Tennis Insights: Sinner has the best return, forehand and backhand quality!

[Rovesciarete]

Forgot to mention that he has also the highest conversion score . No surprise that he has been the best player of 2024 despite the odds, truly impressive.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Forgot to mention that he has also the highest conversion score . No surprise that he has been the best player of 2024 despite the odds, truly impressive.

A giant Andre Agassi we could say

 

[Rovesciarete]

A giant Andre Agassi we could say

They share some tennis characteristics but their growth curves are quite different and Sinner is indeed much taller. I always enjoy Jeff Sackmann’s writing::

The two personas barely share a resemblance. It’s impossible to review Agassi’s career without marveling at his constant reinvention. In two decades, he went from teen idol to teen burnout, savior of American tennis to wasted talent, tennis-hater to comeback kid, jokester to elder statesman.

His game was less schizophrenic, but it changed plenty as well. He arrived on tour with a forehand that could split a two-by-four, one that had to be that good to hide his backhand. In time, his pinpoint backhand became the signature weapon. The mindless slugging of his early days gave way to tactical prowess of the Brad Gilbert school. He traded a fast-food diet and a casual approach to training for the teachings of strength coach Gil Reyes. He was the fittest man on the circuit after most of his peers had retired.

Fitness was an issue for Andre but compared to Janni mostly due to a lack of trying. However hand-eye coordination, ability to take the ball so well so early, elite groundstroke quality and an initially more limited all-court game are shared similarties.

Jimmy Arias, himself known for a howitzer of a forehand, said, “Andre hits the ball harder than anyone else by far.”

His ability to take the ball on the rise was even more astonishing. One fellow player called his hand-eye coordination “disgusting.”

One of the earliest objections to the flashy youngster was also the most time-worn. He was a bruising baseliner who gave only the flimsiest lip service to an all-court game. Ion Țiriac, then coaching Boris Becker, said of the American, “If a player hits as hard as he can all the time, matches will turn into shooting contests and the beauty of the game will disappear. His is a limited game that has nothing to do with finesse.”

“Agassi could revolutionize the game,” said Țiriac. “But I hope he doesn’t.”

 

[nolefam_2024]

They share some tennis characteristics but their growth curves are quite different and Sinner is indeed much taller. I always enjoy Jeff Sackmann’s writing::



Fitness was an issue for Andre but compared to Janni mostly due to a lack of trying. However hand-eye coordination, ability to take the ball so well so early, elite groundstroke quality and an initially more limited all-court game are shared similarties.

They don't share some characteristics, to me they share almost all.

Both have very little variety for one. Don't let the old nostalgic gen fool you. Both barely if ever come to net or play slices (why slice if you never come to net).

Only difference to me is Sonic is super fast and Andre was fast but not like him. Even the height is no issue to me. Sonic serve isn't great for his height at all.

 

[Rovesciarete]

They don't share some characteristics, to me they share almost all.

Both have very little variety for one.

Not much serve&volley from Andre. He certainly pushed the evolution of the modern baseline game.

Sonic serve isn't great for his height at all.

Yes, his big follow-up makes the difference! Serve will still improve, kid has always enjoyed working hard and has that inner passion.

Thankfully he doesn‘t pay with a focus on money like some of the lost talent coming out of Australia.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Not much serve&volley from Andre. He certainly pushed the evolution of the modern baseline game.



Yes, his big follow-up makes the difference! Serve will still improve, kid has always enjoyed working hard and has that inner passion.

Thankfully he doesn‘t pay with a focus on money like some of the lost talent coming out of Australia.

Exactly and our US open finalists sinner fritz along with Rublev are the worst in terms of variety.
All are top 10 and sinner is overwhelming number 1. I say variety is overrated.

 

[Pheasant]

Wow. Now that is flat-out scary stuff by Sinner. He is playing at an ATG level now on hard courts. That's not hyperbole. If this cat ever gets a serve that measures up to the rest of his game, then it'll be game over. Lots of records for peak will be in jeopardy.

He crushes the ball. When my 7-speaker surround sound stereo is on, you can really hear the difference in sounds between his and the rest of the tour. It remind me of Delpo. Delpo also had a shot that made a different sound.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Wow. Now that is flat-out scary stuff by Sinner. He is playing at an ATG level now on hard courts. That's not hyperbole. If this cat ever gets a serve that measures up to the rest of his game, then it'll be game over. Lots of records for peak will be in jeopardy.

