Tennis desperately needs Alcaraz/Rune/Sinner to beat Djokodal

[Rosstour]

I generally value surplus strategic/tactical smarts over surplus physicality. Nadal was plenty physical in 2019.

Nadal also just performed better in 2019. He won 55.97% of his points (1.44 dominance ratio) compared to 54.98% (1.35) in 2008. I believe it was harder to win tennis matches in 2019 than in 2008 because the overall level was higher, so that Nadal was statistically better in 2019 before adjusting for that difference in level is fairly convincing to me.

I don't think 2008Dal goes down in straights to any version of Djokovic at AO

Lost to Foggo, Stef, Thiem in clay Finals leading up to RG

Lost to 37y10mo Fed at Wimbledon

Not sure man

 

[daggerman]

I don't think 2008Dal goes down in straights to any version of Djokovic at AO

Lost to Foggo, Stef, Thiem in clay Finals leading up to RG

Lost to 37y10mo Fed at Wimbledon

Not sure man

I mean, Nadal won 7 total games (and 0 sets) against Tsonga at the Australian Open in 2008. Clearly Novak's good enough to beat that Nadal in straight sets.

But yeah, he didn't go undefeated in 2019. He lost 11 matches in 2008, as well. I'm not really sure what you're getting at. I think Tsitsipas and Thiem were better players than anybody he could've faced in 2008, and Fognini is a generally bad matchup with his ability to take the ball early and hit penetrating shots from both wings. Federer at 37y10mo was still one of the 3 best players in the world. Doesn't really matter what his biological age was. Statistically he was about as good as ever.

 

[President]

Why? You tell me why 2008 was better. On a "technical level," while we're at it. You're the one who bothered me lol.

Much better footwork over the course of a match, aided by greater physicality. He hit with more topspin, particularly on his forehand, and built points better in 2008 as a result. His return of serve was better then, he still stood far back but not to such a ridiculous degree, probably because his reflexes and first step declined in his 30s.

 

[Rosstour]

I mean, Nadal won 7 total games (and 0 sets) against Tsonga at the Australian Open in 2008. Clearly Novak's good enough to beat that Nadal in straight sets.

But yeah, he didn't go undefeated in 2019. He lost 11 matches in 2008, as well. I'm not really sure what you're getting at. I think Tsitsipas and Thiem were better players than anybody he could've faced in 2008, and Fognini is a generally bad matchup with his ability to take the ball early and hit penetrating shots from both wings. Federer at 37y10mo was still one of the 3 best players in the world. Doesn't really matter what his biological age was. Statistically he was about as good as ever.

Well, if Fed was as good as ever...2008dal went 2-0 against him at Slams, and 2019dal went 0-1

Given that the conventional wisdom dictates that Federer is completely inferior to Nadal...clearly Nadal's level had dipped considerably to go below Fed's even when Fed was old.

 

[daggerman]

Well, if Fed was as good as ever...2008dal went 2-0 against him at Slams, and 2019dal went 0-1

Given that the conventional wisdom dictates that Federer is completely inferior to Nadal...clearly Nadal's level had dipped considerably to go below Fed's even when Fed was old.

I mean...two equal players being 2-1 in a 3-match series is a reasonable outcome? Why would it necessarily have to be 3-0?

And actually, you missed a match. Nadal beat Roger at Roland Garros in 2019. So it's 3-1 over those two years.

 

[DSH]

Sinner will be a big threat at USO and SW19, and Alcaraz ( of healthy) may upset Djokovic at FO. However none of the will beat Rafa at RG cause it is next to impossible. Only single player to ever beat healthy Rafa was Söderling

Jannik will take down the true sinner of Wimbledon.

 

[daggerman]

Much better footwork over the course of a match, aided by greater physicality. He hit with more topspin, particularly on his forehand, and built points better in 2008 as a result. His return of serve was better then, he still stood far back but not to such a ridiculous degree, probably because his reflexes and first step declined in his 30s.

That's the thing. You say "he hit with more topspin, and build points better as a result," but I can counter by saying "he hit with less depth, and built points worse as a result." It's not really technical analysis. It's just fitting words around a conclusion you're unwilling to seriously interrogate.

And despite the years and years of footwork drills between 2008 and 2019, his footwork got worse? That doesn't make much sense to me. You could say his quickness allowed him to run around more backhands more frequently, but he also needed to run his backhand more frequently because it wasn't as good a shot as it would become.

EDIT: By the way, I think it's perfectly fine to be unwilling to interrogate that conclusion. I'm not suggesting I see the game with more clarity than you do. It could very well be the opposite. I don't really have good ways to confirm that I see the game well. I'm just sharing my opinion!

 

[Federev]

Agree.
Djokodal must be stopped.
Someone should protect the goatness of Roger Federer.

Alas, Federer’s goatness is gone forever.

Nothing can ever make up for the glory of the Berritnni Open.

Once Novak won that, the question was settled for eternity.

 

[GregN]

Sampras and Agassi weren't winning anymore slams with Fed in the way anyway.

Things were different back then, it was generally accepted that once you hit your thirties your best sporting days were gone. If Nadal, Fed and Nole had all retired when they reached thirty we wouldn't be having these conversations.

 

[vex]

In terms of objective level of play, I think both Rune and Alcaraz are ahead of Nadal and Djokovic at 19. Of course, discussions of "objective level of play" are rather subjective, but from what I've seen, they have more complete games than their predecessors at the same age: better transition games, better hands, more potent and precise groundstrokes, better serves, more tactical clarity, etc. It's almost as if they've benefited from growing up watching the Big 3.

We'll see how their games come along, though. I think Rune in particular has a decent chance to reach a higher level than Novak and Rafa. Alcaraz I'm less bullish on long-term (because I do agree he's probably a little too short).

If any of them have a chance it would be Rune but I dunno, he just hasn’t WOW’d me yet.

 

[chjtennis]

Forget bout beating Djokodal. It's already too late. 2 generations failed to produce GOAT level players which contributed to insane achievements of Big 3 from 2013 - one includes Dimitrov, Nishikori, Cilic, Thiem, Raonic, etc., the second includes Meddy, Rublev, Tsitsipas, Zverev, etc.. The next generation that includes Alcaraz, Sinner, Rune, Shelton, etc. looks much more promising, but no matter what they do, how many times they beat Djokodal, it won't be them who will have beaten Djokodal. It will be father time.

 

[mike danny]

Things were different back then, it was generally accepted that once you hit your thirties your best sporting days were gone. If Nadal, Fed and Nole had all retired when they reached thirty we wouldn't be having these conversations.

You or someone said they would've won more slams if they had kept playing for more. They wouldn't have.

Agassi's best sporting days certainly weren't gone once he hit 30. The complete opposite.

 

[mike danny]

They are good. But not THAT good to deny Slam wins to next ATG till they become 35-36. Nadal and Djokovic were beating Federer during his peak/prime years. If there had come a new ATG in say 2014 - I have no doubt he would find the way to win Slams beating Big 3 even back then. He would definitely dominate 35 yo dinosaurs and send them to retirement for sure. Two generations were terrible that helped Big 3 to inflate their numbers..

Heck, it didn't even take ATG talents to beat them in slams when they were younger. Murray, Stan, Safin and Delpo all won slams against the younger Big 3 so we have proof that they're not too good.

 

[ChaelAZ]

I've said enough times I am done with the Fedal era and the Djo hold out now. Nadal can reitre, Djo can grab a few more to feel important and vindicated, but we need players like Alcz, Rune, and Sinner to get a little more excitement in matches.