The 2 next generations to Big4 at Top 20.

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
No 3. Raonic(25 years old, born in 1990)
5. Nishikori(26, 1989)
6. Cilic(28, 1988)
8. Thiem(23, 1993)
11. Goffin(25, 1990)
13. Kyrgios(21, 1995)
14. Bautista Agut(28, 1988)
15. Pouille(22, 1994)
17. Dimitrov(25, 1991)

These are the players in their 20s who have reached the best year end rankings and some have made it into top 20 for the first time this year. 9 of them in total, and I'm quite surprised we have finally some new faces and the transition has taken place albeit rather slowly.

Other noticeable players:

23. Jack Sock(24, 1992)
24. Zverev(19, 1997)
26. Tomic(24, 1992)
38. Del Potro(28, 1988) - he's only as old as Cilic and Bautista Agut, so I've included him here. I've also skipped a number of players in their 20s because they are 25 or over and I don't think their potentials are as good as players included here)
45. Kyle Edmund(21, 1995)
48. Coric(20, 1996)

Outside top 50, there are Khachnov(no 53, 20 yo), Vesely(55, 23), Pavlasek(76, 22), Fritz(77, 19), Thompson(80, 22), Monteiro(83, 22) and Medvedev(100, 20). Rublev, Chung and Donaldson have dropped out of 100 and inside top 150, while 18 year-olds Duckhee Lee and Tiafoe have moved up into top 150. I think there will be a lot of changes on the rankings in 2017. We will have more young players at the top. Let me finish with how the Big4 have progressed on the rankings when they were young.

Federer: no.64 when he was 18(at the end of 1999) no.29 at 19(2000) - no.13 at 20(2001) - no. 6 at 21(2002) - no. 2 at 22(2003) - no.1 at 23(2004).
Nadal: no.51 at 18(2004) - 2 at 19(2005) - 2 at 20(2006) - you know the rest. Quite amazing he was no.2 at just 19.
Djokovic: 78 at 18(2005) - 16 at 19(2006) - 3 at 20(2007) - stayed at no.3 until 2010 then became no.1 in 2011(turned 24).
Murray: 64 at 18(2005, turned pro in that same year) - 17 at 19(2006) - 11 at 20(2007) - 4 at 21(2008) - 3 at 25(2012).
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
The point I was trying to make was none of the players in their 20s have the progress in rankings that matches those of BIG4, except Zverev, who is slightly ahead of Federer as a 19 yo. Maybe it's obvious to everyone, but I guess we haven't seen anyone of Big4's caliber yet from the young generations. I think Thiem, Kyrgios and Zverev seem to be the future no.1s. Let's see how much of a progress Coric and Pouille makes next year.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
The point I was trying to make was none of the players in their 20s have the progress in rankings that matches those of BIG4, except Zverev, who is slightly ahead of Federer as a 19 yo. Maybe it's obvious to everyone, but I guess we haven't seen anyone of Big4's caliber yet from the young generations. I think Thiem, Kyrgios and Zverev seem to be the future no.1s. Let's see how much of a progress Coric and Pouille makes next year.
Murray was even no.2 at some point in 2009 at 22, even though he finished that year ranked 4.
 

Tenez!

Professional
The point I was trying to make was none of the players in their 20s have the progress in rankings that matches those of BIG4, except Zverev, who is slightly ahead of Federer as a 19 yo. Maybe it's obvious to everyone, but I guess we haven't seen anyone of Big4's caliber yet from the young generations. I think Thiem, Kyrgios and Zverev seem to be the future no.1s. Let's see how much of a progress Coric and Pouille makes next year.
Ya know, a graph would show all this much more clearly than a list of numbers.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
The younger players are just not that good. We knew that already. But they still have time to prove themselves as the Raonic-Nishikori generation seems to be the weakest of all time, so they won't present a super tough challenge.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
The point I was trying to make was none of the players in their 20s have the progress in rankings that matches those of BIG4, except Zverev, who is slightly ahead of Federer as a 19 yo. Maybe it's obvious to everyone, but I guess we haven't seen anyone of Big4's caliber yet from the young generations. I think Thiem, Kyrgios and Zverev seem to be the future no.1s. Let's see how much of a progress Coric and Pouille makes next year.
These are the ones to watch for the new big 4. Coric looked awfully solid before injury took him out this Summer (moving better), so good call to include him. Pouille is six months younger than Thiem and has not really displayed the points stats that would include him despite his great results. Pouille needs a much stronger serve game to contend and look for that to happen in 2017; then he's fully in the conversation.

2017 is feast or famine for Thiem. Either he gets back on track and jumps his points stats up to the next level (over 53% won) or he's pretty much stalled out.

Zverev is on fire and just waiting for the serve game to improve which may take another year to get him up to top 10. Zverev did make a ranking of 20 this year, but dropped when he didn't play Bercy.

Kyrgios may not be consistent enough to be a number 1, but he's ready to win big events in 2017.

Real opportunity for these players and a Dimitrov or Raonic in 2017 as it looks like the Big 3 are in complete disarray entering 2017.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM IS DELPO. HIS BEST YEAR INCOMING IF HE GETS SLAM STAMINA BY THE 2ND HALF.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
These are the ones to watch for the new big 4. Coric looked awfully solid before injury took him out this Summer (moving better), so good call to include him. Pouille is six months younger than Thiem and has not really displayed the points stats that would include him despite his great results. Pouille needs a much stronger serve game to contend and look for that to happen in 2017; then he's fully in the conversation.

