The dreaded EOY Rating thread

M

mpnv1990

Semi-Pro
UtahPack said:
I don't think it's as large of a difference as you think it is between bump / strike thresholds . I've seen guys go 4-1 as a self rate and somehow get DQ'd. There was no way this guy generated 3 4.25+ strikes as a 4.0S because the guys he played were very low rated and he was winning matches 2-2 / 5-4 / 3-3 / 1-2. Two of those wins coming against a fresh 3.5 bump up to 4.0. Then he lost in straight sets 4-4 at sectionals finals and somehow got Dynamically DQ'd, but the guy that beat him was able to go to nationals and was also self rated. I think the system is flawed, but then again every single system would be flawed. My main sticking point is some smaller state/cities/towns can't possibly require more matches to be played. We'd have to play the same team 5 times or even more. Most of the time once local league title is out of reach the other team begins forfeiting matches.
Click to expand...
At 4.0S and above, the strike threshold is lower.
 
U

UtahPack

New User
mpnv1990 said:
At 4.0S and above, the strike threshold is lower.
Click to expand...
Interesting. I feel like as a USTA veteran I would know about this stuff a lot, but apparently I'm oblivious. What sources do you guys use to obtain this information and what do you think the 4.0S strike threshold is? 4.10+? I can possibly see the guy in questions potentially generating 3 4.10 ratings in those 5 matches he played, but even that's a stretch.
 
J

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
UtahPack said:
Interesting. I feel like as a USTA veteran I would know about this stuff a lot, but apparently I'm oblivious. What sources do you guys use to obtain this information and what do you think the 4.0S strike threshold is? 4.10+? I can possibly see the guy in questions potentially generating 3 4.10 ratings in those 5 matches he played, but even that's a stretch.
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It's around 4.20. @schmke estimated it several years ago based on data on what matches were actually strikes compared to his ratings for those matches. His ratings are obviously an estimate, but he is much more accurate than TR or TLS, so with enough data, he got a good idea of where the actual threshold is.
 
M

mpnv1990

Semi-Pro
J_R_B said:
It's around 4.20. @schmke estimated it several years ago based on data on what matches were actually strikes compared to his ratings for those matches. His ratings are obviously an estimate, but he is much more accurate than TR or TLS, so with enough data, he got a good idea of where the actual threshold is.
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There was a section that published the DQ threshold at 3.5S was 3.80.
 
L

Lord Of The Strings

Rookie
J_R_B said:
It's around 4.20. @schmke estimated it several years ago based on data on what matches were actually strikes compared to his ratings for those matches. His ratings are obviously an estimate, but he is much more accurate than TR or TLS, so with enough data, he got a good idea of where the actual threshold is.
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Does anybody actually check TLS for anything?
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
UtahPack said:
I don't think it's as large of a difference as you think it is between bump / strike thresholds . I've seen guys go 4-1 as a self rate and somehow get DQ'd. There was no way this guy generated 3 4.25+ strikes as a 4.0S because the guys he played were very low rated and he was winning matches 2-2 / 5-4 / 3-3 / 1-2. Two of those wins coming against a fresh 3.5 bump up to 4.0. Then he lost in straight sets 4-4 at sectionals finals and somehow got Dynamically DQ'd, but the guy that beat him was able to go to nationals and was also self rated. I think the system is flawed, but then again every single system would be flawed. My main sticking point is some smaller state/cities/towns can't possibly require more matches to be played. We'd have to play the same team 5 times or even more. Most of the time once local league title is out of reach the other team begins forfeiting matches.
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You are entitled to think whatever you want, but I have good reason to believe the thresholds are well above the bump thresholds. This is both from documents some sections had published and experience like @J_R_B noted. The USTA gives new players ample room to improve before they get strikes. I and others just believe it is way too much room.
 
C

Creighton

Professional
UtahPack said:
It's wild that the USTA algorithm makes people have to egregiously throw year after year just to get bumped down haha.
Click to expand...

You're definitely wrong about the threshold, but I do think you're right in that it won't impact as many people as others in this thread thing. The captains will just learn the new wiggle room and work within that wiggle room.
 
silverwyvern4

silverwyvern4

Semi-Pro
innoVAShaun said:
I guess I missed the email on Friday. I'm Safe Play certified because I coach my kids' USTA JTT Team.

GdzrSIIXQAg4IRU
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I'm sorry for the bad news, I hope you can appeal down tomorrow!
 
silverwyvern4

silverwyvern4

Semi-Pro
schmke said:
You are entitled to think whatever you want, but I have good reason to believe the thresholds are well above the bump thresholds. This is both from documents some sections had published and experience like @J_R_B noted. The USTA gives new players ample room to improve before they get strikes. I and others just believe it is way too much room.
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Do you know if strikes are reset on 12/3? If I had a new self rated player who probably got two strikes in her first two matches in October, and I benched her until 12/3, if she reset back to zero strikes now?
 
