The Big 3 era is inflated due to lacking competition from outside Europe
- Thread starter Kralingen
- Start date
RS
Bionic Poster
Beerus invented this
Hitman
Bionic Poster
Interesting read.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
Federer faced stronger competition from the US and Australia than Sampras or Agassi did from Europe in the mid/late 90s. In fact, peak Roddick was better than any American besides those two (well Agassi too most of the time), after 1993, Hewitt was on par with Rafter in terms of Australians. So for Federer this doesn't make any sense. After that, yeah most of the depth just disappeared.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
So has Europe. It's a global phenomenon.
In the past, Europe was stronger in some generations, US stronger in others. Australia isn't really relevant to most of the open era, it's just Hewitt and Rafter.
pedro94
Semi-Pro
arvind13
Professional
Courier and Chang were both better than roddick
Holmes
Hall of Fame
The best specialists PETE faced (Kracijek, Stich, Goran, Guga) were more dangerous than Roddick on their best surfaces than he was on grass.
NeutralFan
G.O.A.T.
Nobody cares about Americans and their silly sports, get over it, son!
Americans care about their sports they have 4 of the 5 highest revenue leagues in the world. I don’t need to get over anything
jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
Your head is inflated
optic yellow
Legend
Most of the European players are white tho
Wait what? There are more great white players in today’s NBA than in any era since the 60s or 80s, and even then that was mainly just Bird and McHale
Jokic - best in the league
Doncic - top 5 most likely, first team all NBA
Sabonis 3rd team all NBA
Markkanen MIP and all star
Caruso/Lopez all-defense
Austin Reaves also apparently the USA’s second best player at the World Cup lol
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The Guru
Legend
I meant from the 60s. Just like white people got outcompeted in the NBA so did Americans in tennis. Player pool is the biggest it’s ever been.
Sure it’s a big player pool but are the likes of Fritz Tiafoe Paul De Minaur Kyrgios anywhere near the ATGs of the past from those countries?
Sampras-Bruguera 1993
Legend
its Still going on LOL. Hell watch Djoker and Nadal sweep the slams next year
Razer
G.O.A.T.
Good thread @Kralingen
RS
Bionic Poster
It could happen but probably a long way away. Europe will be extremely hard to knock off when it comes to tennis.
Razer
G.O.A.T.
Americans could produce GOAT candidates in future but Africa cannot, Tennis is too elite a sport to spread there, so I agree Europe will always be dominant at least over the africans. Saudi Muslims are just starting, it will take many decades until ATGs emerge from there, by then Nadal might be in his 70s... his academy in Middle East will produce slam winners 1 day and he will be an old man to present trophies to those kids from the future.
Pheasant
Legend
I've always believe that the Big 3 records are inflated, due to a wide variety of reasons. Things like nutrition, better equipment, better surfaces, better scheduling, more homogenized surfaces, better training, etc have drastically helped extend the peak years of the greats. It also doesn't hurt that hardly anybody in the U.S. gives a rip about tennis. The best males athletes play football and basketball here. Women don't really have many other alternatives to makes millions of dollars playing pro sports, so the women here still focus more on tennis than the men do.
If I were equally talented in very sport(let's say good enough to be in the top 100 in the world), then here's the order that I'd choose:
1. Baseball. This isn't even close. You can ride the bench and make league minimum 500k a year with all travel expenses covered. Also, it's virtually a no-contact sport and the longevity is incredible. Nolan Ryan played 27 seasons at a fairly high level. Lots of guys can go 20 years straight. This is a no-brainer. Once you hit 10 years, then you are guaranteed at least a million dollars a year net.
2. Basketball. You can't go quite as long as you can in baseball. But this sport pays ridiculous money, even if you are the 50th best in the world.
3. Hockey. This one is a bit tougher. But with helmet technology, the chances of CTE are a lot less these days.
And what's funny is that I'd prefer to play tennis over any of these sports. However, you have to be way too good to cash in big at that sport. Scraping the top-100 in the world doesn't pay you millions. And you have to spend a large amount of money on training. The risk/reward here in the U.S. isn't worth it, IMHO. It's too much lottery odds compared to other sports.
If I were equally talented in very sport(let's say good enough to be in the top 100 in the world), then here's the order that I'd choose:
1. Baseball. This isn't even close. You can ride the bench and make league minimum 500k a year with all travel expenses covered. Also, it's virtually a no-contact sport and the longevity is incredible. Nolan Ryan played 27 seasons at a fairly high level. Lots of guys can go 20 years straight. This is a no-brainer. Once you hit 10 years, then you are guaranteed at least a million dollars a year net.
2. Basketball. You can't go quite as long as you can in baseball. But this sport pays ridiculous money, even if you are the 50th best in the world.
