The Djokovic bubble, when will it pop? A prediction based on actual mileage

tennis_pro said:
No, but I saw you say that he's got another 5-8 Slams in him which is crazy. I'm not saying he'll start losing left right and centre from now on but get a little grip. There's a reason no-one won more than 2 Slams (apart from Connors who won 3 and mostly because Borg retired which left Mac in shatters for like 2 years) after playing their 812th match on tour. Just because the tour is a mess right now Djokovic has a better chance to win more but to assume he'll break Nadal's Slam count or even Federer's record is just pure blasphemy. Be objective.
Click to expand...

Less than a year ago, you predicted that Djokovic will end up with nine slams.
 
uliks said:
I think that lots of forum's decline theoreticians, astrologists, and age and mileage specialists will be very disappointed next year... LOL
Click to expand...

I think many of those were ecstatic during 2012-2014 Djokovic's slump (decline?), which made it much more painfull to accept that he rebounded and repeated 2011 "fluke" year.

Now, I don't think he's immune to ageing process, so if he declines next year, it will be kind of expected and rather normal, but there is always something or someone that goes against the norm. So, let us all just be patient, instead of jumping to conclusions.
 
veroniquem said:
This is the average age of slam winners per season:
1970: 27.7
1971: 28
1972: 30.5
1973: 27.7
1974: 20.7
1975: 26.5
1976: 22.7
1977: 23.6
1978: 24
1979: 23.2
1980: 23.7
1981: 22.7
1982: 24.7
1983: 24.2
1984: 23.5
1985: 20.2
1986: 23.3
1987: 24.2
1988: 23
1989: 21.7
1990: 25.5
1991: 22.5
1992: 22.5
1993: 21.7
1994: 22.7
1995: 24.5
1996: 24.7
1997: 23.5
1998: 25.5
1999: 27.2
2000: 25
2001: 25.7
2002: 26
2003: 24.2
2004: 23
2005: 22.7
2006: 23.2
2007: 24.2
2008: 22.7
2009: 24
2010: 25
2011: 24
2012: 26.2
2013: 26.2
2014: 27
2015: 28.2

You read that right: 2015 is the second oldest average after 1972. It's all happening folks!!! Pretty soon you'll see players winning slam titles around their mid-30s again just like the beginning of open era! Will Djoko, with his diet from the future, herald that (re)new(ed) "super grandpa" generation???

And finally, a look at which slam a player is most likely to win in his 30s:
1- AO: 40%
2- USO: 26.6%
3- RG: 20%
4- W: 13.3%
(sorry Roger, not looking so good for your prospects :p)
Click to expand...
Interesting thing is that ever since 2011, the year when Djokovic started winning Slams on a regular basis, the average year of Slam winners per season has been only increasing, from 24 to 28,2. A good response to the 812th match theory. :)
 
user said:
I think many of those were ecstatic during 2012-2014 Djokovic's slump (decline?), which made it much more painfull to accept that he rebounded and repeated 2011 "fluke" year.

Now, I don't think he's immune to ageing process, so if he declines next year, it will be kind of expected and rather normal, but there is always something or someone that goes against the norm. So, let us all just be patient, instead of jumping to conclusions.
Click to expand...

To know what is against the norm, don't look on the side of Djokovic. Look opposite.
 
Some would be grateful to significant efford from OP to put large amount of words into a mantra'' I wish... I Wish... Please could it be as soon as possible"....
I for one find that Mengele like research program transformed into a essay a bit scary. Oh, I forgot what place is this forum :eek:

As any sportsman , the object of your obssesion won't last forever, so be patient the fall will happen eventually.
 
jm1980 said:
Nadal has enjoyed 10+ years of dominance, specially on clay. Federer is even worse in this regard, we had 4/5 years completely dominated by him.

We Novak fans want a little more before he walks into the sunset :)
Click to expand...

Two more 3-slam seasons, including a couple of FOs, is all I ask for. Is that too much?

:)
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
Call me dramatic (because I am) but Djokovic would be better off not winning RG until it's the last Slam he wins (which would also be poetic).


I have a feeling that winning RG could be what does burst his bubble.
Click to expand...
Tbh Nathaniel I think I'd prefer Novak to win another 3-4 slams rather than win RG next year and that be his last ever major triumph. I don't give the Career Slam as much value as many other posters on here do.
 
