The 2025-2026 NBA Season

InsuranceMan said:
Don’t think Bron is gonna do that much for them
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Unfortunately don’t think adding anything less than 2016 LeBron is beating OKC this year. What is this team man. Absolute demonic stuff and JDub hasn’t even played yet.

Shai has gotten better, as well. Subtle, but he’s a sharper decision maker and has more counters now. It’s basically just the Dubs devil magic and injury luck standing in their way.
 
Kralingen said:
Unfortunately don’t think adding anything less than 2016 LeBron is beating OKC this year.
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Hate to be despondent so early in what’s been a pretty banger season so far but…..not even he could do it, lol. They’ve got a year of chemistry and ‘chip experience added on. Realistically only injuries (not something I’d ever hope for) can stop them this year. The defence is terrifying. They literally have 6-7 guys with All-D talent. Never seen anything like it in my lifetime.

(And yes, a fresh Thunder team is better than those banged-up ‘16 finals Warriors.)
 
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TheFifthSet said:
Hate to be despondent so early in what’s been a pretty banger season so far but…..not even he could do it, lol. They’ve got a year of chemistry and ‘chip experience added on. Realistically only injuries (not something I’d ever hope for) can stop them this year. The defence is terrifying. They literally have 6-7 guys with All-D talent. Never seen anything like it in 20+ years following the league.

(And yes, a fresh Thunder team is better than those banged-up Warriors.)
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First of all, through LeBron all things are possible so jot that down. Ironically the one profile current OKC actually struggles to defend is a burly 4 who can shoot and pass from the in between game (aka LeBron), but yeah the Lakers team is too flawed as is to mount a serious challenge. I think Bron goes to Cleveland next year and that’s his last chance.

Do you think last year’s playoff series was a bit fake then? You seem too pessimistic. Denver can definitely beat them imo, especially with Jokic deciding that he’s just never going to miss shots ever again. Cam Johnson will need to step up though.
 
Kralingen said:
First of all, through LeBron all things are possible so jot that down. Ironically the one profile current OKC actually struggles to defend is a burly 4 who can shoot and pass from the in between game (aka LeBron), but yeah the Lakers team is too flawed as is to mount a serious challenge. I think Bron goes to Cleveland next year and that’s his last chance.

Do you think last year’s playoff series was a bit fake then? You seem too pessimistic. Denver can definitely beat them imo, especially with Jokic deciding that he’s just never going to miss shots ever again. Cam Johnson will need to step up though.
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They’re the youngest of all contending teams, have more draft capital than anyone (contender or otherwise), got the monkey off their back so will be playing more freely, operated at a 65 win pace without Chet last year and are 12-1 to start this year without J-Dub and with several of their other key guys missing games.

Crazier things can and have happened but they should be the overwhelming favourites for the next few years barring catastrophic injuries and/or mismanagement. Didn’t think we’d get a team so well-equipped to dominate the NBA in the 2020’s but here we are. The age of parity was short-lived.
 
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In case you guys think I'm exaggerating about their defensive depth, just checked: they have 7 of the Top 18 in DEPM, which is the current gold standard for defensive advanced all-in-one's:

Caruso (#1 -- on a per-minute basis this isn't as absurd as it sounds as he has no offensive load so he can focus on wreaking havoc. I've been calling him the best defensive guard in the league since 2020).
Holmgren (#5)
Wallace (#10)
I-Hart (#12)
Mitchell (#16)
Jaylin Williams (#17)
SGA (#18)



Don't think people understand how terrifying that is. Missing are Jalen (#48), Kenrich (#61), Dort (#106), Isiah Joe (#119), Deng (#127). Wiggins (#152).

Everyone in their 13-man RS rotation grades as at least a positive defender in a metric that does the best at adjusting for collinearity...7-8 have All-D potential. This is the most stacked defensive team I've ever watched and yes I'm including the 2000's Pistons, Spurs, Celtics, 2010's Warriors, etc. They didn’t drop off after Chet missed half the season last year. They’ve been playing better than ever with Jalen sidelined. They were 5-1 in games Shai missed last year, +6/100 with him on the bench in the RS, +8 in the playoffs and this year they’re +11. They can lose one of Chet/Jalen and probably 2 of their next 5-6 best and still threaten to make a deep run in the playoffs.