3. Hockey. This one is a bit tougher. But with helmet technology, the chances of CTE are a lot less these days.
And what's funny is that I'd prefer to play tennis over any of these sports. However, you have to be way too good to cash in big at that sport. Scraping the top-100 in the world doesn't pay you millions. And you have to spend a large amount of money on training. The risk/reward here in the U.S. isn't worth it, IMHO. It's too much lottery odds compared to other sports.
I think the baseball minimum salary now is 740,000.
I have always maintained that Aussies have the hardest road in becoming a successful pro tennis player out of the big tennis countries. You either have to live away from home for most of your pro life or try and live in Australia and travel like a crazy man. The season starts off in Australia but after that your just flying all over the place. Even in the challenger circuit most of the challengers in Europe so it just seems really difficult. Im always impressed by the men and women who have succeeded from Australia.
a10best
Legend
Maybe it's because:
- non-euro countries focus for male sports is the NBA, MLB, NFL, MMA, Boxing, Cycling, Swimming, and int'l Football.
Opting to go into the major sports and making $5-$15M to sit on the bench or become an asst. coach or TV commentator post career Odds are pretty good than doing the same in tennis.
- non-euro countries focus for male sports is the NBA, MLB, NFL, MMA, Boxing, Cycling, Swimming, and int'l Football.
Opting to go into the major sports and making $5-$15M to sit on the bench or become an asst. coach or TV commentator post career Odds are pretty good than doing the same in tennis.
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Pheasant
Legend
That's amazing. In 1969, the league average was 29k a year. My dad as an engineer made 24k that same year and was guaranteed killer medical benefits for life, once he hit 15 years at the company. Even though he was a great pitcher during his prime, it didn't make sense for him to pursue a career in baseball. My guess is that with the payouts these days, he would have pursued it. If it doesn't work, then you can always get your degree in engineering after the fact and then become an engineer.
The free agency that hit in the 1970s really skyrocketed the pay of baseball players.
Yea you also get a really nice pension in baseball now depending on years played. I will push back, on tons of guys playing 20 years. Its not as common as you think at least at MLB level. However if you add in their minor league time yes 20 years is not that unusual. Also if you are a highly ranked prospect you can be signed for millions right out of high school or college and literally never make a major league roster. Not a bad gig.
Despite the insane European dominance of men’s tennis, the participation of sport is numerous European countries, including in the long-standing powerhouse nation Spain plus other major markets such as Germany and the UK, has declined.
I read stats not long ago showing that participation figures in other big markets like Japan and Brazil have declined. In the US, I saw that overall participation figures were lower in 2019 compared to in 2010, before increasing noticeably following Covid for obvious reasons (that Covid-induced surge looks to have continued since then) - of course those figures in the US are still lower than those in the mid 70s - early 80s (following the tennis boom).
I’d wager that in many different countries across the world including in major markets, female participation figures have held up better / have healthier trends than male participation figures, again for obvious reasons.
And with the huge explosion of money in the major team sports / leagues within the top team sports since the 90s, which has further accelerated since then, tennis for men has lagged further and further behind in the money and glamour stakes. Plus players stuck in challenger / ITF tournaments are comparatively worse off financially than their counterparts in previous eras, as playing expenses have increased at a faster rate through inflation than lower level prize money.
Agassi’s father said that he’d push his son towards baseball or golf instead of tennis if they did things all over again. A 12 year old Nadal made a decision to pursue tennis over football in 1998. If he was born in 1996 instead of 1986, I think it’s significantly less likely that he’d make the same decision at the age of 12 in 2008 (football in general including the major European clubs and competitions was far more glamorous and a giant global behemoth in 2008 than it was in 1998). That indicates that men’s tennis overall is likely to attract a ‘lower class of athlete’ in modern times, compared to previous eras when there wasn’t such a huge financial gulf between the major team sports and it.
So based on those factors, I very much struggle to buy the notion that there is a deeper talent pool in men’s tennis nowadays compared to say the 90s, 00s etc.
I read stats not long ago showing that participation figures in other big markets like Japan and Brazil have declined. In the US, I saw that overall participation figures were lower in 2019 compared to in 2010, before increasing noticeably following Covid for obvious reasons (that Covid-induced surge looks to have continued since then) - of course those figures in the US are still lower than those in the mid 70s - early 80s (following the tennis boom).
I’d wager that in many different countries across the world including in major markets, female participation figures have held up better / have healthier trends than male participation figures, again for obvious reasons.
And with the huge explosion of money in the major team sports / leagues within the top team sports since the 90s, which has further accelerated since then, tennis for men has lagged further and further behind in the money and glamour stakes. Plus players stuck in challenger / ITF tournaments are comparatively worse off financially than their counterparts in previous eras, as playing expenses have increased at a faster rate through inflation than lower level prize money.
Agassi’s father said that he’d push his son towards baseball or golf instead of tennis if they did things all over again. A 12 year old Nadal made a decision to pursue tennis over football in 1998. If he was born in 1996 instead of 1986, I think it’s significantly less likely that he’d make the same decision at the age of 12 in 2008 (football in general including the major European clubs and competitions was far more glamorous and a giant global behemoth in 2008 than it was in 1998). That indicates that men’s tennis overall is likely to attract a ‘lower class of athlete’ in modern times, compared to previous eras when there wasn’t such a huge financial gulf between the major team sports and it.
