The beginning of the end for Novak?

jm1980

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
As a Djokovic fan, the start of the year has been quite worrying in spite of the results. I am seeing from Novak:

  • Choking at critical junctures, especially when serving for or to stay in the set
  • Forehand is still very suspect, breaking down under pressure
  • Backhand no longer a weapon, just an adequate shot
  • Alarming number of double faults creeping back in
  • Mindless attacking of the net with only a marginally improved net game. Net result is negative
  • Smashes still lol-worthy
  • STILL getting irritated at the crowd and generally behaving poorly on court
It really looks like Novak is winning matches out of sheer momentum, but mentally he is not there at all. Sometimes you see that look in his eyes that deep down he doesn't want to be playing top level tennis, but rather be doing something else. Like, fishing in Mallorca or skiing in Finland.

A year ago he wasn't looking good either, but at least he showed encouraging signs playing a great match against Nadal in the Miami final. I feel there are no positive takeaways this season for him.
Sure he's won titles but he's had very strange dips in concentration his opponents couldn't capitalize on. I fear the Humble and the maturing Coric/Kyrgios generation will pounce on such opportunities, and that doesn't bode well going forward.
 
I think it's possible that his winning is partially the product of a tremendously weak tour at the moment.

But he's playing just fine, look at the first set against Federer at IW.
That was terrific tennis from Novak.
 
Firstservingman said:
But he's playing just fine, look at the first set against Federer at IW.
That was terrific tennis from Novak.
Click to expand...

That's part of it. It seems like he can play great tennis for patches of the match, like the aforementioned first set against Fed, the first sets against Berdych in Dubai and Klizan in Miami. But then suddenly and inexplicably he goes on a mental walkabout and loses the set.

He got away with it so far, but such a lapse will be fatal against the Humble.
 
Mate, you deserve one big Hahahaha on this one. Djokovic is currently leading the rest of the tour with a double margin, making a record number of 6-0 and 6-1 sets......
 
I think you are wrong.

I agree he looked mortal this week, he's been very shaky, but no worries. He has played so much tennis and won so much since the beginning of the year,you have to understand.

It's strong to still win such big titles when you know he has looked way better before and that he can produce better level of play. That's clear statement how good he really is.
 
The end of the beginning for Novak. He just entered his prime.
 
jm1980 said:
That's part of it. It seems like he can play great tennis for patches of the match, like the aforementioned first set against Fed, the first sets against Berdych in Dubai and Klizan in Miami. But then suddenly and inexplicably he goes on a mental walkabout and loses the set.

He got away with it so far, but such a lapse will be fatal against the Humble.
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Why would be fatal against the humble?! Do expect him to win 6-0 6-0 all the time?! He has 10 wins in his last 11 matches with Murray, he is beating Federer in all the final matches and Nadal cant even reach him in the draw...
 
K7G.gif
 
Forehand is still very suspect, breaking down under pressure
Backhand no longer a weapon, just an adequate shot
Alarming number of double faults creeping back in
Mindless attacking of the net with only a marginally improved net game. Net result is negative
Smashes still lol-worthy
Click to expand...

Can't backhand.
Can't forehand.
No net skills.
Can't serve.

HAHAHA!
 
Bukmeikara said:
Mate, you deserve one big Hahahaha on this one. Djokovic is currently leading the rest of the tour with a double margin, making a record number of 6-0 and 6-1 sets......
Click to expand...

After which he goes and loses the next set to lesser players :???:

Bukmeikara said:
Why would be fatal against the humble?! Do expect him to win 6-0 6-0 all the time?! He has 10 wins in his last 11 matches with Murray, he is beating Federer in all the final matches and Nadal cant even reach him in the draw...
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He lost to Federer in the Dubai final, featuring an epic choke from 40-0 up to a break of serve...

This will change come clay season. Some wins over Djokovic will be just what Nadal needs to regain his confidence
 
When you can still win big events while not always playing your best, that just shows how far ahead you are of everyone else. He has looked subpar this week, but when push came to shove, he was in full lockdown mode and didn't give an inch...that is why he won as much as he has....now imagine what will happen if he starts playing better.
 
