What are the odds that the early notification for completing the safety video fails... it's 11/29, Thanksgiving weekend... their office/help line will be closed till Monday... it's also awkward to be texting other players on Black Friday to see who got bumped since we only get our own scores. They should give us our early ratings on the 24th to be safe.
The dreaded EOY Rating thread
- Thread starter Brilliant
- Start date
schmke
Legend
Just imagine the confusion when someone gets their e-mail and goes to TennisLink and sees something different. Or they get the e-mail and tell their friends they got bumped up and their friends look at TennisLink and say "yeah right".
I think it was suggested elsewhere that the USTA was trying to raise metrics related to education, and that seems to be correct. To parrot the (local) party line, national sporting organizations were called to congress in the wake of the Larry Nasser scandal and were asked what they were doing to ensure that it wouldn’t happen in their sport and to come up with a plan to start doing so if they weren’t already. From the USTA’s perspective, they have no control over the pro’s, who are accredited by the USPTA and not the USTA, and their efforts to require these pros to complete safesport or similar courses were rebuffed. But after the USTA was hit with a $9,000,000 judgment after one of their coaches sexually assaulted a junior tennis player, they sought to boost their numbers by having adult players enroll in safesport.
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E.T.
Rookie
I don’t know if this link has been posted here previously, but it offers a little more in depth explanation of how the benchmarking process works. It also specifically states that appeals are automatically granted within .05 of range.
bobbybob14
Rookie
The nationals benchmark backwards is super interesting. I've never heard about part of the rankings before. I always just assumed they put more weight on postseason matches.
E.T.
Rookie
I assumed there was something like that because they attempt to equalize things across sections of the country. But that’s the first document I’ve seen that explains it in depth.
silverwyvern4
Semi-Pro
Wow where did you find it!
E.T.
Rookie
Random google search, go figure!
silverwyvern4
Semi-Pro
Tennis link is lagging severely for me right now. Maybe the computers are busy running the ratings!
CiscoPC600
Hall of Fame
This part of the season is always nerve wracking.
I'm 3.98 according to TR and 3.99 according to schmke. 17-3 in league (5 wins are mixed). 8-6 in tournaments (1 loss is mixed, 2 losses in 4.5 tournaments). No sectionals or nationals this year. What will happen..?
I'm 3.98 according to TR and 3.99 according to schmke. 17-3 in league (5 wins are mixed). 8-6 in tournaments (1 loss is mixed, 2 losses in 4.5 tournaments). No sectionals or nationals this year. What will happen..?
schmke
Legend
"The year end calculation requires large server capacity and speed"
Lord Of The Strings
Rookie
Yup. It's a bit frustrating for sure. I'm a 3.97 on TR, and 3.94 according to schmke. That said, I have multiple matches against self-rated players that aren't factored in for either as well as NTRP tournament play that isn't factored in.
FWIW, the year I was bumped to 4.0, I had a 3.49 on TR and a 3.51 according to schmke - and I was bumped up out of appeal range. I'm hoping for another year at 4.0, but I'm worried I won't get it.
silverwyvern4
Semi-Pro
how did you do agaisnt players that went to sectionals or nationals? that's apparently 50% of the final rating
CiscoPC600
Hall of Fame
I think you're safe, I was 3.97 or 3.96 the year before with no bump.
CiscoPC600
Hall of Fame
I did not play sectionals or nationals this year. I made 4.0 nationals last year so this year I couldn't re-join our team. Played for a different club all season instead.
silverwyvern4
Semi-Pro
how did you do in regular season agaisnt players that went to sectionals or nationals?
CiscoPC600
Hall of Fame
I only played 1 guy that went to nationals in singles. Lost 7-6, 6-4.
E.T.
Rookie
How did your section do overall at nationals? Were they in the top 4-6 teams? That might push your section slightly upwards. You might still be in appeal range even if you get bumped, though.
CiscoPC600
Hall of Fame
I think they placed 5th. But he was playing in the 40+ league. I'm not 40. I faced him in the 18+ league. Not sure if it matters?
MGArchitect
New User
I believe 40+ is still included as it considered "adult". it looks like the only results specifically excluded from the dynamic rating calculations are super senior, with other categories included in the "Final Dynamic Rating" depending on what your section decides.
silverwyvern4
Semi-Pro
Is there non-adult league? Youth league?
MGArchitect
New User
Senior, Super Senior, and Ultra Senior apparently. Guess after 60 you are no longer an adult...
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
Are the videos any good? I was not able to log in to see them.
silverwyvern4
Semi-Pro
Good for what?
This document seems like it might be pretty outdated. It mentions league divisions named "Senior" which as far as I know have not been named that for quite a long time. Who knows if any of the other details are still accurate. But it's interesting to see some specifics about how the national-level rating adjustments might work in practice.
E.T.
Rookie
If you’ve got more updated information, please provide a link.
