The dreaded EOY Rating thread

Finally scraped the data for my area. Nobody on my team went up. We have some great players and the league seems so much stronger than it did when I joined [redacted] years ago. But aside from one year with major movement in 2017, 4.0 has been a brick wall for anyone playing at the 3.5 level around here. A total of 14 guys in Eastern and Southern CT went from 3.5 to 4.0 (out of roughly 520 3.5 men), so I guess I shouldn't feel bad.
 
A few years ago I appealed down from 4.5 to 4.0 so I could play with my old team from back in the day and get them to Princeton. Three years ago my record was 11-0, without dropping a set. And I didn't get bumped up. Two years ago my record was 8-1. And didn't get bumped up. Last year my record was 8-0. And yep... didn't get bumped up.

So last week I checked with Tennisrecord to see what they had my estimated year end rating as. It said my estimated year end rating was 4.27

And guess what? I didn't get bumped up.

What is going on? Is the USTA simply not moving anyone around anymore in my area? Or is Tennisrecord that inaccurate?

Btw, three years ago when I went 11-0. I handed out a total of 9 bagels. Yes.... 9!
 
@schmke You had a guy on my team at 3.70 and he didn’t get bumped up. I was super happy about that.
Yeah, my ratings aren't perfect. Although he'd come down since the 3.70 so the miss wasn't by that much. But I was correct on the other 12 on the team, including three other bump ups, so 12 for 13 isn't bad.

But I'd ask, does he play like a 3.5? Perhaps the USTA missed and my rating is actually a better representation of his ability! :)
 
Yeah, my ratings aren't perfect. Although he'd come down since the 3.70 so the miss wasn't by that much. But I was correct on the other 12 on the team, including three other bump ups, so 12 for 13 isn't bad.

But I'd ask, does he play like a 3.5? Perhaps the USTA missed and my rating is actually a better representation of his ability! :)
I think he’s a high end 3.5.
 
A few years ago I appealed down from 4.5 to 4.0 so I could play with my old team from back in the day and get them to Princeton. Three years ago my record was 11-0, without dropping a set. And I didn't get bumped up. Two years ago my record was 8-1. And didn't get bumped up. Last year my record was 8-0. And yep... didn't get bumped up.

So last week I checked with Tennisrecord to see what they had my estimated year end rating as. It said my estimated year end rating was 4.27

And guess what? I didn't get bumped up.

What is going on? Is the USTA simply not moving anyone around anymore in my area? Or is Tennisrecord that inaccurate?

Btw, three years ago when I went 11-0. I handed out a total of 9 bagels. Yes.... 9!
Princeton University?
 
A few years ago I appealed down from 4.5 to 4.0 so I could play with my old team from back in the day and get them to Princeton. Three years ago my record was 11-0, without dropping a set. And I didn't get bumped up. Two years ago my record was 8-1. And didn't get bumped up. Last year my record was 8-0. And yep... didn't get bumped up.

So last week I checked with Tennisrecord to see what they had my estimated year end rating as. It said my estimated year end rating was 4.27

And guess what? I didn't get bumped up.

What is going on? Is the USTA simply not moving anyone around anymore in my area? Or is Tennisrecord that inaccurate?

Btw, three years ago when I went 11-0. I handed out a total of 9 bagels. Yes.... 9!
Two things. One, yes the TR estimated year end rating is way off this year and is overrating everyone by .2-.3. The dynamic ratings are more accurate. Two, getting bumped is more about who you play than how many people you beat. I’d bet those 11 people you beat were low 4.0s or even 3.5s playing up. My singles 2 guy is in that same purgatory right now. He went 12-0 this year, only lost a couple sets, and really should be a 4.0, but most of his opponents were low-to-mid 3.5s.
 
I'm pretty sure something else is driving the ratings besides just individual performance. We all know people who should have been bumped up by any eyeball test. I don't know if it's trying to get different Nationals results, keeping certain league sizes, balancing the number of beginners coming in against the number of people moving up, age may be more of a factor since some of the 4.0 to 4.5 bump ups I saw were young guys who otherwise weren't that exceptional ... but there is some other significant driver of ratings changes going on besides raw dNTRP.
 
I'm pretty sure something else is driving the ratings besides just individual performance. We all know people who should have been bumped up by any eyeball test. I don't know if it's trying to get different Nationals results, keeping certain league sizes, balancing the number of beginners coming in against the number of people moving up, age may be more of a factor since some of the 4.0 to 4.5 bump ups I saw were young guys who otherwise weren't that exceptional ... but there is some other significant driver of ratings changes going on besides raw dNTRP.
You are correct. There is a lot of collusion/corruption imo.
 
You are correct. There is a lot of collusion/corruption imo.
If there was wide-spread collusion/corroption, my ratings wouldn't be as accurate as they tend to be. Sure, they aren't perfect, but based on the feedback I get and checks I do, I'm doing pretty well, certainly better than the alternatives.