The fact that their offence underperformed in the '25 playoffs is an awful sign for the rest of the league, not a promising one.
 
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TheFifthSet said:
In case you guys think I'm exaggerating about their defensive depth, just checked: they have 7 of the Top 18 in DEPM, which is the current gold standard for defensive advanced all-in-one's:

Caruso (#1 -- on a per-minute basis this isn't as absurd as it sounds as he has no offensive load to speak of. I've been calling him the best defensive guard in the league since 2020).
Holmgren (#5)
Wallace (#10)
I-Hart (#12)
Mitchell (#16)
Jaylin Williams (#17)
SGA (#18)



Don't think people understand how terrifying that is. Missing are Jalen (#48), Kenrich (#61), Dort (#106), Isiah Joe (#119), Deng (#127). Wiggins (#152).

Everyone in their 13-man RS rotation grades as at least a positive defender in a metric that does the best at adjusting for collinearity...7-8 have All-D potential. This is the most stacked defensive team I've ever watched and yes I'm including the 2000's Pistons, Spurs, Celtics, 2010's Warriors, etc. They didn’t drop off after Chet missed half the season last year. They’ve been playing better than ever with Jalen sidelined. They were 5-1 in games Shai missed last year, +6/100 with him on the bench in the RS, +8 in the playoffs and this year they’re +11. They can lose one of Chet/Jalen and probably 2 of their next 5-6 best and still threaten to make a deep run in the playoffs.

The fact that their offence underperformed in the '25 playoffs is an awful sign for the rest of the league, not a promising one.
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It’s the 90s Bulls with discount MJ and Pippen (SGA/JDub) but supercharged everything else. I wonder whether SGA will get called the GOAT too

Still, Denver matches up really well as does Gooden State. Im pretty sure Steph/Dray/Jimmy can solve that defense in a playoff series
 
Kralingen said:
I wonder whether SGA will get called the GOAT too
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I worry about this tbh. Shai imho is like a Peak Wade-level talent in a 100th percentile team situation. I think he will get an annoyingly significant winning boost if nothing changes. Don't think he's as good as Jokic or Giannis but the results will probably be tough to argue against. :/
 
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TheFifthSet said:
I worry about this tbh. Shai imho is like a Peak Wade-level talent in a 100th percentile team situation. I think he will get an annoyingly significant winning boost if nothing changes. Don't think he's as good as Jokic or Giannis but the results will probably be tough to argue against. :/
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I mean, look what happened to Peak Nash-level talent when placed in his 100th percentile team over there in Oakland a decade ago.
 
Decent game from Wardell tonight has to be said.

I’m coming to terms with them winning it all. Steph as top 5 alltime might actually help LeBron’s GOAT case.
 
SAN ANTONIO -- San Antonio Spurs star center Victor Wembanyama will be sidelined for a few weeks due to a left calf strain, sources told ESPN's Shams Charania on Monday.

The Spurs are erring on the side of caution in bringing back the franchise cornerstone, who underwent an MRI on Sunday. A source told ESPN that Wembanyama will be re-evaluated in 2-3 weeks.
 
I forget if it was the year of the losing streak or after but I remember telling a coworker the Pistons actually have good young players. Still kinda surprised to see Duren make a big leap this year. Dude was always fouling out and was never really a guy who could get his own buckets. Watchin highlights of his 31 and 15 tonight and I'm impressed. Dude's got some handles and is knocking down midrange shots.

Was thinking to toss some money at him for most improved player, but it looks like he's the favorite at the moment at +300 on DK.
 
Are injuries the unintended consequence of the way the current NBA is played and officiated?

The relaxing of the rules on traveling & double dribbles and less defense played has lead to more scoring, but...

Less defense = faster and more offense and more running.
Legalizing the Harden 6-step dance and 7 gather steps = more running after picking up the dribble.

All this = more running and jumping and wear and tear on the legs = more injuries.

sports.yahoo.com

Despite LeBron James' imminent return, the NBA’s star crisis worsens

The league is dangerously close to having the distinction of having over half its stars in street clothes on any given night in the NBA.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
 
Hard to believe that many NBA players don't want to attempt a long, low percentage shot (aka "heave") at the end of a quarter or game because it will mostly likely lower their shooting percentage.

