatment was not mentioned but there are advocates so I hope it is being considered.

The description that 80% of Covid 19 cases are "mild " and the usual meaning of the word "mild" may paint a rosey picture that is easy as a frequent talking point. But recently, Sanjay Gupta has been mentioning some lung scarring involving the 'mild' cases. The word 'scarring' sounds permanent. ? That could be very serious for a percentage of the 7.5 billion people that 'recover'.

We should all research what the word "mild" really means for Covid 19. Please post what you find.
 
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user92626

G.O.A.T.
How would you compare the infection risk of playing a set of tennis against a new partner vs. buying something at the grocery store?

Put in a mathematical expression, assuming each set of tennis were against a different partner, and included a greeting and a warmup, suppose we have this equation:

Groceries = K*Sets, where K is some multiple.

What would you put K at? 0.5? 2?
Very interesting question, angle!

All in all, I would put, in your scenario, playing tennis is much more riskier. Players dispense sweat and other bodily fluids and if they carry, it's like 99% chance you'll get infected from all that closeness and extensive "hanging around".

I figure grocery shopping is a lot safer, and it's not like we have a choice. You CAN keep a distance from others, and you can wash hands and clean up when you get home. The virus can get on the stuff's surfaces but without a proper hosting environment it will die.
 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
I am interested in whether if I initially get a Covid 19 infection on my arm whether it then infects my entire body and how long that takes? In other words, can the virus infect at one location and then also seek out the lungs and then infect them? Or are lung infections usually the site of the initial infection? Please hold the opinions and present some evidence and links.

I found this informative general reference on humans and viruses. Complex.

The human microbiome. Other cells of the human body outnumber the human cells.

The likely locations of certain bacteria living on specific areas of your skin.
800px-Skin_Microbiome20169-300.jpg
 
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user92626

G.O.A.T.
I am interested in whether if I initially get a Covid 19 infection on my arm whether it then infects my entire body and how long that takes? In other words, can the virus infect at one location and then also seek out the lungs and then infect them? Or are lung infections usually the site of the initial infection? Please hold the opinions and present some evidence and links.
From what I read humans currently don't have the immunity to stop the virus. Even reasonably healthy bodies, younger people, can be infected and go through recovery. Because there's no immunity the virus can survive, travel and spread in a good host.

What do you mean by "lung infections usually the site of the initial infection"? Lungs aren't directly exposed in any cases. Mouths, eyes, noses are, where the virus first infects. However, lungs are where the virus does the most damage.
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
...................
What do you mean by "lung infections usually the site of the initial infection"? Lungs aren't directly exposed in any cases. Mouths, eyes, noses are, where the virus first infects. However, lungs are where the virus does the most damage.

Do you have references specific about the location of the initial location of the infection?

It is well known that particles that are very small move with the air deeply into the lungs. This is a very important point that you need the correct information for.

Bare Covid 19 virus is about 0.1 um in diameter, Virus in Water Droplets are variable in size and evaporate considerably in flight. References were supplied in earlier posts. See F. Wells 1934 publication.

For more references Search: Respirable Particles

1743-8977-10-12-1.jpg


This is the reason that the EPA assigns particles 2.5 um diameter and smaller as especially dangerous, they penetrate deeply into the lungs.

"PM2. 5 refers to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) that have a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers, which is about 3% the diameter of a human hair."

The smaller particles may be worse but measuring and filtering particles smaller than 2.5 um starts to get difficult for low cost equipment. My PurpleAir sensor measures down to 0.3 um.
 
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vex

Legend
How would you compare the infection risk of playing a set of tennis against a new partner vs. buying something at the grocery store?

Put in a mathematical expression, assuming each set of tennis were against a different partner, and included a greeting and a warmup, suppose we have this equation:

Groceries = K*Sets, where K is some multiple.

What would you put K at? 0.5? 2?
At the moment? Probably fairly low for both. Again, its just a numbers game. If everyone just kept doing all activities like normal for hte next week the risk would dramatically escalate for both. Going to the grocery store is more risky atm b/c you have significantly greater exposure numbers.
 

vex

Legend
I don't like this.. this means virus will last longer. I want the virus to end ASAP so we can play tennis again and ATP resumes. Let it burn thru as fast as possible,, infect everyone and sort things out. and let TENNIS begin again...……….:cool::cool:(y)
So basically what you're saying is lets overwelm the health care system in a short time period which would dramatically escalate the number of deaths, particularly those over age 60 so I can get back to tennis faster? You know there is a finite number of ventilators right? And if it all hits at once the fatility rate grows exponentially? You rec tennis is worth a holocaust I guess lol.
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.

