THE final: [3] Nadal vs [4] Thiem - Barcelona Open 2017

Who will prevail?


  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .

The Green Mile

Bionic Poster
... forever ? :)
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stringertom

Bionic Poster
Its clay stat time:D:
Coming into today's SF play Nadal leads the tour with 58.7% of points won on clay. Do we believe this number? No. Nadal's two best seasons were in 2007 where he won 57.6% of his clay court points and 2012 at 58.3%.
NadalClay.png

Nadal 2017 clay likely points level:
Ace% is 4.2% and that is in the realm of possibility given Nadal's serve game the best its been perhaps ever.:eek:
First serve % is 67.2% and shows Rafa being more aggressive on first serve which is exactly what he's needed to do.:p
First serve points won is 73.0% and this is also quite believable as Rafa with aggressive serving in 2012 won 75.1%:eek:
Second serve points won is a highly suspect 62.1% in 2017 which is off the charts versus previous years. 2012 was nice so lets say 58.0% is his real level and this number has been inflated by poor opponents (ranking, plus Goffin and ARV way off at MC boosting Rafa's numbers).
Serve points won is 69.4% this year and that's crazy. Rafa won 68.7% in 2010, so he might end up that level in 2017.
Return points won is 50.4% in 2017 which is another fantasy number boosted by scenario described above. This is not 2008 Rafa.:rolleyes: Analyzing his matches he's failed to play any strong servers except for a suspect Kevin Anderson. He's around 58% 2nd serve return points won in 2017 and he may be that good again as generally he's played reasonably mobile players save Zverev and Anderson. The area clearly off kilter is first return where Nadal in 2017 he's over 45% with a career average of 39.5%. He might be as good as 46.0% return points won when 2017 is done.
IN SHORT, RAFA MIGHT BE ON TRACK FOR A MIGHTY 57.0% POINTS WON IN 2017.

Thiem visually is improved this year and so we have this for 2017:
TOTALS Match Tiebreak Ace% 1stIn 1st% 2nd% SPW RPW TPW DR
Clay 9-1 (90%) 1-1 (50%) 6.5% 62.3% 72.4% 55.7% 66.1% 44.2% 55.5% 1.30

Thiem's 2017 numbers on serve all look fairly legit and cover more matches than Rafa. They show some solid improvement over 2016 in 2nd serve points won at 55.7%. Thiem's return game bears further scrutiny with 2017 showing a whopping improvement of over 4% on return points won to 44.2%. Thiem is likely going to end up around 53.7% 2nd return points won (2015 was his best at 53.7%), so this is not the source of Thiem's boosted return points won; its his first return. Thiem in 2015 won 30.5% of his first return points on clay. In 2016 he was greatly improved to 32.9% on first return. Nadal career average leads at 39.5% and Djokoray have checked in around 36.0% in the last two years. 40% first return is devestatingly good. Thiem has outdone Nadal on first return this year in two of his matches with Sugita match at over 67% first return points won and Schwartzman around 57% (Nadal got 50% against the Schwartz). For reference against Murray Thiem won 46% of first return points. (Nadal in 2016 at Monte Carlo against Murray got 32% for reference in his win against Murray.) It seems likely that this great first return number for Thiem is a reality, but his stats are boosted like Rafa's from not playing any big servers. Thiem likely to end up around 36% on first return this year. At RG in 2016 he was at 42% return points won for the event and his highest first return match was just 36.2% against Cervantes.:confused: With 7 of his 11 matches in 2017 over the Cervantes number Thiem it appears is making a gigantic leap in first return on clay finally (much like what he did on hard courts last year.):eek: The Thiem return number may be very close to what he'll do in 2017 and that puts him at Djokoray class return game of the last few years on clay.:p
IN SHORT, THIEM MIGHT BE ON TRACK FOR AN IMPRESSIVE 55.0% POINTS WON IN 2017.

