The breakdown of first ranking protection

[N01E]

Firstly I have to mention that this analysis shouldn’t be taken 100% seriously. Some players decided to skip certain events due to the format and we can’t know for sure what outcome it would give us. It’s possible that I may have missed some events so if you spot a mistake please mention it.

I used ATP ranking from 8.03.21 and added the points from last week’s tournaments (I didn’t remove IW points) to address only the first form of ranking protection. I only looked at current top 8, but even if I removed those points the group would end up being the same. I only considered events that were played to have a result for comparison.



Here’s the top 8 and their protected events breakdown:


1. Djokovic (12030):
180 (USO) + 1000 (Paris) + 525 (ATP CUP) + 500 (Dubai) = 2205 (1180 + 1025)

2. Medvedev (9965):
820 (Cincy) + 480 (USO) + 10 (Rome) + 230 (St. Petersburg) = 1540

3. Nadal (9850):
2000 (USO) + 820 (Rome) + 250 (ATP CUP) +500 (Acapulco) = 3570 (2820 + 750)

4. Thiem (9125):
10 (Rome) + 45 (Hamburg) + 840 (RG) + 410 (Vienna) + 90 (Paris) + 15 (ATP CUP) + 1020 (AO) = 2430 (1395+1035)

5. Tsitsipas (6660):
315 (Rome) + 135 (Paris) + 1100 (WTF) + 205 (Marseille) + 300 (Dubai) = 2055 (1550 + 505)

6. Federer (6630):
90 (Cincy) + 360 (USO) + 180 (Rome) + 720 (RG) + 400 (ATP Finals) + 720 (AO) = 2470 (1750 + 720)

7. Zverev (5615):
45 (Rome) + 90 (Hamburg) + 180 (RG) +200 (ATP Finals) + 360 (AO) = 875 (515 + 360)

8. Rublev (5019):
170 (Cincy) + 250 (Adelaide) + 160 (Doha) = 580 (170 + 410)


Points saved from 2019 :

1. Nadal (2820)
2. Federer (1750)
3.Tsitsipas (1550)
4. Medvedev (1540)
5. Thiem (1395)
6. Djokovic (1180)
7. Zverev (515)
8. Rublev (170)

Average: 1365

No surprises here. Most of big 3 points were saved from skipping tournaments (the only exception was Nadal in Rome, but the DQ would have costed Novak some points as well). The first draft of the system actually assumed dropping 2019 ATP finals points, but ATP decided to keep them, which only helped Tsitsipas (1100, got really lucky here), Federer (400) and Zverev (200).

Just 3 out of 6 Medvedev 2019 finals run tournaments were played (which gave him 4350 points) with Daniil ”losing” 1530 already with ”possible” 1900 to lose as well. This is the main argument against his #2 ranking as it made him 3 M1000, WTF and 2 Slam Finals holder instead of 1 M1000, WTF and a Slam Final. However keeping points from tournaments played didn’t help him with reaching top 2 in the rankings.

The gap between #1 and #2 is bigger than between any other next 2 places in this category and I think that Tsitsipas was somehow forgotten in this debate seeing how much he got away with without getting mentioned.



Points saved from 2020 :

1. Thiem (1035)
2. Djokovic (1025)
3. Nadal (750)
4. Federer (720)
5. Tsitsipas (505)
6. Rublev (410)
7. Zverev (360)
8. Medvedev (0)

Average: 601

Thiem AO points pretty much gave us the obvious result. This also shows us how big ATP Cup really is as it could have hurt Novak a bit (which is the only reason why one could get as angry as he did while losing in doubles). This is also the only stat where Rublev manages to get into top 6.



Points saved overall :

1. Nadal (3570)
2. Federer (2470)
3. Thiem (2430)
4. Djokovic (2205)
5. Tsitsipas (2055)
6. Medvedev (1540)
7. Zverev (875)
8. Rublev (580)

Average: 1966

Massive boost for Rafa. When it comes to race for #1 Novak got 665 advantage over Medvedev, but is behind by 1365 and 225 against Rafa and Dominic respectively. Thiem saving almost as many points as Federer isn’t mentioned anywhere as well.



