The dreaded EOY Rating thread

You have to **** the bed not to get bumped up or stay the same, in general.

I saw a guy last year stay at 3.5 with an 0-10 record and a games won percentage under 30%.

In addition, it’s virtually impossible to get bumped up without playing up. Someone on my team went 13-1 in 3.0 last year, won 74.8% of their games, and didn’t get bumped up.

Yeah playing up definitely got me, but I won matches at 4.0 so I was good enough to play there. I've been blessed to play in sectionals both years I got the bump to the next level.

But I didn't win a match at 4.0 this year in a new section. Won like 35% of my games and only 1 set. It would have been even fewer games if my last opponent wasn't throwing games in my match. Unfortunately, that last match is probably going to be the difference between giving me a real chance at appealing.
 
Is there any 'decay' in USTA rating - ie, if I was bumped to 5.0 in Florida at the end of 2020, played matches at 5.0 in 2021 and unsuccessfully appealed down at the end of 2021, then played zero USTA matches in 2022, is there any chance my computer appeal would be more successful this year? or guaranteed to be just as unsuccessful as a year ago since no new match data?

basically asking because I'm probably not going to waste the money renewing my USTA account if I'm just going to fail another computer appeal and not have many USTA leagues / matches available to play
No 'decay' that I am aware of.
I am in the same boat... was bumped to 5.0 several years ago, and tried unsuccessfully to appeal down a couple of times.
Also once my rating finally expired after a few years I tried to self rate again, but after answering all the questions and looking like I would be able to rate at 4.5, it made me self rate at 5.0 since that was my previous rating.
Note that I had let my USTA membership lapse the year after I was bumped. So it seems like you can appeal and self rate even with a lapsed membership, although you can't join teams.
So you may as well let it lapse and then try appeal anyway just for kicks, but keep your expectations very low.
 
No 'decay' that I am aware of.
I am in the same boat... was bumped to 5.0 several years ago, and tried unsuccessfully to appeal down a couple of times.
Also once my rating finally expired after a few years I tried to self rate again, but after answering all the questions and looking like I would be able to rate at 4.5, it made me self rate at 5.0 since that was my previous rating.
Note that I had let my USTA membership lapse the year after I was bumped. So it seems like you can appeal and self rate even with a lapsed membership, although you can't join teams.
So you may as well let it lapse and then try appeal anyway just for kicks, but keep your expectations very low.

thanks, a stupid system that traps players at levels where leagues often don’t exist
 
thanks, a stupid system that traps players at levels where leagues often don’t exist

It’s a problem without a good solution.

If you let people stay 4.5s because of a lack of 5.0 leagues. The 4.5 league just becomes a 5.0 league and puts deflationary pressure on every league below them.

Do you just let some people dominate leagues forever so they can continue playing?
 
thanks, a stupid system that traps players at levels where leagues often don’t exist
We have people here in our local office who help certain teams better players stay at a level below where they should be. We have teaching pros playing 7.0 mixed. I am not joking. The same teams make it every year. Over and over. It’s a joke.
 
Not in every case. There’s a guy on my team who only played 3.0 until fall, has beaten moderate 3.5s in competitive matches, and they have him as a 4.0. That will not happen.

A double bump may not happen ... but IM Nevada district is going to get CRUSHED with bumps this year. At least on the men's side.
 
It’s a problem without a good solution.

If you let people stay 4.5s because of a lack of 5.0 leagues. The 4.5 league just becomes a 5.0 league and puts deflationary pressure on every league below them.

Do you just let some people dominate leagues forever so they can continue playing?
In Nevada, we have a 4.5+ league for the fall season. I don't know why other places don't do that.
 
In Nevada, we have a 4.5+ league for the fall season. I don't know why other places don't do that.

Because it is tank central: Non advancing league that counts towards YE ratings .... a LOT of people use it to manage their ratings ... do great in 40+ and 18+ and then mediocre or poor in Fall league to avoid a bump.
 
What do you mean by "CRUSHED with bumps?"

LV did really really well at sectionals and nationals .... that means that every player who played against any of those nationals players will get "upgraded" on their YE. That is part of the USTA NTRP tweaks as part of ratings at end of year.

So figure to see a much higher % of people getting moved UP across levels ... some who have no thought that they will get bumped.
 
It’s a problem without a good solution.

If you let people stay 4.5s because of a lack of 5.0 leagues. The 4.5 league just becomes a 5.0 league and puts deflationary pressure on every league below them.

Do you just let some people dominate leagues forever so they can continue playing?

