The dreaded EOY Rating thread

S

SudsInABucket

New User
NattyGut said:
You still cannot identify how the new "S" player is supposed to pick up a few matches ... Simply unworkable for a new "S" to join and play in a league and they won't qualify for a tournament without a WTN ... so, the only viable option is a prerequisite tennis ladder for new "S" players before they can proceed in tourney or league play. Another suggestion that could work is for the new "S" player to play a couple of "C" players where he thinks he is going to play. But then again, the person that just wants to rate low and figure it out by playing up (and then called down when needed), won't care and will still underrate.

As for the captain at issue, the captain recruited four players to join the USTA. All 4 self rated at one level and all four played up, then were called "down" to play where they "S" rated. All but one of the four players will be bumped ... two possibly bumped from a full point not .5. The system does not assign "points" in non advancing play. When, as set forth here, the USTA recognizes this behavior, it would behoove them to put the offending captain (who openly and notoriously engages in this nonsense annually) to cease and desist and threaten a USTA lifetime ban.
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A singles flex league in the *******, Gladiator, has selfrate players play a rating match against someone at their level. The established player also send a report back on how the match did, in case the score doesn’t fully capture it. The league incentivizes players to play these rating matches by giving points that can be exchanged for a free season.
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
mpnv1990 said:
Always better to barely avoid getting bumped up than barely getting bumped up!
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I wouldn't have minded being a 4.5. I was a middle of the road to mediocre one for 7 years and had fun and won enough, but it didn't lead to a lot of team success.

Bumped down to 4.0 for 2024 my last six teams have gone to playoffs, three to Sectionals, and one to Nationals and I'd like to think me being a 4.0 helped contribute to that. That does mean a really busy tennis schedule though.
 
M

mpnv1990

Semi-Pro
schmke said:
I wouldn't have minded being a 4.5. I was a middle of the road to mediocre one for 7 years and had fun and won enough, but it didn't lead to a lot of team success.

Bumped down to 4.0 for 2024 my last six teams have gone to playoffs, three to Sectionals, and one to Nationals and I'd like to think me being a 4.0 helped contribute to that. That does mean a really busy tennis schedule though.
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I’m hoping for a busy schedule next year.

I wanna be some of the people I know where they skip sectionals/nationals because they go so much and it’s a pain.
 
silverwyvern4

silverwyvern4

Semi-Pro
A man on my mixed team got bumped up even though he had a computer rating from 2023 and didn't play any men's league this year???? I thought that was impossible
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
silverwyvern4 said:
A man on my mixed team got bumped up even though he had a computer rating from 2023 and didn't play any men's league this year???? I thought that was impossible
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I heard from another player where this happened. It could be that the e-mail sent out has a glitch and doesn't apply the rules that have a C rating being valid for several years. They should probably wait to see what is published for real on the 3rd.
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
Roforot said:
If he played mixed matches, couldn’t he get bumped and now have an M
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C ratings are supposed to stick with you a few years. From current regulations:

In the USTA League Mixed Division, an NTRP level will be calculated for participants who play in that
Division exclusively. Year-end ratings will be based on the final dynamic rating generated from local
league and championship level competition unless the player has a valid Computer (C) rating from a
previous year.

And elsewhere in the regulations it says a 2022, 2023, or 2024 C rating is valid for 2025 for players 59 or younger.
 
M

mpnv1990

Semi-Pro
Is it possible that the USTA has glitches when calculating year-end ratings?

Back in 2022, I knew somebody who got bumped up to 4.0, and Tennis Record had them at 3.04. I think their site is trash, but he had no basis for 4.0 based on results.
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
mpnv1990 said:
Is it possible that the USTA has glitches when calculating year-end ratings?

Back in 2022, I knew somebody who got bumped up to 4.0, and Tennis Record had them at 3.04. I think their site is trash, but he had no basis for 4.0 based on results.
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I'd be curious to know who it was if you don't mind privately sharing so I can see if I have an explanation or agree there was a glitch.
 
M

Moon Shooter

Hall of Fame
NattyGut said:
You still cannot identify how the new "S" player is supposed to pick up a few matches ... Simply unworkable for a new "S" to join and play in a league and they won't qualify for a tournament without a WTN ... so, the only viable option is a prerequisite tennis ladder for new "S" players before they can proceed in tourney or league play. Another suggestion that could work is for the new "S" player to play a couple of "C" players where he thinks he is going to play. But then again, the person that just wants to rate low and figure it out by playing up (and then called down when needed), won't care and will still underrate.
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yes to the later part. The vast majority of new players are not going to purposely throw games in order to get a lower initial rating and captains wont ask them to do that. And anyway if they are going to actually throw games, There is nothing usta can do about it. The self rate problems are overwhelmingly caused by bad design not dishonesty.
 
T

TennisOTM

Professional
Creighton said:
The guys you mention would never make it through districts and sectionals if they were inconsistent. If his results were truly a low 3.5 level no team would have him on their team as a ringer.

I think it’s easy to defend the hypothetical that doesn’t truly exist. But these clearly out of level guys typically play for the same teams over and over.

I just don’t see the value in letting a guy who is splitting sets with 4.5 guys play as a 3.5 just because he technically can self rate there. What’s even harder for me is that same 3.5 is getting beat at nationals.
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The system should automatically catch and correct a self-rated 3.5 who consistently demonstrates 4.5-level ability. The fact that it sometimes doesn't means that the rules and/or rating system should be improved. There are ways to do that without needing to rely on someone's subjective eye test.
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
mpnv1990 said:
Is it possible that the USTA has glitches when calculating year-end ratings?

