Crionics
Semi-Pro
The current talk about Novak Djokovic’s future prospects reminds me a lot of all the hype surrounding stock markets at all-time highs (think 2000 or 2007); What could possibly go wrong back then ?! After all, the economy was booming and stock prices could only continue increasing.
Just like with the stock market, the perception of future results of current players is either overly optimistic when everything is going well (think Djokovic 2015 or stock market in 2000 and 2007) or overly pessimistic when everything is going down the drain (think Nadal 2015 or stock market in march 2009). Can we also talk about irrational exuberance to describe the prediction of future results of "hot" players?
Anyway, after seeing a topic about Djokovic winning 18 slams, I decided to look a bit more into numbers and found some quite interesting patterns. There is been a lot of talk about the number of slams won after the magic age of 28, but not so much about actual mileage. As a surrogate for mileage I take the number of matches played on the pro tour.
After his US Open 2015 win, Djokovic has played 812 matches on the pro tour. Where did Djokovic’s two biggest rivals, Federer and Nadal, stand in their careers with 812 matches played on the tour?
For Federer, his 812th match was actually his Wimbledon win against Roddick in 2009. After that, he went on to win "only" two slams.
For Nadal, his 812th match was the 2014 Miami finale which he lost against Djokovic. He only won one more slam after that (of course he can win more since his career is not over, but it doesn’t seem very likely at the moment).
Regarding the decline of both players, I think most people agree that Federer declined after AO2010 with many losses to former pigeons. The AO2010 was his 850th match on tour. For Nadal, it’s a bit more difficult to pinpoint the starting of his decline as he had a decline in two phases: a slow decline after the AO2014 loss (which was his 799th match on the tour) with some bad losses to former pigeons Ferrer and Almagro on clay, but he still managed to win Madrid, Roland Garros and made the finals of Miami and Rome, so not that bad really. But the real steep decline for Nadal started after Wimbledon 2014 with the Kyrgios loss which was his 840th match on the tour. Notice how close 840 is to Federer’s number (850). Despite Nadal playing a much more physical game, both Nadal and Federer started to decline with about the same mileage; in the meantime Federer has come back and reached several slam finals, but that’s another story.
After looking up the data for Nadal and Federer, I looked for data about Sampras and Agassi, the previous big rivalry in tennis.
For Sampras, his 812th match was the third round of Wimbledon 1999 which he ultimately won. After that Wimbledon title, he went on to win 2 more slams. The case of Agassi is more interesting as he won most of his GS titles later in his career after the magic number of 28 and he’s often being used as an exemple as to why Djokovic could also be winning many more GS titles as the latter gets older.
Agassi’s 812th match was an early round match in Rome in 2000. After that point of time, Agassi would win 2 more majors (just like Sampras and Federer actually). It gets often overlooked that Agassi missed many tournaments earlier in his career and had a lot less mileage when he reached the age of 28 years.
Sometimes, people also evoke that Djokovic could be dominating the tour at 30+ years like Serena has been doing the last couple of years on the WTA tour. Just for the heck of it, I looked at her numbers even though I don’t think you can really compare the WTA and ATP tour (especially when it comes to Grand Slams: winning in best-of-3 is not the same as winning in best-of-5). I was quite surprised to find out she has a lot less mileage as I would have expected given her age and many titles won over the course of her career: "only" 860 matches under her belt after the US Open 2015. Her 812th match was a Fed Cup match in February of this year. She went on to win two more slams after that point of time, which also means that she has won 19 majors out of 21 with less than 812 matches under her belt. Of course, she can still win more majors as her career is not over yet.
In summary, the number of majors won after playing the 812th match on tour is as follows:
-Federer: 2
-Nadal: 1
-Sampras: 2
-Agassi: 2
-Serena: 2
These numbers are of course subject to change for still active players. I quickly looked up the data for Borg and Connors: Borg didn’t even reach the 800th match on the tour and Connors won 3 more majors after having played his 812th match on the tour, so he did pretty well with a lot of mileage.
