The dreaded EOY Rating thread
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schmke
Legend
I believe bump up/down rates were pretty close to normal. I'll probably do some analysis on my blog soon, but a quick check shows up of around 9.1% and down of 5.3% which is pretty in line with most years.
edit: corrected numbers which were slightly off
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schmke
Legend
You are right, for "competitive" matches they probably are too broad, and throw in players playing up and it compounds the problem.
But the USTA says the intent of NTRP is to have players be "compatible" with each other within a level, and that is a softer requirement than competitive.
Also, if the bands were narrower, it would make it far more difficult for many areas to field teams as you'd have fewer players at a given level.
Possibly in some of the smaller areas. For instance where I live there is no local league at 4.5. It's straight to state. People are unmotivated to play in it because high rated 4.5s lick their chops at the thought of throwing games against a freshly bumped up 4.0 and then the 4.0 is stuck there for a while once that happens. Self rate guidelines dictate that a JUCO player can self rate 4.5 for men's tennis. There are a ton of JUCO programs around me. I'm in my 30's in no shape, way, or form can I compete with a 9-11 UTR self rated as a 4.5 that's 18 years old from Australia lol. Due to it being JUCO programs it's a revolving door for great 18 year old 4.5 self rates year in and year out. I could possibly hang at 40+ 4.5, but definitely not 18+. I'm self aware enough to realize that--so in my case yes it would deter me from continuing USTA tennis and I know a lot of people that share that same sentiment.
SudsInABucket
New User
All the numbers I’ve seen say that tennis participation is increasing, so I doubt it.
E.T.
Rookie
In my section it looked about the same as last year.
schmke
Legend
The USTA and TIA put out press releases saying tennis participation is increasing, but this is based on indirect sales metrics so YMMV on how well they actually translate.
But even assuming those are correct, USTA League participation has been decreasing for over 10 years now and I suspect it will for this year too once the analysis is done. COVID threw a wrench into the trend with a dramatic drop then increase, but post COVID the trend has continued of about a 2-3% drop in USTA League participation a year.
I've been reading this, but i'm not sure how this shows that the USTA has been growing. I guess I didn't take into account that a 6 year old would be considered a "USTA participant"
No. C-ratings should supercede M or T. I had a situation like this several years ago when one of my players was injured for the season and only played a couple tournaments and got a T rating at the end of the year. I wrote to the LLC about it and she said he should still have the C-rating and changed it back. His rating didn't change (i.e. 4.0 T vs 4.0 C). I'm not sure if it matters if the M or T would be higher (i.e. would a 4.5 M supercede 4.0 C?).
JUCO is tough. The local JUCO here occasionally gets the 5.0 level foreign ringers, but they also often have trouble filling out their lineup and in many years, pretty much anyone who owns a racket can get in the lineup. Their #1 is most often not better than 4.0/4.5. The JUCO coach is also the general manager of the largest local facility and close with the USTA league coordinators. If anyone from the JUCO self-rates for USTA, the USTA contacts him personally about any appeal and he tells them what level they should play (from 3.5 to 5.0). He is always fair in his assessment, which is how the system should work when people voluntarily stay inside the guard rails.
Is there ANY way a JUCO player can be anything other than a 4.5+? I thought the self rate questionnaire specifically asks if you've committed to or played at a JUCO program and if you answer yes, then you're at LOWEST a 4.5. Here where I live getting JUCO 4.5 ringers is an easy task because 4.5 is straight to state--so you just have to sell these guys on blocking off one weekend and within a 100 mile radius there's at least 3 JUCO programs. Go out 200 mile radius and there are 7 or so.
I think the USTA National should have 18+ adult combo leagues. Right now, it’s only 55+ to my knowledge. That would help to field teams in less populated areas.
I think the rest of the country is beholden to smaller areas.
What exactly does compatible mean?
mostly true.. but i've played against some juco/unranked-d3 that were no better than 4.0 (on the flip side, i've played against some juco/d3 players that easily could have played ranked-d1)
Icsa
Professional
Someone with 100% match win rate, losing a single set (during a timed match) and 65% game win didn't get bumped up. While someone with a much lower win percentage but who played up (at the next level) in a tournament in Oct did. Maybe USTA is trying to keep you happy (winning) where you are.
I meant this from the perspective of the self rate guidelines. I do understand that at MOST JUCO programs lines 5-6 singles can easily be a true 3.5 rated player, but as far as foreigners go they're mostly 4.5+ all day.
You can appeal the self-rating. 4.5 is the minimum you can self-rate yourself, but if you appeal, the self-rating appeals committee can do anything they want with it.
I would LOVE to see how many times the committee granted those appeals. My guess would be 5% or less. Also, would love to see how many JUCO players would enjoy filling out that questionnaire. I helped one of my friends do one. He played NAIA and was under NO circumstances a legit 4.5. Anyways, it felt tedious and it got denied.
