The curse at the USO on men's side after 2008

abmk

Bionic Poster
After Federer won USO in 07-08 (actuallly 04-08), no one on the men's side has won USO on consecutive occasions :

2009 : Delpo
2010 : Nadal
2011 : Djokovic
2012 : Murray
2013 : Nadal
2014 : Cilic
2015 : Djokovic
2016 : Wawrinka
2017 : Nadal
2018 : Djokovic
2019 : Nadal
2020 : someone who hasn't won a slam yet, Nadal not playing
 
Nadal didn't even play 2012, 2014, 2020 US Opens.
And he tore his stomach muscle during 2009 US Open.
Still won 4 US Opens and more to come....
 
Nadal didn't even play 2012, 2014, 2020 US Opens.
And he tore his stomach muscle during 2009 US Open.
Still won 4 US Opens and more to come....

nadal got smoked at 2009 USO by delpo.only serving was affected by stomach issue. would've lost anyway.
defending champ delpo didn't even play in 2010 when nadal won.

2010 and 2013, Nadal had cakewalks to the final. 13 got lucky with djokovic playing cr*p in 2 of the 4 sets (along with letting go off the grip he had in the 3rd set, granted Nadal was clutch)
2017 - easiest draw of this century along with agassi AO 03
2019 - again, pretty easy route to the final

least number & frequency of top 10nners faced/beaten among those who have won 3 or more USOs in open era.
 
nadal got smoked at 2009 USO by delpo.only serving was affected by stomach issue. would've lost anyway.
defending champ delpo didn't even play in 2010 when nadal won.

2010 and 2013, Nadal had cakewalks to the final. 13 got lucky with djokovic playing cr*p in 2 of the 4 sets (along with letting go off the grip he had in the 3rd set, granted Nadal was clutch)
2017 - easiest draw of this century along with agassi AO 03
2019 - again, pretty easy route to the final

least number & frequency of top 10nners faced/beaten among those who have won 3 or more USOs in open era.
Your definitely back let’s just say that lol.
 
For a moment, based on the title, I thought the curse was that Fed hasn't won it since 2008.

It's weird when you just look at the list of winners but when you remember how they unfolded it's not really surprising.

2009-2013 was mostly the B4 wrestling and jostling each other for the title, and from 2014 onwards each member of the B4 started succumbing to age, injuries, and upsets.
 
For a moment, based on the title, I thought the curse was that Fed hasn't won it since 2008.

It's weird when you just look at the list of winners but when you remember how they unfolded it's not really surprising.

2009-2013 was mostly the B4 wrestling and jostling each other for the title, and from 2014 onwards each member of the B4 started succumbing to age, injuries, and upsets.

2015 AO, 2016 AO - djokovic
2017 AO, 2018 AO - federer
2019 AO, 2020 AO - djokovic

2017 FO, 2018 FO, 2019 FO - nadal

2014 Wim, 2015 Wim - djokovic
2018 Wim, 2019 Wim - djokovic

so its definitely the curse of the USO
 
Yeah...He would be fighting against next gen for another USO title. Really sad. And I have a feeling he is not winning RG, so I don't even think he had any good reasons to skip USO.
Covid 19 not a good reason to skip ? It was a missed chance but still had a good reason.
 
2015 AO, 2016 AO - djokovic
2017 AO, 2018 AO - federer
2019 AO, 2020 AO - djokovic

2017 FO, 2018 FO, 2019 FO - nadal

2014 Wim, 2015 Wim - djokovic
2018 Wim, 2019 Wim - djokovic

so its definitely the curse of the USO
Not disagreeing but unlike the other three slams there hasn’t been a clear king at the USO since Fed in 2008.

AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
WC: Federer / Djokovic

Wimbledon comes close with Nadal-Federer-Nadal-Djokovic-Federer-Murray-Djokovic from 2008 to 2014.

What’s interesting with the USO is how Fed after five years of dominance seemingly just aged out of nowhere into irrelevance after 2009, making only one more final since then.

With no USO “king” to fill the vacuum left behind by Fed you’ve got Nadal and Djokovic left fighting for the title, both of whom are good enough to win it but evidently not good enough to win it back to back.

With Nadal it’s because he’s never been a consistent performer on hards in the first place even if (IMO) his highest level is on par with the HC GOATs, and with Djokovic something about the USO conditions just don’t work for him despite showing dominance in other, lesser tournaments with similar conditions. It’s not like the AO and RG where Djokovic and Nadal respectively are almost a lock for those titles by default.
 
Not disagreeing but unlike the other three slams there hasn’t been a clear king at the USO since Fed in 2008.

AO: Djokovic
RG: Nadal
WC: Federer / Djokovic

Wimbledon comes close with Nadal-Federer-Nadal-Djokovic-Federer-Murray-Djokovic from 2008 to 2014.

What’s interesting with the USO is how Fed after five years of dominance seemingly just aged out of nowhere into irrelevance after 2009, making only one more final since then.

With no USO “king” to fill the vacuum left behind by Fed you’ve got Nadal and Djokovic left fighting for the title, both of whom are good enough to win it but evidently not good enough to win it back to back.

