The domino effect that we're possibly looking at

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
With the recent uptick that we're seeing in Europe, here is what could conceivabky happen in the next couple of months:

1) Madrid: the first domino to fall, obviously. With the resurgence of The Thing in Spain, it's doubtful that it will take place at the moment. It still could, I guess, but things aren't looking good. If this were the only one to fall, it wouldn't impact the rest of the season, though.

2) Roland Garros: the big one. They're desperate to hold the tournament at all costs, even going so far as trampling the whole Tour to reschedule it (they also want 60% attendance, which they won't get, in all likelihood). However, it has probably been rescheduled too late. The Thing is spiking up again in France with the holiday, and it will be much worse by the end of September. Pretty sure the organizers would be willing to hold the tournament even within a full-blown pandemic, but they may not get any choice in the matter. And if RG falls, the whole castle comes crashing down, imho.

3) Without RG, there's no reason to go to Rome anymore, and this would probably turn into a second-rate tournament at best (provided (a) the current situation holds in Italy, and (b) the tournament isn't cancelled anyway).

4) Should the whole European clay season disappear, there's a good chance a lot of Europeans players won't go to the US to play just one or two tournaments. If RG falls, that will probably be a wrap for the 2020 season (don't expect any indoor tennis at the end of the year).

Not saying that this will happen, only that it very well could. It would be ironic should the situation in New York be determined by what is going on in Europe, but this year has been so crazy that this would almost be par for the course at this point.

What I mean is, New York seems to have the situation under control (although the US as a whole obviously haven't), so the most important numbers are coming from Europe right now--even as far as the US Open is concerned. Should the situation get any worse in Spain, and especially in France, beware...
 
Barring a ban for the French government RG is taking place: they have decided to reschedule it when nothing was certain, and I don't see how that could have been the case, if they were not desperate.

Rome will take place, one way or another, again, barring a ban form the Italian government.

USO will take place, barring a ban from the NY authorities.

Do you see the trend there?

:cool:
 

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
Barring a ban for the French government RG is taking place: they have decided to reschedule it when nothing was certain, and I don't see how that could have been the case, if they were not desperate.

Rome will take place, one way or another, again, barring a ban form the Italian government.

USO will take place, barring a ban from the NY authorities.

Do you see the trend there?

:cool:
That is exactly what I'm saying, mind you--at least as far as RG is concerned. Depending on what the figures are in September, they may not have a choice, the government may take it out of their hands (see Madrid).
 
That is exactly what I'm saying, mind you--at least as far as RG is concerned. Depending on what the figures are in September, they may not have a choice, the government may take it out of their hands (see Madrid).
Yes, I was just addressing the general idea of the thread that one cancellation may lead to the others also being cancelled: I don't see that happening unless the governments themselves follow that path (possible, but not very likely).

That may lead to the situation where RG is cancelled, but Rome takes place, so let's start speculating whether Rome should be considered the real Major, if that is the case.

8-B
 

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
Yes, I was just addressing the general idea of the thread that one cancellation may lead to the others also being cancelled: I don't see that happening unless the governments themselves follow that path (possible, but not very likely).

That may lead to the situation where RG is cancelled, but Rome takes place, so let's start speculating whether Rome should be considered the real Major, if that is the case.

8-B
Oh, no, I never meant that Madrid's cancellation would lead to RG's, for example (sorry if this is what it felt like). However, I do believe that RG's cancellation may lead to players deciding that playing the reste of the season (ie the three tournaments left, basically) may not be worth the hassle.
 
Oh, no, I never meant that Madrid's cancellation would lead to RG's, for example (sorry if this is what it felt like). However, I do believe that RG's cancellation may lead to players deciding that playing the reste of the season (ie the three tournaments left, basically) may not be worth the hassle.
Well, that goes without saying (apart from players playing some home tournaments, I guess).

From decades the entire tennis calendar has been geared towards the smaller tournaments being a kind of a tune up for the Majors, so it stands to reason that if a Major on the surface is cancelled that would lead to other events on the same surface being abandoned as well, as they are seen as a preparation for it anyway.

:cool:
 

Tennease

Legend
With the recent uptick that we're seeing in Europe, here is what could conceivabky happen in the next couple of months:

1) Madrid: the first domino to fall, obviously. With the resurgence of The Thing in Spain, it's doubtful that it will take place at the moment. It still could, I guess, but things aren't looking good. If this were the only one to fall, it wouldn't impact the rest of the season, though.

2) Roland Garros: the big one. They're desperate to hold the tournament at all costs, even going so far as trampling the whole Tour to reschedule it (they also want 60% attendance, which they won't get, in all likelihood). However, it has probably been rescheduled too late. The Thing is spiking up again in France with the holiday, and it will be much worse by the end of September. Pretty sure the organizers would be willing to hold the tournament even within a full-blown pandemic, but they may not get any choice in the matter. And if RG falls, the whole castle comes crashing down, imho.

3) Without RG, there's no reason to go to Rome anymore, and this would probably turn into a second-rate tournament at best (provided (a) the current situation holds in Italy, and (b) the tournament isn't cancelled anyway).