Keep in mind that he's going to be defending everything under the sun later in the year.
 
Firstservingman said:
Keep in mind that he's going to be defending everything under the sun later in the year.
Click to expand...

Somebody is going to have to enter Multiverse Mode if they want to stop Djokovic being #1 this year. Even if he doesn't win any of the 3 remaining Slams, he's so consistent and is going to have very few early exits.

Statement year from Djokovic incoming, perhaps.
 
jm1980 said:
As a Djokovic fan, the start of the year has been quite worrying in spite of the results. I am seeing from Novak:

  • Choking at critical junctures, especially when serving for or to stay in the set
  • Forehand is still very suspect, breaking down under pressure
  • Backhand no longer a weapon, just an adequate shot
  • Alarming number of double faults creeping back in
  • Mindless attacking of the net with only a marginally improved net game. Net result is negative
  • Smashes still lol-worthy
  • STILL getting irritated at the crowd and generally behaving poorly on court
It really looks like Novak is winning matches out of sheer momentum, but mentally he is not there at all. Sometimes you see that look in his eyes that deep down he doesn't want to be playing top level tennis, but rather be doing something else. Like, fishing in Mallorca or skiing in Finland.

A year ago he wasn't looking good either, but at least he showed encouraging signs playing a great match against Nadal in the Miami final. I feel there are no positive takeaways this season for him.
Sure he's won titles but he's had very strange dips in concentration his opponents couldn't capitalize on. I fear the Humble and the maturing Coric/Kyrgios generation will pounce on such opportunities, and that doesn't bode well going forward.
Click to expand...


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jm1980 said:
As a Djokovic fan, the start of the year has been quite worrying in spite of the results. I am seeing from Novak:

  • Choking at critical junctures, especially when serving for or to stay in the set
  • Forehand is still very suspect, breaking down under pressure
  • Backhand no longer a weapon, just an adequate shot
  • Alarming number of double faults creeping back in
  • Mindless attacking of the net with only a marginally improved net game. Net result is negative
  • Smashes still lol-worthy
  • STILL getting irritated at the crowd and generally behaving poorly on court
It really looks like Novak is winning matches out of sheer momentum, but mentally he is not there at all. Sometimes you see that look in his eyes that deep down he doesn't want to be playing top level tennis, but rather be doing something else. Like, fishing in Mallorca or skiing in Finland.

A year ago he wasn't looking good either, but at least he showed encouraging signs playing a great match against Nadal in the Miami final. I feel there are no positive takeaways this season for him.
Sure he's won titles but he's had very strange dips in concentration his opponents couldn't capitalize on. I fear the Humble and the maturing Coric/Kyrgios generation will pounce on such opportunities, and that doesn't bode well going forward.
Click to expand...


I think that you are trolling,because normal person cant be this stupid
 
jm1980 said:
After which he goes and loses the next set to lesser players :???:



He lost to Federer in the Dubai final, featuring an epic choke from 40-0 up to a break of serve...

This will change come clay season. Some wins over Djokovic will be just what Nadal needs to regain his confidence
Click to expand...

Еveryone is a lesser player compared to Djokovic but does that make them journeymans, offcource not. He lost a set to Klizan and Dolgopolov, both of them very dangerous players. He is entering the clay with the only threat being the shadow of Nadal.
 
You deserve to be tickled with a feather for writing such a load of baloney. You are more of a Nervous Nelly than our good friend Djoko11.
 
Jumping the gun ain't enough to explain what is going on here :lol:

Seriously, I advocate patience, what will come will come, but signs certainly seem positive for Djokovic as of now. Let's not pretend that he dusted the competition in the last few years either, there's a reason why he has had 1-slam years for the past 3 years.
 
Djokovic is transitioning his game to the latter part of his career. He's risking his FH a lot. He's serving much better and more aggressively but occasionally that'll lead to double faults. His Backhand is as good as it was post and pre 2011.