Reference in the video -

How long does the virus last once emitted by an infected person?

This is a preprint of an article that is not yet published, see link. This may not be the final conclusion.
"Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 are plausible, as the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days. "

Thanks to these researchers-

Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1
Neeltje van Doremalen, Trenton Bushmaker, Dylan Morris, Myndi Holbrook, Amandine Gamble, Brandi Williamson, Azaibi Tamin, Jennifer Harcourt, Natalie Thornburg, Susan Gerber, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, Emmie de Wit, Vincent Munster
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

I downloaded the pdf and it mentions a few surfaces and aerosol times. It has figures.

The viability of the virus after emission under various circumstances is a very important piece of information.
 
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user92626

G.O.A.T.
Do you have references specific about the location of the initial location of the infection?
Watch, point 32:00 in, the blonde lady describe the nose as the location where the virus can infect and replicate, and transmit. Its also a reliable place to take specimen for testing.

I guess When it gets to the lungs it's too far along and you'll be likely in the hospital.

 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Watch, point 32:00 in, the blonde lady describe the nose as the location where the virus can infect and replicate, and transmit. Its also a reliable place to take specimen for testing.

I guess When it gets to the lungs it's too far along and you'll be likely in the hospital.


Particles get deep into the lungs for each breath. We are talking about how the first infections occurs.

"Mild" cases of Covid 19 infection include pnemonia.

I proved to you that your statement "Lungs aren't directly exposed in any cases." is not correct and is a dangerous misunderstanding to use for any decisions.

I'm no longer accepting statements that involve science from press conferences without back up from other sources.

Her statement at 33:11 in the video was about virus replicating in the nose and was in reference to testing. The swab collects virus in the nose. She said nothing about where the virus first took hold but I can see your interpreting her comment as it started in the nose.
 
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FiReFTW

Legend
In my country/town they are shutting down everything, stores, restaurants, bars, barber shops, sports stuff, concerts, everything... everything apart from emergency food stores and medical and fireworkers and police.
 

Happi

Hall of Fame
In my country/town they are shutting down everything, stores, restaurants, bars, barber shops, sports stuff, concerts, everything... everything apart from emergency food stores and medical and fireworkers and police.

For how long ? Did they give a time estimate ?
 

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
In my country/town they are shutting down everything, stores, restaurants, bars, barber shops, sports stuff, concerts, everything... everything apart from emergency food stores and medical and fireworkers and police.

Are they shutting down factories where people work?

How will people make any money?
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
I just heard Dr Larry Brilliant discuss viruses and he mentioned the answers to two of my questions. (Mar 15, 2020 CNN TV broadcast, I quoted when possible)

1) How is the virus mostly transmitted?
Larry Brilliant said-
Q1) "This is a droplet borne outbreak and 99% or something like that of all people that do get it will get it that way."
Q1) Not quote - 'Droplets are more than 5um in diameter .....be 6 feet away.' [The 3 foot advice would be wrong, not as effective as 6 feet. Winds?]
(I would think that the droplets have a size distribution. Need more information here.)

2) Does the virus get into the blood stream?
Q2) "This virus was originally blood borne, we believe that it went from a bat to an intermediate animal, probably in the blood borne route. That is certainly what happened with SARS, we think probably with MERS. Then the animal transmitted it to humans probably by being eaten.

not quote - '...the virus also is found in feces.'

It sounds as if the virus can be everywhere in the body and can spread in the blood stream. The initial location of the infection, lungs? or other? is not spelled out. The answer to this question is important for preventing infection, mask use, cleaning surfaces, and many other issues.

not quote - 'fomite transmission less likely' [Fomite - means transmitted by objects]

not quote - The ZEKA virus was mostly transmitted by mosquittos. Late in the ZEKA outbreak it was found that the ZEKA virus could also be transmitted by sex.

All the above points need to be checked and references found. Please post if you find.

If anyone finds more reference material from Dr Larry Brilliant on virus issues, please post.
 
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user92626

G.O.A.T.
@Chas Tennis

You keep mentioning "initial location of the infection" as if it's something really significant.

What does your phrase mean? Like what part of the body the virus first invade?

I already gave you..it's the facial orifices, namely the nose, the mouth. The eyes are less critical.

Don't worry about the virus traveling up your pants and enter your body that way.

Protect your nose, mouth well and your lungs will be fine.
 

user92626

G.O.A.T.
The one piece of info that i haven't gotten clear on is... for a patient who is recovered, can he go back into society and mingle with others like he's never been infected? Or, he has to be quarantined indefinitely.
 
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