So based on those factors, I very much struggle to buy the notion that there is a deeper talent pool in men’s tennis nowadays compared to say the 90s, 00s etc.
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ActualTennisPlayer
Professional
Do you have sources for number of kids/teenagers playing?
TheGoldenEra1990’s
Hall of Fame
Very inflated. These European players are much worse today than before. No American top players since the 2000’s have helped too. For as much “worldwide popularity” I always hear about in tennis, why there are so many rotten players you can count on to never win anything? LOL
What is the difference where the top competition comes from? It was not the fault of the big 3 that European players dominated their era. No country or continent has the given right to dominate any sport.
Razer
G.O.A.T.
Do you seriously need me to spell out the obvious buddy ?
Read the posts in the thread and you will know what difference it makes
It is common knowledge that most tournaments are in europe, so it is easier for europeans to travel and to obvious be close to family, perform better and what not...
Plus it is also common knowledge that USA, Australia kinda places have historically produced ATG talents, when young upcoming athletes show less interest in tennis in these countries then the talent pool dwindles more, thus making it easier for the europeans to dominate and accumulate stats.
Isn't this obvious to you man? You are asking me what difference it makes where competition comes from ?
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ActualTennisPlayer
Professional
Interestingly the traditional European countries, Sweden and Germany, have also declined.
In contrast, you have lots of players from the former Warsaw pact and Yugoslavia and Spain (and now even Italy).
Warsaw pact has a large population. Spain and Yugoslavia are punching above their weight in a lot of sports.
In basketball 2 of the top 3 players in the world are from former Yugoslavia. Spain dominated soccer from 2004-2008 and basketball (after USA) from 2006-2019.
In female tennis the same shift seems to have occurred.
It is interesting to study why these nations have risen. Is it because Germany or Sweden have gotten bad or because the other nations have gotten great?
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ActualTennisPlayer
Professional
I also wonder whether it is an American decline in general or just a white American decline?
Let’s take basketball. In the 80s an all-white American basketball team would probably beat the European teams. A current all-white American team would loose against a lot of European teams: Germany, Spain, France, Serbia, slovenia, Lithuania and maybe against Greece, Turkey and Latvia.
US sports seem to be heavily dominated by African Americans, who are I think only 12% of the population. Somehow African American men don’t like tennis that much. African American females do like tennis and in the WTA the US can compete with Europe. I don’t think that is a coincidence.
Let’s take basketball. In the 80s an all-white American basketball team would probably beat the European teams. A current all-white American team would loose against a lot of European teams: Germany, Spain, France, Serbia, slovenia, Lithuania and maybe against Greece, Turkey and Latvia.
US sports seem to be heavily dominated by African Americans, who are I think only 12% of the population. Somehow African American men don’t like tennis that much. African American females do like tennis and in the WTA the US can compete with Europe. I don’t think that is a coincidence.
You dont really know much about America dude. White Americans dominate baseball, and large numbers are also in hockey. Europe barely played high level basketball in the 80s. Some of the posts on this site are so idiotic its beyond comprehension.
ActualTennisPlayer
Professional
Exactly my point. Europe, especially Eastern Europe and spain, sucked in basketball in the 80s, and now they are very good. In the 80s white Americans were better than Europeans, now not anymore. Same happened in tennis.
With respect to the hockey. Has the share of European players playing in the NHL increased vs the 80s? Is Europe closer to America in hockey now compared to the 80s?
We are looking at trends here, not absolute level.
Unfortunately, we can’t do that with baseball because Europeans don’t play baseball.
What are you even talking about. Europe started playing high level basketball later on. Thats why they are better now. I mean US soccer is better now than it was in the 80s. So is Japanese soccer. Because the countries didnt really play it at high levels back then. Now slowly but surely they are getting better. And you guys always throw EUROPE in there when speaking about things like this. Different countries have different times when they are better. Germany use to have many good tennis players now they dont. The UK use to have many good tennis players now they dont. Same with Sweden. Even France is in a decline with tennis. The Eastern Europeans and Spanish are very good now. In 20 years it could be some other countries. Making blanket statements on stuff is stupid.
abmk
Bionic Poster
ActualTennisPlayer
Professional
Read my first point again, I said that Sweden and Germany declined.
Not sure about how valid your soccer comparison is. Yes, Japan and USA improved in soccer but they still suck vs European nations. Meanwhile, in basketball and tennis European nations are great now. Not sure about hockey, that’s why I asked you.
Notice also that my first post about American sports was a question. I want to know more about the topic and discover the truth. It’s not really appropriate to call that “idiotic” and saying that I have no clue about the US. We can easily do this in a cooperative way
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