Anomalies happen with the ratings. We once had a recent grad int he NJ league from an NAIA program (roughly equivalent to D3) who self-rated at 5.0 according to guidelines and appealed to 4.5 to play tri-level. The self-rating appeal was fine, he was not a #1 or #2 on his college team and was actually a good 4.5 level player. He played a full season on the 4.5 line and was 8-0 and got bumped down to 4.0 C. The next season, he played on a 4.5 men's team where he won 80% of the regular season matches and 50% of his 4.5 district/sectional matches. He also joined the best 4.0 team once they clinched the playoffs and got in the last two matches to be eligible for playoffs and then double bageled every match in 4.0 districts. LOL. That team had two absolute hammers of ringers - him and a 2-star kid who played for a top high school but didn't play in college so was eligible for 4.0. They were both unavailable for sectionals and the team finished dead last at sectionals.
Purestriker
Legend
I am starting to be a believer that one should not be playing up, especially in doubles. Ruins the system.
but any capt with some experience will tell their juco recruits to ignore (lie!) the self rate questionnaire... mainly to avoid the appeal process
Well, that's what the advantage of the local situation is. The kids from the JUCO fill out the appeal form and the committee goes straight to his coach for rating advice. Since the coach is a stand-up guy, he always gives them a fair assessment and the players get to the right level. It probably is not that smooth in other areas.
With the 2022 changes to the penalty point system, captains are risking automatic suspension if they get caught doing that now.
it's WAYYY too easy to catch people lying. Most JUCO programs post signings / pictures / social media posts often. Way too easy to catch people lying.
So it no longer requires several people lying on their self rates for a captain to get suspended?
No. The USTA published an explicit penalty point system with the 2022 league rules. Intentionally falsifying self-rating can be enough for a mandatory suspension for both the player and the captain.
interesting... a good rule, but i'd guess not enforced?... like jay walking...
Lord Of The Strings
Rookie
I've said this before, but the number of people who play up despite having no business playing up is appalling. I've seen dudes who have appealed back up to 4.0 from getting bumped down to 3.5 and then they indicate that they want a spot on a 4.5 team if needed to fill out a roster. There's no fix for lack of self-awareness, I know. But it can cause a lot of frustration.
BINGO. Where i live we have a guy that is a 4.0 he appealed up to 4.0 and regularly shows up to 4.5 straight to state tournaments. I believe he absolutely jacks up the rating system.
it's not a question of self-awareness... they are just wanting to get better by playing better people (without paying for lessons...who cares if it ruins the experience for the higher level players).
tbf i used to be like this when i was a 3.5...
and at least of few of my mixed dubs partners have stated, "i don't care about mixed, i just use it to get better for women's..."
Lord Of The Strings
Rookie
I get what you're saying, and I only disagree to the extent that I think that's a different kind of self-awareness.
I get that their mentality is trying to get better, but they also lack the self-awareness of realizing that they don't actually improve by just getting their butt kicked 1 & 1 all season. a 3.5 player who appeals up to 4.0 has no business on a 4.5 court. they lack self-awareness if 1) they think they can compete; or 2) if they think their game will actually improve playing against an opponent who wipes the floor with them.
If a lower-rated player wants to drill higher quality rally balls, improve volleys, return better serves, etc., then they can sign up for a higher level clinic. Some of the drills will be cooperative, or at least be designed to hit more than 2 balls in a single rally. But they won't get the reps needed to actually improve by playing a substantially higher level league match b/c the dominant player will end the points whenever they feel like it, which should be quick.
You should have to be in the upper third of your rating level to play up.
I brought this up in another thread where my flippant phrasing might have led to the trolling accusations that followed, but there's a point here I genuinely don't understand: I value very highly the chance to play against better players. Even when the level gap is so far that it might bore and irritate the opponent, I get something out of it. Why does that aspect of tennis, which cannot be unique to me, never show up in these discussions? Why is it almost always complaints about sandbaggers, fairness, and the like, with the implication that fairness implies at least a coin flip's chance of winning every match? The explanations I can come up with are not very flattering, but I am sure that I am missing something.
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
In my area 3.5 men are a dime a dozen. We have two local 18 and over 3.5 teams and a 40 and over team plus, 6.5 combo and lots of mixed doubles and tri-level that a 3.5m could play in. Yet we do not have *any* 4.0 adult leagues for men and we only have one 3.0 league for men. That 3.0 league is only 40 and over and there is only one other team. That other team is almost a 3 hour drive away. So I think if USTA could shave the top and bottom of 3.5 without much issue.
But honestly I think they should match the skill levels to the female leagues. (that is break off 3.0 at about 3.0 UTR, and then have USTA 3.5 go from 3.00 UTR to about 4.00UTR and then 4.0 USTA should go from 4.0 to about 5.0 UTR etc. There are lots of men that are not competitive with upper 3.0 men and so they don't play at all.
It's one of the amusing things about tennis life. A lot of people that play up will complain if they end up playing someone at their rating who may be a "sandbagger."
It's pretty common for women to play on 2 teams (lower and higher level) but they seem to progress. For guys though it's less clear if there's a benefit. One guy runs a 4.0 team and has 50% 4.0 players. They usually lose but the 3.5s feel it helps them? I don't see much improvement in their skills and unfortunately none of them were bumped up.