Top 8 without ranking protection (and how the protection affected their rank) :


1. Djokovic (9825)
2. Medvedev (8425)
3. Thiem (6695) (-1)
4. Nadal (6280) (+1)
5. Zverev (4740) (-2)
6. Tsitsipas (4605) (+1)
7. Rublev (4439) (-1)
8. Federer (4160) (+2)


What’s interesting is that while only top 2 remained the same, positions 1-2, 3-4 and 5-8 feature the same players, so the system doesn’t impact the seeding for top players (Schwartzman is below 4k). Sascha’s position took the biggest hit, while Roger benefited more than anyone else.



Percentage of points from saved tournaments :

1. Federer (37.25%)
2. Nadal (36.24%)
3. Tsitsipas (30.86%)
4. Thiem (26.63%)
5. Djokovic (18.33%)
6. Zverev (15.58%)
7. Medvedev (15.45%)
8. Rublev (11.56%)

Average: 23.99%

This is where it gets bad for RF, but what may be surprising to some is that percentage-wise he and Rafa are almost the same. Tsitsipas and Thiem once again forgotten. Good to know that it’s relatively small for top 2




Most points saved in a single event :

1. Nadal (USO – 2000)
2. Tsitsipas (ATP Finals – 1100)
3. Thiem (AO -1020)
4. Djokovic (Paris -1000)
5. Thiem (RG – 840)
6. Nadal (Rome – 820)
6. Medvedev (Cincy - 820)
8. Federer (RG – 720)
8. Federer (AO -720)
10. Djokovic (ATP Cup – 525)



Observations for each player :

Djokovic:
Novak has saved almost the same amount of points from both seasons (1180/1025), but the way he kept them is also worth noting as pretty much none of them came from worse singles performance in the event, but more from the lack of playing in them. He reached the same round in USO, but due to DQ would have lost the points. Then skipped Bercy thanks to ranking protection (pretty much no other reasons to do so), couldn’t defend ATP Cup because of loss in doubles and skipped Dubai (would probably miss it even without points protection). The biggest positive for him is the adventage over Medvedev, but seeing how Nadal 2019 clay points will stand longer than those from Daniil’s 2019 run, it may actually hurt his position.

Medvedev:
As I said before, when it comes to the events played he didn’t do too badly. The tour resumed during the period of his run and his case is mostly benefiting from keeping points from cancelled tournaments, but the fact that only 15.45% of his points are from the freeze (7th position, the biggest difference between the actual rankings and any other stat) prove that he is worthy of being the true #2. He’s also the only player who didn’t lose any points from 2020, though that’s kind of thanks to bad Rotterdam ”run” from that year.

Nadal:
Probably the greatest beneficiary of the system. No one else comes close to 3570 points he saved and he’s one of two players with over 1/3 of points from the protection.

Thiem:
Second most points saved from slams after Rafa. No two players next to each other have kept as many points in each category as them.

Tsitsipas:
More than 30% of points kept. Despite the AO SF run he’s the guy Zverev should be complaining about. His WTF run is the second biggest result protected and the biggest in which the player competed.

Federer:
The biggest percentage and the second biggest number of points saved (although just by 40 points), being the only top 8 player who moved up by two positions obviously helped, but the events that weren't played are the reason he's still in top 8. Even with AO 2020 it's still less than half (48,11%).

Zverev:
The one who lost the most.

Rublev:
It’s not much, but it’s honest work.

 

[Deleted member 748597]

bUt dJoKoViC iS hElpEd bY THe nEw COviD rankiNGsz

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Apart from a couple of special instances at the very top, the elephant in the room is that all those players were the biggest beneficiaries from the system.

The most hurt were the young up and comers that didn't have anything to "save".

ATP working tirelessly to promote tennis among the young.

 

[daphne]

Scrap the COVID19 Ranking protection system and Fedr is OFF the ATP Ranking list. That's Zverev's point. And if it is as such (including AO21) Fedr would be somewhere between # 600-650 and without WCs he'd be toast.

Perhaps he will end up at Challengers IF he gets back at all from his "conditioning" adventure.

