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Hall of Fame
Some people believe that Djokovic and Nadal can dominate for a few more years. Some people deride the young guns. Some people call this a weak era. I’d say these are all now questionable. 2017-2019 were relatively weak years, but 2020 finally saw a player in his 20s win a major and the current top 8 players in the world who are not the Big 3 have mostly come into their own: #3 Dominic Thiem, #4 Daniil Medvedev, #6 Stefanos Tsitsipas, #7 Alexander Zverev, and #8 Andrey Rublev. (Granted Thiem benefited from Djokovic defaulting.) Djokovic and Nadal at ages 33 and 34 would have been considered ancient in tennis 10 years ago and even though they and Federer have aged gracefully, they can’t fight time forever. Federer at 39 will struggle to win tournaments going forward and his chances at another major are extreme longshots at best. Federer probably won’t win 6 more to tie Connors’ 109 tournament-wins record unless he starts playing a lot of 250s.
This younger group of players have already surpassed Federer and are approaching parity with Djokovic and Nadal even if they are not quite there yet. This is most apparent in the year-end championship won by Tsitsipas last year when neither Djokovic nor Nadal made it out of the round robin round and this year’s version is currently being led by Medvedev and Thiem, who beat Djokovic and Nadal, respectively. Djokovic and Nadal may come back and win the championship, but clearly this field is presenting a difficult challenge for them.
Here are some head-to-head stats to provide context. Note that this is before the Nadal-Tsitsipas match later today. Nadal is still doing very well against these younger players but Djokovic is handling that field slightly less well than Thiem himself is. Federer is handling that field about as well as Tsitsipas is, both with losing records against the field. As the Big 3 continue to age, these younger players will beat them more and more regularly and at least 2 or 3 of them will become regular major winners. That's even before someone like Sinner matures into another big threat.
This younger group of players have already surpassed Federer and are approaching parity with Djokovic and Nadal even if they are not quite there yet. This is most apparent in the year-end championship won by Tsitsipas last year when neither Djokovic nor Nadal made it out of the round robin round and this year’s version is currently being led by Medvedev and Thiem, who beat Djokovic and Nadal, respectively. Djokovic and Nadal may come back and win the championship, but clearly this field is presenting a difficult challenge for them.
Here are some head-to-head stats to provide context. Note that this is before the Nadal-Tsitsipas match later today. Nadal is still doing very well against these younger players but Djokovic is handling that field slightly less well than Thiem himself is. Federer is handling that field about as well as Tsitsipas is, both with losing records against the field. As the Big 3 continue to age, these younger players will beat them more and more regularly and at least 2 or 3 of them will become regular major winners. That's even before someone like Sinner matures into another big threat.
