The Chances of Rafa ending 2009 number 1:

[clayman2000]

Just looking at the math here and it seems lie Rafa still has a great shot at ending 2009 no 1. Here it is:

Rafa has 12735 points right now. He will loose 2800 pts for skipping Wimby, and Olympic drop. Thats puts him at 9935 points. Here are his points to defend:
Canada Masters -- 1000
Cincy Masters -- 450
Paris Masters -- 250
Madrid 08 -- 450
USO -- 900
----------------------------
3050

Meaning to date he has earned 6885 points.

Now if Roger wins Wimby (im not saying he will) he will have 11220 points.
He will loose 200 points for the Olympics putting him at 11020. Here are his points to defend:
Canada -- 10
Cincy -- 150
USO -- 2000
Madrid 08 -- 450
Paris -- 250
Shanghai -- 200
Basel - 500
------------------------
3560

Meaning to dat Roger has earned 7460 points.... like i said thats if he wins Wimbledon, so if he looses to Haas he would be at 6180, and if he looses in the final, hed be at 6660

So... if Roger wins Wimbledon, Rafa would have to win roughly 600 pts then Roger. This is more than makeable especially when you consider Roger hasnt been the sharpest in the 3 setters this year

 

[フェデラー]

well that is hard to say. i mean rafa would have lost #1 before the semi's and Fed won Wimby, so If fed wins wimby his confidence will be unmatchable.

 

[lambielspins]

I hugely doubt it. The part of the year we are entering isnt Rafa's best at the best of times, and the part after the U.S Open gets even worse for him. I see Rafa ending this year #3 for sure.

 

[BullDogTennis]

it would have to be just short of a miracle for him to end up number 1...if he comes out FIRING he might can hold onto the 2. but i dont see him falling below 3.

 

[BurghKing]

Whether he finishes #1 or #2, that is not what is important to him. It's all about the titles, especially Grand Slam titles. The ranking is nice, I have a feeling he would rather have the trophies...

 

[TennisInPleasanton]

*** Rafa with his long rest between RG and the US hard court season wins USO '09 and completes a career GS faster than Agassi or Fed ***

hehe

 

[P_Agony]

Whether he finishes #1 or #2, that is not what is important to him. It's all about the titles, especially Grand Slam titles. The ranking is nice, I have a feeling he would rather have the trophies...

Those usually go together. The one who is winning most titles is the one most titles or most important titles is likely to be #1. Safina will very soon learn this too, as she will not stay #1 for long unles she's starting to actually win slams.

 

[Guru]

Doesn't matter who's ranked above him
we all know Nadal is the best player in the world.

 

[tacou]

Rafa should be in better shape than usual at the end of season so who knows

 

[P_Agony]

Doesn't matter who's ranked above him
we all know Nadal is the best player in the world.

He was until the FO. Right now, it's tough to call him the best in the world since he isn't even playing, and lost his 3 last matches (although 2 of those were exos).

However, I agree that until the FO Nadal was the best player in the world and by a large gap too. But you have to remember being the best isn't just about winning, it's also about taking care of yourself and making smart decisions about your career, both things Rafa failed at, and look now where he is :-(

 

[Guru]

Federer, Murray and Djokovic didn't beat him at the French
it was an upset win, maybe a fluke. Nadal still has a winning record against the top three.

 

[pame]

Federer, Murray and Djokovic didn't beat him at the French
it was an upset win, maybe a fluke. Nadal still has a winning record against the top three.

Well, "unfortunately", they don't call off a championship series because the favourite went out early, and other contenders didn't play him -- a loss is still a loss

 

[Guru]

Well, "unfortunately", they don't call off a championship series because the favourite went out early, and other contenders didn't play him -- a loss is still a loss

Yes but my point is he still has winning records against the top players
the only players you could dream of ranking above him, he has beaten when it's mattered.

He's beaten Federer on all three surfaces at Grand Slam events.

 

[Feña14]

I hugely doubt it. The part of the year we are entering isnt Rafa's best at the best of times, and the part after the U.S Open gets even worse for him. I see Rafa ending this year #3 for sure.

It's possible! Murray has quite alot of points to defend for the rest of the year though so I think it will be a battle between Federer and Nadal, wth Federer winning.

 

[geese_com]

I don't think he will end the year at #1. He has too many points to defend and Roger has more chances to pick up points.

 

[catspaw]

Federer, Murray and Djokovic didn't beat him at the French
it was an upset win, maybe a fluke. Nadal still has a winning record against the top three.

H2Hs are irrelevant when talking about the here and now. They're history and, in some cases - as with Federer - they go back a considerable number of years. Who is best NOW has nothing to do with who beat whom when - if it wasn't last week or last month.

As for the French, I can't be bothered to argue about that, except to say that it's all about who is the last man standing, not about who YOU think SHOULD have been there. That particular man didn't play well enough, and that's all there is to it.

 

[Leublu tennis]

Whether he finishes #1 or #2, that is not what is important to him. It's all about the titles, especially Grand Slam titles. The ranking is nice, I have a feeling he would rather have the trophies...

And I have a feeling that he would rather not go back to #2. He spent too many years there.

 

[JeMar]

And I have a feeling that he would rather not go back to #2. He spent too many years there.

Honestly, based on how laid-back he seems when he's off-court, I doubt he'll lose sleep over being number two again. He's said numerous time that rankings are just numbers and that his most important thing to think about is his next match. If someone like Federer said this, I may not totally believe him, but I can take Nadal's word on this.

 

[stanfordtennis alum]

chances are pretty high IMO.. will all depend if he can stay healthy

 

[sjam316]

In my opinion and i know sum players feel this way too, its more important to win a grand slam...in Nadal's case the USO...than to finish the year number 1. I mean if Nadal wins the USO and still sumhow ends up at #3 i think a lot of people wud view him as being better than Andy Murray (who im presuming wud b 1 or 2), the computer rankings are losing importance (exhibit A: Safina)

 

[flyer]

1!? no way

2 doubtful

3 most likely

4 possible

5 he'd have to miss a whole lot more of events

 

[Leublu tennis]

Yes but my point is he still has winning records against the top players
the only players you could dream of ranking above him, he has beaten when it's mattered.

He's beaten Federer on all three surfaces at Grand Slam events.

Thats in the past. There is a new Nadal now and its just a shadow of his former self. Maybe he will recover, and I hope he does, but right now he is slipping badly. Just think. He will not be #1 for even one year and is likely to fall to #3, which is where he hasn't been for, what, 4 years?

 

[grafrules]

I think he will end the year ranked #2 or #3. I know they disgarded the ATP Race but I am pretty sure Federer is now over Nadal in the equivalent of race points for the year so far, especialy if he wins the Wimbledon final as I fully expect he will. Nadal will not outperform Federer the rest of the year, let alone by the margin to overtake him no matter what shape or confidence he is in. Especialy the part after the U.S Open, even if Nadal were to have his best ever summer by far, which I am not expecting in the least, the part after the U.S Open is always mediocre at best for him. Whether Nadal is even #2 at years end, will depend alot on how Murray performs and just how well Nadal (and Murray) do this summer. The post U.S Open part of the year Murray will probably perform better, indoor type surfaces are Nadal's worst and always will be and Murray seems very comfortable on them.