The stats show Rafa as the favorite for this match, but their is trouble in paradise. Here is where Thiem may be Rafa's undoing:
1. Thiem has a big first serve. Rafa's first return numbers should droop as Thiem specializes in punishing average returns; Rafa just getting a lot of first balls in play may not garner his normal success. Rafa's first return numbers are likely to be weak for him in this match.
2. Thiem has highish first serve points won and if he gets hot on serve on clay he's capable of getting over 70% of first serves in play which would give him a better overall serve game than prime Rafa.:confused:
3. Thiem has an excellent first return and damaged Murray greatly with it. Rafa's serve attack hinges on a high first serve percentage and points won on those serves. Thiem could easily put him in Juan Monaco serve territory.o_O

Nadal should hurt Thiem on 2nd serve and return points badly. It may not help Rafa greatly on his own serve, but on return if Thiem has a lowish first serve percentage (and it was very low with Murray at 49%:confused:) Rafa could break him frequently. Thiem at a minimum needs to find 62% first serving to keep afloat against Nadal (season average).

Very interesting match as this a bit of old school stats versus new school stats on clay. The new school is dominating around first serve and Thiem is a prime example. Old school is winning off a better ground game and solid numbers on 2nd return and serve (Rafa.)

This match probably hinges on Thiem's first serve percentage more than anything. Before Murray, Thiem was averaging close to 70% in his 4 previous matches. With that and Rafa's average play against Zeballos (game not unlike Thiem's, but much weaker), Thiem should win this match in 3 sets if he serves well.;) It could easily be 2 sets.:eek:
TLDR
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Hope this doesn't turn out to be a dud, Thiem-Murray was so fun to watch (even on a ****ty stream). Don't think Thiem will be tired, the guy's as fit as a horse.

Atleast Thiem has the power to pounce on those short balls which is a different prospect than most other players Nadal faced this CC season. Of course Nadal seems to have reached his clay wall mode last few weeks where he digs out so many balls and gets them back with interest (which might frustrate Thiem) but he's still a step slower and it gets harder neutralizing power players as you get older.
 
Even though Nadal is playing his best clay tennis for some time, he's clearly slower and more heavy on his feet than he used to be so he can be exposed by some serious power hitting. If Nadal can keep hitting to Thiem's backhand all the time he will win, though. This is actually a tough call. :confused:
 

Charleneriva

Hall of Fame
Its clay stat time:D:
Coming into today's SF play Nadal leads the tour with 58.7% of points won on clay. Do we believe this number? No. Nadal's two best seasons were in 2007 where he won 57.6% of his clay court points and 2012 at 58.3%.
NadalClay.png

Nadal 2017 clay likely points level:
Ace% is 4.2% and that is in the realm of possibility given Nadal's serve game the best its been perhaps ever.:eek:
First serve % is 67.2% and shows Rafa being more aggressive on first serve which is exactly what he's needed to do.:p
First serve points won is 73.0% and this is also quite believable as Rafa with aggressive serving in 2012 won 75.1%:eek:
Second serve points won is a highly suspect 62.1% in 2017 which is off the charts versus previous years. 2012 was nice so lets say 58.0% is his real level and this number has been inflated by poor opponents (ranking, plus Goffin and ARV way off at MC boosting Rafa's numbers).
Serve points won is 69.4% this year and that's crazy. Rafa won 68.7% in 2010, so he might end up that level in 2017.
Return points won is 50.4% in 2017 which is another fantasy number boosted by scenario described above. This is not 2008 Rafa.:rolleyes: Analyzing his matches he's failed to play any strong servers except for a suspect Kevin Anderson. He's around 58% 2nd serve return points won in 2017 and he may be that good again as generally he's played reasonably mobile players save Zverev and Anderson. The area clearly off kilter is first return where Nadal in 2017 he's over 45% with a career average of 39.5%. He might be as good as 46.0% return points won when 2017 is done.
IN SHORT, RAFA MIGHT BE ON TRACK FOR A MIGHTY 57.0% POINTS WON IN 2017.

Thiem visually is improved this year and so we have this for 2017:
TOTALS Match Tiebreak Ace% 1stIn 1st% 2nd% SPW RPW TPW DR
Clay 9-1 (90%) 1-1 (50%) 6.5% 62.3% 72.4% 55.7% 66.1% 44.2% 55.5% 1.30

