The downfall of Thiem really puts the brilliance of Del Potro into perpective

How many Slams would Del Potro have won if he didn't have chronic injuries?

  • 1

    Votes: 3 5.1%
  • 2

    Votes: 9 15.3%
  • 3

    Votes: 20 33.9%
  • 4

    Votes: 12 20.3%
  • 5+

    Votes: 15 25.4%

  • Total voters
    59

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Unfortunately after struggling with a wrist injury, Thiem looks done and I'm sad to say I've given up on him coming back to the top of the game. I didn't expect such a swift downfall after how good he was for for about 5 years, from 2016-2020.

Then we see Del Potro who had at least 8 surgeries on his wrists and knees and how he came back at least twice to reach the top of the game after severe injuries.

  • 2010 - Has 1st surgery on right wrist after the AO
    • Ends 2010 ranked #258 in the world, comes back in 2011 and has decent season and ends 2012 ranked in the top 10 and 2013 ranked in the top 5
    • Has good Slam runs including the 2013 Wimbledon SF and deep runs in ATP Finals and Masters tournaments.
    • Wins bronze medal at the 2012 Olympics.

  • 2014, 2015 - Has 3 surgeries on left right wrist in these two years
    • Tries to come back in 2015 but only briefly and had to have another surgery. He was gone for 2 years from the game drops out of the top 500.
    • Comes back in mid 2016 and wins silver at the Olympics and helps Argentina win Davis Cup. Makes the QF of the USO.
    • Has an even better 2017 and 2018, makes the final of the USO in 2018, 2 other SFs of Slams in 2017 and 2018, and wins his 1st Masters title at 2018 IW. Ends 2018 ranked in the top 5.

  • 2019-2021 - Has 4 right knee surgeries
    • Comes back briefly in 2019 and makes QF of Rome and almost upsets Djokovic. Makes the 4th round of RG.
    • Knee injuries take him out the game and he didn't play another match for 3 years, which was one match at 2022 Buenos Aires

Seems he would achieved quite a bit more if it weren't for injuries and his ability to come back to the top twice shows how great he was.
 

The Guru

Legend
Yeah Del Po's an amazing talent and his ability to come back was exceptional. After most of Golden Gen + Fed were so good at recovery we forgot that for many players are never the same after serious injuries. Guys like Hewitt and Safin were massively derailed and that's been happening again recently with guys like Thiem, Raonic, Nishikori, and potentially Zverev too.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Unfortunately after struggling with a wrist injury, Thiem looks done and I'm sad to say I've given up on him coming back to the top of the game.
Some people were assuming he could make a comeback to the top 20 and possibly compete for some 250's or a 500 title. But I didn't know anyone believed he could ever get back to the top of tennis or anywhere near it.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Yeah Del Po's an amazing talent and his ability to come back was exceptional. After most of Golden Gen + Fed were so good at recovery we forgot that for many players are never the same after serious injuries. Guys like Hewitt and Safin were massively derailed and that's been happening again recently with guys like Thiem, Raonic, Nishikori, and potentially Zverev too.
Yea tbh, Nishikori probably maxed out what he was capable of because of his limitations against top guys and his injuries. I think he could have won a Masters title or two but Slams were always going to be difficult. Same for Raonic. It does feel like Thiem and Zverev are underachievers though. Zverev still has time to turn it around but the window is closing.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Some people were assuming he could make a comeback to the top 20 and possibly compete for some 250's or a 500 title. But I didn't know anyone believed he could ever get back to the top of tennis or anywhere near it.
I thought he could come back to the top 10 and at least have a few good runs in Slams. Even Nishikori did that.
 

InsuranceMan

Hall of Fame
I know sports fans love their reflections and hypothetical debates but I don’t think it’s possible to compare the two and try to analyze. Too many variables between the two cases, the difference in high level athlete’s bodies and health can be astronomical and I think it’s in bad faith to let article-level knowledge of the situation pollute one’s stock of each player. Just me though. Delpo was Delpo and Thiem was Thiem.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Delpo has his cryptonite Nole. Nole would have stopped him or Rafa or till 2016 Andy Murray. He won't skip past 3 of them to win slams.
It took Murray 10 years to get to number 1 ranking and win 3 slams. Delpo would be similarly crushed. Probably worse.
 