 

[yokied]

Good job OP. Have they put a deadline on when this system will expire and whether it will default back to the previous system?

 

[Ogi44]

Firstly I have to mention that this analysis shouldn’t be taken 100% seriously. Some players decided to skip certain events due to the format and we can’t know for sure what outcome it would give us. It’s possible that I may have missed some events so if you spot a mistake please mention it.

I used ATP ranking from 8.03.21 and added the points from last week’s tournaments (I didn’t remove IW points) to address only the first form of ranking protection. I only looked at current top 8, but even if I removed those points the group would end up being the same. I only considered events that were played to have a result for comparison.



Here’s the top 8 and their protected events breakdown:


1. Djokovic (12030):
180 (USO) + 1000 (Paris) + 525 (ATP CUP) + 500 (Dubai) = 2205 (1180 + 1025)

2. Medvedev (9965):
820 (Cincy) + 480 (USO) + 10 (Rome) + 230 (St. Petersburg) = 1540

3. Nadal (9850):
2000 (USO) + 820 (Rome) + 250 (ATP CUP) +500 (Acapulco) = 3570 (2820 + 750)

4. Thiem (9125):
10 (Rome) + 45 (Hamburg) + 840 (RG) + 410 (Vienna) + 90 (Paris) + 15 (ATP CUP) + 1020 (AO) = 2430 (1395+1035)

5. Tsitsipas (6660):
315 (Rome) + 135 (Paris) + 1100 (WTF) + 205 (Marseille) + 300 (Dubai) = 2055 (1550 + 505)

6. Federer (6630):
90 (Cincy) + 360 (USO) + 180 (Rome) + 720 (RG) + 400 (ATP Finals) + 720 (AO) = 2470 (1750 + 720)

7. Zverev (5615):
45 (Rome) + 90 (Hamburg) + 180 (RG) +200 (ATP Finals) + 360 (AO) = 875 (515 + 360)

8. Rublev (5019):
170 (Cincy) + 250 (Adelaide) + 160 (Doha) = 580 (170 + 410)


Points saved from 2019 :

1. Nadal (2820)
2. Federer (1750)
3.Tsitsipas (1550)
4. Medvedev (1540)
5. Thiem (1395)
6. Djokovic (1180)
7. Zverev (515)
8. Rublev (170)

Average: 1365

No surprises here. Most of big 3 points were saved from skipping tournaments (the only exception was Nadal in Rome, but the DQ would have costed Novak some points as well). The first draft of the system actually assumed dropping 2019 ATP finals points, but ATP decided to keep them, which only helped Tsitsipas (1100, got really lucky here), Federer (400) and Zverev (200).

Just 3 out of 6 Medvedev 2019 finals run tournaments were played (which gave him 4350 points) with Daniil ”losing” 1530 already with ”possible” 1900 to lose as well. This is the main argument against his #2 ranking as it made him 3 M1000, WTF and 2 Slam Finals holder instead of 1 M1000, WTF and a Slam Final. However keeping points from tournaments played didn’t help him with reaching top 2 in the rankings.

The gap between #1 and #2 is bigger than between any other next 2 places in this category and I think that Tsitsipas was somehow forgotten in this debate seeing how much he got away with without getting mentioned.



Points saved from 2020 :

1. Thiem (1035)
2. Djokovic (1025)
3. Nadal (750)
4. Federer (720)
5. Tsitsipas (505)
6. Rublev (410)
7. Zverev (360)
8. Medvedev (0)

Average: 601

Thiem AO points pretty much gave us the obvious result. This also shows us how big ATP Cup really is as it could have hurt Novak a bit (which is the only reason why one could get as angry as he did while losing in doubles). This is also the only stat where Rublev manages to get into top 6.



Points saved overall :

1. Nadal (3570)
2. Federer (2470)
3. Thiem (2430)
4. Djokovic (2205)
5. Tsitsipas (2055)
6. Medvedev (1540)
7. Zverev (875)
8. Rublev (580)

Average: 1966

Massive boost for Rafa. When it comes to race for #1 Novak got 665 advantage over Medvedev, but is behind by 1365 and 225 against Rafa and Dominic respectively. Thiem saving almost as many points as Federer isn’t mentioned anywhere as well.