With Nadal it’s because he’s never been a consistent performer on hards in the first place even if (IMO) his highest level is on par with the HC GOATs, and with Djokovic something about the USO conditions just don’t work for him despite showing dominance in other, lesser tournaments with similar conditions. It’s not like the AO and RG where Djokovic and Nadal respectively are almost a lock for those titles by default.
i'd say novak djokovic was problem for federer making another USO FINAL
2011 uso sf was real wasted chacne for federer
he choked badly damm 40-15
 
It's not a curse, but rather a set of results reflecting the oft-ignored reality that, contrary to received wisdom about clay/RG, the USO is the most physically demanding of the majors, yes especially for the older players. I'll just quote myself from earlier this year:

I used to buy into the chestnut about clay being the most physically demanding surface myself, but not anymore. Or at least I no longer buy that the FO is the most grueling of the 4 majors. Yes, as the least serve-friendly surface/major clay/RG demands more baseline rallies, but it's also the least stressful on the lower part of your body which should facilitate longevity and possibly offset the aforementioned stress from all that extra running. And as the slowest surface/Slam it also gives relatively lumbering giants like Gomez, A. Medvedev, Norman, Verkerk and Soderling more time to set up for shots, a luxury missing from the other three Slams.

So what's the correct choice? I say it's the USO, and yes I'm for real. The proof, to paraphrase another chestnut, is already in the pudding: we've got Rafa/Evert as the King/Queen of RG, Novak/Court at the AO, Fed/Pete/Navratilova at Wimbledon and... who at the USO? Guess you could go all the way back to Tilden, but no one among the more recent guys/gals stands out, at least not to the same extent as at the other majors. But how come? DecoTurf, supposedly faster than Rebound Ace/Plexicushion, should be more conducive to attacking tennis which in turn should have led to more consistent dominance, but that's not what we actually have so far. Then maybe it's the higher bounce? Not when you peruse the resumes of such dirtballers as Muster, Moya, Costa, Berasategui, etc. Then what?

The answer, I think, is none other than the USO's physical demands, more precisely its late schedule which places it smack at the end of the long outdoor HC season. By then there's enough wear and tear across the board to make flashes in the pan less likely, while momentum players like Rafa and Guga tend to succeed more than you might expect from their surface-specific records. That I say more than anything is why it's been historically so hard to dominate the USO as much as the other three majors, and also what makes, respectively and arguably, Jimbo's insane consistency, Pistol's record # of finals and Fed's 5-peat at the event their single (mid-term) greatest achievement.

So it's not quite as simple as HC > clay or even the USO > the rest in terms of physical demands, but then reality never is. And that concludes yet another NonP (mini-)dissertation. :cool:

Of course one could/would point to Rafa's recent success as a glitch in the narrative, but in addition to the lackluster competition he has faced in his winning campaigns you can see that his schedule going into the USO was pretty light. Compare his '10 and '13 runs with his '17 and '19 ones in his 30s:

2010 - QF @ Queens's, W @ SW19, SF @ Toronto, QF @ Cincy
2013 - R128 @ SW19, but Ws @ Montreal & Cincy
2017 - R16 @ SW19 & Montreal, QF @ Cincy
2019 - SF @ SW19, W @ Montreal (but w/a bye in the SF)

So clearly less mileage in his later summer campaigns, which no doubt helped.

Speaking of who....

Covid 19 not a good reason to skip ?

The real reason for Nadal and most other players was not public health but getting into match-tough shape on such short notice. And given his historical reliance on momentum Rafa was probably not winning this USO even with Novak out. He made the right call to skip.

With Nadal it’s because he’s never been a consistent performer on hards in the first place even if (IMO) his highest level is on par with the HC GOATs, and with Djokovic something about the USO conditions just don’t work for him despite showing dominance in other, lesser tournaments with similar conditions. It’s not like the AO and RG where Djokovic and Nadal respectively are almost a lock for those titles by default.

Pretty sure Mac, Pete and Fed had a higher peak on HC and would beat Rafa at the USO more often than not, but I do give your boy the edge over Nole, cuz of said factors (summer momentum and higher bounce).
 
Pretty sure Mac, Pete and Fed had a higher peak on HC and would beat Rafa at the USO more often than not, but I do give your boy the edge over Nole, cuz of said factors (summer momentum and higher bounce).
This is why I said “IMO”, because the issue with comparing Rafa to HC GOATs like McEnroe and to a lesser extent Pete is that since there are differences in equipment and surfaces, and we have no idea how the matchup dynamic would’ve actually played out it just becomes a matter of who you like more winning hypothetical matchups 100% of the time. Plus, determining “peak” levels is just as reliant on the guy on the other end of the net getting clobbered as the guy whose peak we are measuring. You can compare ranks and names but that has no bearing on the actual level of the player on the day. But comparing them on an absolute level not adjusting for equipment and nutrition / fitness would likely be useless as well because someone like McEnroe would’ve been clobbered by just about everyone in your list including Nadal.

so yeah, Nadal’s best HC level being on par with the surface’s GOATs is just my opinion. There is absolutely no evidence I can point to that can objectively support that.
 
Joe's fault, shoulda dominated 2011-16. Recently it's injuries for either defending champ. 2017 - Djokovic not playing, 2018 - Nadal retires hurt, 2019 - Djokovic retires hurt, 2020 - Nadal doesn't play to avoid overexertion (call it covid exception).
 
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