The Guru

Legend
Yea tbh, Nishikori probably maxed out what he was capable of because of his limitations against top guys and his injuries. I think he could have won a Masters title or two but Slams were always going to be difficult. Same for Raonic. It does feel like Thiem and Zverev are underachievers though. Zverev still has time to turn it around but the window is closing.
Just meant that those guys got hurt and were never the same not that they are on Thiem or Del Po's level
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Delpo is a different level than Nishokori, Thiem, etc

Pretty sure he would have had a better career than Murray and Stan, if not for injuries. He was a big threat on HC and could play on clay and grass as well.
Maybe a better career than Stan and slightly less than Murray? I voted for 3 Slams.
 

ND-13

Legend
Maybe a better career than Stan and slightly less than Murray? I voted for 3 Slams.

He may not have won as many masters as Murray but his peak was at a very high level. I feel he would have won more majors than Murray. When he plays at his best, he could come very close to matching the big 3 at their best.
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
only-one-alone-there-can-be-only-one.gif
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
He may not have won as many masters as Murray but his peak was at a very high level. I feel he would have won more majors than Murray. When he plays at his best, he could come very close to matching the big 3 at their best.
I think he could have snuck in a couple more Slams but it was always going to be tough with the big 3.
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
How many times was this topic discussed here?

Realistically speaking, go over the slams and tell me which ones you think he could have won. He wouldn't stand a chance at AO, RG or Wimbledon in any year, I simply don't see it happen. That leaves USO, but what reason would there be to favor him there over other players? The big 3 and Murray are clearly better than him, and beat him most of the time even when he was fully healthy. Against Djokovic he wouldn't stand a chance in BO5. USO 2018 was a totally embarrassing performance from him. So as I see, one more slam at best case.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
How many times was this topic discussed here?

Realistically speaking, go over the slams and tell me which ones you think he could have won. He wouldn't stand a chance at AO, RG or Wimbledon in any year, I simply don't see it happen. That leaves USO, but what reason would there be to favor him there over other players? The big 3 and Murray are clearly better than him, and beat him most of the time even when he was fully healthy. Against Djokovic he wouldn't stand a chance in BO5. USO 2018 was a totally embarrassing performance from him. So as I see, one more slam at best case.
He's 4-1 against Fedal at the USO. With him matching up great against Fedal and Djokovic's failures there, it's not hard to see him winning more there. It's clearly his best Slam.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
How many times was this topic discussed here?

Realistically speaking, go over the slams and tell me which ones you think he could have won. He wouldn't stand a chance at AO, RG or Wimbledon in any year, I simply don't see it happen. That leaves USO, but what reason would there be to favor him there over other players? The big 3 and Murray are clearly better than him, and beat him most of the time even when he was fully healthy. Against Djokovic he wouldn't stand a chance in BO5. USO 2018 was a totally embarrassing performance from him. So as I see, one more slam at best case.
Thank you friend. I think Nolefams and Rafans should unite when its some low tier players.
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
He's 4-1 against Fedal at the USO. With him matching up great against Fedal and Djokovic's failures there, it's not hard to see him winning more there. It's clearly his best Slam.
Nadal wasn't anywhere his best in these 2 matches, especially in 2018 when it was basically a walkover. Even Federer in 2017 had a back injury. And as you can see, he still lost in both tournaments, despite them being some of the weaker USO. Most years had stronger competition. With some luck he could have won 1 more, but that's it.
 

Cabeza del Demonio

Professional
Yeah, there was never a realistic chance of him becoming a consistent top player again. I'd just love to see one more big run at RG, one final act before he hangs up his racquet, because that can't be too far away now.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Nadal wasn't anywhere his best in these 2 matches, especially in 2018 when it was basically a walkover. Even Federer in 2017 had a back injury. And as you can see, he still lost in both tournaments, despite them being some of the weaker USO. Most years had stronger competition.
This is 100% true. Nadal in 2018 was tough competitor to Nole but he was not fit enough to reach semis. He reached semis and still somehow pushed Delpo to tiebreak in set 1. He retired in set 2. Nadal has rarely retired in set 2. Set 3 sometimes but not set 2.

