gsung
New User
This morning I was grabbing my coffee and watching a youtube video from TennCom, where he mentioned he usually loses 10-5 to his friend in some practice tiebreaks (i.e. he wins 33% of points). I've been wondering for a long time, if a player has x% chance to win a point, what would be the expected match result? Also I saw this thread when searching for something similar: https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/stats-guys-55-games-won-70-matches-won.508622/
Since I've been experimenting a lot with AI coding tools, I finally got off my lazy bum and wrote a simulator for this (or should I say, AI allowed me to remain a lazy bum and still "write" the simulator). Here's what I cooked up this afternoon:
Some interesting results from the simulation -- each row is based on 100,000 simulated matches:
For those curious, the simulator's code is here: https://github.com/georgesung/tennis-match-simulator
Since I've been experimenting a lot with AI coding tools, I finally got off my lazy bum and wrote a simulator for this (or should I say, AI allowed me to remain a lazy bum and still "write" the simulator). Here's what I cooked up this afternoon:
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www.georgesung.com
Some interesting results from the simulation -- each row is based on 100,000 simulated matches:
Win probability per point (%) | Match win probability (%) | Expected games per set |
50 | 50 (duh) | 4.83 - 4.84 |
51 | 60 | 5.06 - 4.58 |
52 | 70 | 5.26 - 4.31 |
53 | 79 | 5.45 - 4.02 |
54 | 86 | 5.59 - 3.75 |
55 | 91 | 5.71 - 3.45 |
60 | 100 (rounded) | 5.98 - 2.15 <-- 6-2 expected set score |
67 <-- winning 10-5 in a tiebreak | 100 | 6.00 - 0.97 <-- 6-1 expected set score |
72 | 100 | 6.00 - 0.50 <-- expect to get one game in a match |
For those curious, the simulator's code is here: https://github.com/georgesung/tennis-match-simulator
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