Several threads regarding sandbagging. etc. As sectionals are upon us here in Texas I did a little research at 3.5 level to analyze sandbagging with respect to self-rates. 3.5 made sense since from 4.0 on up self-rates aren't that impactful.
There are 1,260 3.5 players in Texas. Out of that there are 257 self-rated players. That is about 20.4%. Out of the 15 teams that are in sectionals there are 342 players. Of those 44 are self-rated. That is about 12.9%. So about ½ the “normal” rate. My theory is that the good teams don’t just let any newbie join their team and you have some talent/potential, or be friends with the captain.
Now let’s look closer at those 44 self-rated players. The average winning match percentage for all sectional players is 63.83% (2082-1181). For self-rated players it is 60.34% (199-91). Not much of a difference there. Looking at TLS and tennis record statistics the average dynamic rating for all sectional players is 3.29. For self-rates it is 3.33. A little bit higher.
Below are the self-rate breakdowns (Self column) by team. I did not show the team name, to avoid name calling noise, but that can be looked up easy enough. Top 8 is dynamic rating of top 8 players. Team is dynamic rating of entire team. TLS is tennis league rating and how many different line combinations have been used during course of season.
Additionally at this stage, captains for all the well-known stronger areas, have this information and everyone knows exactly who is doing what. Everyone knows that a high percentage of self-rates that join the teams with strong history will not be just some fill ins. Obviously a team that that has 25-30% of their roster as self-rates is doing some searching around and trying to get an advantage by finding players who have not been involved with USTA in the past.
So my conclusion is that self-rates have little or no impact on eventual 3.5 sectional champions. Experienced players who are good at managing their scores and results are much more important.
There are 1,260 3.5 players in Texas. Out of that there are 257 self-rated players. That is about 20.4%. Out of the 15 teams that are in sectionals there are 342 players. Of those 44 are self-rated. That is about 12.9%. So about ½ the “normal” rate. My theory is that the good teams don’t just let any newbie join their team and you have some talent/potential, or be friends with the captain.
Now let’s look closer at those 44 self-rated players. The average winning match percentage for all sectional players is 63.83% (2082-1181). For self-rated players it is 60.34% (199-91). Not much of a difference there. Looking at TLS and tennis record statistics the average dynamic rating for all sectional players is 3.29. For self-rates it is 3.33. A little bit higher.
Below are the self-rate breakdowns (Self column) by team. I did not show the team name, to avoid name calling noise, but that can be looked up easy enough. Top 8 is dynamic rating of top 8 players. Team is dynamic rating of entire team. TLS is tennis league rating and how many different line combinations have been used during course of season.
Code:
Area Roster Self Top 8 Team TLS
1 1 Wild Houston 17 3 3.42 3.33 3.55 (21)
1 2 Dallas 18 5 3.41 3.29 3.45 (27)
1 3 Waco 13 4 3.33 3.25 3.31 (15)
1 4 TBD
2 1 Wild Austin 17 5 3.41 3.19 3.40 (25)
2 2 San Angelo 12 1 3.34 3.24 3.30 (20)
2 3 Amarillo 12 3 3.47 3.34 3.51 (23)
2 4 Houston 21 5 3.45 3.36 3.54 (30)
3 1 Wild San Antonio 15 4 3.38 3.29 3.39 (29)
3 2 Wild Dallas 24 2 3.53 3.37 3.46 (27)
3 3 Fort Worth 14 3 3.41 3.28 3.30 (23)
3 4 Austin 19 1 3.40 3.26 3.34 (31)
4 1 San Antonio 15 0 3.40 3.31 3.36 (26)
4 2 NETX 16 2 3.47 3.33 3.36 (13)
4 3 Wild Fort Worth 15 4 3.38 3.25 3.29 (26)
4 4 SETX 13 2 3.50 3.38 3.49 (17)
Additionally at this stage, captains for all the well-known stronger areas, have this information and everyone knows exactly who is doing what. Everyone knows that a high percentage of self-rates that join the teams with strong history will not be just some fill ins. Obviously a team that that has 25-30% of their roster as self-rates is doing some searching around and trying to get an advantage by finding players who have not been involved with USTA in the past.
So my conclusion is that self-rates have little or no impact on eventual 3.5 sectional champions. Experienced players who are good at managing their scores and results are much more important.