The Big 3 at and after age 30: Revisited

[RS]

The funny thing about Nadal fans is I don’t think any of them actually think he’s GOAT. They don’t sound like they’ve convinced even themselves when they try to make arguments for it

So you think Alcaraz is comparable to peak Djoker lol?

We certainly do

Not as much as Fed fans they will get in nitty and gritty the most

 

[SonnyT]

The funny thing about Nadal fans is I don’t think any of them actually think he’s GOAT. They don’t sound like they’ve convinced even themselves when they try to make arguments for it

So you think Alcaraz is comparable to peak Djoker lol?

Why not? At his age, Djokovic had 0 slams.

 

[PMChambers]

You may be right when you put it this way. Djokovic is a zen master as far as his body is concerned.

Unlike Federer, he's not as reliant on speed to hide his BH. Watch Fed 17 and he's hitting forehands over 70-75% of the court. If weak reply he's happy to run around BH hitting FH by side line.
Djokovic is more 55% FH coverage. Plus he's got that killer BH DTL.
Djok does not need to move as well to cover the same area. Or in reality, he moves as well, or better than Federer, and thus becomes an offensive wall.
Preparation time is all about offense. More time more body and weight transfer.

 

[CoolCoolCool]

Kinda on the fence about 2017 Rog vs 2023 Djoker. Rog with his IW/Miami form would win imo, but based on what we saw at AO, I'm not sure. I think that would be a tough match for both.

 

[tennis_error]

Continued:

2015 vs. 2020 vs. 2021:
AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
W: Federer
USO: Federer
YEC: Federer

Explanation: Looks like a clean victory for Fed here but this is one instance where this representation is a little misleading. I would certainly take 2015 Fed over 2021 Djokovic at Wimbledon and the US Open, but those margins are narrower compared to Djokovic's lead over Federer in the first two Slams, although Nadal still trumps Novak at RG.

Wimbledon might be a controversial pick but you have to realize that 2015 Djokovic is basically Djokovic's top level at Wimbledon. Serve was great, baseline game was super sharp, and this was one of his personal best returning performances imo. Still, Fed ran it basically dead even for two sets and a half on the back of some good serving (though not as good as 2014) and some very clutch play at times. I think he should definitely be favored in level over 2021 Djokovic who played a bad first set and needed more time to get into his groove... and not to mention he also returned worse than in 2015, which will hurt him. The only argument I could see for him here is one based on stamina. Fed did start to run out of gas in the tail end of the third set while 2021 Djokovic had no such issue, but, again, Fed was keeping it level with peak grass Djokovic for a good long time so it's understandable.

I'd also give the YEC to Fed. Certainly a forgettable performance in the final but I don't think Fed would have lost to someone on the caliber of 2021 Zverev.
Nadal at this point is starting to fade away from the other two.

2016 vs. 2021 vs. 2022:
AO: Federer (*)
RG: Nadal
W: Djokovic
USO: ---
YEC: Djokovic

Explanation: This year is pretty ugly because I wouldn't exactly classify any of these guys as being particularly in form, plus all three skipped the US Open at the same point in their careers so we have no data there.

The whole deportgate thing obviously looms over the AO result but in the absence of data from Djokovic, I'd have to go with Federer. Fed didn't play a very good match in the 2016 semifinal, but Djokovic basically hit god mode there so he was made to look a lot worse than he actually was. We should be praising him for taking a set honestly. I would personally take this over losing to Tsitsipas in the QF.

RG will be a closer contest because 2021 Nadal and 2022 Djokovic weren't really in form. I do rate the 2021 match higher though, so that has a hand in my choice of Nadal here.

Wimbledon is definitely Djokovic. Fed led an inspired charge to the semifinals... but he was injured. Djokovic was in iffy shape going into the final but I thought the final itself was actually a good performance; there's not as many holes to poke here as you would with 2019 or 2021, plus the returning was legitimately impressive by a general standard, not just for someone in his mid-30's.

Djokovic also gets the YEC since the other two are AWOL.