I think if you’ve been bumped up for a year, and a gender-specific (ie men’s 5.0) league didn’t exist at new level in your area for that year, you should be granted an auto-appeal back down

or perhaps the highest level league in the area should be open on the upper courts (ie 4.5+) - it’s rather ridiculous to have a system where players in some smaller districts just disappear into a black hole where they cannot play USTA anymore / have no chance to get bumped back down / have no motivation to renew USTA membership (while people their same level that manage their rating a little better keep playing year after year)
 
I think if you’ve been bumped up for a year, and a gender-specific (ie men’s 5.0) league didn’t exist at new level in your area for that year, you should be granted an auto-appeal back down

or perhaps the highest level league in the area should be open on the upper courts (ie 4.5+) - it’s rather ridiculous to have a system where players in some smaller districts just disappear into a black hole where they cannot play USTA anymore / have no chance to get bumped back down / have no motivation to renew USTA membership (while people their same level that manage their rating a little better keep playing year after year)
5.0s are less than 2% of all players, so it's not something to worry too much about.
 
5.0s are less than 2% of all players, so it's not something to worry too much about.

until you’re one of the folks who used to play 20-30 USTA matches a year and hasn’t been able to play a match in 2 years, but appreciate your statistics

the current system is while I’ll never blame a 4.5 player for sandbagging / gaming the system - if you have a single season that’s a little too good, it might be your last - quite a disincentive to do your best at 4.5
 
I think if you’ve been bumped up for a year, and a gender-specific (ie men’s 5.0) league didn’t exist at new level in your area for that year, you should be granted an auto-appeal back down

or perhaps the highest level league in the area should be open on the upper courts (ie 4.5+) - it’s rather ridiculous to have a system where players in some smaller districts just disappear into a black hole where they cannot play USTA anymore / have no chance to get bumped back down / have no motivation to renew USTA membership (while people their same level that manage their rating a little better keep playing year after year)
I'm on the fence on this one...
On the one hand I'm in that exact situation where I can no longer play USTA, and let my membership lapse a few years ago. So I sympathize.
On the other hand in terms of numbers, this is not impacting a significant enough number of us where USTA is losing out a lot, so they probably just don't care.
And to be fair, many 5.0+ level players have no interest in USTA anyway and would not play even if there were leagues available.
I'm probably in that boat now; I have a great network of good players to practice and play matches against, and don't need USTA.
 
I'm on the fence on this one...
On the one hand I'm in that exact situation where I can no longer play USTA, and let my membership lapse a few years ago. So I sympathize.
On the other hand in terms of numbers, this is not impacting a significant enough number of us where USTA is losing out a lot, so they probably just don't care.
And to be fair, many 5.0+ level players have no interest in USTA anyway and would not play even if there were leagues available.
I'm probably in that boat now; I have a great network of good players to practice and play matches against, and don't need USTA.

fully in agreement that the USTA doesn’t care :)
 
I'm on the fence on this one...
On the one hand I'm in that exact situation where I can no longer play USTA, and let my membership lapse a few years ago. So I sympathize.
On the other hand in terms of numbers, this is not impacting a significant enough number of us where USTA is losing out a lot, so they probably just don't care.
And to be fair, many 5.0+ level players have no interest in USTA anyway and would not play even if there were leagues available.
I'm probably in that boat now; I have a great network of good players to practice and play matches against, and don't need USTA.
Where I am, if I get bumped to 5.0, I'm not playing any USTA tennis at all...there's zero team or tournament presence above 4.5. I'd be proud to get a 5.0C rating...and then immediately have very few options for any additional formal play. I'd still hit, of course, but it hurts to lose the small bit of formal competition that exists. To get that...well, I guess it's pickleball time.
 
Where I am, if I get bumped to 5.0, I'm not playing any USTA tennis at all...there's zero team or tournament presence above 4.5. I'd be proud to get a 5.0C rating...and then immediately have very few options for any additional formal play. I'd still hit, of course, but it hurts to lose the small bit of formal competition that exists. To get that...well, I guess it's pickleball time.

I half-jokingly tell people the only time I was a legit 5.0 (winning multiple matches at Florida sectionals at 5.0) was when I was a USTA 4.5, because I was in such good match shape playing competitive USTA matches every week

still hit / play every week, but less often and more casual, so without the USTA structure I’m now a 5.0C who’s in reality a good 4.5, instead of a 4.5S who’s in reality a serviceable 5.0

thanks USTA :)
 
Any idea what is causing the 2022 Projected Year End rating to be different from the 2022 Estimated Dynamic rating?
I think it is adjusted based on playoff results and matches you played against people who went to the playoffs
Also they probably calculate all your match ratings based on your opponents' and partners' whole season - whereas your dynamic calculations were based on their rating at the time you played them.
 
Why would a 5.0 even want to play in a 4.5 league? Wouldn’t it be boring? For instance, if the only league available to me was 4.0, I wouldn’t be excited about playing. I’d rather just do something else. That’s the price you pay for getting so good at something that no one is available to play you. Time to pick up another sport.
 