I kind of agree with Payton Pritchard. Anyone that does this is soft.

Imagine this scenario. The Kansas City Chiefs are down by 6 pts with 5 seconds left in the game and the ball at the 45 yard line. QB Mahomes leaves the game (to protect his stats) and the backup QB enter to throw the last second heave into the endzone.
 
And here you see why. Took 7 minutes of gametime to all but erase it, and that's with their best player on the bench.


The league's got nothing for these guys this year.
 
TheFifthSet said:
45 point swing in two quarters. Lets just call this title early.
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Too many close calls in their playoffs last year to see them as truly unbeatable. It is the early season NBA it barely matters. The only interest it holds is the excitement of seeing early results on how free agency moves panned out.
 
optic yellow said:
Too many close calls in their playoffs last year to see them as truly unbeatable. It is the early season NBA it barely matters. The only interest it holds is the excitement of seeing early results on how free agency moves panned out.
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Exaggerating a bit for colour, but I do maintain they're as close to unbeatable as you can expect a modern-day team to be. 16-1 and outscoring opponents by 16 a game without their second-best player, right after a 68-win season (where Chet was injured for much of it) capped off with a title? Teams like this don't come around often and last year may have been the time for the rest of the league to strike. I would favour them against the rest of the field heartily.
 
optic yellow said:
self-ban or actual ban tho? kral seems like the type that I remember from back in the day (read: 2000s) forums would get temporary banned by request.
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I've had the self-ban hammer a few times.

I'm not an expert on this thing, but I thought if an account was banned, then it says user profile unavailable or something similar. With Kralingen, I can still look at his profile, so perhaps it is a self-ban; I hope so. Might have got sick of my NBA 2k updates. lol
 
Kral got an automatic temp-ban until February for accumulating too many invisible warnings (so probably, his posts got reported by idiots too many times).
 
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TheFifthSet said:
Exaggerating a bit for colour, but I do maintain they're as close to unbeatable as you can expect a modern-day team to be. 16-1 and outscoring opponents by 16 a game without their second-best player, right after a 68-win season (where Chet was injured for much of it) capped off with a title? Teams like this don't come around often and last year may have been the time for the rest of the league to strike. I would favour them against the rest of the field heartily.
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Further, here’s how they stack up to some notable eventual dynasties at their outset:

Avg Age

2025 Thunder - 24.8
1980 Lakers - 26.2
2015 Warriors - 26.6
1991 Bulls - 26.9
1981 Celtics - 27
2012 Heat - 28.3
2000 Lakers - 29.2
1999 Spurs - 30.1

Team Salary Rank

2025 Thunder - 22nd
1991 Bulls - 22nd
2015 Warriors - 17th
2012 Heat - 8th
1999 Spurs - 7th
2000 Lakers - 3rd

Draft Capital

2025 Thunder - 11 1st’s and 10 2nd’s from ‘26-‘30

1999 Spurs - 4 1st’s and 8 2nd’s from ‘00-‘04

1991 Bulls - 5 1st’s and 6 2nd’s from ‘92-‘96

2000 Lakers - 4 1st’s and 4 2nd’s from ‘01-‘05

2015 Warriors - 4 1st’s and 4 2nd’s from ‘16-‘20

1981 Celtics - 5 1st’s and 2 2nd’s from ‘82-‘86

1980 Lakers - 4 1st’s and 2 2nd’s from ‘81-‘85

2012 Heat - 3 1sts and 2 2nd’s from ‘13-‘17


—

Since the start of ‘24, this team is 7-1 when Shai is injured (+8/100 when he’s on the bench in games he plays, both RS and playoffs), 29-1 when Williams is injured, 45-9 with Chet injured. They can literally lose both Chet and Williams and probably still cruise to 65 wins at this point. They can likely lose Shai for the entire year and still clinch the #1 seed.