Honestly it's a tough question, how much does it have to with actual match mileage vs. age? A player like Simon who is around the same age are they really fresher because they haven't played as many matches? They're still training and playing practice matches every day.
 
spirit95 said:
Great post

But why should matchplay have such a strong effect on the body? Are matches really that much more exhausting than age and day-to-day training?
Click to expand...
I always wonder the same thing. How can playing in a match be detrimental to one's health/longevity, but strength/fitness training and hitting sessions are not?
 
It will be interesting to observe. I have said before Wimbledon might become Djokovic Valhalla in his later years. It will be rediculous if he bags 4-5 Wimbledons. he is very comfortable on those azure green courts. They play nearly perfect for his all court game. Fantastic stuff happening there I have a feeling for several more years including a big loss or two.
 
This thread is of no use at all. You can't count oranges and apples saying it's 1 fruit.
Every player is different. Best proof of that is Roger Federer. Roger could actually win US Open this year ! He was hindered by his own mind, his fear and tension. If he would win this GS, all talk would be how Roger is greatest tennis player ever, but nobody would calculate in such way like OP did and said - by my calculations it is impossible !
Why do alway people calculate things that are in the norm, and not including things that stick out of it ?
 
OhYes said:
This thread is of no use at all. You can't count oranges and apples saying it's 1 fruit.
Every player is different. Best proof of that is Roger Federer. Roger could actually win US Open this year ! He was hindered by his own mind, his fear and tension. If he would win this GS, all talk would be how Roger is greatest tennis player ever, but nobody would calculate in such way like OP did and said - by my calculations it is impossible !
Why do alway people calculate things that are in the norm, and not including things that stick out of it ?
Click to expand...

This is what happens when a couple of uncharacteristic losses begin to happen.
 
tennisaddict said:
This is what happens when a couple of uncharacteristic losses begin to happen.
Click to expand...
But Novak had same kind of problems in RG for instance. And he wasn't old. Or any other player who choked. Truth be told, if you have proper athleticism (you don't have to be in your prime at all), only thing that matters is your mind and opponents mind. Nothing else.
 
uh oh, lots of replies! I don't have time to reply to everything, but I think some people missed the point: age and mileage are only somewhat correlated. For top players who play a full schedule during their whole career, it's closely correlated, but this is not the case for players who took a significant break from the tour (like Agassi and Serena).
So, if you take mileage instead of age, the patterns become much more clear: Agassi didn't win much more slams than Sampras or Federer late in the career if you define "late" by the amount of mileage and not age. All 3 of them won 2 slams. Even Serena won only 2 slams after having played over 812 matches, I was quite surprised to find out that number (she may of course still add to her slam tally).

The real interesting question underlying this topic is: is mileage a much better predictor for decline than looking at age?

Another interesting thought that occurred to me: could "old" players such as Murray and Wawrinka take fully advantage over the mileage differential they have with Novak next year? I think some people are underrating Murray, he has been improving slowly over the last 12 months and has pushed Novak quite a bit in Paris and finally won a title against him in Canada.
 
You're deducing mileage through matches played though rather than time on court or points played. Just a point (of mileage).

Yeah, I think mileage may be a better indicator than age.

Murray has it in him to win Slams even against Djokovic if Djokovic's level drops next year. Can Murray bring his level up to Djokovic's? I honestly don't think so..
 
Noelan said:
Some would be grateful to significant efford from OP to put large amount of words into a mantra'' I wish... I Wish... Please could it be as soon as possible"....
I for one find that Mengele like research program transformed into a essay a bit scary. Oh, I forgot what place is this forum :eek:

As any sportsman , the object of your obssesion won't last forever, so be patient the fall will happen eventually.
Click to expand...

Some idiot had to bring up Nazis, Godwin's law has been verified once more!

Thank you for your very insightful reply, but if you don't like this topic, maybe you can return to the other so relevant topics about who is GOAT, about peak Federer being better or not than peak Djokovic or peak Nadal and the myriad of other highly intellectual and original topics floating around on TTW :rolleyes:
 
Flint said:
I always wonder the same thing. How can playing in a match be detrimental to one's health/longevity, but strength/fitness training and hitting sessions are not?
Click to expand...

I also wondered this. I guess there are a couple of possible explanations: one can control the length of a training session but not the length of the match. This means that you could put too much stress on your body while a match drags on while you can limit the length of the training session as a function of what your body can support. Basically, you can plan and optimize your training sessions but not your matches.
Another factor are the nerves during a match and which are absent during training sessions. I guess all the stress/nerves takes eventually its toll on the mind.

