The current Australian Open 2025 odds - fair?

[weakera]

Jannik Sinner +190
Carlos Alcaraz +210
Novak Djokovic +410
Daniil Medvedev +1000
Alexander Zverev +1200
Taylor Fritz +4200
Holger Rune +4500
Arthur Fils +4500
Jack Draper +4800
Stefanos Tsitsipas +5500
Frances Tiafoe +5500
Alex De Minaur +7000

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Most of the list makes sense but Rune and Fils being that high seems insane to me?

Rune lost 2R at the AO this year. So did Fils. Rune lost 1R at the USO and Fils lost 2R.

Fils winning some 500's has clouded the odds. He's accomplished nothing at Slams and Masters. I'd put Popyrin or Paul or Ruud at higher odds than him.

Rune also just ridiculous. I'd give Draper, Tiafoe or De Minaur the better odds.

 

[Sport]

Sinner is the undisputable first favorite. Fair enough to me.

 

[paolo2143]

At the moment i would fancy Fritz to get further than both Danii and Zverev as well as Rune

 

[edberg volleys]

Delete

 

[edberg volleys]

Seem right to me.

 

[Zardoz7/12]

Put Fritz above Medvedev and Zverev. Fritz has Zverev's number and Medvedev's form this season has been poor by his high standards.

 

[tudwell]

Feel like Alcaraz is way too close to Sinner there. I'd put him, Djokovic, Medvedev, and Zverev all around the same level of likelihood, well behind Jannik. Granted, should Alcaraz and Sinner actually meet, I'd peg it as a fairly 50-50 match. Edge to Sinner due to the speed of the surface, probably, but nothing that would make him the decisive favorite. But the thing is Carlos is way, way likelier to lose before making that meeting. Will be curious if they end up in the same half and Carlos avoids his bugbear Zverev.

 

[Sport]

At the moment i would fancy Fritz to get further than both Danii and Zverev as well as Rune

You kidding, right?

Both Zverev (Raz RG 2022, AO 2024, Sinner USO 2023) and Medvedev (Novak USO 2021, Raz USO 2023, Sinner W 2024) have defeated some big players in Slams.

What are those victories from Fritz in Slams against big players (Raz, Sinner or Novak)? ZERO.

Zverev + Medvedev >>>>>>> Fritz.

 

[Lleytonstation]

You kidding, right?

Both Zverev (Raz RG 2022, AO 2024) and Medvedev (Novak USO 2021, Raz USO 2023, Sinner W 2024) have defeated some big players in Slams.

What are those victories from Fritz in Slams against big players (Raz, Sinner or Novak)? ZERO.

Zverev + Mesvedev >>>>>>> Fritz.

Fritz is hard to read right now. Is it a push to the elite? Or is it just a good year with good circumstances. Hard to tell at the moment, but I know I would for sure put him above Med, who as of now, looks to be on a strong regression.

 

[Midaso240]

Fritz is a top 4 player on HC right now IMO, I don't think he can beat the top 3 on the list, but can beat anyone else so I think he should be higher. I'm a big fan of Alcaraz, but he's not a solid bet on HC yet I don't think. His odds should be a bit lower but he should still be a top 3/4 favourite

 

[nolefam_2024]

You kidding, right?

Both Zverev (Raz RG 2022, AO 2024) and Medvedev (Novak USO 2021, Raz USO 2023, Sinner W 2024) have defeated some big players in Slams.

What are those victories from Fritz in Slams against big players (Raz, Sinner or Novak)? ZERO.

Zverev + Mesvedev >>>>>>> Fritz.

You are right. The top 5 slam wins or even top 5 wins in general is missing with fritz.

Meddy was never too bad. I hope he can turn it around but not sure right now.

Zverev has turned it around. Even in 2023 usopen, the vocal minority sinner fanbase said sinner is favorite to reach semis at least of USO. But zverev stopped him.

It's almost on zverev and Alcaraz to stop sinner at AO. They are the young players who can go toe to toe with sinner from power standpoint and hopefully from stamina standpoint as well .


The fact is there are just very rare occurrences of tough competition for sinner in slams in 2024. Meddy is heavily declining and fritz top game isn't full proof. So it's back to zverev and Alcaraz