Last year, I saw somebody who had a 3.5C rating play both 3.5 and 4.0 and get bumped down to 3.0. I also saw somebody with a 4.0C rating play both 4.0 and 4.5 and get bumped down to 3.5.
I am convinced that the USTA has something in place to catch people who try to inflate their rating so that they don’t get bumped down.
I am convinced that the USTA has something in place to catch people who try to inflate their rating so that they don’t get bumped down.
E.T.
Rookie
Yeah, match results, lol. They must’ve been getting the floor wiped in every match to get bumped down, even while playing up. It’s possible they played other 3.5’s who were playing up also in their “4.0” matches, and then lost badly enough to generate 3.0 level match ratings.
schmke
Legend
I show about 62K 2023 year-end 3.0C players. Of these, just under 3K were bumped down from 2022 year-end 3.5C. Of these, just over 100 played 4.0 during the year. So yeah, it happens.
And the majority my ratings agreed with the bump down or had them right on the edge with no special rule to catch them, just their results indicated a bump down was in order.
Now, over 90% of these situations were women, and an observation is that women tend to play up quite a bit, so it is likely that many of those 4.0 matches were played against 3.5s, and probably quite a few of the 3.0 matches were against 2.5s.
NattyGut
Professional
How would NTRP ratings ensure to first year USTA tennis player (TP) that his / her rating is secure where:
~TP truthfully completes form and is at 3.0S;
~TP joins team and is best player on team, including C rated players;
~TP plays 1S and loses
--TP losses are only to underrated players, recruited by "captains" that take their leagues VERY seriously;
--TP losses are to players 20 years younger.
The point about playing 1S doesn't matter (vs. playing line 2 Singles).
The last point is not really one that should be considered. You can lose to a grandmother with a walker who precisely places the ball or an erratic 20 year old rabbit and a loss is a loss. (Unfortunately WTN and UTR seem to factor in age... but NTRP is pure skill/results).
Being the "best" player on the team doesn't mean he's not a 3.0. They could all have C ratings of 2.6 and he's a 2.75.
The weakness of the algorhythm shows up in self-rated players vs. other self-rated players. In the scenario where one plays only self-rated players I don't think there can be any guarantee as to the accuracy of the rating.
Purestriker
Legend
How do you know they are underrated players? Age does not matter. Was your record at 3.0 what makes you think you were the best on your team?
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
I guess for the intended purpose. But I am not sure what the purpose of the videos were. One was supposed to be about "safety" so I assume it has to do with making sure you have the right shoes, stretch out/warm up, and clear stray balls off the court. But it seems common sense.
NattyGut
Professional
This is a hypothetic. In that hypothetical, the players are self rated players who self rated at 3.0 but played and won at 3.5. With only two matches left in the year, they join a 3.0 team. In this scenario, they play closer to 4.0 but are playing down as a self rated player recruited to play by an ambitious captain in a singles league. They play as the top seed in the only two matches on two different teams (both will very well-known captains who do this routine annually). The player loses in lopsided fashion for he is really playing a 3.5 - 4.0. There is no remedy for this in the system. The system has to treat the player as 2.5 based on the results.
Fixing this -- a self rated player that wins extremely lopsided matches in the first two games gets bumped by the system to 3.5. If the system is wrong, at the end of the year that player is bumped down to 3.0 and now has a computer rating. My guess is that the player would not be bumped down, having won all but one match at 3.5.
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NattyGut
Professional
All loses in this hypothetical are to self rated players. As for playing 1S, in a singles league, it would matter if you that player were meeting 3.0S rated that are in fact 4.0, and they win every match 6-0, 6-0. And as for age, if a player was 45 and only played in the 40 plus league, as opposed to the 18 plus league, I think there is a solid argument that the results would be different. But the preceding point about meeting first year self rated players that intentionally rate to low as a first year self rated player is most relevant here. Put differently, in this hypothetical, if the player only played the weakest 3.0C rated players that were indeed 3.0 v. playing 3.0S rated that were in fact 3.5-4.0, the system would have no algorithm to account for this discrepancy.
If those out-of-level S-rated people are playing to their true ability and winning 3.5 matches, their DNTRP would be very close to the DQ level and they would probably have a strike or two if they hadn't been disqualified already and the match would be rated as if you are playing someone well into the 3.5 range instead of a true 3.0. If they are people who are manipulating their scores and their rating to keep from being DQ'd at 3.0 and they have a rating in the 3.0 DNTRP range when they are truly 3.5, then no, there is no correction in the system for that. That's not possible, or at least, it's not possible without an investment in technology and AI that we'll never see in our lifetimes at the USTA.
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
If a 3.0S is playing and doing well in a 3.5 league they will get "promoted" to 3.5 before the new ratings come out. That said at the 3.0 level I think they give quite a bit of leeway before they promote or dq anyone maybe 3.25 or so. I think this is because USTA thinks someone can honestly be a 3.0 at the beginning of the year (or whenever they self rate) but improve quite a bit during the year into the 3.5 category.