He crushes the ball. When my 7-speaker surround sound stereo is on, you can really hear the difference in sounds between his and the rest of the tour. It remind me of Delpo. Delpo also had a shot that made a different sound.

He is delpo on steroids from power.

But far more aggressive than delpo.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Ewww

 

[Hitman]

This guy could be the greatest of them all. He's the human wrecking machine for a very valid reason.

 

[nolefam_2024]

This guy could be the greatest of them all. He's the human wrecking machine for a very valid reason.

A little difficult for him. His problem is physical issues. He has as much game as the greatest I think.

 

[Rovesciarete]

A little difficult for him. His problem is physical issues. He has as much game as the greatest I think.

I’m fascinated by the process and the outcome. I think that so far the hip was only thing worrying me was the hip.

He has proven to be very careful about illnesses and injuries and they were able to handle the blister and pollen issue quite well. Credit must also go to Patti and his team for being very careful with the loads.

Jannik burst into the scene despite being clearly well behind the physical prowess of his age group and having a weak serve because he was was that excellent of a ball striker.

It is a nice feeling getting it confirmed years later by the mighty algorithm.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Didn't realise the extent of an interesting trend in rally length over the last 52 weeks, Sinneraz have started to absolutely dominate the 4+ rallies.

Here we have the best overall, sorted by the win rate in the longest rallies. I eliminated a few under 15 charted matches but left outliner Fonseco and Nadal in.

Djokovic seems to be the best serve and Sinner the best serve plus player among the group. De Minaur shows his grit and class by becoming stronger as the rally length increases.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-10-28

Player​ Matches​ RallyLen​ RLen-Serve​ RLen-Return​ 1-3 W%​ 4-6 W%​ 7-9 W%​ 10+ W%​ FH/GS​ BH Slice%​ FHP/Match​ BHP/Match​ Joao Fonseca​ 6​ 4.0​ 3.9​ 4.1​ 51.2%​ 55.1%​ 58.2%​ 61.5%​ 52.9%​ 15.3%​ 9.8​ 3.3​ Carlos Alcaraz​ 51​ 4.0​ 4.0​ 4.1​ 52.5%​ 55.3%​ 53.9%​ 57.0%​ 53.1%​ 18.3%​ 11.7​ 2.5​ Alex De Minaur​ 26​ 5.0​ 4.9​ 5.2​ 48.4%​ 52.0%​ 52.5%​ 56.9%​ 48.5%​ 15.9%​ 7.8​ 1.0​ Jannik Sinner​ 67​ 4.3​ 4.2​ 4.3​ 53.9%​ 56.9%​ 54.1%​ 56.1%​ 51.4%​ 7.0%​ 12.3​ 6.0​ Rafael Nadal​ 11​ 4.9​ 5.0​ 4.8​ 48.7%​ 51.4%​ 51.6%​ 55.6%​ 54.8%​ 9.4%​ 12.1​ 1.0​ Daniil Medvedev​ 38​ 5.0​ 4.7​ 5.2​ 50.5%​ 49.6%​ 52.6%​ 54.5%​ 45.0%​ 7.2%​ 6.1​ 5.1​ Novak Djokovic​ 49​ 4.5​ 4.2​ 4.7​ 54.5%​ 55.1%​ 52.6%​ 53.5%​ 49.0%​ 15.6%​ 12.4​ 7.0​

Fonseca's 6 matches against weaker oppositions is a far too small sample the 4+ win percentage is so high that it aids my impression of an outstanding talent.

Medvedev's serve

 

[nolefam_2024]

Didn't realise the extent of an interesting trend in rally length over the last 52 weeks, Sinneraz have started to absolutely dominate the 4+ rallies.

Here we have the best overall, sorted by the win rate in the longest rallies. I eliminated a few under 15 charted matches but left outliner Fonseco and Nadal in.