U

UtahPack

New User
silverwyvern4 said:
Do you know if strikes are reset on 12/3? If I had a new self rated player who probably got two strikes in her first two matches in October, and I benched her until 12/3, if she reset back to zero strikes now?
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Correct me if i'm wrong, but this person would generate a computer rated rating and no longer be eligible for dynamic DQ (strikes)
 
J

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
silverwyvern4 said:
Do you know if strikes are reset on 12/3? If I had a new self rated player who probably got two strikes in her first two matches in October, and I benched her until 12/3, if she reset back to zero strikes now?
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This is a question (a little more generalized) that I've had for a while, that I don't think we have a definitive answer to. If an S-rate player doesn't play enough matches to get a C-rating, do those matches that they played as an S-rate roll over into the next year or is the slate wiped clean back to "no rating" to start the next season?

For your specific question, either she's going to get a C-rating and a bump with 2 matches or, if the matches roll over, she's going to strike out in her next match anyway. If she doesn't get a C-rating and the matches don't roll over, then she got two free strikes that are wiped from the record.
 
E.T.

E.T.

Rookie
silverwyvern4 said:
Do you know if strikes are reset on 12/3? If I had a new self rated player who probably got two strikes in her first two matches in October, and I benched her until 12/3, if she reset back to zero strikes now?
Click to expand...
No, I don’t think strikes reset. If she only played 2 matches she would still be a self rate at year end could get DQ’d with her third match. You don’t get a C rating until you’ve played 3 matches total.
 
E.T.

E.T.

Rookie
silverwyvern4 said:
Do you know if strikes are reset on 12/3? If I had a new self rated player who probably got two strikes in her first two matches in October, and I benched her until 12/3, if she reset back to zero strikes now?
Click to expand...
You need to tell your sandbagger to throw games and keep the line closer if you want to keep her at a lower level lol.
 
M

mpnv1990

Semi-Pro
Roforot said:
I don't stay up to watch the new year's ball in Time Square anymore, but I may stay up to see who gets bumped or not after midnight!
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Hopefully it indeed comes out right at midnight ET.

I don’t know why the USTA won’t announce the exact time.
 
time_fly

time_fly

Hall of Fame
They started the update too early, meaning lots of people are still up on the East Coast and checking the ratings along with the rest of the country. The website appears to be croaking under the traffic. That's probably why they normally do it after midnight EST.
 
FuzzyYellowBalls

FuzzyYellowBalls

Legend
For all the rating gurus, for those of you who didn't read about the self rate 2.5 ex college player winning a 2.5 tourney, what does it mean that his profile is now this, did he "S" re-rate himself or get "S" bumped?

The plot thickens hehe....copy and pasted from his USTA​

Player Overview​



YEAR END NTRP RATINGS ARE HERE​

NTRP Rating
NTRP Rating Additional information


3.0 S
Updated Date 12/02/24
 
time_fly

time_fly

Hall of Fame
I'm impressed you got that. I can't sign into the USTA main page or app, and Tennislink is non-functional too. The web interface just hangs and the app just pops up "can't connect to server."
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
time_fly said:
They started the update too early, meaning lots of people are still up on the East Coast and checking the ratings along with the rest of the country. The website appears to be croaking under the traffic. That's probably why they normally do it after midnight EST.
Click to expand...
Yep, I'm surprised they did it early. Everything is just spinning now ...
 
Purestriker

Purestriker

Legend
FuzzyYellowBalls said:
For all the rating gurus, for those of you who didn't read about the self rate 2.5 ex college player winning a 2.5 tourney, what does it mean that his profile is now this, did he "S" re-rate himself or get "S" bumped?

The plot thickens hehe....copy and pasted from his USTA​

Player Overview​



YEAR END NTRP RATINGS ARE HERE​

NTRP Rating
NTRP Rating Additional information


3.0 S
Updated Date 12/02/24
Click to expand...
Yep. Dude is a genius.
 
time_fly

time_fly

Hall of Fame
schmke said:
Yep, I'm surprised they did it early. Everything is just spinning now ...
Click to expand...
Some of the weird behaviors I'm seeing with the main USTA site make me think they're doing work on the servers and software as well as just updating the database. It feels like they didn't stage their changes then swap to the updated system but instead are rolling out a series of changes on the production systems directly, leaving them very unstable until the process finishes.
 
M

Moon Shooter

Hall of Fame
travlerajm said:
For the folks who received the early news, how does WTN compared to TR for predictive accuracy?

My TR and WTN used to be in good agreement until recently, but now they are 0.2 ntrp apart, spanning both sides of the bump threshold. Only one can be right.
Click to expand...

How are you converting wtn to ntrp?
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
time_fly said:
Some of the weird behaviors I'm seeing with the main USTA site make me think they're doing work on the servers and software as well as just updating the database. It feels like they didn't stage their changes then swap to the updated system but instead are rolling out a series of changes on the production systems directly, leaving them very unstable until the process finishes.
Click to expand...
They've always done it this way.
 
P

paphil

New User
Their servers still must be getting hammered, but I was able to find my new rating (woohoo, bump up.) TR's prediction (Medium confidence) was correct.
 
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