Thiem's 2017 numbers on serve all look fairly legit and cover more matches than Rafa. They show some solid improvement over 2016 in 2nd serve points won at 55.7%. Thiem's return game bears further scrutiny with 2017 showing a whopping improvement of over 4% on return points won to 44.2%. Thiem is likely going to end up around 53.7% 2nd return points won (2015 was his best at 53.7%), so this is not the source of Thiem's boosted return points won; its his first return. Thiem in 2015 won 30.5% of his first return points on clay. In 2016 he was greatly improved to 32.9% on first return. Nadal career average leads at 39.5% and Djokoray have checked in around 36.0% in the last two years. 40% first return is devestatingly good. Thiem has outdone Nadal on first return this year in two of his matches with Sugita match at over 67% first return points won and Schwartzman around 57% (Nadal got 50% against the Schwartz). For reference against Murray Thiem won 46% of first return points. (Nadal in 2016 at Monte Carlo against Murray got 32% for reference in his win against Murray.) It seems likely that this great first return number for Thiem is a reality, but his stats are boosted like Rafa's from not playing any big servers. Thiem likely to end up around 36% on first return this year. At RG in 2016 he was at 42% return points won for the event and his highest first return match was just 36.2% against Cervantes.:confused: With 7 of his 11 matches in 2017 over the Cervantes number Thiem it appears is making a gigantic leap in first return on clay finally (much like what he did on hard courts last year.):eek: The Thiem return number may be very close to what he'll do in 2017 and that puts him at Djokoray class return game of the last few years on clay.:p
IN SHORT, THIEM MIGHT BE ON TRACK FOR AN IMPRESSIVE 55.0% POINTS WON IN 2017.

The stats show Rafa as the favorite for this match, but their is trouble in paradise. Here is where Thiem may be Rafa's undoing:
1. Thiem has a big first serve. Rafa's first return numbers should droop as Thiem specializes in punishing average returns; Rafa just getting a lot of first balls in play may not garner his normal success. Rafa's first return numbers are likely to be weak for him in this match.
2. Thiem has highish first serve points won and if he gets hot on serve on clay he's capable of getting over 70% of first serves in play which would give him a better overall serve game than prime Rafa.:confused:
3. Thiem has an excellent first return and damaged Murray greatly with it. Rafa's serve attack hinges on a high first serve percentage and points won on those serves. Thiem could easily put him in Juan Monaco serve territory.o_O

Nadal should hurt Thiem on 2nd serve and return points badly. It may not help Rafa greatly on his own serve, but on return if Thiem has a lowish first serve percentage (and it was very low with Murray at 49%:confused:) Rafa could break him frequently. Thiem at a minimum needs to find 62% first serving to keep afloat against Nadal (season average).

Very interesting match as this a bit of old school stats versus new school stats on clay. The new school is dominating around first serve and Thiem is a prime example. Old school is winning off a better ground game and solid numbers on 2nd return and serve (Rafa.)

This match probably hinges on Thiem's first serve percentage more than anything. Before Murray, Thiem was averaging close to 70% in his 4 previous matches. With that and Rafa's average play against Zeballos (game not unlike Thiem's, but much weaker), Thiem should win this match in 3 sets if he serves well.;) It could easily be 2 sets.:eek:

Wow! Where did you find that patience, Meles? It took me like forever to scroll on my phone screen but somehow I managed to read all that. Understandably, consequently now
43.gif
.

But that looks more you than the (‿ˠ‿) thing. :oops:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Wow! Where did you find that patience, Meles? It took me like forever to scroll on my phone screen but somehow I managed to read all that. Understandably, consequently now
43.gif
.

But that looks more you than the (‿ˠ‿) thing. :oops:
That was a quick visual of tennis abstract data. I have other projects I've done and may resurrect, but tennis abstract offers 90%. Here is my clay court handbook with complete 2015 and 2016 data, plus ATGs:
https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/2016-clay-court-handbook.556878/

Its really hard this year with Djokoray out of form. It was a given that this would continue on clay (rather than last years play.) Most players grow in their stats (Zverev has despite the boo birds) when they are young so that is predictable. Stats can be thrown by the type of players you play especially for shorter periods. I don't really bother with grass stats too much.

Tennis abstract is annoying as they only show the top 50 players in the game:
http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/leaders.cgi?f=A2017qqB1s00t1

They also don't real time their leaderboard and have nothing on players like Ruud, etc. outside the top 50 who you have to manually lookup. My handbook takes about 30 minutes to scrape from the ATP site, but covers more players and I can make my own list by just typing in names. Head to head and other factors are far more important for predicting matches, but stats don't like in the long run. Thiem around 55% on points is a huge move this year for him. If he keeps that up for the year he's very likely to be a dominant multiple champion at RG (very likely to improve for years to come too.)