Djokovic seems to be the best serve and Sinner the best serve plus player among the group. De Minaur shows his grit and class by becoming stronger as the rally length increases.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-10-28

Player​ Matches​ RallyLen​ RLen-Serve​ RLen-Return​ 1-3 W%​ 4-6 W%​ 7-9 W%​ 10+ W%​ FH/GS​ BH Slice%​ FHP/Match​ BHP/Match​ Joao Fonseca​ 6​ 4.0​ 3.9​ 4.1​ 51.2%​ 55.1%​ 58.2%​ 61.5%​ 52.9%​ 15.3%​ 9.8​ 3.3​ Carlos Alcaraz​ 51​ 4.0​ 4.0​ 4.1​ 52.5%​ 55.3%​ 53.9%​ 57.0%​ 53.1%​ 18.3%​ 11.7​ 2.5​ Alex De Minaur​ 26​ 5.0​ 4.9​ 5.2​ 48.4%​ 52.0%​ 52.5%​ 56.9%​ 48.5%​ 15.9%​ 7.8​ 1.0​ Jannik Sinner​ 67​ 4.3​ 4.2​ 4.3​ 53.9%​ 56.9%​ 54.1%​ 56.1%​ 51.4%​ 7.0%​ 12.3​ 6.0​ Rafael Nadal​ 11​ 4.9​ 5.0​ 4.8​ 48.7%​ 51.4%​ 51.6%​ 55.6%​ 54.8%​ 9.4%​ 12.1​ 1.0​ Daniil Medvedev​ 38​ 5.0​ 4.7​ 5.2​ 50.5%​ 49.6%​ 52.6%​ 54.5%​ 45.0%​ 7.2%​ 6.1​ 5.1​ Novak Djokovic​ 49​ 4.5​ 4.2​ 4.7​ 54.5%​ 55.1%​ 52.6%​ 53.5%​ 49.0%​ 15.6%​ 12.4​ 7.0​

Fonseca's 6 matches against weaker oppositions is a far too small sample the 4+ win percentage is so high that it aids my impression of an outstanding talent.

This is the future.

Do not wait. Pounce. Toni Nadal will not like as it goes against the DNA in his body. Lol

 

[Jonas78]

His stats the last 52 weeks are extreme.

91.2% win on service games on HC is on par with the best servebots like Isner & Karlovic. Even peak Roger wasnt on those levels.

On top of that he is a great returner. Ofc not peak-Djokovic level, but still great.

He will be the man to beat...

 

[Jonas78]

A giant Andre Agassi we could say

A giant Agassi with a service games won on 91.2% on HC last 52 weeks (Karlovic/Isner level).

Sounds scary...

 

[Rovesciarete]

A nice chart of the relative fh/bh quality of the 2024 Turin class, more to the right and up is obviously better; if you slice the graph diagonally it reflects their ranking quite well.

Sinner dominates, of course, but also very high combined marks for Alcaraz & Zverev. Very impressive to see Zverev with that forehand score, he has become more assertive against most players on the tour. Rublev & Medvedev are the polar opposite you expect, if Daniil gets his serve back it will be trouble.

I will give Meddy that the balls don't help him and Ruud that they do so for him.

 

[nolefam_2024]

A nice chart of the relative fh/bh quality of the 2024 Turin class, more to the right and up is obviously better; if you slice the graph diagonally it reflects their ranking quite well.

Sinner dominates, of course, but also very high combined marks for Alcaraz & Zverev. Very impressive to see Zverev with that forehand score, he has become more assertive against most players on the tour. Rublev & Medvedev are the polar opposite you expect, if Daniil gets his serve back it will be trouble.

I will give Meddy that the balls don't help him and Ruud that they do so for him.

Zverev leads on the serve side and sinner on groundstrokes

These two are top two.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Zverev leads on the serve side and sinner on groundstrokes

These two are top two.

Rublev isn't the best returner but Zverev served spectacularly.

 

[scotus]

I’m fascinated by the process and the outcome. I think that so far the hip was only thing worrying me was the hip.

He has proven to be very careful about illnesses and injuries and they were able to handle the blister and pollen issue quite well. Credit must also go to Patti and his team for being very careful with the loads.

Jannik burst into the scene despite being clearly well behind the physical prowess of his age group and having a weak serve because he was was that excellent of a ball striker.

It is a nice feeling getting it confirmed years later by the mighty algorithm.

Of his hips do not cooperate, he will go the way of Hewitt and Murray….

