Talker
Hall of Fame
Rafael Nadal: 2 to 1
Pros - The relatively slow, high-bouncing surface suits Nadal's game perfectly (especially given the world No. 1's new-and-improved aggressive tactics). In his last healthy visit Down Under, Nadal won the title by defeating Roger Federer despite playing the longest match in tournament history just two days earlier against Fernando Verdasco.
Cons - Not that anyone thought Nadal's 2009 triumph in Melbourne was a fluke, but he put any of those fluke questions to rest by winning another hard-court Grand Slam at this year's U.S. Open. Still, the Spaniard's hard-court prowess is up for debate. He struggled on fast surfaces after his win in New York and even though he reached the World Tour Finals title match, he got run over by Federer. Nadal also won't have fond memories of his last trip to Melbourne, when he was getting blown off the court by Andy Murray in the quarters before retiring with knee pain.
Roger Federer: 5 to 2
Pros - Federer has never dominated the Australian Open like he has Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, but he's not too shabby Down Under. His lifetime record is 54-7 and he has won the whole thing four times, including in 2010. The world No. 2 is also coming off a big win at the World Tour Finals, scoring a crucial confidence-booster over Nadal in the process.
Cons - While Federer had some great moments this year and heated up at the end, it still was not one of his better seasons. Nadal is not only No. 1 in the world, but it's not even that close. Federer is becoming more and more of a momentum player; when he is hot, he's on fire, but when he's cold, he can't find the court. Will the offseason put out his hot streak?
Andy Murray: 5 to 1
Pros - Murray went all the way to the Aussie Open final this year, steamrolling Nadal in the process. The Scot still has not gotten over the hump at a Grand Slam, but the experience of losing to Federer twice in title matches (also at the 2008 U.S. Open) will only help the next time he makes a final. His last match of 2010, against Nadal in London, was arguably the match of the year.
Cons - After losing in the Aussie final, Murray did not come close to making another one in 2010. He had a decent run at Wimbledon but got destroyed by Nadal. Another early loss at the U.S. Open was especially dismal for Murray. He recovered for a solid showing during the fall season, but the Grand Slam questions will be running rampant in Melbourne.
Novak Djokovic: 7 to 1
Pros - Djokovic is coming off one of the biggest moments of his career--winning the Davis Cup with Serbia. He did not get the glory of clinching the final rubber, but he won every single match he played in 2010. World Tour Finals losses to Nadal and Federer notwithstanding, Djokovic was in outstanding form throughout the fall swing.
Cons - In an otherwise stellar year, Djokovic was pretty much atrocious in Grand Slams until the U.S. Open. He suffered upsets at the hands of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jurgen Melzer, and Tomas Berdych. The world No. 3's breathing issues were not much of a factor during the second half of 2010, but the summer heat of Australia could bring them back to the fore.
Other odds
Juan Martin Del Potro: 12 to 1
Robin Soderling: 18 to 1
Tomas Berdych: 25 to 1
David Nalbandian: 25 to 1
Pros - The relatively slow, high-bouncing surface suits Nadal's game perfectly (especially given the world No. 1's new-and-improved aggressive tactics). In his last healthy visit Down Under, Nadal won the title by defeating Roger Federer despite playing the longest match in tournament history just two days earlier against Fernando Verdasco.
Cons - Not that anyone thought Nadal's 2009 triumph in Melbourne was a fluke, but he put any of those fluke questions to rest by winning another hard-court Grand Slam at this year's U.S. Open. Still, the Spaniard's hard-court prowess is up for debate. He struggled on fast surfaces after his win in New York and even though he reached the World Tour Finals title match, he got run over by Federer. Nadal also won't have fond memories of his last trip to Melbourne, when he was getting blown off the court by Andy Murray in the quarters before retiring with knee pain.
Roger Federer: 5 to 2
Pros - Federer has never dominated the Australian Open like he has Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, but he's not too shabby Down Under. His lifetime record is 54-7 and he has won the whole thing four times, including in 2010. The world No. 2 is also coming off a big win at the World Tour Finals, scoring a crucial confidence-booster over Nadal in the process.
Cons - While Federer had some great moments this year and heated up at the end, it still was not one of his better seasons. Nadal is not only No. 1 in the world, but it's not even that close. Federer is becoming more and more of a momentum player; when he is hot, he's on fire, but when he's cold, he can't find the court. Will the offseason put out his hot streak?
Andy Murray: 5 to 1
Pros - Murray went all the way to the Aussie Open final this year, steamrolling Nadal in the process. The Scot still has not gotten over the hump at a Grand Slam, but the experience of losing to Federer twice in title matches (also at the 2008 U.S. Open) will only help the next time he makes a final. His last match of 2010, against Nadal in London, was arguably the match of the year.
Cons - After losing in the Aussie final, Murray did not come close to making another one in 2010. He had a decent run at Wimbledon but got destroyed by Nadal. Another early loss at the U.S. Open was especially dismal for Murray. He recovered for a solid showing during the fall season, but the Grand Slam questions will be running rampant in Melbourne.
Novak Djokovic: 7 to 1
Pros - Djokovic is coming off one of the biggest moments of his career--winning the Davis Cup with Serbia. He did not get the glory of clinching the final rubber, but he won every single match he played in 2010. World Tour Finals losses to Nadal and Federer notwithstanding, Djokovic was in outstanding form throughout the fall swing.
Cons - In an otherwise stellar year, Djokovic was pretty much atrocious in Grand Slams until the U.S. Open. He suffered upsets at the hands of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jurgen Melzer, and Tomas Berdych. The world No. 3's breathing issues were not much of a factor during the second half of 2010, but the summer heat of Australia could bring them back to the fore.
Other odds
Juan Martin Del Potro: 12 to 1
Robin Soderling: 18 to 1
Tomas Berdych: 25 to 1
David Nalbandian: 25 to 1
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