Federer in 2017 I don't know. I wasn't watching him. But Nadal beat him in 4 so he was never going to win past Nadal.
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
This is 100% true. Nadal in 2018 was tough competitor to Nole but he was not fit enough to reach semis. He reached semis and still somehow pushed Delpo to tiebreak in set 1. He retired in set 2. Nadal has rarely retired in set 2. Set 3 sometimes but not set 2.

Federer in 2017 I don't know. I wasn't watching him. But Nadal beat him in 4 so he was never going to win past Nadal.
Federer had an injury, though he wasn't as terrible as some describe. That loss was mostly due to missing setpoints (as usual) in the third set tiebreak.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Nadal wasn't anywhere his best in these 2 matches, especially in 2018 when it was basically a walkover. Even Federer in 2017 had a back injury. And as you can see, he still lost in both tournaments, despite them being some of the weaker USO. Most years had stronger competition. With some luck he could have won 1 more, but that's it.
Del Potro beat Nadal 3 times in 2009 on hardcourt: Miami, Canada and USO. Nadal may not have been at his best in the USO match, but clearly it was going to be an uphill battle with Del Potro in that form. There simply is no denying how impressive Del Potro's 2009 USO run was, especially beating that version of Federer.
 

buscemi

Legend
How many times was this topic discussed here?

Realistically speaking, go over the slams and tell me which ones you think he could have won. He wouldn't stand a chance at AO, RG or Wimbledon in any year, I simply don't see it happen. That leaves USO, but what reason would there be to favor him there over other players? The big 3 and Murray are clearly better than him, and beat him most of the time even when he was fully healthy. Against Djokovic he wouldn't stand a chance in BO5. USO 2018 was a totally embarrassing performance from him. So as I see, one more slam at best case.
In 2018 Wimbledon, he lost a tight five setter to Nadal in the QF, who lost a tighter five setter to Djokovic in the SF, who won the title.

In 2013 Wimbledon, he lost a tight five setter to Djokovic in the SF.

In the 2012 Olympics at Wimbledon, he took Federer to 19-17 in the deciding set of the SF and then straight setted Djokovic in the bronze medal match.

I think del Potro with better movement, a better backhand, and an overall better game due to less time missed to injuries absolutely has a chance to win Wimbledon. 2018 in particular seems like a pretty solid possibility.
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
Del Potro beat Nadal 3 times in 2009 on hardcourt: Miami, Canada and USO. Nadal may not have been at his best in the USO match, but clearly it was going to be an uphill battle with Del Potro in that form. There simply is no denying how impressive Del Potro's 2009 USO run was, especially beating that version of Federer.
That's true, but my point is that he never really brought that form again, even when healthy. It was one great run, which was the exception rather than the rule. For most of the time, the big 3 and Murray still were better. Federer has a comfortable 18-7 lead in head to head.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
In 2018 Wimbledon, he lost a tight five setter to Nadal in the QF, who lost a tighter five setter to Djokovic in the SF, who won the title.

In 2013 Wimbledon, he lost a tight five setter to Djokovic in the SF.

In the 2012 Olympics at Wimbledon, he took Federer to 19-17 in the deciding set of the SF and then straight setted Djokovic in the F.

I think del Potro with better movement, a better backhand, and an overall better game due to less time missed to injuries absolutely has a chance to win Wimbledon. 2018 in particular seems like a pretty solid possibility.
So he would win vs both Nadal and Nole who is 7 times champion ? Even a good Delpo in 2013 couldn't hit past the wall that is Nole. I think one of the reasons Delpo never rose to the top was Nole. Time after time Nole took the best of Delpo and returned back. Remember Shanghai 2013. YEC 2012. These years Delpo was fit. But he won a total of 1 win vs Nole in IW. Immidietly lost to Nadal.
Delpo just like Thiem would have found out it's not enough to beat 1 between Nole and Rafa. He had to beat 2. And he would fail every time.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
That's true, but my point is that he never really brought that form again, even when healthy. It was one great run, which was the exception rather than the rule. For most of the time, the big 3 and Murray still were better. Federer has a comfortable 18-7 lead in head to head.
Djokovic matches up the best against Del Potro and then Federer, but even Federer lost to him twice in a Slam. Nadal had a negative h2h against him on hardcourt, 5-6, so Del Potro definitely was not someone he wanted in his draw at a hardcourt Slam. Del Potro was also capable of beating Murray when in form and on his game.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
So he would win vs both Nadal and Nole who is 7 times champion ? Even a good Delpo in 2013 couldn't hit past the wall that is Nole. I think one of the reasons Delpo never rose to the top was Nole. Time after time Nole took the best of Delpo and returned back. Remember Shanghai 2013. YEC 2012. These years Delpo was fit. But he won a total of 1 win vs Nole in IW. Immidietly lost to Nadal.
Delpo just like Thiem would have found out it's not enough to beat 1 between Nole and Rafa. He had to beat 2. And he would fail every time.
Yes Djokovic gave him the most trouble but if he avoided Djokovic in a draw, I could see it happening for him. Djokovic can't be there everytime to stop him especially in those years when he fell off.
 