 

[Spin Diesel]

A nice chart of the relative fh/bh quality of the 2024 Turin class, more to the right and up is obviously better; if you slice the graph diagonally it reflects their ranking quite well.

Sinner dominates, of course, but also very high combined marks for Alcaraz & Zverev. Very impressive to see Zverev with that forehand score, he has become more assertive against most players on the tour. Rublev & Medvedev are the polar opposite you expect, if Daniil gets his serve back it will be trouble.

I will give Meddy that the balls don't help him and Ruud that they do so for him.

Eye-test wise I actually see Zverev's FH closer to the rest than to Alcaraz and Sinner. I think this stat is inflated due to his FH often being a plus1 shot after his serve.
Would love to see some FH and BH shot quality stats on return games only. Does anyone agree?

 

[Rovesciarete]

Of his hips do not cooperate, he will go the way of Hewitt and Murray….

Even in the unlikely case of a similar rare issue those two had to rely on their legwork while Sinner has his superior serve plus and rarified firepower.

Eye-test wise I actually see Zverev's FH closer to the rest than to Alcaraz and Sinner. I think this stat is inflated due to his FH often being a plus1 shot after his serve.
Would love to see some FH and BH shot quality stats on return games only. Does anyone agree?

Tennisabstract gives Zverev far less forehand potency but the algo ranks him highly. A + forehand winner should (also) drive the former higher, so it is intriguing. Almost exactly how the Alcaraz backhand gets treated by both statistical approaches.

Will watch him more closely and how he employs his forehand. Played Rublev well.

 

[Rovesciarete]

@nolefam_2024 posted also the return stats from TI, which fit well here; clear return cluster by Sinneraz+Meddy and Nole would be there too. Explains much of their performance.

Sinner, Alcaraz and Rublev having a similar serve quality but vastly different outcomes illustrates the importance of the plus and ++ strokes. Alcaraz is fantastic and Sinner delivers there like few others in history.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Getting it done and stealing it away also sets Sinner and Alcaraz apart:

 

[Spin Diesel]

@nolefam_2024 posted also the return stats from TI, which fit well here; clear return cluster by Sinneraz+Meddy and Nole would be there too. Explains much of their performance.

Sinner, Alcaraz and Rublev having a similar serve quality but vastly different outcomes illustrates the importance of the plus and ++ strokes. Alcaraz is fantastic and Sinner delivers there like few others in history.

Crazy that Medvedev's serve is now below tour average at 6'6” Would be interesting to see where it used to be.
With Sinner I find it interesting, because I agree that his average serving doesn't look particularly impressive but he seems to now often serve his best under pressure, while his serve used to let him down in those situations.

 

[Spin Diesel]

Even in the unlikely case of a similar rare issue those two had to rely on their legwork while Sinner has his superior serve plus and rarified firepower.



Tennisabstract gives Zverev far less forehand potency but the algo ranks him highly. A + forehand winner should (also) drive the former higher, so it is intriguing. Almost exactly how the Alcaraz backhand gets treated by both statistical approaches.

Will watch him more closely and how he employs his forehand. Played Rublev well.

Is there a ranking list on tennis abstract on different stroke potency?

 

[vokazu]

He also has the most positive results this year.

 

[sortof]

I will give Meddy that the balls don't help him and Ruud that they do so for him.

The German double Krawietz/Puetz commented that the balls played in Torino are pretty lively and take spin very well. The courts however are on the slow side according to them. I can see that Ruud likes these circumstances. Meddy probably prefers faster courts - but being out of form he is bound to have issues on any kind of courts.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Is there a ranking list on tennis abstract on different stroke potency?

Just click on the 'Rally' for '52 weeks' and select whatever you want.

Crazy that Medvedev's serve is now below tour average at 6'6” Would be interesting to see where it used to be.
With Sinner I find it interesting, because I agree that his average serving doesn't look particularly impressive but he seems to now often serve his best under pressure, while his serve used to let him down in those situations.

Sinner faces slightly less break balls than Nr.2 Zverev but he saves far more of them and thus gets broken least. He has also the highest break point conversion among this group, with Alcaraz basically even but gets less break balls than Alcaraz and Djokovic. His surface mix should favor the serve and penalize the return.