Top 8 without ranking protection (and how the protection affected their rank) :


1. Djokovic (9825)
2. Medvedev (8425)
3. Thiem (6695) (-1)
4. Nadal (6280) (+1)
5. Zverev (4740) (-2)
6. Tsitsipas (4605) (+1)
7. Rublev (4439) (-1)
8. Federer (4160) (+2)


What’s interesting is that while only top 2 remained the same, positions 1-2, 3-4 and 5-8 feature the same players, so the system doesn’t impact the seeding for top players (Schwartzman is below 4k). Sascha’s position took the biggest hit, while Roger benefited more than anyone else.



Percentage of points from saved tournaments :

1. Federer (37.25%)
2. Nadal (36.24%)
3. Tsitsipas (30.86%)
4. Thiem (26.63%)
5. Djokovic (18.33%)
6. Zverev (15.58%)
7. Medvedev (15.45%)
8. Rublev (11.56%)

Average: 23.99%

This is where it gets bad for RF, but what may be surprising to some is that percentage-wise he and Rafa are almost the same. Tsitsipas and Thiem once again forgotten. Good to know that it’s relatively small for top 2




Most points saved in a single event :

1. Nadal (USO – 2000)
2. Tsitsipas (ATP Finals – 1100)
3. Thiem (AO -1020)
4. Djokovic (Paris -1000)
5. Thiem (RG – 840)
6. Nadal (Rome – 820)
6. Medvedev (Cincy - 820)
8. Federer (RG – 720)
8. Federer (AO -720)
10. Djokovic (ATP Cup – 525)



Observations for each player :

Djokovic:
Novak has saved almost the same amount of points from both seasons (1180/1025), but the way he kept them is also worth noting as pretty much none of them came from worse singles performance in the event, but more from the lack of playing in them. He reached the same round in USO, but due to DQ would have lost the points. Then skipped Bercy thanks to ranking protection (pretty much no other reasons to do so), couldn’t defend ATP Cup because of loss in doubles and skipped Dubai (would probably miss it even without points protection). The biggest positive for him is the adventage over Medvedev, but seeing how Nadal 2019 clay points will stand longer than those from Daniil’s 2019 run, it may actually hurt his position.

Medvedev:
As I said before, when it comes to the events played he didn’t do too badly. The tour resumed during the period of his run and his case is mostly benefiting from keeping points from cancelled tournaments, but the fact that only 15.45% of his points are from the freeze (7th position, the biggest difference between the actual rankings and any other stat) prove that he is worthy of being the true #2. He’s also the only player who didn’t lose any points from 2020, though that’s kind of thanks to bad Rotterdam ”run” from that year.

Nadal:
Probably the greatest beneficiary of the system. No one else comes close to 3570 points he saved and he’s one of two players with over 1/3 of points from the protection.

Thiem:
Second most points saved from slams after Rafa. No two players next to each other have kept as many points in each category as them.

Tsitsipas:
More than 30% of points kept. Despite the AO SF run he’s the guy Zverev should be complaining about. His WTF run is the second biggest result protected and the biggest in which the player competed.

Federer:
The biggest percentage and the second biggest number of points saved (although just by 40 points), being the only top 8 player who moved up by two positions obviously helped, but the events that weren't played are the reason he's still in top 8. Even with AO 2020 it's still less than half (48,11%).

Zverev:
The one who lost the most.

Rublev:
It’s not much, but it’s honest work.

Wimbledon 2000 protected points shall be included in Novak’s total..

 

[N01E]

Wimbledon 2000 protected points shall be included in Novak’s total..

No, at max he can have 1000 points saved (if he doesn't play 2021 edition or it is cancelled) and that's the second ranking freeze (starting from Indian Wells) that I'll look at at the end of the year. As stated in the beginning of the thread, only events which ended up being played in 2020/2021 are counted.

Good job OP. Have they put a deadline on when this system will expire and whether it will default back to the previous system?