buscemi

Legend
So he would win vs both Nadal and Nole who is 7 times champion ? Even a good Delpo in 2013 couldn't hit past the wall that is Nole. I think one of the reasons Delpo never rose to the top was Nole. Time after time Nole took the best of Delpo and returned back. Remember Shanghai 2013. YEC 2012. These years Delpo was fit. But he won a total of 1 win vs Nole in IW. Immidietly lost to Nadal.
Delpo just like Thiem would have found out it's not enough to beat 1 between Nole and Rafa. He had to beat 2. And he would fail every time.
A diminished del Potro was up two sets to one and lost 6-4 in the fifth set in the 2018 QF to Nadal. If del Potro is solidly better w/out the injuries, it's not hard to see him flipping that result. And del Potro played Djokovic twice on grass, w/del Potro losing that tight five setter against Djokovic at Wimbledon 2013 and straight setting him in the bronze medal match at the 2012 Olympics. Plus, Djokovic was still not fully back at Wimbledon 2018. So, yeah, I could see him winning that match, too.

I'm not saying that he would win both matches or win Wimbledon. I'm just saying that I don't think we can write him off as a potential Wimbledon champion if he remained relatively uninjured.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
A diminished del Potro was up two sets to one and lost 6-4 in the fifth set in the 2018 QF to Nadal. If del Potro is solidly better w/out the injuries, it's not hard to see him flipping that result. And del Potro played Djokovic twice on grass, w/del Potro losing that tight five setter against Djokovic at Wimbledon 2013 and straight setting him in the bronze medal match at the 2012 Olympics. Plus, Djokovic was still not fully back at Wimbledon 2018. So, yeah, I could see him winning that match, too.

I'm not saying that he would win both matches or win Wimbledon. I'm just saying that I don't think we can write him off as a potential Wimbledon champion if he remained relatively uninjured.
Djokovic in Olympics has never done well. He lost to Zverev as well. That doesn't count. Djokovic in slams met Delpo 4 or 5 times and soundly beaten him on every occasion. 2018 Nole wasn't back to 100% but he played 5.5 hr match so he was physically fit.
 

buscemi

Legend
Djokovic in slams met Delpo 4 or 5 times and soundly beaten him on every occasion.
Djokovic played del Potro once at Wimbledon, beating him, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-3. Even without getting into the Olympic win, that gives me a good indication that a relatively healthy del Potro would have had his chances against Djokovic at Wimbledon, particularly in a year like 2018 when Nole, while still great, wasn't completely 100% back yet.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
Delpo is a different level than Nishokori, Thiem, etc

Pretty sure he would have had a better career than Murray and Stan, if not for injuries. He was a big threat on HC and could play on clay and grass as well.

No overhyping please. He had a huge losing H2H against Murray BEFORE his injuries kicked in.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
Djokovic matches up the best against Del Potro and then Federer, but even Federer lost to him twice in a Slam. Nadal had a negative h2h against him on hardcourt, 5-6, so Del Potro definitely was not someone he wanted in his draw at a hardcourt Slam. Del Potro was also capable of beating Murray when in form and on his game.

He is 3-7 against Murray and was was 1-5 against him including the year he won the US Open.
 

