The curse of the Don of Dunblane!

PSNELKE

Legend
So I ended up on MTF for the first time in like 5 years. I came across some highly interesting statistics.

Since Murray played Tsonga in the QF of Wimbledon in 2010, the highest seeds in Murray's section were eliminated before their potential QF match.
That's more than three years.


US Open 2010 - Berdych - lost to LLodra in R1 - Murray lost as well before the QF, since then he made it everytime at least to the QF so far

AO 2011 - Soderling AND Tsonga lost to Dolgopolov in R3 and R4 - QF opponent Dolgopolov - Murray wins in 4

RG 2011
- Almagro lost to Kubot in R1 AND Melzer lost to Rosol - QF opponent Chela - Murray wins in 3

SW19 2011 - Roddick lost in R3 to Lopez - QF opponent Lopez - Murray wins in 3

US Open 2011
- Soderling withdraws, replaced by LL da Silva, Del Potro loses to Simon - QF opponent Isner - Murray wins in 4

AO 2012 - Tsonga, Monfils, Simon eliminated before R4 - QF against Nishikori - Murray wins in 3

RG 2012 - ONLY tough QF draw since then - QF loss in 4 against CC specialist Ferrer

SW19 2012
- Roddick and Del Potro lost early - QF opponent Ferrer (never made it past the 4th round of Wimbledon before) - Murray wins in 4

US Open 2012
- Klizan took out Tsonga - QF opponent, mental midget, Cilic (Murray was actually on the brink to lose here, but of course Cilic found a way to lose)

AO 2013
- Del Potro and Cilic lost before R4 - QF opponent Chardy - Murray wins in 3

RG 2013 - did not participate

SW19 2013 - Tsonga, Cilic, Monace lost before R4 - R4 opponent de Schepper, QF opponent (grass court specialist Verdasco LOL) - Murray wins in 5


Now first of all, I'm not a Muzz hater, I actually like him (not his game), it's just that I can't believe this guys luck with the draws and especially how nicely they always open up for him.

US Open potential QF opponent this year - Berdych.
Interesting stat: Berdych only ONCE made it past the 4th round of the US Open in 10 years. That was last years SF against, right, Andy Murray.

I say the curse continues and Murray faces some random clown in the QF. :D
 

THESEXPISTOL

Hall of Fame
We all know Berdych performance is unpredictable, especially when we expect him to do well (for his standarts ofc). Thanks for the data no back it up.
 

topher

Hall of Fame
LOL, that's actually really funny. It's not like its improbable for that to happen, but that many times in a row certainly is. For example, I know Rafa/Novak/Fed have had their top seed show up in their last 3 slams (Novak's at Wimby, Fed's at RG, Rafa's at Wimby/AO '12), so for Andy to have a streak of 12 slams and counting is kind of unbelievable. Are you sure you're right?
 

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
The irony of it is, his draw opened up for him when he wasn't a champion, and now that he is, it doesn't matter who he faces.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
So I ended up on MTF for the first time in like 5 years. I came across some highly interesting statistics.

Since Murray played Tsonga in the QF of Wimbledon in 2010, the highest seeds in Murray's section were eliminated before their potential QF match.
That's more than three years.

But you've just shown there that Murray usually beats the high seed whenever he meets him!

US Open 2010 - Berdych - lost to LLodra in R1 - Murray lost as well before the QF, since then he made it everytime at least to the QF so far

So that is not an example. Murray didn't have to meet Berdych anyway. He got taken out by Wawrinka!

AO 2011 - Soderling AND Tsonga lost to Dolgopolov in R3 and R4 - QF opponent Dolgopolov - Murray wins in 4

Well, Dologopolov was obviously on a roll that year. But he still couldn't get past Murray! :)

RG 2011 - Almagro lost to Kubot in R1 AND Melzer lost to Rosol - QF opponent Chela - Murray wins in 3

2011 was actually Murray's best year on clay. He made the semis of both MC and Rome, took a set off Nadal at the former and almost beat Djokovic in the latter. On that form, I fancy he would have beaten Almagro or Melzer anyway.