But yes, some of the misses I have do seem odd and the eye-ball test people report seems to confirm my rating is likely more appropriate/accurate. I doubt there is corruption going on in these cases but rather they are just edge cases or exceptions the year-end calculations don't handle well.
 
the mega mushroom has worn off nod to super marios bros)... and i'm back down to normal 4.5-size :P
going 1-1 in 5.0 was not enough to keep me there... :(
 
TR was the same in my section as it was last year. If you were .10 into the next level, i.e. a 3.5 rated at 3.6+ on TR, you got a bump. Below that, almost no one bumped. And that's according to the dynamic rating, not the year end predictions they made. Those were all over the place.
 
TR was the same in my section as it was last year. If you were .10 into the next level, i.e. a 3.5 rated at 3.6+ on TR, you got a bump. Below that, almost no one bumped. And that's according to the dynamic rating, not the year end predictions they made. Those were all over the place.
I know a 3.61 that didn’t get bumped. Seems like it’s section heavy.

TR was off in socal. Good number of 4.0 that surprisingly didn’t get bumped. Plus some head scratchers that did.
 
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TR was pretty accurate. 3 ppl were supposed to be bumped up per TR and were not. TR had their yearend around 3.55-3.59 so it was close. 2 ppl were supposed to get a double bump to 4.5 (TR had them like 4.1) but only a single bump. One person was supposed to be bumped down to 3.5 but stayed 4.0.
I suppose for the people on the border, it was less accurate. I think 60-70%. I don't think there was anyone below 3.5 on TR who was bumped up so it seems like they overestimate a bit.
 
A few years ago I appealed down from 4.5 to 4.0 so I could play with my old team from back in the day and get them to Princeton. Three years ago my record was 11-0, without dropping a set. And I didn't get bumped up. Two years ago my record was 8-1. And didn't get bumped up. Last year my record was 8-0. And yep... didn't get bumped up.

So last week I checked with Tennisrecord to see what they had my estimated year end rating as. It said my estimated year end rating was 4.27

And guess what? I didn't get bumped up.

What is going on? Is the USTA simply not moving anyone around anymore in my area? Or is Tennisrecord that inaccurate?

Btw, three years ago when I went 11-0. I handed out a total of 9 bagels. Yes.... 9!
Why don't you just go play 4.5? Are you enjoying tennis at all going 27-1 with nine bagels?
 
Why don't you just go play 4.5? Are you enjoying tennis at all going 27-1 with nine bagels?
To be honest. Not really. I only enjoy going to Sectionals with the team. Which is kind of why I wanted my old rating back. But it seems like there's nothing I can do to get it back. I mean seriously... what else do I need to do?
 
There is a guy here that won a lot (80% + winning rate) at 4.0 when he came in as a self rate. He spent one year at 4.5. Did ok. He got bumped down. My buddies on the 4.0 teams are livid.
 
There is a guy here that won a lot (80% + winning rate) at 4.0 when he came in as a self rate. He spent one year at 4.5. Did ok. He got bumped down. My buddies on the 4.0 teams are livid.
I had an 85% win rate in 4.0 league matches (17-3) and didn't get bumped. It simply doesn't matter. In fact, a guy I beat 6-3 6-1 in a tournament was somehow bumped to 4.5 after going 4-4 in league matches LOL. USTA is silly.
 
in my area (raleigh/durham nc) TR projected WAY more people to get bumped to 5.0 than actually took place. i was shocked that more people didn't get bumped up. the usta was very lenient this year, at least at this level/area.
 
I don't think there was anyone below 3.5 on TR who was bumped up so it seems like they overestimate a bit.
I do know one 2.5 woman who was bumped up to 3.0 with a TR 2.35 rating but I didn’t see anything like that at higher levels
You are correct. There is a lot of collusion/corruption imo.
I don't think it’s nefarious. But NTRP is supposed to help organize healthy competitive leagues, not to perfectly capture people’s tennis ability. So there is certainly room for other criteria besides match results to factor into cutoffs for moving players.
 
why are there still some players where it still says last updated 12/31/2023? Even players who stayed same rating, most will have december 2024.
 
They didn't play enough matches to get an updated rating for 12/31/24. Ratings last for 3 years until they expire.
He had 12+ mixed matches, 3 singles matches, and 4 mens doubs in 2024. The singles and mens doubles were all in tournaments? so he should at least get a T or an M rating update?
 
He had 12+ mixed matches, 3 singles matches, and 4 mens doubs in 2024. The singles and mens doubles were all in tournaments? so he should at least get a T or an M rating update?
Existing C ratings seem to carry over in cases like this until they expire and the player has to self-rate again.
 
in my area (raleigh/durham nc) TR projected WAY more people to get bumped to 5.0 than actually took place. i was shocked that more people didn't get bumped up. the usta was very lenient this year, at least at this level/area.
Anyone else feel like USTA is dying to try to keep members? USTA has to be bleeding people to pickleball. This is the only way to explain the lack of bumps all around.
 
Anyone else feel like USTA is dying to try to keep members? USTA has to be bleeding people to pickleball. This is the only way to explain the lack of bumps all around.
So USTA thinks players will quit playing league tennis if they get bumped up? I know that occasionally does happen, but I think it’s the exception. It should be more important to have competitive leagues with players at roughly the same level. Our local league also had very little movement this year- ratings were very sticky.
 
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