The great ELO race 2022 and beyond after each Grand Slam

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
ELO doesn't win titles but helps to put players in perspective. I found this ranking by Tennis Abstract highly useful over the years to understand the players path better. Here there is a good discussion about it is about:


Regular snapshots help. After the Number 21 for Rafa the ELO15 are thus:


ELO 1-15


Rank​
Player​
Age​
Elo​
HardRaw​
ClayRaw​
GrassRaw​
hElo​
cElo​
gElo​
Peak Match​
Peak Age​
Peak Elo​
1​
34.5​
2185.2​
2068.0​
2016.3​
1942.4​
2126.6​
2100.8​
2063.8​
2016 Miami F​
28.8​
2470.0​
2​
25.9​
2173.2​
2097.2​
1714.1​
1723.4​
2135.2​
1943.6​
1948.3​
2022 Australian Open SF​
25.9​
2188.7​
3​
24.7​
2129.4​
2041.5​
1999.1​
1671.4​
2085.4​
2064.3​
1900.4​
2022 Atp Cup RR​
24.7​
2157.9​
4​
35.6​
2054.2​
1896.1​
1951.2​
1500.0​
1975.1​
2002.7​
1777.1​
2009 Madrid SF​
22.9​
2370.0​
5​
23.4​
2046.9​
1917.9​
2005.5​
1543.4​
1982.4​
2026.2​
1795.2​
2021 Roland Garros SF​
22.8​
2132.6​
6​
39.9​
2043.0​
1936.7​
1749.6​
1813.4​
1989.8​
1896.3​
1928.2​
2007 Dubai F​
25.6​
2382.0​
7​
25.8​
2022.8​
1835.9​
1910.5​
1853.0​
1929.3​
1966.7​
1937.9​
2021 Wimbledon SF​
25.2​
2044.4​
8​
18.7​
2017.6​
1883.8​
1834.4​
1441.4​
1950.7​
1926.0​
1729.5​
2022 Australian Open R64​
18.7​
2038.3​
9​
20.4​
2011.5​
1934.0​
1807.0​
1312.8​
1972.8​
1909.2​
1662.2​
2022 Australian Open R16​
20.4​
2026.2​
10​
23.0​
2010.2​
1846.0​
1951.2​
1465.9​
1928.1​
1980.7​
1738.0​
2021 Tour Finals RR​
22.9​
2032.0​
11​
27.7​
2002.1​
1934.8​
1936.2​
1618.3​
1968.4​
1969.1​
1810.2​
2016 Halle R16​
22.8​
2123.2​
12​
21.4​
1966.9​
1868.1​
1681.9​
1784.0​
1917.5​
1824.4​
1875.5​
2022 Australian Open R16​
21.4​
1973.1​
13​
24.2​
1950.9​
1857.4​
1827.4​
1652.8​
1904.2​
1889.2​
1801.8​
2021 Monte Carlo SF​
23.5​
2105.3​
14​
30.5​
1947.5​
1824.0​
1868.0​
1439.8​
1885.7​
1907.8​
1693.7​
2021 Winston-Salem R16​
30.1​
2001.3​
15​
21.2​
1939.4​
1843.7​
1661.7​
1655.9​
1891.5​
1800.5​
1797.7​
2022 Columbus CH QF​
21.2​
1974.2​
 
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Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
ELO 16-30