On TennisRecord they show "Projected Year End Ranking" with a confidence level (aka "Bump probability"). Anyone have experience with a "low", "medium" or "high" being accurate? Schmeke probably has some analysis on this but I couldn't find it.

It may be caching issue but the "Bump probability" for playing areas is out of sync to individuals. For example, if you view "John Doe" in TR playing area, his bump may be "Medium" but if you click on his name it will say "Very High".

The whole idea of USTA tennis ratings is fascinating. USTA should create a sportsbook with lines posted on individuals getting bumped or not, it would be so fun.
 
Why would a 5.0 even want to play in a 4.5 league? Wouldn’t it be boring? For instance, if the only league available to me was 4.0, I wouldn’t be excited about playing. I’d rather just do something else. That’s the price you pay for getting so good at something that no one is available to play you. Time to pick up another sport.

Every 5.0 who has posted on this topic has said that there are plenty of people in their area available and willing to play them and give them competitive matches. It could be a few other fellow 5.0's, or higher-end 4.5s who are of compatible skill, or doubles with a lower-end partner against two strong 4.5's, etc.

The problem is that in many areas USTA provides no opportunities to play those kind of matches within their rating system. Then that means that even when a 5.0 player's ability drops back to 4.5, they have no way to get back in.
 
Every 5.0 who has posted on this topic has said that there are plenty of people in their area available and willing to play them and give them competitive matches. It could be a few other fellow 5.0's, or higher-end 4.5s who are of compatible skill, or doubles with a lower-end partner against two strong 4.5's, etc.

The problem is that in many areas USTA provides no opportunities to play those kind of matches within their rating system. Then that means that even when a 5.0 player's ability drops back to 4.5, they have no way to get back in.
Spot on.
I got the bump to 5.0 in the year I turned 50, after about 10 years at 4.5.
Fast forward several years, and I guarantee you I'm not on an upward trajectory here in my mid 50's!
But I'm 'stuck' with my rating and have no USTA options. Which is fine, I have accepted that and moved on.
 
On TennisRecord they show "Projected Year End Ranking" with a confidence level (aka "Bump probability"). Anyone have experience with a "low", "medium" or "high" being accurate? Schmeke probably has some analysis on this but I couldn't find it.

It may be caching issue but the "Bump probability" for playing areas is out of sync to individuals. For example, if you view "John Doe" in TR playing area, his bump may be "Medium" but if you click on his name it will say "Very High".

The whole idea of USTA tennis ratings is fascinating. USTA should create a sportsbook with lines posted on individuals getting bumped or not, it would be so fun.

I don't think the "very low to very high" range is accurate. Have seen too many "very low" chances get bumped and some "high" chances stay the same.
 
Is there any 'decay' in USTA rating - ie, if I was bumped to 5.0 in Florida at the end of 2020, played matches at 5.0 in 2021 and unsuccessfully appealed down at the end of 2021, then played zero USTA matches in 2022, is there any chance my computer appeal would be more successful this year? or guaranteed to be just as unsuccessful as a year ago since no new match data?

basically asking because I'm probably not going to waste the money renewing my USTA account if I'm just going to fail another computer appeal and not have many USTA leagues / matches available to play
You don't have to have a bought and paid for active membership to appeal, just an account. Log in to your TennisLink account, and you can request the appeal without renewing your membership.
 
You don't have to have a bought and paid for active membership to appeal, just an account. Log in to your TennisLink account, and you can request the appeal without renewing your membership.

Thanks, yes you and one other person earlier in the thread mentioned this, which is news to me, and good to know
 
TR has me in the appeal available rating. I pray to God they're right for once.
You're going to be close since you were just bumped last year, but I'd say I doubt you will get bumped down or be able to appeal. One thing going for you is that you only have 3 matches, so your appealable range is wider. The first match was a close loss with a 3.5 partner to a 4.0 and 3.5, so it seems like it wouldn't affect anyone's rating much. Second match was that S-rate who got DQ'd shortly after your match. It's unfortunate you ran into him, but his rating was likely near 4.2 by the time you played him, so even a lopsided loss isn't going to push you down much. Third match was two top 4.0s who may have been doing a little ratings management with a close match, so that's a bad result for you in terms of getting bumped down. Again, you happened to run into some unfortunate matchups this season.
Last year they had me at like 3.4 and I got bumped to 4.0
Your record last year pretty clearly indicated that you were likely to get bumped. TR is most unreliable at predicting bumps. Your projected year end rating is 3.55, which they say is appealable, but I didn't think the appeal ranges were that big.
 
Why would a 5.0 even want to play in a 4.5 league? Wouldn’t it be boring? For instance, if the only league available to me was 4.0, I wouldn’t be excited about playing. I’d rather just do something else. That’s the price you pay for getting so good at something that no one is available to play you. Time to pick up another sport.