Also, since he's way more aggressive than he was in the past. He wont be content in rallying players to the death. Thus, he's moving up to the net to finish points early at the risky of losing the point but that's what he needs to do if he wants to end his career like Federer.

Him being on his comfort zone would only lead him to an early decline. Btw, that's what Murray needs to do as well. Risk losing 2nd rounds to less talented players but what's the point of a two time slam winner going deep at tournaments but then losing to Djokovic or other members of the big4???

PS: Didn't watch the game yet but his smashes and volleys improved by a lot. He wasn't missing smashes at all. This game was played @ 2pm and he usually doesn't smash well "under the sun", proverbially speaking.

Anyways, all the minor tweaks in his game leads to multiples 6-0 and 6-1 against great players, when it all clicks together.

TL;DR: Djokovic is changing his game and he still dominating the tour. I'd be
 
AS to the OP, his service is way better than the past.

His ground strokes was bad this week, but what you can expect after 4 continuous weeks of tennis ?

He does not need to be at 2011 level this year. The tour is relatively weaker , so if he sustains this level he is going to have a phenomenal year.
 
jm1980 said:
As a Djokovic fan, the start of the year has been quite worrying in spite of the results. I am seeing from Novak:

  • Choking at critical junctures, especially when serving for or to stay in the set
  • Forehand is still very suspect, breaking down under pressure
  • Backhand no longer a weapon, just an adequate shot
  • Alarming number of double faults creeping back in
  • Mindless attacking of the net with only a marginally improved net game. Net result is negative
  • Smashes still lol-worthy
  • STILL getting irritated at the crowd and generally behaving poorly on court
It really looks like Novak is winning matches out of sheer momentum, but mentally he is not there at all. Sometimes you see that look in his eyes that deep down he doesn't want to be playing top level tennis, but rather be doing something else. Like, fishing in Mallorca or skiing in Finland.

A year ago he wasn't looking good either, but at least he showed encouraging signs playing a great match against Nadal in the Miami final. I feel there are no positive takeaways this season for him.
Sure he's won titles but he's had very strange dips in concentration his opponents couldn't capitalize on. I fear the Humble and the maturing Coric/Kyrgios generation will pounce on such opportunities, and that doesn't bode well going forward.
Click to expand...

Yes a valid concern about his execution, but outcome-wise, it's not just yet the time for anyone on the tour to be able to capture the opportunities, as you mentioned...
 
jm1980 said:
After which he goes and loses the next set to lesser players :???:



He lost to Federer in the Dubai final, featuring an epic choke from 40-0 up to a break of serve...

This will change come clay season. Some wins over Djokovic will be just what Nadal needs to regain his confidence
Click to expand...


People mentioning IW's finals but for me that Dubai final was Djokovic's best match this year. His semis against the Bird were already great tennis. He was pummeling the ball left and right and moving to the Net to finish points and so he did against Federer in the final. He played Federer's game and he kept it very close and IMHO he should've won that match. But Federer GOAT'd on his many BPs against his serve and on his two return BPs.

I'm very happy that he's leaving his comfort zone and of course that'll lead to "chokes" as you put it.
 
Djokovic has now recorded seven straight wins over two other members of the big four, as part of their rivalry.

He has now gone 7-0 against Nadal and Murray.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
In all seriousness, what happened today with Murray physically; I can never imagine that happening with Hewitt.
Click to expand...

Indeed. Murray's fitness seems to have deteriorated since the back surgery to a quite an extreme degree. That's 3 recent matches with Djokovic where fitness has cost him. A stark contrast to how he won the USO in 2012 and the AO that same year where he went the distance with Djokovic over 5 hours.
 
NatF said:
Indeed. Murray's fitness seems to have deteriorated since the back surgery to a quite an extreme degree. That's 3 recent matches with Djokovic where fitness has cost him. A stark contrast to how he won the USO in 2012 and the AO that same year where he went the distance with Djokovic over 5 hours.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

What I want to know is: why?
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
Exactly.