4) Should the whole European clay season disappear, there's a good chance a lot of Europeans players won't go to the US to play just one or two tournaments. If RG falls, that will probably be a wrap for the 2020 season (don't expect any indoor tennis at the end of the year).

Not saying that this will happen, only that it very well could. It would be ironic should the situation in New York be determined by what is going on in Europe, but this year has been so crazy that this would almost be par for the course at this point.

What I mean is, New York seems to have the situation under control (although the US as a whole obviously haven't), so the most important numbers are coming from Europe right now--even as far as the US Open is concerned. Should the situation get any worse in Spain, and especially in France, beware...
Even if NY city is really under control, if players from "high cases" countries arrive in NY and probably carry THE THING with them while tested negative (and tested positive mid-tournament), it will be a disaster.
 
New York doesn't even have it under control, just desensitised to the numbers relative to other states. Still 500+ new cases a day, which in other regions of the world would be considered a disaster.
Sorry, but New York definitely has it under control. Go look at any chart of their daily cases or daily deaths, both have been completely FLAT for months now. That is the definition of under control. Hospitals have plenty of capacity and the positive test rate is hovering around 1%.
 
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merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
So much hypocrisy in the world.
Wild, animal alike contacty Team sports can take place but our dear tennis can't
You misunderstand. The act of playing tennis is just about as safe as can be. The problem is that, contrary to what happens with most other sports, tennis players come from all over the world and are constantly on the move, crossing borders, etc. (which means that they have many more chances of getting exposed to the virus than team players put in a controled environment--by several orders of magnitude, probably). The problem is definitely not with playing, it is with everything else, basically.
 
You misunderstand. The act of playing tennis is just about as safe as can be. The problem is that, contrary to what happens with most other sports, tennis players come from all over the world and are constantly on the move, crossing borders, etc. (which means that they have many more chances of getting exposed to the virus than team players put in a controled environment--by several orders of magnitude, probably). The problem is definitely not with playing, it is with everything else, basically.
Conducting tests at departure and arrival is not a rocket science
 

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
Conducting tests at departure and arrival is not a rocket science
I agree, it's not. Problem is, it's also not very useful, depending on how much time passes between each test. Basically, you could totally have a player get tested when leaving--negative. Gets infected at the airport or on the plane. Gets tested on arrival--negative again (too early for the virus to register). Turns into a superspreader and infects dozens or hundreds of people during the next week, all the while being aymptomatic or having symptoms so light that they don't feel anything. Gets tested as positive when they leave again, but by this time, it's too late--the dozens (or hundreds) of people that they've infected have all left to go their different ways, all the while testing negative. Get another superspreader in the lot, and there you go.
 
Sorry, but New York definitely has it under control. Go look at any chart of their daily cases or daily deaths, both have been completely FLAT for months now. That is the definition of under control. Hospitals have plenty of capacity and the positive test rate is hovering around 1%.
500+ new cases a day it what the charts say. So don't know what you're on about
 

Tshooter

G.O.A.T.
Barring a ban for the French government RG is taking place: they have decided to reschedule it when nothing was certain, and I don't see how that could have been the case, if they were not desperate.

Rome will take place, one way or another, again, barring a ban form the Italian government.

USO will take place, barring a ban from the NY authorities.

Do you see the trend there?

:cool:

The bar around the corner would be open but for the ban from NY authorities. The diner across the street would sittong customers nside but for the ban from the NY authorities. Most activities currently banned would be happening but for the ban from NY authorities.

Do you see a trend here ?

:cool:
 
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The bar around the corner would be open but for the ban from NY authorities. The diner across the street would havedining inside but for the ban from the NY authorities. Most businesses currently banned would be open but for the ban from NY authorities.

Do you see a trend here ?

:cool:
The point was the link between the different tournaments, or rather the lack thereof.

:cool:
 

Tshooter

G.O.A.T.
Sorry, but New York definitely has it under control. Go look at any chart of their daily cases or daily deaths, both have been completely FLAT for months now. That is the definition of under control. Hospitals have plenty of capacity and the positive test rate is hovering around 1%.
Yeh, we definitely have it under control. That’s why absolutely no one is concerned about sending their kids to school in a few weeks. And the plans for doing so are all good to go.



To the extent it’s “under control” is a direct function of social distancing, mask wearing and banned activities. And quarantine of people arriving from out of the Tri State Area. So bringing in hundreds of people from around the world some from hot spots, some that have tested positive and some that treat the virus as a joke increases our risk of not keeping it “under control.”
 

beard

Legend
Contact sports are palyed at a moment...
Why not a tennis?
Someone will say its traveling...
I looked at Flight Radar site, and see no commercial flights Europe-USA?
How can European players reach USA?
Is there any way business people to reach USA or vice versa?
 
O

Oceans

Guest
Pro Cycling events successfully completed in Spain, Italy and France.

