The Four TOP contenders PATH to the TITLE at RG

[K-H]

If nadal wants to win RG, we can't be talking about ppl like fognini. Look at it this way, if Murray had nadals draw, who would he struggle with?
The only player nadal has to worry about is Thiem. And you should have to play at least one decent player in your route to the semis. I'm not calling Tsonga a difficult opponent. Regardless of him beating nadal last year.

 

[E36BMWM3]

If nadal wants to win RG, we can't be talking about ppl like fognini. Look at it this way, if Murray had nadals draw, who would he struggle with?
The only player nadal has to worry about is Thiem. And you should have to play at least one decent player in your route to the semis. I'm not calling Tsonga a difficult opponent. Regardless of him beating nadal last year.

My guess is Tsonga won't make it past Goffin who is having a pretty good year so far. My biggest worry before semis is Thiem... He has the energy and the shots to give Rafa trouble. I don't see him hanging, however, if the match goes to 5 sets. He needs to do it in 4. I expect that to be a good match.

 

[Mainad]

Who's this other Murray guy in the poll, then?

 

[abmk]

Who's this other Murray guy in the poll, then?

Jamie Murray ?

 

[abmk]

Ah this endless Nishikori hype! He is not at the same level as Murray and Stan, healthy or not. Stan is a French Open champion and has a clay Masters title. Murray has 2 clay Masters titles and made 3 semi-finals at RG. Nishikori has only 2 x 500 level titles on clay, has made only 1 quarter-final at RG and lost his only encounter with both Stan and Murray on clay. So why are you so sure he's going to take them both out at RG this year?

I agree ...

 

[Mainad]

Jamie Murray ?

Which is which?

 

[cc0509]

Nadal is not losing to anyone before Djokovic. I'd be surprised if he lost more than one set before that potential meeting tbh. The combo is relatively tough and that might be his undoing if/when he plays Novak, but nobody besides Djokovic is taking 3 sets off of him before the SF.

I agree with you. So many posters saying Nadal has a tough draw. He has a virtual bye until the SFs. Fognini or Thiem are not going to beat this Nadal in a FO best of five. Nadal's problem is Djokovic and whether or not he can bring out the old Nadal for the match vs Djokovic in the SF.

I don't think any of the top four seeds have tough draws on paper until at least the QF stage. Wawrinka has a good looking draw until possibly his QF vs Raonic, Murray has a good draw up until his QF with Kyrgios/Kei but Murray should beat both, Nadal has a bye to the SFs and Djokovic has a bye to the SFs.

 

[cc0509]

I think Djokovic and Wawrinka both have excellent draws.

Nadal has a tough draw and I couldnt be happier about that.

Murray's is pretty tough as well.

Tough? Which player will be a big threat for him until the SF? Thiem or Fognini? I think he'll beat both without much trouble.

 

[duaneeo]

Nadal is not losing to anyone before Djokovic.

I agree. He has a difficult draw on paper, but people tend to forget that only one player has beaten Nadal at RG in six years, and I don't see anyone in his draw changing that stat.

I very excited at his chance to get that French title, bag the career slam and win 4 in a row (NCYGS) something fed, Sampras or Rafa never did.

All the ATGs have done something that the others never did.

 

[nowhereman]

Have you decided to include Jamie Murray in the poll?

 

[mattosgrant]

Tough? Which player will be a big threat for him until the SF? Thiem or Fognini? I think he'll beat both without much trouble.

I know you think Theim is overhyped, and I agree he probably is (but then again how many others should people be trying to get excited about it giving the up and coming group, slim pickings, so I understand Thiem getting some interest) but at this stage of his career Thiem is absolutely a dangerous opponent for Nadal. Fognini probably is too, he hit Nadal clean off the court the last 3 sets of the U.S Open. I am not saying he will fall to either, but both are dangerous for him, and a couple others he could possibly face if he doesnt them, and even if he reaches the semis vs Djokovic I expect he will have worked harder to get there than Novak who clearly has an easier draw and would have been the clear favorite in that match up today regardles.