Rk	Player	BPConv%​	BP/M​	Bks/S​	Bks/M​	BPSvd%​	BPvs/M​	Bkn/S​	Bkn/M​
1	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	42.0%​	8.3​	1.28​	3.5​	73.7%​	4.3​	0.42​	1.1​
2	Alexander Zverev [GER]	37.5%​	8.0​	1.11​	3.0​	68.8%​	4.4​	0.50​	1.4​
35	Matteo Berrettini [ITA]	39.1%​	5.9​	0.97​	2.3​	72.6%​	4.4​	0.51​	1.2​
3	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	41.9%​	8.9​	1.44​	3.7​	65.0%​	4.6​	0.62​	1.6​
6	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	40.4%​	8.9​	1.31​	3.6​	64.5%​	4.9​	0.64​	1.8​
45	Zhizhen Zhang [CHN]	38.0%​	5.4​	0.82​	2.1​	56.9%​	4.9​	0.85​	2.1​
10	Grigor Dimitrov [BUL]	37.3%​	7.3​	1.02​	2.7​	67.2%​	5.0​	0.62​	1.7​
5	Taylor Fritz [USA]	39.5%​	6.8​	0.98​	2.7​	69.1%​	5.0​	0.57​	1.5​
31	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard [FRA]	40.6%​	3.4​	0.52​	1.4​	68.8%​	5.0​	0.59​	1.6​
15	Jack Draper [GBR]	42.4%​	7.2​	1.15​	3.0​	60.8%​	5.1​	0.76​	2.0​

Medvedev and De Minaur lead the BPConver% and the latter gains most break balls - but faces weaker opposition.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Sinner's Slingshot, his next-gen backhand:

Before Piatti with only two regular training sessions a week. Guess Heribert 'Hebi' Mayr was not trying to force young Jannik into a rigid scheme. It feels like Jan is almost using a left forehand.

Watched the last 10-15 min and he went for drop shots/slices even back then in key moments. Overall plays quite aggressively and at this age and on clay obviously lots of moonballs. Slides forward to hit a counter-drop shot as in Umag.

At last the man himself speaks:

Q. In the technique side, you have one of the best amazing backhands on the tour. I was wondering, when you are hitting your backhand with your two hands, do you feel like you are using, like, right hand or using, like, left hand and hitting forehand with your left hand?

JANNIK SINNER: I use a lot of the left hand for the technique. The right one gives me, for sure, more power, but I feel like I use a lot with the left hand.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Look at the power he has on even BH. It looks like another fh. Cracking the ball totally.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Interesting to look back at his strokes. Great backhand already, dominant against the one-hander.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I published here the data for the 52 weeks up to the 4th of November 2024. Since then:

Djokovic's combined baseline potency/match was at superb 19.4 and decreased slight to fantastic 18.4

Sinner's potency numbers keep going up - from fantastic 18.3 to scary 20.8.

Alcaraz's great 14.4 went down to 13.8

The combined baseline potency/100 reflects the quality of the average rally ball better.

Djokovic 14.8 -> 14.6

Sinner 13.4 -> 15.7

Alcaraz 12.8 -> 12.7


Tentative Conclusion:

Novak still has a slightly decreasing but still stellar quality of shot which his legs are less and less able to bring to bear. Carlos is winning more than the others with his outrageous wheels combined with great potency. Jannik is now the best baseliner.

 

[jackson vile]

Sinner hasn’t even peaked yet, I’m curious how far he can take it.

It’s amazing to see Novak being able to produce such amazing quality at his age

 

[Rovesciarete]

Sinner hasn’t even peaked yet, I’m curious how far he can take it.

It’s amazing to see Novak being able to produce such amazing quality at his age

If a simple calculation fits the eye test so well, it must have a good deal of merit. Novak and Rafa have been scoring very highly in 2022 too!


2022 Combined baseline potency per match:

Nadal 21.5! although with a far smaller sample size and a shift towards clay

Djokovic 13.9 with a larger one and more balanced surface mix

Sinner 13.1 with ditto.


CBP/100:

Rafa 12.4

Novak 9.2

Jannik 9.5


Rafa was really crushing his groundstrokes that year. Those old warhorses lose their legs before their strokes. Dimitrov and Tsitsipas with negative drive backhand numbers as one might expect.




Janni's second serve slider seems inspired by Nole and played a critical role against Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final...