The final before the finale in QF

[AO13]

When was the last time we had a match in quarterfinals of men's singles tennis at Grand Slam level, where that match was arguably deemed as the final before the actual final? I am asking you to take into account all the players left in the draw from QFs and hypothetical matches that could be played in SF and F.

For example, for me, I can only remember two times that happened, both times at Roland Garros - in 2022 when Djokovic and Nadal faced each other and Nadal came victorious. Other QF pairs were Zverev v Alcaraz in first half of the draw, Ruud v Rune and Rublev v Cilic in the second half. Potential F could be for example Djokovic v Ruud, Nadal v Cilic, Alcaraz v Ruud, etc. Not a single combination of matches would be bigger match than Djokovic v Nadal in QFs. Bear in mind Alcaraz was 18 then.

Second time it was in 2015, again Djokovic v Nadal, though that was a poor form Rafael Nadal. Still, it was the God of clay who untill then lost only to Soderling at Roland Garros, and other pairs were Murray v Ferrer in first half alongside the aforementioned Djokovic v Nadal, and Nishikori v Tsonga, Wawrinka v Federer in second half of the draw. One could say Nadal v Federer in the final could be bigger match, or even Djokovic v Federer since Djokovic was at his peak then, but Nadal is blockbuster at Roland Garros and to me it was the final before the finale.

Same thing is happening in US Open this year. Since Djokovic and Alcaraz both lost in earlier rounds, when we look at the all quarterfinalists and potential pairs for semi finals and finals, Sinner v Medvedev really is the final before the finale. It is highly likely the winner of that match will win the tournament, Medvedev already did it at US Open stopping Djokovic from obtaining the CYGS, while Sinner plays the best season of his career. Both got fairly easy to the QFs. Other pairs are: Draper v De Minaur thus concluding the first half of the draw, Fritz v Zverev and Dimitrov v Tiafoe in second half. Yes, Zverev does play good tennis and he is a one of the favorites too, but I don't think Sinner v Zverev or Medvedev v Zverev would be bigger than Sinner v Medvedev. That's my opinion.

What are your thoughts and do you remember a QF match in the past that was considered to be the final before the final match?​

 

[Hitman]

Sampras vs Agassi USO 2001 quarter final.

At the time of the match, it was considered the final by many, despite Safin and Hewitt still lurking.

 

[ChrisRF]

Sampras vs Agassi USO 2001 quarter final.

At the time of the match, it was considered the final by many, despite Safin and Hewitt still lurking.

Same for Djokovic vs Nadal at RG 2015. And just as in your example, the winner of said QF nevertheless lost the real final.

 

[AO13]

Sampras vs Agassi USO 2001 quarter final.

At the time of the match, it was considered the final by many, despite Safin and Hewitt still lurking.

I had in mind that Sampras and Agassi probably faced each other in earlier rounds when Sampras was close to retiring and Agassi was in the last stages of his career, but didn't do the research and didn't watch (sadly) tennis then, was just a kid intersted in football and Real Madrid's Ronaldo, Raul, Zidane, Roberto Carlos, McManaman, Hierro, Beckham, Figo.

Thanks for the info!​

 

[Hitman]

I had in mind that Sampras and Agassi probably faced each other in earlier rounds when Sampras was close to retiring and Agassi was in the last stages of his career, but didn't do the research and didn't watch (sadly) tennis then, was just a kid intersted in football and Real Madrid's Ronaldo, Raul, Zidane, Roberto Carlos, McManaman, Hierro, Beckham, Figo.

Thanks for the info!​

It was a very big match. Hewiit hadn't won anything big at that point, and Safin was not looking like himself at time, his form was not the same as the 2000 season.

 

[Tennfan123]

There is no such thing.

 

[buscemi]

Most recent would probably be the French Open or the U.S. Open in 2022:

2022 French Open: QF between Nadal/Djokovic was seen as the real final. No one in the bottom half of the draw was seen as a threat (and Nadal smoked Ruud in the final). Of course, the Nadal/Zverev SF was a war before Zverev injured himself, but no one was thinking he could beat Nadal before that match.​

​

2022 U.S. Open: QF between Alcaraz and Sinner was arguably seen as the real final. No one in the top half of the draw was seen as a threat (and Alcaraz beat Ruud in a tidy 4 set final). Tiafoe did extend Alcaraz to five sets in the SF, but Alcaraz was a clear favorite going into that match. This one probably doesn't count, though, because neither Alcaraz nor Sinner had won a Major at this point, so I don't think their QF qualifies as a "real final."​

So, I'd go with the 2022 French Open.

 

[Open Stance]

Tennis seeding is dumb. Sinner vs. Medvedev should be a SF match. What other sport is set up where the #1 seed has to play #5 in a QF while the #4 seeds draws #8? What exactly is the benefit of having the #1 ranking? Not that I'll even be able to watch with this ongoing Disney/ESPN - Directv contract dispute.

 

[weakera]

 

[AO13]

Biggest quarterfinal match in the history of tennis.

 

[messiahrobins]

When was the last time we had a match in quarterfinals of men's singles tennis at Grand Slam level, where that match was arguably deemed as the final before the actual final? I am asking you to take into account all the players left in the draw from QFs and hypothetical matches that could be played in SF and F.

For example, for me, I can only remember two times that happened, both times at Roland Garros - in 2022 when Djokovic and Nadal faced each other and Nadal came victorious. Other QF pairs were Zverev v Alcaraz in first half of the draw, Ruud v Rune and Rublev v Cilic in the second half. Potential F could be for example Djokovic v Ruud, Nadal v Cilic, Alcaraz v Ruud, etc. Not a single combination of matches would be bigger match than Djokovic v Nadal in QFs. Bear in mind Alcaraz was 18 then.