I'd say there's a smaller difference between 4.0 and 4.5 than 4.5 and 5.0 - especially if we're talking about non-superstar-5.0s like me that had consistently winning but by no means undefeated records in the years at 4.5 prior to being bumped

I had many, many high quality competitive matches, including losses, at 4.5 - even when I was better than I am now
 
You're going to be close since you were just bumped last year, but I'd say I doubt you will get bumped down or be able to appeal. One thing going for you is that you only have 3 matches, so your appealable range is wider. The first match was a close loss with a 3.5 partner to a 4.0 and 3.5, so it seems like it wouldn't affect anyone's rating much. Second match was that S-rate who got DQ'd shortly after your match. It's unfortunate you ran into him, but his rating was likely near 4.2 by the time you played him, so even a lopsided loss isn't going to push you down much. Third match was two top 4.0s who may have been doing a little ratings management with a close match, so that's a bad result for you in terms of getting bumped down. Again, you happened to run into some unfortunate matchups this season.

Your record last year pretty clearly indicated that you were likely to get bumped. TR is most unreliable at predicting bumps. Your projected year end rating is 3.55, which they say is appealable, but I didn't think the appeal ranges were that big.

Unfortunately, I think you're correct. The only other thing I got going for me is the tournament director of a tournament I played put the scores in wrong. So I have a lopsided loss to weak 3.5, but who knows how much tournaments count for ratings. Hopefully the computer can somehow place blame on my partner for the last match against the two solid 4.0s. He's a stud who is better than his TR rating shows.

It would be nice to go back down to 3.5 to make more friends in the area. I'm going to try my best to connect with the one captain in our flight who kept defaulting lines. Maybe he will let me play on his team where he just needs bodies so I can get more matches in in 2023.
 
Unfortunately, I think you're correct. The only other thing I got going for me is the tournament director of a tournament I played put the scores in wrong. So I have a lopsided loss to weak 3.5, but who knows how much tournaments count for ratings. Hopefully the computer can somehow place blame on my partner for the last match against the two solid 4.0s. He's a stud who is better than his TR rating shows.

It would be nice to go back down to 3.5 to make more friends in the area. I'm going to try my best to connect with the one captain in our flight who kept defaulting lines. Maybe he will let me play on his team where he just needs bodies so I can get more matches in in 2023.
Look for DE teams, too. They have a ton of matches and can be on evenings or weekends, so those teams always need big rosters.
 
I know some people are going to want to complain to someone above our local office about the rampant cheating. I know it’s fruitless. Anyone have any suggestions to where these complaints should go?
 
I know some people are going to want to complain to someone above our local office about the rampant cheating. I know it’s fruitless. Anyone have any suggestions to where these complaints should go?
Talk Tennis. Otherwise, its like complaining in the wind.
 
I know some people are going to want to complain to someone above our local office about the rampant cheating.
...
Anyone have any suggestions to where these complaints should go?

Step 1. File a "grievance" with your local league coordinator for USTA league. Each LLC probably has their own rules for the process.
Step 2. Follow @Purestriker advice and post new thread on TTW. Change the names and consider using "Becky"
Step 3. Provide updates on TTW.
 
I know some people are going to want to complain to someone above our local office about the rampant cheating. I know it’s fruitless. Anyone have any suggestions to where these complaints should go?

The trashcan ... nothing will come of it.

Now, if you can run a grass-roots campaign and get everyone in your local league to purposely tank against the "known cheaters" for an entire season then the problem is solved, they will all get bumped up and you can stop talking about them and move on to the next group of cheaters.
Rinse and repeat for a season or two and y'all will get bumped down, they will get bumped up and you can be the ones called cheaters for a season or two.
 
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I know some people are going to want to complain to someone above our local office about the rampant cheating. I know it’s fruitless. Anyone have any suggestions to where these complaints should go?
Unless you have a solution, it's going to be pointless to complain. The current system works for at least 95% of the people playing in the leagues (it's just that the people gaming the system get a lion's share of the attention...). Most attempts to "fix" the system like Moonie's are completely incoherent and actually far worse, at least the parts that can be deciphered from the aimless rambling.
 
The trashcan ... nothing will come of it.

Now, if you can run a grass-roots campaign and get everyone in your local league to purposely tank against the "known cheaters" for an entire season then the problem is solved, they will all get bumped up and you can stop talking about them and move on to the next group of cheaters.
Rinse and repeat for a season or two and y'all will get bumped down, they will get bumped up and you can be the ones called cheaters for a season or two.
Don't forget the TTW solution. Helps ease the pain and it's quite enjoyable to commiserate.
 
I know some people are going to want to complain to someone above our local office about the rampant cheating. I know it’s fruitless. Anyone have any suggestions to where these complaints should go?

Rampant cheating? There is not rampant cheating in USTA adult leagues.
 
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USTA sent me an email.

uc
 
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