2017 vs. 2022 vs. 2023:
AO: Federer
RG: Nadal / Djokovic
W: Federer
USO: Djokovic
YEC: Djokovic

Explanation: Like with Djokovic's 2021 season, a little deceptive because on aggregate, I think Djokovic had the best season, but this doesn't materialize in the Slams because Fed has enough to edge him at the AO and Wimbledon (while doing little at RG and W) while Nadal can stop him at RG (while doing little damage at AO, W, or USO).

There are a couple of controversial picks here. The first is the AO. Personally, I think 2017 Fed just hit higher highs in overall level (particularly in the fifth set of the final), took down much stronger opponents, and wasn't carrying an injury. For these reasons, I pick him here over 2023 Djokovic. And sorry guys but I just do not rate AO 2022 Nadal at all. I think he could do some damage to Fed or Djokovic but honestly that was one of the lowest level Slam victories I think I've ever seen.

The second one is RG. I think we can agree that Nadal's level at RG 2022 was the lowest of all the RGs he's won. Personally, I would back 2021 Djokovic in a potential encounter. However, I also don't rate 2023 Djokovic as high as 2021 Djokovic. He had a few struggles along the way and barring Alcaraz's cramping I believe that would have been a difficult (though winnable) match for him, in the same way that Nadal would have been troubled even more if Zverev hadn't had that freak injury. However, I think Nadal would have performed better in more favorable conditions because they were pretty terrible in that semifinal. When it came down to it, both of them curbstomped Ruud in the final. I have a preference for Nadal's overall performance in the tournament and I do believe he had the tougher field, so I went with him, but you could very easily go with Djokovic here which is why I've also included him. I think the other picks are pretty open-and-shut.

So this is where we finally run out of data for Djokovic and will have to wait before we compare his 2024 season with Fed's 2018 season and with Nadal's 2023 season.

Full Summary:
Fed builds up a very, very strong lead because of his great 2011 and 2012 seasons. These two blow every other season from all three players out of the water (the only one that would even come close in my estimate would be 2018 Djokovic, but that was for half a season). Certainly, he's the best of the three in their early 30's, and he continues to be very much relevant in their mid-30's despite a slump in 2013 and part of 2014.

Djokovic has a horror start to his 30's but later sees improvement relative to Nadal and Federer, and I'd say he edges them in their mid-30's. Still, there are a couple of fluctuations - 2019, 2020, and 2022 weren't quite as strong as 2018, 2021, and 2023 from a Slam perspective - that hold him back. Another thing that holds him back are interesting circumstances like the Wimbledon cancellation of 2020, throatgate, deportgate, and the US Open COVID ban in 2022. As I mentioned above, I don't think Djokovic's participation in Wimbledon 2020 would change things, but for the other three Slams mentioned, it probably could. Plus, as I've hinted at times in this post... Djokovic often made a strong second place even in Slams where he was not quite the #1 of the three. 2018 and 2019 Wimbledon, as well as 2021 RG and 2023 AO, are certainly among those. As such, I think his final tally definitely underestimates his longevity.

Nadal, like Fed, does very well in his early 30's (2017-2019 carries hard) but fades away in his mid-30's, although his pure superiority at RG is enough to keep him afloat and continue to add to his tally even then.

In total, here is the list of how many individual Slams I believe each of the three was the best at during their 30's:

Federer: 12
Djokovic: 6
Nadal: 9
Here's the YEC:
Federer: 5
Djokovic: 2
Nadal: 0 (some things remain constant...)

Again, that's my subjective take. There's definitely wiggle room, especially regarding a few of the picks I made in the lists above.

Well, this is phenomenal, just phenomenal coping. Pro level, lol...