Second time it was in 2015, again Djokovic v Nadal, though that was a poor form Rafael Nadal. Still, it was the God of clay who untill then lost only to Soderling at Roland Garros, and other pairs were Murray v Ferrer in first half alongside the aforementioned Djokovic v Nadal, and Nishikori v Tsonga, Wawrinka v Federer in second half of the draw. One could say Nadal v Federer in the final could be bigger match, or even Djokovic v Federer since Djokovic was at his peak then, but Nadal is blockbuster at Roland Garros and to me it was the final before the finale.

Same thing is happening in US Open this year. Since Djokovic and Alcaraz both lost in earlier rounds, when we look at the all quarterfinalists and potential pairs for semi finals and finals, Sinner v Medvedev really is the final before the finale. It is highly likely the winner of that match will win the tournament, Medvedev already did it at US Open stopping Djokovic from obtaining the CYGS, while Sinner plays the best season of his career. Both got fairly easy to the QFs. Other pairs are: Draper v De Minaur thus concluding the first half of the draw, Fritz v Zverev and Dimitrov v Tiafoe in second half. Yes, Zverev does play good tennis and he is a one of the favorites too, but I don't think Sinner v Zverev or Medvedev v Zverev would be bigger than Sinner v Medvedev. That's my opinion.

What are your thoughts and do you remember a QF match in the past that was considered to be the final before the final match?​

Sampras v Courier 1995 AO QF (at the time Courier owned Agassi)
Becker v Stich W 1993 QF (that was seen as defacto final between the two best grass courters at the time, problem was Sampras came of age in that event and utterly destroyed Becker making his game look obsolete overnight)
Nadal v Djokovic RG 2022 QF ( bit of a misnomer as Zverev would have beat Djokovic in the semi final i think, Djokovic was playing garbage that event and Nadal really should have beat him in straight sets)
Alcaraz v Sinner USO 2022 QF I knew that was the final really.

 

[Tano]

Same for Djokovic vs Nadal at RG 2015. And just as in your example, the winner of said QF nevertheless lost the real final.

Would that (very low) version of Nadal have won RG without Djokovic?

 

[Tano]

Tennis seeding is dumb. Sinner vs. Medvedev should be a SF match. What other sport is set up where the #1 seed has to play #5 in a QF while the #4 seeds draws #8? What exactly is the benefit of having the #1 ranking? Not that I'll even be able to watch with this ongoing Disney/ESPN - Directv contract dispute.

It is clear that they tried to favor Djokovic again in the draw like last year (it was an aberration) but this time they did not count on the fact that their favorite player was going to lose at the first opportunity.

 

[JMR]

Tennis seeding is dumb. Sinner vs. Medvedev should be a SF match. What other sport is set up where the #1 seed has to play #5 in a QF while the #4 seeds draws #8? What exactly is the benefit of having the #1 ranking?

I think the seeding system should always reward higher seeds for the rankings they have earned. No. 1 vs. no. 5 in the quarters unfairly penalizes both players. Each player has to play the strongest possible opponent from the other group. It should be no. 1 vs. no 8 and no. 4 vs. no. 5. I would prefer a system in which the appropriate seeding matchups are built in, and then all the rest of the draw is conducted randomly as usual. But when I've advocated for this system in the past, it's been criticized for tending to produce the same matchups over and over, which is not really accurate, because many players' rankings change throughout the year. Moreover, no one objects when the no. 1 and no. 2 rankings are very stable over time, thus leading those two players to always be seeded to meet in the final. So why would it be a problem for no. 1 and no. 8 to always be drawn to meet in the QF? Seedings and draws don't ensure that the players will actually meet as scheduled; they still have to win their matches.

 

[Open Stance]

Another ridiculous draw where a #1 seed (Djokovic) drew a #5 (Nadal) in the QF while the #4 is set up to meet #8.

 

[Open Stance]

But when I've advocated for this system in the past, it's been criticized for tending to produce the same matchups over and over, which is not really accurate, because many players' rankings change throughout the year.

Exactly! The rankings change virtually every week. Looking at the current live rankings, this week alone within the top 4 Zverev just leapfrogged Alcaraz and Djokoivic into 2nd while Novak dropped to 4th. Six out of the top 16 places have changed. There is no reason to do random draws. They are unfair and usually lead to controversy.

 

[ollinger]

Sampras vs Agassi USO 2001 quarter final.

At the time of the match, it was considered the final by many, despite Safin and Hewitt still lurking

Same for Djokovic vs Nadal at RG 2015. And just as in your example, the winner of said QF nevertheless lost the real final.

Thread mooted. What you think is the "real" final........isn't

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

True. Nadal was too good that day. A superb performance and Djokovic played well as well.

 

[AO13]

Would that (very low) version of Nadal have won RG without Djokovic?

Probably. It's the aura Nadal has at the French Open, especially then when he was virtually unbeatable, losing only to Soderling in 2009 prior defeat against Djokovic. The thing is, Novak was few times already close beating Nadal at FO, so he had confidence. Had Nadal beat Djokovic, I truly believe he would win the tournament that year too.​

 

[mike danny]

Probably. It's the aura Nadal has at the French Open, especially then when he was virtually unbeatable, losing only to Soderling in 2009 prior defeat against Djokovic. The thing is, Novak was few times already close beating Nadal at FO, so he had confidence. Had Nadal beat Djokovic, I truly believe he would win the tournament that year too.​

Before 2013 he was never close