NattyGut
Professional
This person joined in August 2024. This person then played 3.5 and won exclusively. In October the person dropped into a 3.0 team and beat everyone 6-0, 6-0. This nonsense goes on at 3.0 which is unfortunate for the USTA, if it truly cares about retaining members, for those who get greeted with this BS often quit before renewing again, and, further, the USTA knows about the offending teams, as they are all well known to the executive director of the USTA. It is total hogwash to try to rationalize this behavior, it is cheating.
NattyGut
Professional
The scheme is this -- the "godfather captain" running multiple teams finds very good players that should rate at 4.0 but they join USTA and, in a showing of a lack of integrity and honesty, apply to get a 3.0S rating. They play at 3.5 as much as possible on another team run by the same "godfather captain" running several teams but not playing on any of them. When needed to close out a winning season at 3.0, they mysteriously join the godfather captain's team with two matches left. Before long they have a dynamic rating close to 3.75 not 3.0S and those playing at 3.0S rating stand zero chance. The offending player dropping to 3.0 beats all 3.0 6-0, 6-0. The "godfather captain" should be disciplined as well as the deceptive self rating player(s) participating in the scheme.
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I think the USTA should cycle players back to 2.5 or 3.0 if they get bumped to 5.0. It would create a lot of interesting match-ups and strategy, keep people on their toes, and increase participation in 3.0 leagues, as players love to play against strong competition. Perhaps a bump to 4.5 could trigger the reset in certain areas.
schmke
Legend
The problem is the strike threshold for a 3.0 is way too high such that the player could win at 3.5 and not get 3-strike DQ'd, thus allowing them to go back and play 3.0.
It’s 3.30 to my knowledge.
NattyGut
Professional
After the drop from 3.5 (where he was winning) to 3.0 (where he dominated, losing 0 games in several matches) his dynamic rating is 3.6 to 3.7 ish (per tennis record).
Mind you that the captain running both 3.5 and 3.0 teams (both have the same name) instructed him to drop down to the 3.0 singles team with two matches left in the season. This was done successfully, as the offending team narrowly defeated another team by starting the offending player in both of the final matches (where he dominated, losing 0 games).
Relevant here is also the fact that the offending player admitted the captain recruited him, that he thinks he really is a 3.5 player, and that the entire scenario "lacked integrity." Mind you the captain doesn't play on teams, just recruits players and runs 3.0 to 4.0 teams for some weird form of self gratification.
Ideally, if the USTA was put on notice of the captain and player conduct here, they would closely monitor any self-rated player joining teams run by the offending captain.
Unquestionably, once the USTA is aware of the conduct of the captain, it has a duty, likely under consumer protection laws, to issue a formal notice to the offending captain that any future conduct that is similar to this instance would result in a lifetime ban from the USTA.
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schmke
Legend
Either:
- Tennis Record is woefully off, 3.6 to 3.7 would be clear strikes against the 3.0S and he'd have been promoted to 3.5 already
- You area/district is not checking strikes like they are supposed to and are turning a blind eye to the strikes
- The league is not an advancing league which you can't get strikes in
NattyGut
Professional
Where a player is winning all sets @ 3.5 and is winning all sets 6-0 @ 3.0, TR may not be woefully off. Possibly. But not certainly. Logically if no strikes and not advancing league TR COULD produce an accurate rating
Re: # 2, how would one gently nudge the ALM/ league coordinator to do their job and enforce the rules?
Do you have a resource to identify which leagues advance? Also a resource on how “strikes” work, especially how ALM / league coordinators monitor “strikes”? Is there a dashboard to monitor strikes or something? Thanks
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If the player is winning handily at 3.5, the estimate may not be woefully off IRL, but it is definitely woefully off from their actual calculated USTA DNTRP because, for whatever fault there is in the strike threshold for 3.0, it is NOT 3.60 or higher, which is a decent 4.0 level and 2 levels out of level for a 3.0 S.
NattyGut
Professional
how do we know what it is? It could be. It might be. We don’t know. The ratings aren’t disclosed and a shortcoming of the system. Add to it that I just learned strikes aren’t available in non advancing league play (still not sure which are advancing leagues) … and
… we are left with four known facts. The player believes he is 3.5 to 4.0, didn’t drop a set to a 3.5, and didn’t lose a game to a 3.0 … oh and he admitted the captain that recruited him encouraged him to make sure he self rated as a 3.0. The system doesn’t seem equipped to catch this as far as I am learning … oh well. USTA should work on this scenario. How?
If someone is showing that they are playing below their level as a first year self rated USTA member, bump them. Just move them out. Quickly. It’s bad for the USTA to even allow the appearance of this scheme to be permissible
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