What I want to know is: why?
Click to expand...

Yes, I'm far from an expert on these things but I thought that intense training block in the off-season Murray underwent would have been enough to at least get him close to his pre-surgery fitness levels.

His peak game seems to be there with the best again, but he can't sustain it anymore.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
Exactly.

What I want to know is: why?
Click to expand...

I think the big issue is that his strokes are less efficient than his peers', so he expends more energy in the same time, which results in him being tired out more despite not doing more. Djokovic is a fitness freak, for Murray to keep up physically with Djokovic with his game, he would have to be even fitter than Djokovic and I think that's asking for too much.
 
Steve0904 said:
Well, one thing is for sure. He wasn't mentally burned out. :lol:
Click to expand...

Sustaining this up till the FO-WIM will be very difficult for Novak. Something's got to give IMO. He needs to take a break to recharge, he's a new dad as well.
 
NatF said:
Yes, I'm far from an expert on these things but I thought that intense training block in the off-season Murray underwent would have been enough to at least get him close to his pre-surgery fitness levels.

His peak game seems to be there with the best again, but he can't sustain it anymore.
Click to expand...

Yep, exactly it. I did have it in the back of my mind that Murray might fatigue if it went long and into a decider but ended up ignoring that concern. His game is very good right now as was evidenced against Berdych and then Djokovic in Miami, but damn, he just can't last and it's a serious issue. It's a recurring problem now that I assumed would've been rectified by now.

It's been a long time since his back surgery.
 
SpinToWin said:
I think the big issue is that his strokes are less efficient than his peers', so he expends more energy in the same time, which results in him being tired out more despite not doing more. Djokovic is a fitness freak, for Murray to keep up physically with Djokovic with his game, he would have to be even fitter than Djokovic and I think that's asking for too much.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with you that generally his game is less efficient than the top dogs, but it doesn't explain why he could show very good endurance before the surgery and mediocre endurance after, even up till April 2015.

Now, might one suggest that there are subtle differences in how Murray has to approach his movement and groundstrokes post-surgery that make it more difficult for him to sustain his game at the highest level?
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
I don't disagree with you that generally his game is less efficient, but it doesn't explain why he could show very good endurance before the surgery and mediocre endurance after, even up till April 2015.

Now, might one suggest that there are subtle differences in how Murray has to approach his movement and groundstrokes post-surgery that make it more difficult for him to sustain his game at the highest level?
Click to expand...

I think the main problem is that he is past his physical peak now and as a result, what used to be no problem in terms of fitness now becomes an issue. His play style and technique merely emphasizes the problem, unlike it is for Djokovic or even Federer. Djokovic has very fluid and efficient technique off both wings, which is something many people do not see. Murray's technique, especially on his forehand, requires significantly more effort, particularly conscious rotation of the torso and pushing off of the outer foot, which is why you will see that he is more tired than Djokovic after a long rally.
 
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Nathaniel_Near said:
Yep, exactly it. I did have it in the back of my mind that Murray might fatigue if it went long and into a decider but ended up ignoring that concern. His game is very good right now as was evidenced against Berdych and then Djokovic in Miami, but damn, he just can't last and it's a serious issue. It's a recurring problem now that I assumed would've been rectified by now.

It's been a long time since his back surgery.
Click to expand...

Hopes for a strong Murray clay season might have been dealt a blow...

I'm not sure how I feel about the surgery excuse, for some players injury (much less surgery) seems like a valid reason for why they failed to re-scale previous heights. Perhaps because the surgery was relatively minor and the serve has not been the pillar of Murray's game it is less reasonable?
 
SpinToWin said:
I think the main problem is that he is past his physical peak now and as a result, what used to be no problem in terms of fitness now becomes an issue. His play style and technique merely emphasizes the problem, unlike it is for Djokovic or even Federer. Djokovic has very fluid and efficient technique off both wings, which is something many people do not see.
Click to expand...