Silverbullet96

Hall of Fame
Thiem hits harder than Del Potro (in terms of both topspin + pace) and that too with one hand, no wonder he's going to get injured.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
How many times was this topic discussed here?

Realistically speaking, go over the slams and tell me which ones you think he could have won. He wouldn't stand a chance at AO, RG or Wimbledon in any year, I simply don't see it happen. That leaves USO, but what reason would there be to favor him there over other players? The big 3 and Murray are clearly better than him, and beat him most of the time even when he was fully healthy. Against Djokovic he wouldn't stand a chance in BO5. USO 2018 was a totally embarrassing performance from him. So as I see, one more slam at best case.

prime level delpo could win USO 13 or USO 14 for instance.
he would beat djoko of USO 13 if he could take a significantly better djoko to 5 at Wim 13. nadal of USO 13 would be tougher, but still possible.
murray wasn't even in realistic contention for either.
fed not good enough

he'd have a shot at RG 15, Wim 16 and USO 16

he definitely takes another USO at the very least. a 3rd USO or a RG/Wim.

ending up with 3 slams IMO. 4 if he gets lucky.

USO 18 with a severely declined BH is not the drum to be beating when talking about 2009 delpo or an improved version (better serve)
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
That's true, but my point is that he never really brought that form again, even when healthy. It was one great run, which was the exception rather than the rule. For most of the time, the big 3 and Murray still were better. Federer has a comfortable 18-7 lead in head to head.

pretty sure delpo played just as well in RG 09.
and he was just 20 and improving at the end of 09 before serious injury.

he was playing a smidgen below that at Wim 13, RG 12 before issues.
If he was healthy, he'd have more runs like RG 09, USO 09 for sure.

while big 3 were better, delpo's prime level was better than Murray's at RG/USO. wouldn't rule out a win on grass/Wim either.
AO is the only slam where he strangely under-performed.
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
prime level delpo could win USO 13 or USO 14 for instance.
he would beat djoko of USO 13 if he could take a significantly better djoko to 5 at Wim 13. nadal of USO 13 would be tougher, but still possible.
murray wasn't even in realistic contention for either.
fed not good enough

he'd have a shot at RG 15, Wim 16 and USO 16

he definitely takes another USO at the very least. a 3rd USO or a RG/Wim.

ending up with 3 slams IMO. 4 if he gets lucky.

USO 18 with a severely declined BH is not the drum to be beating when talking about 2009 delpo or an improved version (better serve)
As I remember, Del Potro was healthy in 2013 (in fact it was one of his better years), yet lost to Hewitt in the second round. I would say it's safe to say he wasn't beating Nadal or Djokovic in this tournament.

I don't even need to mention USO 2018 in order to claim his head to head against Djokovic is totally one sided. I don't care how many times their matches looked close, what matters is that Djokovic always wins in the end. It's like the Federer-Wawrinka matchup, where you knew 99% of the time who would win it, doesn't matter how "close" it looked. So if Djokovic beat Wawrinka in USO 2013 semifinal, surely I would expect him to beat Del Potro, even if it would take 5 sets.

RG 2015 is just not serious to even discuss. He would need someone to take Djokovic out for him, and even if that somehow happened, I wouldn't favor him against Wawrinka. And most likely, he just loses to someone of Hewitt's level in an early round again. One pretty strong run in 2009 (and even there he ended losing the last two sets 6-1 6-4) doesn't make him some beast on clay.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
As I remember, Del Potro was healthy in 2013 (in fact it was one of his better years), yet lost to Hewitt in the second round. I would say it's safe to say he wasn't beating Nadal or Djokovic in this tournament.

I don't even need to mention USO 2018 in order to claim his head to head against Djokovic is totally one sided. I don't care how many times their matches looked close, what matters is that Djokovic always wins in the end. It's like the Federer-Wawrinka matchup, where you knew 99% of the time who would win it, doesn't matter how "close" it looked. So if Djokovic beat Wawrinka in USO 2013 semifinal, surely I would expect him to beat Del Potro, even if it would take 5 sets.