Also for top players like Federer, Djokovic, Nadal being very dominant, it means they also have (or had) very packed schedules, with little resting time between each tournament which must also take its toll both physically and mentally.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
You're deducing mileage through matches played though rather than time on court or points played. Just a point (of mileage).

Yeah, I think mileage may be a better indicator than age.

Murray has it in him to win Slams even against Djokovic if Djokovic's level drops next year. Can Murray bring his level up to Djokovic's? I honestly don't think so..
Click to expand...

Yes, I completely agree. I take number of matches played as a surrogate for mileage. It's not so easy to find the time spent or the number of points on courts and make the stats.
And if you take time for instance, should you take the total time spent on court or the actual time the ball is in play? Some may say the actual time the ball is in play, but I don't think this is such a trivial matter, as the time between points still probably contributes to mileage (you have to deal with the stress/pressure between points, your muscles are still warm between points; you have to wait for the end of the match for the pressure to fall down and have your physio treatments)
 
Crionics said:
Yes, I completely agree. I take number of matches played as a surrogate for mileage. It's not so easy to find the time spent or the number of points on courts and make the stats.
And if you take time for instance, should you take the total time spent on court or the actual time the ball is in play? Some may say the actual time the ball is in play, but I don't think this is such a trivial matter, as the time between points still probably contribute to mileage (you have to deal with the stress/pressure between points, your muscles are still warm between points)
Click to expand...

Good points.

I've wondered if number of "big matches" comes into play with the mental aspect of tennis at the highest level. Can Federer realistically bring it now? He was physically and tennistically good enough to win the 2015 US Open final (147-145 total points won to Djokovic) but he ended up converting so few break points and only 1 of 11 against the second serve. He's taken many blows now. How many blows can one take...

Djokovic winning the 2014 Wimbledon final might have just been the most important win in his career.
 
Perhaps the inevitability that new challenges will arise often from following generations tends to coincide with that heavy mileage and with a heavy and punishing loss, swinging the momentum and crushing the aura.

With weak enough following generations, can we predict that Djokovic will make good for more than 2 additional Slam victories from this point on? Given the highly unusual circumstance that the generation that follows Djokovic's is highly dubious, I think we probably can — but 18 is a massive stretch, unquestionably.
 
Enter Young Goat Rising in 2016, and you get:

balloon_866d3d_970344.gif

E32E4DB9F72D4CC6A325E855B8F910AA.ashx
 
Last edited:
Nathaniel_Near said:
Call me dramatic (because I am) but Djokovic would be better off not winning RG until it's the last Slam he wins (which would also be poetic).


I have a feeling that winning RG could be what does burst his bubble.
Click to expand...

Complacency? Doubt it, because it's becoming possible that he can chase down Nadal and Federer.
 
125downthemiddle said:
Complacency? Doubt it, because it's becoming possible that he can chase down Nadal and Federer.
Click to expand...

One only needs to take their foot off the gas for a second and they can be overtaken and knocked off the edge and have to climb all the way back up again. I dunno, tennis is often fragile. If he has the AO as well then he might be more determined than ever to power through for a potential Slam, but then he tends to burn up too much energy when he wants something too badly.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
One only needs to take their foot off the gas for a second and they can be overtaken and knocked off the edge and have to climb all the way back up again. I dunno, tennis is often fragile. If he has the AO as well then he might be more determined than ever to power through for a potential Slam, but then he tends to burn up too much energy when he wants something too badly.
Click to expand...
Failing to win AO would mean less pressure at RG. Winning it will not burst his bubble. He has already achieved every personal dream a long time ago but is still winning many titles. We are in for a very interesting 2016...
 
Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil said:
Failing to win AO would mean less pressure at RG. Winning it will not burst his bubble. He has already achieved every personal dream a long time ago but is still winning many titles. We are in for a very interesting 2016...
Click to expand...

I think Djokovic will still be top dog but that there will be a lot of movement from about ranks 5-20.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
Good points.

I've wondered if number of "big matches" comes into play with the mental aspect of tennis at the highest level. Can Federer realistically bring it now? He was physically and tennistically good enough to win the 2015 US Open final (147-145 total points won to Djokovic) but he ended up converting so few break points and only 1 of 11 against the second serve. He's taken many blows now. How many blows can one take...

Djokovic winning the 2014 Wimbledon final might have just been the most important win in his career.
Click to expand...

Wimbledon 2014 saved his career. if he lost that his career was probably over. Mentally shot. He would have never had much success after that at the majors. He was on thin ice going into W14 hit rock bottom after FO14. He almost choked out W14. Also he does seem to get extra motivated at Wimbledon after the loss at the FO. Bad luck for Federer there imo. If Djokovic did not lose the French in 14 and 15 Federer prob bags 18.
 