 

[tennis_error]

Federer non big 3 slam loses after year he is 30 yo:
Tsonga - 0 slams
Berdych- 0 slams
Murray - 3 slams
Tsonga - 0 slams
Stakhovsky - 0 slams
Robredo - 0 slams
Gulbis - 0 slams
Cilic - 1 slams
Seppi - 0 slams
Raonic - 0 slams
Wawrinka - 3 slams
Raonic - 0 slams
Del Potro - 1 slams

________ end of 2017

Anderson - 0 slams
Millman - 0 slams
Tsitsipas - 0 slams
Wawrinka - 3 slams
Dimitrov - 0 slams
Hurkacz - 0 slams



Djokovic non big 3 slam loses after year he is 30 yo:
Istomin - 0 slams
Thiem - 1 slam
Berdych - 0 slams
Chung - 0 slams
Cecchinato - 0 slams
Thiem - 1 slam
Medvedev - 1 slam
Alcaraz - 2 slams



So, if we compare the same period in their 30s (7 years):
- Federer lost 13 times to a non big 3 player, 9 times lost to a slamless player
- Novak lost 8 times to a non big 3 player, 4 times lost to slamless player

Conclusion: the narrative that Federer had a tough time in his older age because he had to battle younger ATGs is false. He lost many more times to lesser players compared to Novak.

 

[mike danny]

Federer non big 3 slam loses after year he is 30 yo:
Tsonga - 0 slams
Berdych- 0 slams
Murray - 3 slams
Tsonga - 0 slams
Stakhovsky - 0 slams
Robredo - 0 slams
Gulbis - 0 slams
Cilic - 1 slams
Seppi - 0 slams
Raonic - 0 slams
Wawrinka - 3 slams
Raonic - 0 slams
Del Potro - 1 slams

________ end of 2017

Anderson - 0 slams
Millman - 0 slams
Tsitsipas - 0 slams
Wawrinka - 3 slams
Dimitrov - 0 slams
Hurkacz - 0 slams



Djokovic non big 3 slam loses after year he is 30 yo:
Istomin - 0 slams
Thiem - 1 slam
Berdych - 0 slams
Chung - 0 slams
Cecchinato - 0 slams
Thiem - 1 slam
Medvedev - 1 slam
Alcaraz - 2 slams



So, if we compare the same period in their 30s (7 years):
- Federer lost 13 times to a non big 3 player, 9 times lost to a slamless player
- Novak lost 8 times to a non big 3 player, 4 times lost to slamless player

Conclusion: the narrative that Federer had a tough time in his older age because he had to battle younger ATGs is false. He lost many more times to lesser players compared to Novak.

Well, Fed had 2 injury-ridden years in between. And USO 2014 and FO 2015 were not bad losses at all considering Djokovic himself lost to Wawrinka in 2015 and lost to Nishikori at that same USO 2014.

He still would've won up to 12 slams in his 30's in spite of those losses

 

[mike danny]

32+yr Djok is better than 32+yr Fed on all surfaces.

Only on clay.

 

[Towny]

I think one of the things the OP highlights is that Federer is probably underrated in his 30s compared to Djokovic and Nadal. Federer only having won 4 slams compared to 8 for Nadal and 12 for Djokovic is clearly not representative of what their respective levels were really like in their 30s; i.e. Djokovic has not been THREE TIMES better than Federer in his 30s.

That being said, I think it is fairly clear that Djokovic is doing better in his 30s than Federer and Nadal have done is theirs. I would argue that at slams, Nadal probably edges Federer too but it is much closer between those two.

Federer's biggest problem in his 30s was having to face a younger Nadal and Djokovic. He really suffered in this department far more than the other two and I think this goes a decent way to explaining his lesser slam success. But his second biggest problem was his inconsistency and lower level at RG and the USO. Federer really only has two decent USO runs in his 30s and maybe one at RG. Both Nadal and especially Djokovic were in general more consistent across the board which gave them more opportunities to win

 

[mike danny]

I think one of the things the OP highlights is that Federer is probably underrated in his 30s compared to Djokovic and Nadal. Federer only having won 4 slams compared to 8 for Nadal and 12 for Djokovic is clearly not representative of what their respective levels were really like in their 30s; i.e. Djokovic has not been THREE TIMES better than Federer in his 30s.

That being said, I think it is fairly clear that Djokovic is doing better in his 30s than Federer and Nadal have done is theirs. I would argue that at slams, Nadal probably edges Federer too but it is much closer between those two.