Unfortunately ATP keeps changing their minds about it. First drop was supposed to happen before 2020 ATP Finals, but they decided to leave it. Then the second drop was about to happen this week, but it was reduced to half, so full Indian Wells 2019 points will drop after Indian Wells 2022...

Scrap the COVID19 Ranking protection system and Fedr is OFF the ATP Ranking list. That's Zverev's point. And if it is as such (including AO21) Fedr would be somewhere between # 600-650 and without WCs he'd be toast.

Perhaps he will end up at Challengers IF he gets back at all from his "conditioning" adventure.

The problem with Zverev is that he merely made an observation and didn't propose any alternative. The only way to kick Roger out of top 10 would be to drop points from events that were cancelled and that would create an even bigger mess. It's better to have flawed data than no data at all.

Apart from a couple of special instances at the very top, the elephant in the room is that all those players were the biggest beneficiaries from the system.

The most hurt were the young up and comers that didn't have anything to "save".

ATP working tirelessly to promote tennis among the young.

And dropping points then would give a much bigger weight to events played and lead to completely unstable rotating rankings. The tour needed time to adapt and points should start dropping now (not by half) and there would be no issue as the schedule would allow same opportunity as every other year. There's no use in not dropping the points (event by event of course) now. One could make a case for tournaments that were rescheduled, but those were played after tour resumption and players knew the possibilities.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

And dropping points then would give a much bigger weight to events played and lead to completely unstable rotating rankings. The tour needed time to adapt and points should start dropping now (not by half) and there would be no issue as the schedule would allow same opportunity as every other year. There's no use in not dropping the points (event by event of course) now. One could make a case for tournaments that were rescheduled, but those were played after tour resumption and players knew the possibilities.

Unstable was never a problem unless, you guessed, you want to protect the top.

Other than that, I agree that the preserving of points should have been abolished at latest with the beginning of the new season.

 

[jm1980]

Nadal:
Probably the greatest beneficiary of the system. No one else comes close to 3570 points he saved and he’s one of two players with over 1/3 of points from the protection.

Federer:
The biggest percentage and the second biggest number of points saved (although just by 40 points), being the only top 8 player who moved up by two positions obviously helped, but the events that weren't played are the reason he's still in top 8. Even with AO 2020 it's still less than half (48,11%).

Like always, the biggest beneficiaries of the establishment are these guys

And here you see why Nadal has always advocated for a two-year points system

 

[jm1980]

Apart from a couple of special instances at the very top, the elephant in the room is that all those players were the biggest beneficiaries from the system.

The most hurt were the young up and comers that didn't have anything to "save".

This is self-evident. The longer existing points are preserved, the longer already established players stay at the top, and the harder it becomes for new players to break through

 

[N01E]

I just finished counting the impact of the second protection (added Berrettini). Don't have much time right now, so few mistakes are possible.



Second Protection:

Normal ranking (17.08.21):

1. Djokovic (12113):
23 (IW) + 45 (Miami) + 500 (Madrid) = 568

2. Medvedev (10620):
180 (MC) + 150 (Barcelona) + 90 (Queens) = 420

3. Tsitsipas (8350):
300 (Madrid) + 125 (Estoril) = 425

4. Nadal (7815):
180 (IW) + 360 (Wimbledon) + 500 (Canada) = 1040

5. Zverev (7250):
125 (Geneva) + 90 (Canada) = 215

6. Thiem (7005):
500 (IW) + 5 (Miami) + 45 (MC) +250 (Barcelona) + 170 (RG) + 5 (Wimbledon) + 90 (Canada) = 1065

7. Rublev (6005):
250 (Hamburg) + 170 (RG) = 420

8. Berretini (5533):
63 ( Phoenix CH) + 75 (Munich) + 125 (Budapest) + 125 (Stuttgart) + 90 (Halle) = 478

9. Federer (4215):
300 (IW) + 500 (Miami) + 90 (Madrid) + 215 (Halle) + 240 (Wimbledon) = 1345

Points from 2019/2020 50%:

1. Federer (1345)
2. Thiem (1065)
3. Nadal (1040)
4. Djokovic (568)
5. Berretini (478)
6. Tsitipas (425)
7. Medvedev (420)
8. Rublev (420)
9. Zverev (215)