In contrast, playing at 3.5 I found a lot of tough matches and players. For the most part, captains were good about putting their best lineup on line 1. Quite a few of the people who I played here also ended up being bumped up so it was good to play other people on the boundary. I see benefits from playing up, but I think it's also important to be able to win clean at your own level.
I don't believe this next season will allow any people to play up in the flex league singles since after the Year end ratings everyone should be where they are.
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
From my perspective (which I know is not necessarily common) I am a 3.0 that would love to play in a 4.0 league if I could. But I also value my rating - to the extent a 3.0 can say he values his rating. So if someone who can play like an upper end 3.5 is throwing games to drive down their rating and then when I play them post season and get killed, my own rating tanks. Now I really don't think many people deliberately throw games so it is not an issue. But nonetheless if I lose a 3.0 match 6-1, 6-1 it stings more then if I was playing with some 4.0s and lost that way. So even if they are not tanking it just hurts a bit more and people will naturally say well that other guy should be playing in a higher level.
FuzzyYellowBalls
Legend
Your local USTA might do something based on your experience, but no nationwide decisions could ever be based on that kind of tennis environment.
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
Well it allows teams to fill out their roster. Plus the overlap between skill levels from 3.0-4.0 on the men's side is considerable. I tend to play better when people around me are playing better. The problem is someone with a UTR of 4.60 could be a USTA 3.0, 3.5 or even a low end 4.0. I have about a 4.0 UTR and if I could only play with other 3.0s I would not play USTA. Being a 4.0 UTR puts me at about a 3 on a scale from 1-6 for 3.5 players.
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
That would be a good way to do it. USTA would not need to give the whole dynamic rating (although they should) they could just put a mark next to people that are eligible to play up or something like that. As a captain that would be very nice because when I choose some 3.0 players (but not all) to play up on my 3.5 team, and some players (but not all) to play on my tri-level team it would be nice if I had something other then just my own judgment to substantiate these decisions.
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
It is possible that with a larger pool of players and matches, the levels tend to narrow out more then when you have fewer players and matches. But I still tend to think the UTR graph I posted above accurately shows the overlap in levels. It would be nice if UTR did a new graph and explained exactly how they got ranges they have.
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Section bump rates by gender
The USTA published 2023 year-end NTRP ratings about 24 hours ago, so that means it is time to start doing some analysis to see what we can ...
computerratings.blogspot.com
It is interesting that 9.5% get bumped up and on 5.6% get bumped down. You would think that people normally overestimate their ability so more would be bumped down when mathematics passes judgment on their abilities. I would think that is at least partly because people who are at the bottom of their level probably are not asked to play on teams as often as people at the top of their level. If you are not asked to play you will not get bumped down.
schmke
Legend
My usual analysis is only looking at bump rates for C rated players. I think I've done separate analysis for self-rates, but year over year I use C rated to not have the stats skewed by what self-rates happen to do that given year.Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Section bump rates by gender
The USTA published 2023 year-end NTRP ratings about 24 hours ago, so that means it is time to start doing some analysis to see what we can ...
It is interesting that 9.5% get bumped up and on 5.6% get bumped down. You would think that people normally overestimate their ability so more would be bumped down when mathematics passes judgment on their abilities. I would think that is at least partly because people who are at the bottom of their level probably are not asked to play on teams as often as people at the top of their level. If you are not asked to play you will not get bumped down.
Purestriker
Legend
But it limits the opponents rating growth and if yours if your is rated higher.
Purestriker
Legend
No. Top 90th percentile.
Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
I guess that is how I feel at 3.0. I play these guys with a 4.5+ UTRs and somehow they are still USTA 3.0. I figure if I am going to play someone with that high of a UTR I might as well be playing in a 3.5 league.
the top 10% of 3.0 male players are better then 70% of 3.5 male players. It is because there are pockets of players in many areas. That is why 4 out of 6 3.0 players I played at regionals in tri level had over a 5 UTR. Allowing players to play up helps eliminate these pockets.
+1000
and i was in this camp too... thinking if i play better people, i will magically get better... i think the issue was overly focusing on , "i just need to get use to their pace"... which is important, but i later learned i can't learn shots i need under that type of stress
time_fly
Hall of Fame
Being on the court with better players certainly gives you the opportunity to evaluate where you need to go in order to reach their level, but you need practice sessions or less stressful matches to actually work on the stuff.
Purestriker
Legend
If only 9% get bumped, then they are not 70% better than 3.5 male players. I think the issue is where you live the ratings are inflated because there are not enough players within each level. I would guess if you played at state, those opponents are lower rated than you and more difficult opponents than what you experience in a rural local league.
Play up anyway? This is the dumbest thing I've seen someone cry about on here. You're just humble bragging about your sandbagging.
Because everyone has the opportunity to play up a level if they want to play better players.
By sandbagging, you’re depriving a player the ability to play players at his or her own level or below.
The fundamental reason to have handicap events is to allow players to play others within their level. The sandbagging prevents the very reason the level exists.
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