Federer's biggest problem in his 30s was having to face a younger Nadal and Djokovic. He really suffered in this department far more than the other two and I think this goes a decent way to explaining his lesser slam success. But his second biggest problem was his inconsistency and lower level at RG and the USO. Federer really only has two decent USO runs in his 30s and maybe one at RG. Both Nadal and especially Djokovic were in general more consistent across the board which gave them more opportunities to win

Nadal has only had 2 good USO runs in his 30's just like Fed, so no difference there.

Djokovic at the USO is in that range too.

 

[NatF]

I think one of the things the OP highlights is that Federer is probably underrated in his 30s compared to Djokovic and Nadal. Federer only having won 4 slams compared to 8 for Nadal and 12 for Djokovic is clearly not representative of what their respective levels were really like in their 30s; i.e. Djokovic has not been THREE TIMES better than Federer in his 30s.

That being said, I think it is fairly clear that Djokovic is doing better in his 30s than Federer and Nadal have done is theirs. I would argue that at slams, Nadal probably edges Federer too but it is much closer between those two.

Federer's biggest problem in his 30s was having to face a younger Nadal and Djokovic. He really suffered in this department far more than the other two and I think this goes a decent way to explaining his lesser slam success. But his second biggest problem was his inconsistency and lower level at RG and the USO. Federer really only has two decent USO runs in his 30s and maybe one at RG. Both Nadal and especially Djokovic were in general more consistent across the board which gave them more opportunities to win

This is a fair post Fed was the best at Wimbledon in his 30's, second best at the AO, third at the other two imo. He wasn't as consistent as the other two but with their competition he performs a lot better and they perform worse with his. All three statements shouldn't be up for debate.

 

[Towny]

Nadal has only had 2 good USO runs in his 30's just like Fed, so no difference there.

Djokovic at the USO is in that range too.

I was talking more about his level at RG and USO compared to his level at the other two slams rather than compared to Djokodal at RG and USO but I guess I would agree either way. I guess it's somewhat of a toss up between Federer and Nadal at the USO. They had two strong runs each (2011 and 15 for Fed, 2017 and 19 for Nadal). I would probably put Nadal's 2018 run above any of the other Fed runs though but there's not much in it. It's perhaps also worth noting Nadal missed USO 20 due to COVID although I'm certainly not going to award him a hypothetical tournament win.

I think Djokovic has been pretty clearly the best. 2 good runs plus his 2021 was better than Federer and Nadal's third best. Plus there was the DQ incident and him being barred from playing 2022 too. In any case, I think that Federer and Nadal have been similar at the slams in their 30s, with Nadal perhaps having the edge (although Federer better overall when considering Masters, YEC and other titles). Djokovic is clearly ahead of both, although not to the absurd degree the title count would indicate

 

[Third Serve]

If I had removed the final tally section entirely, I think a lot more posters would have actually read the post.

 

[mike danny]

Djokovic has been more consistent on all surfaces than Federer, but Fed would've still won up to 12 majors in his 30's irrespective of that.

And people treat some of Fed's non-Big 3 losses like they're all the same. They're not. There is no shame in losing to a peak Murray and a peak Stan for example. Heck, Djokovic himself lost to Stan at his peak and as for USO 2014, yes, the loss wasn't pretty, but it wasn't even the worst loss of that tournament. That belongs to Djokovic.

 

[tennis_error]

Federer's biggest problem in his 30s was having to face a younger Nadal and Djokovic. He really suffered in this department far more than the other two and I think this goes a decent way to explaining his lesser slam success. But his second biggest problem was his inconsistency and lower level at RG and the USO. Federer really only has two decent USO runs in his 30s and maybe one at RG. Both Nadal and especially Djokovic were in general more consistent across the board which gave them more opportunities to win

Why you don't look at two post above yours where It's shown that this myth is just a myth? He lost much more against the field compared to Novak...

 

[DSH]

Nadal has only had 2 good USO runs in his 30's just like Fed, so no difference there.

Djokovic at the USO is in that range too.

No, three, since he reached the semifinals and his physique once again denied him the possibility of competing for the title in NY.

 

[Towny]

Why you don't look at two post above yours where It's shown that this myth is just a myth? He lost much more against the field compared to Novak...