 

[mattosgrant]

I agree. He has a difficult draw on paper, but people tend to forget that only one player has beaten Nadal at RG in six years, and I don't see anyone in his draw changing that stat.

Perhaps you also forget the current Nadal is a shadow of the Nadal of the entire 2005-2014 period, even his weaker years in that period, and he has only played 1 RG since then thus far (which he fell in the quarters with ease, managing only 9 games, to someone who didnt win the tournament). That he is playing fairly well leading into RG doesnt change that. He is still shaky enough to lose in straight sets to Murray on clay (imagine that ever happening just a few years ago), look completely outmatched everytime he plays Djokovic on clay for awhile now, and need guys like Zverev and Theim to choke away leads against him in their recent clay encounters.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

But that's just the point...he DID get that injury! Fitness and stamina are as crucial to a player's game as his ability to serve well and hit great forehands. Does Nishikori have the necessary stamina and fitness to win 7 best of 5 set matches against a succession of top players? The jury's still out on that one.

You're right, that's the point... In best-of-three, when Nishikori finds his peak game, he can truly push Waw and Murray, although they should be able to edge him if they are close to their best themselves. But BO5 makes his chances plummet.

 

[kalpab]

 

[RF-18]

Lol the last option was supposed to be wawrinka. My bad

 

[cc0509]

I know you think Theim is overhyped, and I agree he probably is (but then again how many others should people be trying to get excited about it giving the up and coming group, slim pickings, so I understand Thiem getting some interest) but at this stage of his career Thiem is absolutely a dangerous opponent for Nadal. Fognini probably is too, he hit Nadal clean off the court the last 3 sets of the U.S Open. I am not saying he will fall to either, but both are dangerous for him, and a couple others he could possibly face if he doesnt them, and even if he reaches the semis vs Djokovic I expect he will have worked harder to get there than Novak who clearly has an easier draw and would have been the clear favorite in that match up today regardles.

Yeah, I can't agree with you on this one. I think Nadal will likely pass those rounds with flying colors. The only question for me with respect to Nadal is can he take Djokovic close in the SF or will it be another easy job for Djokovic? Obviously, the smart money is on Djokovic beating Nadal fairly easily but you never know if Nadal of old will show up and if Djokovic will be overwhelmed by the occasion. Slim chance but sh*t happens.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

I quite confident Novak will have more in the tank for the final than last year. He could cruise to semi without potentially dropping a set. Plus the Nadal match is not daunting like it used to be for Djoko, it's roles reverse, more daunting for Rafa. Djoko if all is well in his game could cruise to final just dropping say 1 set or something.

It not always that simple though and there is the added pressure to deal with and players getting hot or Rafa turning the clock back. However, Novaks draw looks great. These days Murray and wawrinka are probably his biggest threats and they in the other side, so hoping nole has all or most his strength to see off 1 of them or maybe nishi in final.

 

[E36BMWM3]

Perhaps you also forget the current Nadal is a shadow of the Nadal of the entire 2005-2014 period, even his weaker years in that period, and he has only played 1 RG since then thus far (which he fell in the quarters with ease, managing only 9 games, to someone who didnt win the tournament). That he is playing fairly well leading into RG doesnt change that. He is still shaky enough to lose in straight sets to Murray on clay (imagine that ever happening just a few years ago), look completely outmatched everytime he plays Djokovic on clay for awhile now, and need guys like Zverev and Theim to choke away leads against him in their recent clay encounters.

Nadal will make it to the semis with no real issue... Stop comparing his current state with last year's... He is way past 2015 and the only players that have a chance of stopping him are only Novak and Andy. Novak had a tough time with Nadal in Rome, and while he won in straight sets only 3 points separated them at the end. To say he was completely unmatched is baloney... What match did you watch? The bias is incredible. Nadal will make it to the semis, so will Djoko. Only and ONLY after that match can we judge the state of affairs with accuracy