RG 2015 is just not serious to even discuss. He would need someone to take Djokovic out for him, and even if that somehow happened, I wouldn't favor him against Wawrinka.

delpo's BH was never the same after injuries in early 2010.
so even if he was healthy relatively in 13, its not the same.

delpo beat Djoko 2x in Oly in his prime years - 12 & 16 (grass and medium HC). and beat him on slow HC in 13 IW.
not like fed-wawa where wawa couldn't get a win on HC even vs well past prime YEC 14 fed or IW 13 fed who wasn't even playing that well.

delpo at USO 09 level is a level above 13 USO Wawa. not the same.
didn't a clearly better djoko take 5 sets to beat delpo in Wim 13 itself? and USO 09 delpo was even better while USO 13 djoko was clearly worse.

while it is true delpo has a matchup issue vs djoko, it would be lesser with a 2009 RG/USO level delpo. and djoko would need to play really well to beat him.
 
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RS

Bionic Poster
Unfortunately after struggling with a wrist injury, Thiem looks done and I'm sad to say I've given up on him coming back to the top of the game. I didn't expect such a swift downfall after how good he was for for about 5 years, from 2016-2020.

Then we see Del Potro who had at least 8 surgeries on his wrists and knees and how he came back at least twice to reach the top of the game after severe injuries.

  • 2010 - Has 1st surgery on right wrist after the AO
    • Ends 2010 ranked #258 in the world, comes back in 2011 and has decent season and ends 2012 ranked in the top 10 and 2013 ranked in the top 5
    • Has good Slam runs including the 2013 Wimbledon SF and deep runs in ATP Finals and Masters tournaments.
    • Wins bronze medal at the 2012 Olympics.

  • 2014, 2015 - Has 3 surgeries on left right wrist in these two years
    • Tries to come back in 2015 but only briefly and had to have another surgery. He was gone for 2 years from the game drops out of the top 500.
    • Comes back in mid 2016 and wins silver at the Olympics and helps Argentina win Davis Cup. Makes the QF of the USO.
    • Has an even better 2017 and 2018, makes the final of the USO in 2018, 2 other SFs of Slams in 2017 and 2018, and wins his 1st Masters title at 2018 IW. Ends 2018 ranked in the top 5.

  • 2019-2021 - Has 4 right knee surgeries
    • Comes back briefly in 2019 and makes QF of Rome and almost upsets Djokovic. Makes the 4th round of RG.
    • Knee injuries take him out the game and he didn't play another match for 3 years, which was one match at 2022 Buenos Aires

Seems he would achieved quite a bit more if it weren't for injuries and his ability to come back to the top twice shows how great he was.
This has been a asked a few times but good thread. One that hasn't is Wawrinka.
 

thrust

Legend
That serve and MONSTER forehand plus the mental toughness to win his first major final (against Federer in 5 sets no less), would have been enough to win several majors.

This guy is a true example of a great career derailed by injury.
True! From what I have read Lew Hoad was another great player whose career was cut short due to injuries. Perhaps their game style/technique contributed to their injuries? Some players just don't have a body type for playing some sports.
 

uscwang

Hall of Fame
Without major injuries, Delpo could have won 3~5 majors between WB and USO. His semifinal match against Novak in WB 2013 is one of the greatest matches of all time, likely denying Novak a title. His semifinal against Fed in London Olympics 2012 likely cost Fed a gold medal.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
He is 3-7 against Murray and was was 1-5 against him including the year he won the US Open.
Del Potro won 35% of his matches against Nadal, 30% against Murray, 28% against Federer and 20% against Djokovic, so Nadal was his best matchup with a 6-11 record.
 

buscemi

Legend
I think it's important to note that del Potro was barely over 21 years old when he had his first major injury on the heels of winning the U.S. Open and making the WTF final. By way of comparison, at the same age:

-Djokovic had broken through at the Australian Open but was at the start of a three year period of on-and-off struggles before huge improvements in 2011.
-Federer hadn't made a Major SF yet and was still more than half a year away from his Wimbledon title in 2003.
-Nadal had won the French 3 times and played Federer tough in the 2007 Wimbledon final but was still a year away from his Wimbledon win and 1.5 years from winning down under.
-Murray had made a U.S. Open final but was still about four years away from his 2012 breakthrough.

In other words, if del Potro hadn't been injured, given his age, one would expect some pretty significant improvements in his game from 2010-2012.
 
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