Most of the fools on TTW and frankly most of the tennis world have soured on Thiem for not having great results on hard courts. Its a sad view point as a match like TODAY'S IS A CLASH OF THE AGES that we have a very small window on given that Nadal's really Fedal's resurgence in 2017 is a gift that won't last long. Looking at former great players stat histories etc. gives you the path and its great to see up and comers on this path.:D Thiem has finally arrived in 2017:p and so we have a match today potentially like seeing Muster vs. Nadal in level, but the ignorant tennis world doesn't see it coming. (Watched Fed's exhibition and those Tennis Channel clowns basically talked up Fedal totally oblivious to the Murray/Thiem match, etc. when mentioning clay and Barcelona) Thiem to adminster some serious toaster burns to their dumb xxxes today.:eek::D
 

netlets

Professional
Incredibly, in the two clay-court tournament he's played, I believe this is the first top 10 player he will face. Thiem is at a better level than any of his opponents. It should be interesting to see at what level Rafa is really at. And also if Thiem can hold his nerve. Rafa is not the Rafa of old - Thiem will have a great chance if he plays well.
 

Vrad

Professional
I just realized that Thiem will be the first seeded player Nadal has played this entire tournament.

Even for a 500 his draw has been ridiculously below par.
 

Charleneriva

Hall of Fame
That was a quick visual of tennis abstract data. I have other projects I've done and may resurrect, but tennis abstract offers 90%. Here is my clay court handbook with complete 2015 and 2016 data, plus ATGs:
https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/2016-clay-court-handbook.556878/

Its really hard this year with Djokoray out of form. It was a given that this would continue on clay (rather than last years play.) Most players grow in their stats (Zverev has despite the boo birds) when they are young so that is predictable. Stats can be thrown by the type of players you play especially for shorter periods. I don't really bother with grass stats too much.

Tennis abstract is annoying as they only show the top 50 players in the game:
http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/leaders.cgi?f=A2017qqB1s00t1

They also don't real time their leaderboard and have nothing on players like Ruud, etc. outside the top 50 who you have to manually lookup. My handbook takes about 30 minutes to scrape from the ATP site, but covers more players and I can make my own list by just typing in names. Head to head and other factors are far more important for predicting matches, but stats don't like in the long run. Thiem around 55% on points is a huge move this year for him. If he keeps that up for the year he's very likely to be a dominant multiple champion at RG (very likely to improve for years to come too.)

Most of the fools on TTW and frankly most of the tennis world have soured on Thiem for not having great results on hard courts. Its a sad view point as a match like TODAY'S IS A CLASH OF THE AGES that we have a very small window on given that Nadal's really Fedal's resurgence in 2017 is a gift that won't last long. Looking at former great players stat histories etc. gives you the path and its great to see up and comers on this path.:D Thiem has finally arrived in 2017:p and so we have a match today potentially like seeing Muster vs. Nadal in level, but the ignorant tennis world doesn't see it coming. (Watched Fed's exhibition and those Tennis Channel clowns basically talked up Fedal totally oblivious to the Murray/Thiem match, etc. when mentioning clay and Barcelona) Thiem to adminster some serious toaster burns to their dumb xxxes today.:eek::D

Can't really blame them, you know, when there're the goat and the world's richest involved. Plus it's for charity cause. :p

But really,
bow.gif
your passion and patience. I think you may be right. Unless some crazy prodigy talent will come along, Thiem might become the dominant RG champion after Rafa in the future. I just hope it's not too near though. :D
 
Can't really blame them, you know, when there're the goat and the world's richest involved. Plus it's for charity cause. :p

But really,
bow.gif
your passion and patience. I think you may be right. Unless some crazy prodigy talent will come along, Thiem might become the dominant RG champion after Rafa in the future. I just hope it's not too near though. :D
But didn't Goffin beat Thiem in Monte Carlo? Thiem is good, but not as dominant as when Nadal was 'young'. Different type of talent
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
Bernardes is the chair umpire. I thought Nadal wasn't gonna play any matches with Bernardes on the umpire's chair.
 
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