16​
24.2​
1928.8​
1843.7​
1654.0​
1600.7​
1886.3​
1791.4​
1764.8​
2022 Australian Open R32​
24.2​
1937.1​
17​
21.5​
1927.2​
1812.2​
1652.9​
1670.2​
1869.7​
1790.1​
1798.7​
2022 Australian Open R64​
21.5​
1944.4​
18​
29.4​
1924.3​
1830.4​
1854.7​
1526.0​
1877.4​
1889.5​
1725.2​
2020 Paris R16​
28.2​
1972.9​
19​
22.8​
1912.8​
1802.1​
1713.0​
1667.6​
1857.5​
1812.9​
1790.2​
2020 Auckland R16​
20.7​
1973.2​
20​
25.5​
1910.5​
1750.6​
1800.8​
1513.3​
1830.6​
1855.7​
1711.9​
2022 Australian Open R128​
25.5​
1924.7​
21​
28.4​
1905.5​
1812.8​
1726.6​
1322.6​
1859.1​
1816.0​
1614.0​
2021 Rome R32​
27.7​
1958.3​
22​
31.8​
1900.1​
1810.8​
1805.2​
1628.4​
1855.4​
1852.7​
1764.3​
2016 US Open QF​
26.7​
2210.4​
23​
27.7​
1898.3​
1785.2​
1677.6​
1604.8​
1841.8​
1788.0​
1751.5​
2021 Nur-Sultan QF​
27.6​
1911.4​
24​
26.4​
1898.1​
1760.4​
1810.7​
1575.1​
1829.3​
1854.4​
1736.6​
2021 Vienna R32​
26.2​
1987.1​
25​
30.7​
1892.9​
1807.9​
1723.3​
1521.5​
1850.4​
1808.1​
1707.2​
2014 Canada QF​
23.2​
2090.3​
26​
24.9​
1891.8​
1812.2​
1572.7​
1689.8​
1852.0​
1732.2​
1790.8​
2021 Indian Wells R16​
24.6​
1937.1​
27​
33.3​
1889.8​
1773.3​
1740.0​
1796.0​
1831.6​
1814.9​
1842.9​
2010 Dubai R16​
21.4​
2094.4​
28​
30.6​
1888.7​
1802.8​
1671.5​
1640.2​
1845.7​
1780.1​
1764.4​
2016 Wimbledon SF​
25.5​
2155.9​
29​
25.7​
1886.7​
1793.4​
1747.8​
1705.0​
1840.1​
1817.2​
1795.8​
2018 Paris F​
22.4​
2015.2​
30​
24.7​
1872.9​
1772.2​
1676.4​
1506.5​
1822.5​
1774.7​
1689.7​
2022 Adelaide 2 R16​
24.7​
1901.9​
 
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Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Here we have the yearly Elo, short yELO by the the same author:

Here’s where the ranking/race analogy is useful. The official rankings use a time span of 52 weeks (or more). The race restarts on January 1st. We could do the exact same thing with Elo, throwing away all results from the previous year and starting over, but that would be wasteful–it wouldn’t allow us to take into account whether players had faced particularly easy or tough draws, for instance.

The solution is to set Elo ratings back to zero (or 1500, in Elo parlance) one player at a time.

Take Muguruza. Instead of starting the year with a rating of 1981 and a history of several hundred matches, we pretend to know nothing about her. We give her a newbie’s rating of 1500 and a history of zero matches. Then we run the Elo algorithm to update her rating over the course of her 22 matches.

I call it … yElo

This approach is “Elo for seasons” or “year Elo”–yElo*. It doesn’t have to be limited to calendar years, as the same approach would be useful to comparing, say, 20-match segments. It allows us to take advantage of the Elo algorithm–and the well-informed ratings of other players–to measure partial careers.

Interesting to see how it does compare to the long running ELO. Of course two of the GOATS are missing but it shows how good the current streak is those "unknown" players is. A certain spaniard is unsurprisingly number one. Over the year this will become much more interesting...

yElo 1-30


Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2022-01-31
RankPlayerWinsLossesyElo
1Rafael Nadal1002079.9
2Daniil Medvedev921995.2
3Felix Auger Aliassime731932.7
4Gael Monfils811914.8
5Denis Shapovalov721912.1
6Maxime Cressy1131909.7
7Matteo Berrettini631882.1
8Stefanos Tsitsipas521862.3
9Thanasi Kokkinakis821859.9
10Jannik Sinner711846.3
11Taylor Fritz521839.0
12Daniel Evans621835.1
13Pablo Carreno Busta721829.2
14Roberto Bautista Agut621828.5
15Aslan Karatsev611823.5
16Marin Cilic731820.4
17Alex De Minaur521812.8
18Tomas Machac811806.0
19Taro Daniel821803.3
20Arthur Rinderknech631796.9
21Corentin Moutet731795.8
22Alexander Zverev521783.2
23Karen Khachanov631775.1
24Miomir Kecmanovic421749.3
25Radu Albot621741.9
26Yoshihito Nishioka731737.6
27Ricardas Berankis421733.8
28Reilly Opelka431725.6
29Lorenzo Sonego421720.6
30Tallon Griekspoor311718.8
 
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