Vuelta a Burgos 2020, Burgos Spain, 28/7-1/8
Strade Bianche 2020, Siena Italy, 1/8
Strade Bianche Women 2020, Siena Italy, 1/8
Route d'Occitanie 2020, Southern France, 1/8-4/8
  • With hundreds of riders, full entourages, doctors travelling in from all parts of the world (USA, UK, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Colombia, Russia, Germany etc) and on the move.
  • With all the big names.
  • With a few riders unsurprisingly testing positive as with every other sport and rightfully withdrawn into quarantine. Silvan Dillier, asymptomatic, tested positive before the Strade Bianchi (subsequent tests came back negative) and was pulled out.
  • With crowds. :eek:
  • With minimal outcry. :unsure:
Believe this is relevant with Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros scheduled in the future.
 
Pro Cycling events successfully completed in Spain, Italy and France.

Vuelta a Burgos 2020, Burgos Spain, 28/7-1/8
Strade Bianche 2020, Siena Italy, 1/8
Strade Bianche Women 2020, Siena Italy, 1/8
Route d'Occitanie 2020, Southern France, 1/8-4/8
  • With hundreds of riders, full entourages, doctors travelling in from all parts of the world (USA, UK, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Colombia, Russia, Germany etc) and on the move.
  • With all the big names.
  • With a few riders unsurprisingly testing positive as with every other sport and rightfully withdrawn into quarantine. Silvan Dillier, asymptomatic, tested positive before the Strade Bianchi (subsequent tests came back negative) and was pulled out.
  • With crowds. :eek:
  • With minimal outcry. :unsure:
Believe this is relevant with Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros scheduled in the future.
Apparently the local authorities haven't learned their lessons, despite of being one of the most affected areas of the world. Legendary lack of discipline. Your luck is that the virus needs time to snowball. That would happen in about a month or so. Just in time for their tennis tournaments.

:cool:
 

beard

Legend
Apparently the local authorities haven't learned their lessons, despite of being one of the most affected areas of the world. Legendary lack of discipline. Your luck is that the virus needs time to snowball. That would happen in about a month or so. Just in time for their tennis tournaments.

:cool:
I really hope state officials read this forum and catch common sense spreading among Federer fans... It's Worlds last chance to stop the disaster...
 

TennisManiac

Hall of Fame
Sorry, but New York definitely has it under control. Go look at any chart of their daily cases or daily deaths, both have been completely FLAT for months now. That is the definition of under control. Hospitals have plenty of capacity and the positive test rate is hovering around 1%.
Everything you said here is false.
 
It looks like both NY and Paris will go ahead. They are determined to MAKE it happen. How seriously either will be taken is in obvious doubt.
 
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jm1980

G.O.A.T.
It looks like both NY and Paris will go ahead. They are determined to MAKE it happen. How seriously either will be taken is in serious doubt.
They only won't be taken "seriously" by fans of a certain player if one of the rivals of said player wins them
 
But until top players don't show up it will be seen as a slam.
It will be seen as a Major in any event, top players or not, and there is no reason to think otherwise. I don't understand the comments about it not being a "full" Major. It is not like all the top players were playing in all the Majors before. In fact, in the recent 6-7 years all the top players were rarely presented in a good form in all the Majors, and sometimes not at all. That is how we ended up with this "separation", where two top players were splitting between them the majors clearly prioritising some over some others. I am a lot more livid about the situation as a whole right now and in general with the state of the game, with the Instagram generation not mounting any serious challenge than about whether a tournament or 5 will not have full fields for whatever reason (be it a global pandemic). IF it takes place it is a normal tournament. I am of the opinion that it is still too early for tournaments and I am afraid that other things than the common sense command what will happen.

:cool:
 

Lleytonstation

G.O.A.T.
It will be seen as a Major in any event, top players or not, and there is no reason to think otherwise. I don't understand the comments about it not being a "full" Major. It is not like all the top players were playing in all the Majors before. In fact, in the recent 6-7 years all the top players were rarely presented in a good form in all the Majors, and sometimes not at all. That is how we ended up with this "separation", where two top players were splitting between them the majors clearly prioritising some over some others. I am a lot more livid about the situation as a whole right now and in general with the state of the game, with the Instagram generation not mounting any serious challenge than about whether a tournament or 5 will not have full fields for whatever reason (be it a global pandemic). IF it takes place it is a normal tournament. I am of the opinion that it is still too early for tournaments and I am afraid that other things than the common sense command what will happen.

:cool:
Well as of now I can agree as I don't see it going as poorly as you and others think. That being said, if it does and withdrawals jack with the tourney more than just a bit... It will NOT be viewed as a slam. However, that is worst case scenario and I don't see it getting that bad.
 
One last thing. Has anyone considered the potential tanking because of the points? What incentive do Nadal, Medvedev, Berrettini etc have if they go down 2-0? Think about it now. It's a damn sham.
 

jm1980

G.O.A.T.
One last thing. Has anyone considered the potential tanking because of the points? What incentive do Nadal, Medvedev, Berrettini etc have if they go down 2-0? Think about it now. It's a damn sham.
The same thing that gave them incentive to not tank before: money.

Ranking points can't buy yachts
 

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
Well, looks like money wasn't enough for Nadal at least. So, that's three top 10's and five top 20's out (for now--let's see what news the next few days bring us).
 
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