Your post only demonstrates that having to deal with younger ATGs more is not the ONLY reason Federer won fewer slams than Djokovic. However, that doesn't mean it isn't one of the reasons

Matches played against other Big 3 players
Federer 2011-17:
Against Nadal - 4
Against Djokovic - 9
Total: 13

Nadal 2016-22
Against Djokovic - 5
Against Federer - 3
Total 8

Djokovic 2017-23
Against Federer - 2
Against Nadal - 5
Total 7

Consider that Federer is older than both as well. Do you not think that having to face the other two 5 more times than Nadal did might contribute to the 4 slam difference? Or 6 times more than Djokovic might contribute to the 8 slam difference between them?

I'm not saying that this is the sole reason; I've made that clear in my previous post. But it's wrong to discount it as a factor

 

[DSH]

In the end what separates the three was not talent but physical condition and there the Serbian player has a lot of advantage, which has meant that he has won more than anyone else.

 

[Towny]

If I had removed the final tally section entirely, I think a lot more posters would have actually read the post.

I thought your breakdown was good and well thought-through, although understandably I wouldn't agree with every choice you made. It's certainly an interesting exercise and as I said before, it highlights just how good Federer was in his 30s. That said, the tally at the end is not really representative of what we've actually seen from them so perhaps not the most helpful. I guess it's difficult to quantify this kind of thing

 

[Third Serve]

I thought your breakdown was good and well thought-through, although understandably I wouldn't agree with every choice you made. It's certainly an interesting exercise and as I said before, it highlights just how good Federer was in his 30s. That said, the tally at the end is not really representative of what we've actually seen from them so perhaps not the most helpful. I guess it's difficult to quantify this kind of thing

Yeah I think it was definitely not the right call to add it. Considering deleting it in an edit but since the thread’s already out there that’d be pointless.

 

[tennis_error]

Your post only demonstrates that having to deal with younger ATGs more is not the ONLY reason Federer won fewer slams than Djokovic. However, that doesn't mean it isn't one of the reasons

Matches played against other Big 3 players
Federer 2011-17:
Against Nadal - 4
Against Djokovic - 9
Total: 13

Nadal 2016-22
Against Djokovic - 5
Against Federer - 3
Total 8

Djokovic 2017-23
Against Federer - 2
Against Nadal - 5
Total 7

Consider that Federer is older than both as well. Do you not think that having to face the other two 5 more times than Nadal did might contribute to the 4 slam difference? Or 6 times more than Djokovic might contribute to the 8 slam difference between them?

I'm not saying that this is the sole reason; I've made that clear in my previous post. But it's wrong to discount it as a factor

Well, even if we count all 6 more matches difference (from Novak) as Federer slam wins, he is still short 2 slams. But would he win all those matches when he in reality lost 14 times at slams to some other players? I don't think so. And even if by some miracle it's true that he would win those 6 slams difference, Novak is still 2 slams better than Federer, and all we read here is "Fed had to play 2 ATGs". Sorry, but no. Novak is at least equal to Federer after 30 yo, and most probably better quite a lot, specially if he continues to do what he does.

And can we do this kind of math for Novak when he was in disadvantageous position, when he was tennis baby playing against tennis goat in his best years and clay goat through his this whole career? Can you imagine young Fed, who was not that good compared to Nole and Rafa having to go through peak Novak and Rafa all the time, each slam, sometimes playing both? Would he get initial success and aura he had against his peers?

 

[Towny]

Well, even if we count all 6 more matches difference (from Novak) as Federer slam wins, he is still short 2 slams. But would he win all those matches when he in reality lost 14 times at slams to some other players? I don't think so. And even if by some miracle it's true that he would win those 6 slams difference, Novak is still 2 slams better than Federer, and all we read here is "Fed had to play 2 ATGs". Sorry, but no. Novak is at least equal to Federer after 30 yo, and most probably better quite a lot, specially if he continues to do what he does.

And can we do this kind of math for Novak when he was in disadvantageous position, when he was tennis baby playing against tennis goat in his best years and clay goat through his this whole career? Can you imagine young Fed, who was not that good compared to Nole and Rafa having to go through peak Novak and Rafa all the time, each slam, sometimes playing both? Would he get initial success and aura he had against his peers?