Percentage of points from 50% saved tournaments:

1. Federer (31.91%)
2. Nadal (13.31%)
3. Thiem (15.20%)
4. Djokovic (4.69%)
5. Berretini (8.64%)
6. Tsitsipas (5.90%)
7. Medvedev (3.95%)
8. Rublev (6.99%)
9. Zverev (2.97%)


Complete ranking protection:

1. Djokovic (12113):
180 (USO) + 1000 (Paris) + 525 (ATP CUP) + 500 (Dubai) + 23 (IW) + 45 (Miami) + 500 (Madrid) = 2773 (1180 + 1025 + 568)

2. Medvedev (10620):
820 (Cincy) + 480 (USO) + 230 (St. Petersburg) + 180 (MC) + 150 (Barcelona) + 90 (Queens) = 1960 (0 + 1540 + 420)

3. Tsitsipas (8350):
135 (Paris) + 1100 (WTF) + 205 (Marseille) + 300 (Dubai) + 300 (Madrid) + 125 (Estoril) = 2165 (1235 + 505 + 425)

4. Nadal (7815):
2000 (USO) + 250 (ATP CUP) +500 (Acapulco) + 180 (IW) + 360 (Wimbledon) + 500 (Canada) = 3790 (2000 + 750 + 1040)

5. Zverev (7250):
200 (ATP Finals) + 360 (AO) + 125 (Geneva) + 90 (Canada) = 775 (200+360+215)

6. Thiem (7005):
410 (Vienna) + 90 (Paris) + 15 (ATP CUP) + 1020 (AO) + 500 (IW) + 5 (Miami) + 45 (MC) +250 (Barcelona) + 170 (RG) + 5 (Wimbledon) + 90 (Canada) = 2600 (500 + 1035 + 1065)

7. Rublev (6005):
170 (Cincy) + 250 (Adelaide) + 160 (Doha) + 250 (Hamburg) + 170 (RG) =1000 (170 + 410 + 420)

8. Berretini (5533):
63 (Phoenix CH) + 75 (Munich) + 125 (Budapest) + 125 (Stuttgart) + 90 (Halle) + 540 (USO) + 10 (Paris) + 180 (Vienna) = 1208

9. Federer (4215):
90 (Cincy) + 360 (USO) + 400 (ATP Finals) + 720 (AO) + 300 (IW) + 500 (Miami) + 90 (Madrid) + 215 (Halle) + 240 (Wimbledon) = 2915 (850+720+1345)



Most points saved overall:

1. Nadal (3570 + 1040) = 4610
2. Federer (2470 + 1345) = 3815
3. Thiem (2430 + 1065) = 3495
4. Djokovic (2205 + 568) = 2773
5. Tsitsipas (2055 + 425) = 2480
6. Medvedev (1540 + 420) = 1960
7. Berretini = 1208 (would need to double check to be sure, but it’s unlikely for him to pass Medvedev)
8. Zverev (875 + 215) = 1090
9. Rublev (580 + 420) = 1000


Most points saved (on 16.08.21):

1. Nadal (3790)
2. Federer (2915)
3. Djokovic (2773)
4. Thiem (2600)
5. Tsitsipas (2165)
6. Medvedev (1960)
7. Berrettini (1208)
8. Rublev (1000)
9. Zverev (775)


Most points % saved (on 16.08.21):

1. Nadal (48.50%)
2. Federer (49.16%)
3. Thiem (37.12%)
4. Tsitsipas (25.93%)
5. Djokovic (22.89%)
6. Berrettini (21.83%)
7.Medvedev (18.46%)
8. Rublev (16.65%)
9.Zverev (10.69%)


Ranking without protection (on 16.08.21):

1. Djokovic (9340)
2. Medvedev (8660)
3. Zverev (6475) (+2)
4. Tsitsipas (6185) (-1)
5. Rublev (5005) (+2)
6. Thiem (4405)
7. Berrettini (4325) (+1)
8. Nadal (4025) (-4)
9. Federer (1300)