2017 is feast or famine for Thiem. Either he gets back on track and jumps his points stats up to the next level (over 53% won) or he's pretty much stalled out.

Zverev is on fire and just waiting for the serve game to improve which may take another year to get him up to top 10. Zverev did make a ranking of 20 this year, but dropped when he didn't play Bercy.

Kyrgios may not be consistent enough to be a number 1, but he's ready to win big events in 2017.

Real opportunity for these players and a Dimitrov or Raonic in 2017 as it looks like the Big 3 are in complete disarray entering 2017.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM IS DELPO. HIS BEST YEAR INCOMING IF HE GETS SLAM STAMINA BY THE 2ND HALF.
If Thiem still focuses on all those meaningless tournaments next year too, then stick a fork in him.
 

toby55555

Hall of Fame
I wouldn't count Sock out just yet, he beat Zeverev, Raonic and Thiem in October, if he could just make his backhand more of a weapon.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
If Thiem still focuses on all those meaningless tournaments next year too, then stick a fork in him.
His game took an up tick at WTF after having a fork in it since Wimbledon.

Agree. Thiem needs better balance in his schedule. They ran a great schedule in early 2016 in order to boost his ranking and he lucked into WTF despite falling apart. He'll be 8th seed at Auz. He's likely to start out a bit heavy, but hopefully he'll be better at knowing when to drop tournaments out of his schedule. Bresnick ran the early 2016 schedule. Thiem took control and we have the trip to Rogers cup where he forfeits down 4-1 to Anderson. We'll see if Thiem has learned his lesson. Based on his crazy wildcards this Fall I don't think he has.:oops:
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
His game took an up tick at WTF after having a fork in it since Wimbledon.

Agree. Thiem needs better balance in his schedule. They ran a great schedule in early 2016 in order to boost his ranking and he lucked into WTF despite falling apart. He'll be 8th seed at Auz. He's likely to start out a bit heavy, but hopefully he'll be better at knowing when to drop tournaments out of his schedule. Bresnick ran the early 2016 schedule. Thiem took control and we have the trip to Rogers cup where he forfeits down 4-1 to Anderson. We'll see if Thiem has learned his lesson. Based on his crazy wildcards this Fall I don't think he has.:oops:
The only reason he would focus on these smaller tournaments, IMO, is probably Thiem's belief that he isn't a contender for the bigger ones and in order to win some sure trophies it would probably be better to try his luck in the mickey mouse ones.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
An American with a good BH? Is this real life? :p

J/k.
Sock's backhand was so bad that the inevitable is happening; its getting better. If the guy would get serious he'd have a shot at top 10. Suspect he's got some minor allergy issue that was relieved of all things by Sock being sick down at Auckland. Supreme Sock tennis in 2nd and 3rd sets with Ferrer. Backhand looking better now. If he'd put it all together he'd be very dangerous.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
The only reason he would focus on these smaller tournaments, IMO, is probably Thiem's belief that he isn't a contender for the bigger ones and in order to win some sure trophies it would probably be better to try his luck in the mickey mouse ones.
The nut case likes to play almost every week. He entered events this Fall with no chance of gaining points.:rolleyes:

Your analysis probably does hold some water. I'm sure Thiem would like to challenge the Muster records. Lots of Germanic events at the ATP 250 level. He could have been stockpiling his larder to insulate his ranking. I'm sure they want to keep his ranking up for the seeding advantages.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
The nut case likes to play almost every week. He entered events this Fall with no chance of gaining points.:rolleyes:

Your analysis probably does hold some water. I'm sure Thiem would like to challenge the Muster records. Lots of Germanic events at the ATP 250 level. He could have been stockpiling his larder to insulate his ranking. I'm sure they want to keep his ranking up for the seeding advantages.
What's the point of that approach if he'll arrive at the bigger events jaded? Case in point: he played a MM event before the Madrid masters and lost to Delpo in his first match in the Spanish capital.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
What's the point of that approach if he'll arrive at the bigger events jaded? Case in point: he played a MM event before the Madrid masters and lost to Delpo in his first match in the Spanish capital.
Agree. Thiem just likes to play every week pretty much.

Thiem's goal will be to maintain a top 8 seed for the masters events which will give him a crticial bye in the clay masters. I'd rather see him play Barcelona over Munich, but he's not taking a full two week off between Monte Carlo and Madrid.:confused:
 

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
And I don't think Blake had a bad BH either. It help up pretty well against Rafa's vicious topspin FH.
Oh yeah, he could really thump it off that wing at times. Maybe the last great OHBH for an American player. Now it seems as if all American play exclusively with two handed backhands. :(
 

spirit95

Professional
Delpo was beating Fed year-for-year when he was beginning his career. 92 at 18, 44 at 19, 9 at 20, 5 at 21
 

Tenez!

Professional
Indeed. I guess Nishikori has done as well as he could've while Dimitrov has taken a few back steps. Nishikori haven't been able to overcome Big4, who are really special.
Nishikori is one of 5 active players, with Wawa, Delpo, Tsonga and Berdych, to have at least 2 wins over each of the Big4.
Bulk and physical frailty are his problem, far more than skills.
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
Nishikori is one of 5 active players, with Wawa, Delpo, Tsonga and Berdych, to have at least 2 wins over each of the Big4.
Bulk and physical frailty are his problem, far more than skills.
Surely, Nishikori's size and physicality are the limiting factors for him. Technically, he is truly great, I think. Having said that, his speed may come from his relatively small size. I have always rated Nishikori very highly. His unpredictable counter punching is quite awesome.
 
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