I think you're misunderstanding where I'm coming from. I've never said that Federer having to play Djokodal fully explains Federer's 8 slam deficit to Djokovic. Just that it's a significant contributory factor. I've said several times in this thread that Djokovic is better in his 30s than Federer was in his. I would also agree that Djokovic had it harder in his early 20s than Federer had in his.

 

[tennis_error]

I think you're misunderstanding where I'm coming from. I've never said that Federer having to play Djokodal fully explains Federer's 8 slam deficit to Djokovic. Just that it's a significant contributory factor. I've said several times in this thread that Djokovic is better in his 30s than Federer was in his. I would also agree that Djokovic had it harder in his early 20s than Federer had in his.

Thanks for clarifying. I agree 100%.

 

[mike danny]

No, three, since he reached the semifinals and his physique once again denied him the possibility of competing for the title in NY.

Fed reached a semi in 2014 too in that case

 

[SonnyT]

Djokovic is way better than Federer at age 32+. Fed won 3 slams, in the absence of healthy Djoko in '17-18. Djokovic won 9 slams 32+.

 

[mike danny]

Djokovic is way better than Federer at age 32+. Fed won 3 slams, in the absence of healthy Djoko in '17-18. Djokovic won 9 slams 32+.

I wonder why…

 

[objection_]

Continued:

2015 vs. 2020 vs. 2021:
AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
W: Federer
USO: Federer
YEC: Federer

Explanation: Looks like a clean victory for Fed here but this is one instance where this representation is a little misleading. I would certainly take 2015 Fed over 2021 Djokovic at Wimbledon and the US Open, but those margins are narrower compared to Djokovic's lead over Federer in the first two Slams, although Nadal still trumps Novak at RG.

Wimbledon might be a controversial pick but you have to realize that 2015 Djokovic is basically Djokovic's top level at Wimbledon. Serve was great, baseline game was super sharp, and this was one of his personal best returning performances imo. Still, Fed ran it basically dead even for two sets and a half on the back of some good serving (though not as good as 2014) and some very clutch play at times. I think he should definitely be favored in level over 2021 Djokovic who played a bad first set and needed more time to get into his groove... and not to mention he also returned worse than in 2015, which will hurt him. The only argument I could see for him here is one based on stamina. Fed did start to run out of gas in the tail end of the third set while 2021 Djokovic had no such issue, but, again, Fed was keeping it level with peak grass Djokovic for a good long time so it's understandable.

I'd also give the YEC to Fed. Certainly a forgettable performance in the final but I don't think Fed would have lost to someone on the caliber of 2021 Zverev.
Nadal at this point is starting to fade away from the other two.

2016 vs. 2021 vs. 2022:
AO: Federer (*)
RG: Nadal
W: Djokovic
USO: ---
YEC: Djokovic

Explanation: This year is pretty ugly because I wouldn't exactly classify any of these guys as being particularly in form, plus all three skipped the US Open at the same point in their careers so we have no data there.

The whole deportgate thing obviously looms over the AO result but in the absence of data from Djokovic, I'd have to go with Federer. Fed didn't play a very good match in the 2016 semifinal, but Djokovic basically hit god mode there so he was made to look a lot worse than he actually was. We should be praising him for taking a set honestly. I would personally take this over losing to Tsitsipas in the QF.

RG will be a closer contest because 2021 Nadal and 2022 Djokovic weren't really in form. I do rate the 2021 match higher though, so that has a hand in my choice of Nadal here.

Wimbledon is definitely Djokovic. Fed led an inspired charge to the semifinals... but he was injured. Djokovic was in iffy shape going into the final but I thought the final itself was actually a good performance; there's not as many holes to poke here as you would with 2019 or 2021, plus the returning was legitimately impressive by a general standard, not just for someone in his mid-30's.

Djokovic also gets the YEC since the other two are AWOL.