Back in 2022, I knew somebody who got bumped up to 4.0, and Tennis Record had them at 3.04. I think their site is trash, but he had no basis for 4.0 based on results.
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I had his dynamic rating in 4.0 range at the end of 2022. So yeah, I think TR was just woefully off.
 
T

TennisOTM

Professional
TR's projected year end ratings just got posted!

My final dynamic rating on TR was >3.6 and indeed I stayed 4.0. But my projected year-end is well below the threshold at 3.37, oof.
 
E.T.

E.T.

Rookie
The projected year end ratings on TR seem wayyyyyy off in my area. Like .3 too high for everyone I know. It will be interesting to see what happens when ratings come out in a few days.
 
CiscoPC600

CiscoPC600

Hall of Fame
silverwyvern4 said:
Try sticking a paperclip in electrical socket to see what happens as well
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I’ve been to nationals in 4.0, made a deep run, there’s nothing for me anymore. I guess I could focus on tournaments instead of league.

E.T. said:
The projected year end ratings on TR seem wayyyyyy off in my area. Like .3 too high for everyone I know. It will be interesting to see what happens when ratings come out in a few days.
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Anyone have any idea why it’s way off?

It’s projecting 4.22 for me, when I’m a 3.98 currently and a 3.99 under @schmke.
 
T

The Viper

New User
TennisOTM said:
TR's projected year end ratings just got posted!

My final dynamic rating on TR was >3.6 and indeed I stayed 4.0. But my projected year-end is well below the threshold at 3.37,
Click to expand...

E.T. said:
The projected year end ratings on TR seem wayyyyyy off in my area. Like .3 too high for everyone I know. It will be interesting to see what happens when ratings come out in a few days.
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I'm seeing what ET mentioned in my area too. In some cases, TR has people leap-frogging entire levels because it gave them a +.4 bump for no discernable reason.
 
T

TennisOTM

Professional
CiscoPC600 said:
Anyone have any idea why it’s way off?
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I have a vague memory from last year that TR's initial year-end projections got changed when they later posted an update. Will have to keep an eye on it over the next several days.

In general, I think the year-end calculation is much harder to do, involving large scale iterative calculations.
 
E.T.

E.T.

Rookie
CiscoPC600 said:
Yep. Wonder if there’s any chance sneak peaks got it wrong.
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That would actually be hilarious… USTA releasing “early” ratings but getting them wrong. Doubt that’s the case though, TR seems to be spazzing with their calculations.
 
T

TennisOTM

Professional
CiscoPC600 said:
I’ve been to nationals in 4.0, made a deep run, there’s nothing for me anymore. I guess I could focus on tournaments instead of league.
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If you want to play 4.5 league, you don't have to appeal up. Unless the captains refuse to take you otherwise, which would be unusual I think.
 
CiscoPC600

CiscoPC600

Hall of Fame
E.T. said:
That would actually be hilarious… USTA releasing “early” ratings but getting them wrong. Doubt that’s the case though, TR seems to be spazzing with their calculations.
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It’s the first time they’re doing it. But I agree. Highly unlikely.

TR’s end of year ratings look accurate for some folks in my area though. I just spent 10 minutes going through tons of teammates and opponents.
 
G

Galvez24

New User
Some of TRs estimates are way off in my area. A 3.0C lady on my 7.5 combo team now has 3.7 and high confidence to be bumped to 4.0. Others that have no chance of getting bumped down, were lowered significantly
 
E.T.

E.T.

Rookie
Galvez24 said:
Some of TRs estimates are way off in my area. A 3.0C lady on my 7.5 combo team now has 3.7 and high confidence to be bumped to 4.0. Others that have no chance of getting bumped down, were lowered significantly
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It seems like the TR year end predictions are really off for anyone in my area who played in sectionals or districts. I suspect whatever calculation they try to use to apply weight to those results is what is causing such large variances. All of those players seem to be inflated by about .25 to .3 on average. Of course we won’t know for a few days until we see who actually gets bumped.
 
R

Roforot

Hall of Fame
CiscoPC600 said:
Debating appealing up. I know it’s dumb but want to see if I’m close as TR has suggested.
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You can choose to play up. But you may not be able to play w/ some of your other teammates if you are bumped up...

E.T. said:
It seems like the TR year end predictions are really off for anyone in my area who played in sectionals or districts. I suspect whatever calculation they try to use to apply weight to those results is what is causing such large variances. All of those players seem to be inflated by about .25 to .3 on average. Of course we won’t know for a few days until we see who actually gets bumped.
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I see it year end projections now...
once you're bumped up, are you the safe from another bump for a couple of years?
 
E.T.

E.T.

Rookie
Roforot said:
You can choose to play up. But you may not be able to play w/ some of your other teammates if you are bumped up...


I see it year end projections now...
once you're bumped up, are you the safe from another bump for a couple of years?
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No, it completely depends on your performance, you’re not safe from anything. You could even double bump the following year, though that’s pretty uncommon.
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
mpnv1990 said:
Have you ever done analysis to see what your correct bump up/down prediction rate is as compared with TR?
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In most years I'm 90+% accurate on year-end levels. I have not done a comprehensive check of TR, but in past year on various spot checks for some teams I've observed they were quite a bit lower than that, but can't say if that is the case across the board or not.
 
E.T.

E.T.

Rookie
TennisOTM said:
I have a vague memory from last year that TR's initial year-end projections got changed when they later posted an update. Will have to keep an eye on it over the next several days.

In general, I think the year-end calculation is much harder to do, involving large scale iterative calculations.
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They are already changing…. I had a teammate showing predicted year end of 4.25 a few hours ago. Now they show 4.11. They did their training so they already confirmed they are a 4.0C this year. But the projections on TR are already dropping down. It seems like they must still be running adjustments.
 
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