Yes, it's largely ignored how Djokovic's and Federer's game on the whole are not just slightly more efficient than Murray's, but vastly so.

I agree that Murray is probably past his physical peak but I think that explanation is too simplistic to explain the whole issue. The very clear demarcation point is the surgery. He hasn't come remotely close to reaching his former levels of endurance since, looking gassed in numerous 3-setters including early rounds against lower ranked opposition ever since that surgery. Other contributing factors could be his different team, and maybe a lack of commitment and dedication compared to when he was still a slamless contender, chasing the Wimbledon title. The contrast is too stark IMO to be easily explained away. At the same time, I'm surprised Murray is ranked #3 right now. I was predicting 2-3 years ago that his body would break down by about this stage due to his play style and yet he's still here ranked #3 and reaching Slam finals. What I expected was for injuries to curtail his career, and not him being injury free as he currently is, but unable to last on a very regular basis.

NatF said:
Hopes for a strong Murray clay season might have been dealt a blow...

I'm not sure how I feel about the surgery excuse, for some players injury (much less surgery) seems like a valid reason for why they failed to re-scale previous heights. Perhaps because the surgery was relatively minor and the serve has not been the pillar of Murray's game it is less reasonable?
Click to expand...

I think it's clear that the surgery is a clear sort of turning point but it makes very little sense to me. If he was physically struggling through injuries or recurring back problems and his body continued to break down that would make a lot of sense to me, but that isn't the case. The transformation is stark and hasn't improved in 18 months or so. I agree in essence with Spin's main point that Murray's inefficient style was always going to be hard to maintain but it doesn't satisfy me as a complete answer that explains what after all is a sudden and stark contrast in basic endurance levels.

SpinToWin said:
Murray's technique, especially on his forehand, requires significantly more effort, particularly conscious rotation of the torso and pushing off of the outer foot, which is why you will see that he is more tired than Djokovic after a long rally.
Click to expand...

Yep, good spot.

To me, Djokovic appears to be the most efficient player on tour overall.
 
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NatF said:
Sustaining this up till the FO-WIM will be very difficult for Novak. Something's got to give IMO. He needs to take a break to recharge, he's a new dad as well.
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I agree, but given the threads of the past week or so, it is safe to say he wasn't mentally burned out at this tournament in particular.
 
Steve0904 said:
I agree, but given the threads of the past week or so, it is safe to say he wasn't mentally burned out at this tournament in particular.
Click to expand...

The signs of it were certainly there IMO but they were minor and he shook them off easily, and it's to be expected that winning IW and Miami B2B might end up making a player look a little more weary in the second tournament than the first. I still think he's on an unholy rampage right now and needs to consider how he approaches the clay court season carefully—or what some see as tremors might turn into a full blown earthquake.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
I think it's clear that the surgery is a clear sort of turning point but it makes very little sense to me. If he was physically struggling through injuries or recurring back problems and his body continued to break down that would make a lot of sense to me, but that isn't the case. The transformation is stark and hasn't improved in 18 months or so. I agree in essence with Spin's main point that Murray's inefficient style was always going to be hard to maintain but it doesn't satisfy me as a complete answer that explains what after all is a sudden and stark contrast in basic endurance levels.
Click to expand...

Yeah it hardly seems reasonable to argue his less efficient style has caused a sudden decline in endurance. The match today wasn't even 3 hours let alone 5 like at the AO in 2012.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
Yes, it's largely ignored how Djokovic's and Federer's game on the whole are not just slightly more efficient than Murray's, but vastly so.

I agree that Murray is probably past his physical peak but I think that explanation is too simplistic to explain the whole issue. The very clear demarcation point is the surgery. He hasn't come remotely close to reaching his former levels of endurance since, looking gassed in numerous 3-setters including early rounds against lower ranked opposition ever since that surgery. Other contributing factors could be his different team, and maybe a lack of commitment and dedication compared to when he was still a slamless contender, chasing the Wimbledon title. The contrast is too stark IMO to be easily explained away. At the same time, I'm surprised Murray is ranked #3 right now. I was predicting 2-3 years ago that his body would break down by about this stage due to his play style and yet he's still here ranked #3 and reaching Slam finals. What I expected was for injuries to curtail his career, and not him being injury free as he currently is, but unable to last on a very regular basis.