2017 vs. 2022 vs. 2023:
AO: Federer
RG: Nadal / Djokovic
W: Federer
USO: Djokovic
YEC: Djokovic

Explanation: Like with Djokovic's 2021 season, a little deceptive because on aggregate, I think Djokovic had the best season, but this doesn't materialize in the Slams because Fed has enough to edge him at the AO and Wimbledon (while doing little at RG and W) while Nadal can stop him at RG (while doing little damage at AO, W, or USO).

There are a couple of controversial picks here. The first is the AO. Personally, I think 2017 Fed just hit higher highs in overall level (particularly in the fifth set of the final), took down much stronger opponents, and wasn't carrying an injury. For these reasons, I pick him here over 2023 Djokovic. And sorry guys but I just do not rate AO 2022 Nadal at all. I think he could do some damage to Fed or Djokovic but honestly that was one of the lowest level Slam victories I think I've ever seen.

The second one is RG. I think we can agree that Nadal's level at RG 2022 was the lowest of all the RGs he's won. Personally, I would back 2021 Djokovic in a potential encounter. However, I also don't rate 2023 Djokovic as high as 2021 Djokovic. He had a few struggles along the way and barring Alcaraz's cramping I believe that would have been a difficult (though winnable) match for him, in the same way that Nadal would have been troubled even more if Zverev hadn't had that freak injury. However, I think Nadal would have performed better in more favorable conditions because they were pretty terrible in that semifinal. When it came down to it, both of them curbstomped Ruud in the final. I have a preference for Nadal's overall performance in the tournament and I do believe he had the tougher field, so I went with him, but you could very easily go with Djokovic here which is why I've also included him. I think the other picks are pretty open-and-shut.

So this is where we finally run out of data for Djokovic and will have to wait before we compare his 2024 season with Fed's 2018 season and with Nadal's 2023 season.

Full Summary:
Fed builds up a very, very strong lead because of his great 2011 and 2012 seasons. These two blow every other season from all three players out of the water (the only one that would even come close in my estimate would be 2018 Djokovic, but that was for half a season). Certainly, he's the best of the three in their early 30's, and he continues to be very much relevant in their mid-30's despite a slump in 2013 and part of 2014.

Djokovic has a horror start to his 30's but later sees improvement relative to Nadal and Federer, and I'd say he edges them in their mid-30's. Still, there are a couple of fluctuations - 2019, 2020, and 2022 weren't quite as strong as 2018, 2021, and 2023 from a Slam perspective - that hold him back. Another thing that holds him back are interesting circumstances like the Wimbledon cancellation of 2020, throatgate, deportgate, and the US Open COVID ban in 2022. As I mentioned above, I don't think Djokovic's participation in Wimbledon 2020 would change things, but for the other three Slams mentioned, it probably could. Plus, as I've hinted at times in this post... Djokovic often made a strong second place even in Slams where he was not quite the #1 of the three. 2018 and 2019 Wimbledon, as well as 2021 RG and 2023 AO, are certainly among those. As such, I think his final tally definitely underestimates his longevity.

Nadal, like Fed, does very well in his early 30's (2017-2019 carries hard) but fades away in his mid-30's, although his pure superiority at RG is enough to keep him afloat and continue to add to his tally even then.

In total, here is the list of how many individual Slams I believe each of the three was the best at during their 30's:

Federer: 12
Djokovic: 6
Nadal: 9
Here's the YEC:
Federer: 5
Djokovic: 2
Nadal: 0 (some things remain constant...)

Again, that's my subjective take. There's definitely wiggle room, especially regarding a few of the picks I made in the lists above.

2018 vs 2023 vs 2024? Rafa was AWOL basically all year but slams are looking like
AO: Fed
RG: Djoke
W: Fed
USO: Fed

AO: Neither with particularly difficult draws but Fed managed his way better, + I can't see him going down 1 and 2 to Sinner - RAFA a non-factor as that was probably his worst hardcourt slam performance of all time

RG: N/A, neither of the other 2 played
W: Again, neither Fed nor Djoke were particularly impressive although injuredhanderer probably edges it over kneeovic
USO: Both played crappy in the matches they lost but Fed was more impressive leading up, compared to Djoko with his worst serving performances ever.

 

[RS]

And this is with all the slow courts slowed down to hurt Fed on purpose. Fed wins by a mile.