So what can we expect from Djokovic? There are still four more tournaments to be played this year: Beijing, Shanghai, Paris, WTF. Assuming he makes it deep (SF/F stage) in each of them, that’s about 15-20 more matches under his belt. He’ll start the year 2016 with about 830 matches on the pro tour. Factoring in the warm-up event (Doha?) he’ll probably play before the Australian Open, by the time he reaches the later stages of the AO he’ll have about 840 matches under his belt, a very close number to the 840/850 matches Nadal/Federer had played when they started to decline… So, next year will be very interesting!
Of course, I can hear some of you saying: « but!!!! there is no competition and all top players are old!!! who will be winning the slams if not Djokovic? »
To this question, I would answer « whoever is still in the draw » and it doesn’t really matter who wins it once Djokovic gets kicked out.
I remember two years ago people were saying all the upcoming Grand Slams in the 5 next years would either be won by Djokovic and Nadal. Well, Nadal lost this year to Berdych, Djokovic, Brown and Fognini and none of those players went on to win the actual slam (it’s quite ironic to note that the only time Nadal met Djokovic in a slam, the latter failed to win that actual slam).
About top players being quite old, this is true, but again let’s look at mileage (numbers taken shortly after US open, may be a bit different with Davis Cup matches and ATP 250 tournaments played since then):
Djokovic: 812
Federer: 1282
Murray: 701
Wawrinka: 606
Berdych: 806
Nishikori: 351
Nadal: 905
Ferrer: 944
Raonic: 302
Simon: 614
Gasquet: 652
Anderson: 367
Isner: 452
Cilic: 511
Goffin: 159
You see where I want to come: most of these players have quite a bit less mileage than Djokovic. Only Federer, Nadal and Ferrer have quite a bit more mileage while Berdych has about the same mileage as Djokovic.
My prediction is that we’ll see a sudden drop in Djokovic’s level with some unexpected losses before the French Open 2016. Maybe even an upset at the AO2016. I can see him losing to the likes of Anderson, Goffin, Dolgopolov or any good top-20 player for that matter (maybe not Gasquet though…).
Feel free to bump this thread in a year if I’m wrong
Just like with the stock market, the perception of future results of current players is either overly optimistic when everything is going well (think Djokovic 2015 or stock market in 2000 and 2007) or overly pessimistic when everything is going down the drain (think Nadal 2015 or stock market in march 2009). Can we also talk about irrational exuberance to describe the prediction of future results of "hot" players?
Anyway, after seeing a topic about Djokovic winning 18 slams, I decided to look a bit more into numbers and found some quite interesting patterns. There is been a lot of talk about the number of slams won after the magic age of 28, but not so much about actual mileage. As a surrogate for mileage I take the number of matches played on the pro tour.
After his US Open 2015 win, Djokovic has played 812 matches on the pro tour. Where did Djokovic’s two biggest rivals, Federer and Nadal, stand in their careers with 812 matches played on the tour?
For Federer, his 812th match was actually his Wimbledon win against Roddick in 2009. After that, he went on to win "only" two slams.
For Nadal, his 812th match was the 2014 Miami finale which he lost against Djokovic. He only won one more slam after that (of course he can win more since his career is not over, but it doesn’t seem very likely at the moment).
Regarding the decline of both players, I think most people agree that Federer declined after AO2010 with many losses to former pigeons. The AO2010 was his 850th match on tour. For Nadal, it’s a bit more difficult to pinpoint the starting of his decline as he had a decline in two phases: a slow decline after the AO2014 loss (which was his 799th match on the tour) with some bad losses to former pigeons Ferrer and Almagro on clay, but he still managed to win Madrid, Roland Garros and made the finals of Miami and Rome, so not that bad really. But the real steep decline for Nadal started after Wimbledon 2014 with the Kyrgios loss which was his 840th match on the tour. Notice how close 840 is to Federer’s number (850). Despite Nadal playing a much more physical game, both Nadal and Federer started to decline with about the same mileage; in the meantime Federer has come back and reached several slam finals, but that’s another story.
After looking up the data for Nadal and Federer, I looked for data about Sampras and Agassi, the previous big rivalry in tennis.