I think it's clear that the surgery is a clear sort of turning point but it makes very little sense to me. If he was physically struggling through injuries or recurring back problems and his body continued to break down that would make a lot of sense to me, but that isn't the case. The transformation is stark and hasn't improved in 18 months or so. I agree in essence with Spin's main point that Murray's inefficient style was always going to be hard to maintain but it doesn't satisfy me as a complete answer that explains what after all is a sudden and stark contrast in basic endurance levels.

Yep, good spot.
To me, Djokovic appears to be the most efficient player on tour overall.
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I can see what you mean… Is the surgery merely an arbitrary occurrence, which happened to fall in the time of Murray's physical decline and effectively has no further implications? Or is it (one of) the reason(s) for his strange physical decline? Essentially that seems to be what you're asking and it's a very tough question to answer. Somehow I doubt that Murray himself knows.

All I do know is that Murray needs to gradually change his playing style if he intends to make headlines at the top of the game for the next few years.

Edit: We mustn't forget that Murray essentially lost a year due to that injury, so it is not sudden, rather he just managed to get back to his current physical peak thanks to having the time to prepare in the off season. Perhaps the signs would have been more gradual if he had had a normal 2014? I know, this is just speculation…
 
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Not sure if this is serious or trolling, but nevertheless, two points are for sure valid.

His overhead is still a crapshoot. And, the fact that it irritates him so much when the crowd favors his opponent.

Otherwise, can someone tell me how this year is different? The stretch of slow hard courts to end and begin the season is the best stretch for him. It always is. Clay is probably his second best in terms of advantage over the field...only Nadal has prevented him from dominating it just as thoroughly as slow hard courts.

After that, there's no indication that the quicker surfaces will suddenly be easier for him to win. He could win every major left, or he may once again finish with a single major.

Every year the Novak is unstoppable hype peaks around this time. I suppose it's just coincidence that it is at the end of a 5-month stretch that consists primarily of slower hard courts, which just happens to be his best surface.
 
Well he literally cannot sustain his current model. Changes are required. This isn't some revelation from the match today but rather a final straw, as it's just a continuation of what has been clearly the case now for the last 18 months: Murray has endurance problems.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
The signs of it were certainly there IMO but they were minor and he shook them off easily, and it's to be expected that winning IW and Miami B2B might end up making a player look a little more weary in the second tournament than the first. I still think he's on an unholy rampage right now and needs to consider how he approaches the clay court season carefully—or what some see as tremors might turn into a full blown earthquake.
Click to expand...

And I agree. Scheduling is VERY important for him right now. That said, in 2006 for example, Federer made 16 finals out of 17 tournaments and won 12 of them, some of them being best of 5 sets in the finals, so I don't see any issues for Djokovic if he schedules accordingly.

As you say, he's in his prime right now, so if he did feel any fatigue he shook it off like someone at that age should, being a pro tennis player and all.
 
Novak might have a more efficient game than Federer because of the manner in which he moves and that him having no obvious bias on either wing allows him to hold a more neutral court position. Perhaps Federer's game is more efficient but he can't last like Novak does because he's older and more worn. However, Federer can sometimes lose his footwork deep into matches where as Nole maintains his with his sliding style, which eliminates the need for some old school footwork at times (small busy steps—precise but tiring), and reinvents the wheel. On grass, Federer looks tremendously balanced and efficient—even today. Generally, many of us underrate the fantastic athleticism required to pull off Federer's busy footwork, combined with short steps, long strides, while maintaining almost perfect balance and yet producing an efficient game. How efficient is another question, and one might wonder about his deciding 5th-set record in this instance.
 
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