SW19 2011 - Roddick lost in R3 to Lopez - QF opponent Lopez - Murray wins in 3.

Roddick was way past his best by that time and Murray much improved on grass (he had just won Queens for the second time), so I doubt he would have got past Murray like he did 2 years earlier.

US Open 2011 - Soderling withdraws, replaced by LL da Silva, Del Potro loses to Simon - QF opponent Isner - Murray wins in 4

Isner is actually a tough opponent on hardcourts, and even was back then. His serve was very much in evidence and Murray had a tough time breaking him. That was a long, draining match and left Murray with insufficient gas to face a well, rested Nadal in the semis the following day. So much for the luck of the draw!

AO 2012 - Tsonga, Monfils, Simon eliminated before R4 - QF against Nishikori - Murray wins in 3

Have you seen the H2Hs of Murray against Tsonga and Simon? But okay, I'll give you that one.

RG 2012 - ONLY tough QF draw since then - QF loss in 4 against CC specialist Ferrer

Well, we all know what Murray's general form on clay has been like. Other than 2011, he has never really had a good year on it. Still, he made the quarters that year.

SW19 2012 - Roddick and Del Potro lost early - QF opponent Ferrer (never made it past the 4th round of Wimbledon before) - Murray wins in 4

If Roddick was already past it the year before, how much more so in 2012 when he was just a few months short of retirement. De Potro was obviously out of form or injured as usual. Up to that point, he had only ever won 1 match against Murray in 6 meetings anyway and that one was on clay. Ferrer was the world #4 and always a tough guy to play on any surface.


US Open 2012 - Klizan took out Tsonga - QF opponent, mental midget, Cilic (Murray was actually on the brink to lose here, but of course Cilic found a way to lose)

I've already commented on Tsonga. As for Cilic, you might call him a mental midget, but he did straight-set Murray in an early round of the USO a few years before, so it's not like he had never beaten Murray at that venue. When he's on he can be dangerous as is obvious. He may well have choked but it was Murray's dogged determination to turn the match around that encouraged him to do so. The traditional mark of a great player?

AO 2013 - Del Potro and Cilic lost before R4 - QF opponent Chardy - Murray wins in 3

So Cilic would now have been a threat and not the habitual choker you called him earlier? As for Chardy, bear in mind he had straight-setted Murray just a few months earlier in Cincy. So, at that stage, he was a potentially difficult match-up for him.

SW19 2013 - Tsonga, Cilic, Monace lost before R4 - R4 opponent de Schepper, QF opponent (grass court specialist Verdasco LOL) - Murray wins in 5

Again, do you think Tsonga and Cilic would have beaten Murray? As for Verdasco, he was playing one of the best matches of his life against Murray that day and took him to 5. So much again for the 'lucky' draw. By the way, Murray played Youzhny in the 4th round, not de Schepper.[/QUOTE]

Now first of all, I'm not a Muzz hater, I actually like him (not his game), it's just that I can't believe this guys luck with the draws and especially how nicely they always open up for him.

Murray always has difficult draws. Have you ever seen him come sailing through a tournament without dropping a set or having to battle hard against someone, especially at a Slam? And when it comes to semis and finals, he is nearly always up against the best and often comes through. So it's not exactly like he can't handle the Big Guys, is it? :)

US Open potential QF opponent this year - Berdych.
Interesting stat: Berdych only ONCE made it past the 4th round of the US Open in 10 years. That was last years SF against, right, Andy Murray.

And Berdych is one of the few players who has enjoyed a cnsistently positive H2H against Murray. So what did that tell you?