For Sampras, his 812th match was the third round of Wimbledon 1999 which he ultimately won. After that Wimbledon title, he went on to win 2 more slams. The case of Agassi is more interesting as he won most of his GS titles later in his career after the magic number of 28 and he’s often being used as an exemple as to why Djokovic could also be winning many more GS titles as the latter gets older.
Agassi’s 812th match was an early round match in Rome in 2000. After that point of time, Agassi would win 2 more majors (just like Sampras and Federer actually). It gets often overlooked that Agassi missed many tournaments earlier in his career and had a lot less mileage when he reached the age of 28 years.
Sometimes, people also evoke that Djokovic could be dominating the tour at 30+ years like Serena has been doing the last couple of years on the WTA tour. Just for the heck of it, I looked at her numbers even though I don’t think you can really compare the WTA and ATP tour (especially when it comes to Grand Slams: winning in best-of-3 is not the same as winning in best-of-5). I was quite surprised to find out she has a lot less mileage as I would have expected given her age and many titles won over the course of her career: "only" 860 matches under her belt after the US Open 2015. Her 812th match was a Fed Cup match in February of this year. She went on to win two more slams after that point of time, which also means that she has won 19 majors out of 21 with less than 812 matches under her belt. Of course, she can still win more majors as her career is not over yet.
In summary, the number of majors won after playing the 812th match on tour is as follows:
-Federer: 2
-Nadal: 1
-Sampras: 2
-Agassi: 2
-Serena: 2
These numbers are of course subject to change for still active players. I quickly looked up the data for Borg and Connors: Borg didn’t even reach the 800th match on the tour and Connors won 3 more majors after having played his 812th match on the tour, so he did pretty well with a lot of mileage.
So what can we expect from Djokovic? There are still four more tournaments to be played this year: Beijing, Shanghai, Paris, WTF. Assuming he makes it deep (SF/F stage) in each of them, that’s about 15-20 more matches under his belt. He’ll start the year 2016 with about 830 matches on the pro tour. Factoring in the warm-up event (Doha?) he’ll probably play before the Australian Open, by the time he reaches the later stages of the AO he’ll have about 840 matches under his belt, a very close number to the 840/850 matches Nadal/Federer had played when they started to decline… So, next year will be very interesting!
Of course, I can hear some of you saying: « but!!!! there is no competition and all top players are old!!! who will be winning the slams if not Djokovic? »
To this question, I would answer « whoever is still in the draw » and it doesn’t really matter who wins it once Djokovic gets kicked out.
I remember two years ago people were saying all the upcoming Grand Slams in the 5 next years would either be won by Djokovic and Nadal. Well, Nadal lost this year to Berdych, Djokovic, Brown and Fognini and none of those players went on to win the actual slam (it’s quite ironic to note that the only time Nadal met Djokovic in a slam, the latter failed to win that actual slam).
About top players being quite old, this is true, but again let’s look at mileage (numbers taken shortly after US open, may be a bit different with Davis Cup matches and ATP 250 tournaments played since then):
Djokovic: 812
Federer: 1282
Murray: 701
Wawrinka: 606
Berdych: 806
Nishikori: 351
Nadal: 905
Ferrer: 944
Raonic: 302
Simon: 614
Gasquet: 652
Anderson: 367
Isner: 452
Cilic: 511
Goffin: 159
You see where I want to come: most of these players have quite a bit less mileage than Djokovic. Only Federer, Nadal and Ferrer have quite a bit more mileage while Berdych has about the same mileage as Djokovic.
My prediction is that we’ll see a sudden drop in Djokovic’s level with some unexpected losses before the French Open 2016. Maybe even an upset at the AO2016. I can see him losing to the likes of Anderson, Goffin, Dolgopolov or any good top-20 player for that matter (maybe not Gasquet though…).
Feel free to bump this thread in a year if I’m wrong
I also predict he won't win the French. The 3 slams I believe he will win are AO 2016, Wimbledon 2016 and AO 2017.
Or this prediction could go horribly wrong. 