Flint said:
I always wonder the same thing. How can playing in a match be detrimental to one's health/longevity, but strength/fitness training and hitting sessions are not?
Click to expand...
It's because number of matches played also includes that many number of time you do fitness training. A player has to be ready to play 5 sets if the need be for every match. So a lot of training goes into being fit for every match.
 
So after their 812th match, in GS,
-Lendl: 3 wins + 3 finals + 5 semis (11 semi or better)
-Sampras: 3 wins + 2 finals + 1 semi (6)
-Connors:3 wins + 1 final + 11 semis (15)
-Federer: 2 wins + 5 finals + 8 semis (15)
-Agassi: 2 wins + 2 finals + 4 semis (8)
-Nadal: 1 win + 0 final + 0 semi (1)
If we remove Nadal as the outlier here, the other 5 averaged 11 GS semis (5.2 finals, 2.6 wins) after their 812th match. I'll be quite pleased if Novak gets the average of almost 3 years reaching GS semis. The number of GS he wins will decide if he is just one of them or above them all.
So look forward to the post-812th era. Cheers. :D

Edit: corrected an error in the Lendl counts.
 
Last edited:
OhYes said:
This thread is of no use at all. You can't count oranges and apples saying it's 1 fruit.
Click to expand...

But if all other sorts of fruit have gone off after a particular amount of time (6 months) and a new fruit comes along which is not obviously much different to any sort of fruit then it would seem reasonable to assume that the new fruit will also have gone off after 6 months.

There is nothing special about Djokovic. There is no reason why he should be different
 
5555 said:
Can you provide a reliable source which confirms your claim?
Click to expand...
If you are referring to predictions of tennis experts, checking out a couple of older threads would be more than enough to confirm.
If you are referring to 10 Slams, watching 2015 US Open final again or entering Novak's Wikipedia page will confirm.
 
Those who are saying Djokovic peaked late so he will decline later, I have to say he couldn't peak any earlier because of the competition of the two greatest player of all times. Same goes for Murray and he is waiting to take over the crown when the Big 3 goes down. Book it, Murray is your World No.1 at the end of 2016. His reign will not last too long though as he is not very young either.
 
donquijote said:
Those who are saying Djokovic peaked late so he will decline later, I have to say he couldn't peak any earlier because of the competition of the two greatest player of all times. Same goes for Murray and he is waiting to take over the crown when the Big 3 goes down. Book it, Murray is your World No.1 at the end of 2016. His reign will not last too long though as he is not very young either.
Click to expand...
When did Djokovic peak for you? I know he has the record for the youngest semifinalist of all four Grand Slam tournaments, separately and consecutively, achieved in 2007-08. But his peak happened in 2011 and it seems a new one happened this year as well.
 
Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil said:
If you are referring to predictions of tennis experts, checking out a couple of older threads would be more than enough to confirm.
If you are referring to 10 Slams, watching 2015 US Open final again or entering Novak's Wikipedia page will confirm.
Click to expand...

Which older threads? If you do not provide a link to reliable source I will conclude that you have lost the argument.

I have found this link http://www.skysports.com/tennis/new...kovic-to-win-at-least-three-more--grand-slams It confirms that last year, Barry Cowan and Mark Petchey said that Djokovic will pick up many more slams.
 
spirit95 said:
But if all other sorts of fruit have gone off after a particular amount of time (6 months) and a new fruit comes along which is not obviously much different to any sort of fruit then it would seem reasonable to assume that the new fruit will also have gone off after 6 months.

There is nothing special about Djokovic. There is no reason why he should be different[/QUOTE]
Every player from Big 3 is special, I thought that much is obvious. Nadal, Roger, Novak, they are special in they own way which I don't have time to elaborate.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

killerboi2
Does mileage exist anymore?
2
Replies
51
Views
3K
ChaelAZ
ChaelAZ
D
When will the Djokovic Bubble Pop?
2
Replies
88
Views
7K
Noleberic123
Noleberic123
wangs78
Roger's mileage
Replies
1
Views
634
daddy
daddy
DeathGreetsMeWarm
The Djokovic bubble will pop once the Fed raises interest rates to normal levels
Replies
16
Views
1K
dr325i
dr325i
Fiji
Nadal, Djokovic and Murray have very few slam wins left....
2
Replies
72
Views
6K
Tshooter
Tshooter
Back
Top