I say the curse continues and Murray faces some random clown in the QF. :D

Don't think so. But this 'curse' seems to have started to work in Murray's favour only in the last 12 months, given that is when he finally started to win some Slams! :wink:
 
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Mainad

Bionic Poster
LOL, that's actually really funny. It's not like its improbable for that to happen, but that many times in a row certainly is. For example, I know Rafa/Novak/Fed have had their top seed show up in their last 3 slams (Novak's at Wimby, Fed's at RG, Rafa's at Wimby/AO '12), so for Andy to have a streak of 12 slams and counting is kind of unbelievable. Are you sure you're right?

Not sure what you mean. In his 7 Slam final appearances, Murray faced the top seed in 5 of them including the 2 he's played this year!
 

batz

G.O.A.T.
This is sweet, I was waitig for Mainad and/or batz to show up.

Doesn't need both of us. Mainad has already done a sterling de-bunking job ;)

The day Murray meets an unseeded player in a slam final (like Rafa, Sexi and Nole did when winning their 1st slam) is the day people can say he's had a bit of luck with the draw.
 
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fastgrass

Banned
I am very curious about what doggy pays main ad and
bat. z. to explain every statement in in reply
especially main ad posts only to defend doggy
I think his 80% posts are only for defending doggy!
really he is troll king on forum .
but at the end of the day its the matter of money
so don't ignore him please other members .
 

vive le beau jeu !

Talk Tennis Guru
so that's why players are afraid of drawing the muzzette ?

2mfcgag.jpg
 

topher

Hall of Fame
Don't think so. But this 'curse' seems to have started to work in Murray's favour only in the last 12 months, given that is when he finally started to win some Slams! :wink:

I didn't think this thread was about Murray being a lucky bloke or not deserving his just rewards, so much as the amazing coincidence that his destined high-seed QF opponent has failed to meet him in each of the last 12 slams.

Not sure what you mean. In his 7 Slam final appearances, Murray faced the top seed in 5 of them including the 2 he's played this year!

As I said above, I or this thread wasn't talking about slam finals but quarterfinals of the Top 4 seeds. Per the OP, Murray hasn't had the top seed of the quarter (excepting himself) meet him in the quarterfinal for 12 slams and counting - that's an amazing coincidence don't you agree?

So I ended up on MTF for the first time in like 5 years. I came across some highly interesting statistics.

Since Murray played Tsonga in the QF of Wimbledon in 2010, the highest seeds in Murray's section were eliminated before their potential QF match.
That's more than three years.

SW19 2012 [/B]- Roddick and Del Potro lost early - QF opponent Ferrer (never made it past the 4th round of Wimbledon before) - Murray wins in 4



Wait a sec, when I look at the Wimby draw in '12, it says Ferrer is seeded number 7. That would mean he was the highest seed in Murray's section and he did make it to the quarterfinals. Thus is this premise debunked??? Still kind of funny thread, but 11/12 times isn't as weird as 12 for 12.
 

PSNELKE

Legend
Wait a sec, when I look at the Wimby draw in '12, it says Ferrer is seeded number 7. That would mean he was the highest seed in Murray's section and he did make it to the quarterfinals. Thus is this premise debunked??? Still kind of funny thread, but 11/12 times isn't as weird as 12 for 12.

Well yeah, but what's funny is that he drew Ferrer who was probably the easiest highly seeded opponent he could have drawn. Heck Ferrer never reached a Wimbledon QF before. He's anything but good on grass.

Let's make it 11 1/2 / 12. ;)
 

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
Doesn't need both of us. Mainad has already done a sterling de-bunking job ;)

The day Murray meets an unseeded player in a slam final (like Rafa, Sexi and Nole did when winning their 1st slam) is the day people can say he's had a bit of luck with the draw.

That would make sense if Murray was making Slam finals left right and center. Except he hasn't.
 

Antonio Puente

Hall of Fame
What do you mean? He's made 4 out of the last 6 Slam finals and 2 out of 3 this year, so far! :confused:

I'm not exactly sure where Russ was going with it, but at roughly the same age, Murray has 7 slam finals - Djoker, 11, Nadal, 17.

Seven is nothing to sneeze at. It's the success rate more than anything.
 
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