The ‘17 Warriors had a brief window when they had a similar grip over the league in the short-term, but this is something beyond even that because these guys are much younger, roughly as cheap, the org have way more draft picks coming up the pipeline, and they maintain an 80% win clip seemingly regardless of who’s injured (the ‘17-‘19 Warriors, as a point of comparison, were only 23-17 when Steph was out with Durant in the lineup).

It’s comical. AnythingCanHappen, sure, but it’s hard to ignore what all this points to.
 
Damn, that sucks. I guess it does bring some joy to the heart to know it's not permanent, but still sucks.

The man sh1ts posts of gold. Let him squat and produce.
bat.jpg


I have Cleveland and Toronto on.
 
Gotta say, 2k invaded my mind again there with that closed-down shot. I thought, 'there is no way you're making this.' And so it was. Or should I say, wasn't.

No such problems for the Raptors at the moment. Made their last 7 shots to lead at halftime. 57-54
 
TheFifthSet said:
Snap predictions

OKC
Nugs
Wolves
Spurs
Houston
Mavs
GSW
Lakers

Cavs
Knicks
Magic
Bucks
Hawks
Sixers
Pistons
Heat

Playoffs: dunno but I bet on OKC. Too deep, less jitters, Caruso + a friendly defensive whistle, hard to beat.

MVP: by order of likelihood 1. Jokic 2. SGA 3. Giannis 4. Wemby

DPOY: Wemby

ROTY: Flagg
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Mavericks as the 6th seed…nasty work.
 
TheFifthSet said:
Further, here’s how they stack up to some notable eventual dynasties at their outset:

Avg Age

2025 Thunder - 24.8
1980 Lakers - 26.2
2015 Warriors - 26.6
1991 Bulls - 26.9
1981 Celtics - 27
2012 Heat - 28.3
2000 Lakers - 29.2
1999 Spurs - 30.1

Team Salary Rank

2025 Thunder - 22nd
1991 Bulls - 22nd
2015 Warriors - 17th
2012 Heat - 8th
1999 Spurs - 7th
2000 Lakers - 3rd

Draft Capital

2025 Thunder - 11 1st’s and 10 2nd’s from ‘26-‘30

1999 Spurs - 4 1st’s and 8 2nd’s from ‘00-‘04

1991 Bulls - 5 1st’s and 6 2nd’s from ‘92-‘96

2000 Lakers - 4 1st’s and 4 2nd’s from ‘01-‘05

2015 Warriors - 4 1st’s and 4 2nd’s from ‘16-‘20

1981 Celtics - 5 1st’s and 2 2nd’s from ‘82-‘86

1980 Lakers - 4 1st’s and 2 2nd’s from ‘81-‘85

2012 Heat - 3 1sts and 2 2nd’s from ‘13-‘17


—

Since the start of ‘24, this team is 7-1 when Shai is injured (+8/100 when he’s on the bench in games he plays, both RS and playoffs), 29-1 when Williams is injured, 45-9 with Chet injured. They can literally lose both Chet and Williams and probably still cruise to 65 wins at this point. They can likely lose Shai for the entire year and still clinch the #1 seed.

The ‘17 Warriors had a brief window when they had a similar grip over the league in the short-term, but this is something beyond even that because these guys are much younger, roughly as cheap, the org have way more draft picks coming up the pipeline, and they maintain an 80% win clip seemingly regardless of who’s injured (the ‘17-‘19 Warriors, as a point of comparison, were only 23-17 when Steph was out with Durant in the lineup).

It’s comical. AnythingCanHappen, sure, but it’s hard to ignore what all this points to.
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But without Shai, in the playoffs they'll get cooked because he is their most reliable scorer and the one that draws the most attention from the defense.
 
onehandbh said:
But without Shai, in the playoffs they'll get cooked because he is their most reliable scorer and the one that draws the most attention from the defense.
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oh yah, I'm just talking about the regular season. However with a GOAT-level defence I think even a Shai-less Thunder would be contenders. But it'd be ugly.
 
TheFifthSet said:
Had pangs of bullishness with the Pistons but didn't pull the trigger. Bucks I still think can be a 5th-6th seed if Giannis stays healthy. Raps I definitely underrated, Heat not sold on yet
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Very curious about Toronto haven’t really watched any Raptor basketball would like to know what the dynamic is like and how they’re playing. Heat offense :love:
 
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